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panurge46 wrote:

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He needed help but it was the alliances he set up very early with Sarge, Twila and Julie and the paranoia he stirred in the women that got him to the end.

His alliance with Sarge was a factor of idiotic play from the younger men and irrational behavior from Travis. Chris was Sarge's back-up when the younger guys refused to start playing the game too hard. And Chris didn't do anything to pull in Rory or Travis. They pulled themselves in because of their own fears. Chris was thrown into a great position early on because of the players around him. His alliance with Julie and Twila was what landed him in a 6-4 minority post-merge situation. I'll give him credit for maintaing a bond with Julie, but he was the idiot that went and played that bond unecessarily later in the game. He didn't cause paranoia within the women. Twila was paranoid the whole damn game, and Leann's stupid decision to cut Scout out was what caused the game-changing shift in power. Twila never trusted her alliances and she was close with Scout, so when Scout got the shaft, Twila followed her. And Scout took that chance to better her game position. Chris was just a pawn in that. I do agree that Twila is an overrated player, but I also think Ami, Julie, and Scout were just as capable strategists as Chris was (and perhaps better overall players).

She also saw the flaw in that plan and she reversed the trap, turning Rafe's strategy to her advantage. I'd say that makes her an equally good strategist.

She saw the kind of plays she needed to make to go deeper into the game, but she put all of her faith in the final IC and I do believe her decision to cut Rafe was a last-minute choice, not one she had been planning to do the whole time. Rafe was running the show the whole time, and while he ultimately made a mistake in planning the Final 3 challenge situation, his social and strategic domination more than makes up for that against someone like Danni, who was a decent player who did what she needed to in order to win but failed to really capitalize on her position quite as well as she could have.

Aras recognizing Cirie's usefulness very early on and changing the boot order was very smart.

Not so sure about that. Aras planned to go up against Cirie and lose to her. That's not good play. I don't see why he would want someone with a superior social and strategic game going deep into the season. He respected Cirie and chose to lose to her, he wasn't using her strategy against her. Cirie was a far better player than he was.

He used the shelter building to recognize who had leadership tendencies (Sylvia, Alex, Mookie and Rocky mainly) and who followed directions (Boo, Yau and Cassandra). He used his island explorations to see who would follow him (Dreamz, Erica, Michelle, Stacy and Anthony)

Where in the world did you hear that? If that's actually the case, I'm more than willing to give him credit for it, but it sounds like something that you're just speculating about. Earl found out about early game dynamics through Dreamz, who was already turning on people on Day 1.

His plan never wavered even if he lost many followers along the way.

Earl knew what he was doing. His plan, however, was simply destined to fail. He was setting up the game in a way that guaranteed Yau Man the win. Yau outplayed him at every turn. While Earl was organizing things on Ravu, Yau was positioning himself to have incredible options as the game progressed. While Earl was establishing alliance dynamics, Yau was using those dynamics to his advantage to position himself better than Earl. Losing Michelle hurt Yau's game, not Earl's, because it forced a F4 where Earl could turn on him and Yau could be at risk. So Yau went and countered that by making his car deal with Dreamz. And it absolutely would have worked if things (including the F3 twist) hadn't come together exactly as they did.

Yau wasn't bad but his strategy revolved too much around the HII. Earl had plans with and without the idol, making him better.

Thanks to some snooping from Alex/Mookie, Yau had to work around the HII, whereas Earl was free to have the benefit of the HII without the risk. Not that it was a problem for Yau - he kept people at bay and correctly determined the point when fear of the HII would make him a target. Earl had no idea how to play that, and Yau did. But even when you take away that front of the game and simply concentrate on how things were planned out, Yau has the advantage. Because Earl's plans, while decent, almost guaranteed Yau would win. And Yau knew that. And that's why Yau was the better player. Not only did he understand the HII better than Earl, his plans were far better and he countered every attempt Earl made to help his own position.

The best player has won this game 5 times: Borneo, Australia, Thailand, Palau, and Cook Islands.