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Okay, I adjusted the report cards, since that was bothering people so much. Also a disclaimer for those who didn't know:

Just because I ranked a winner low on the list doesn't mean I think they were simply "lucky" or bad players. I respect all the winners and think they were the most deserving best players of their respective seasons. For the most part, if they're in the same tier, they're all about the same level to me in my mind

Also added some luck factors that some people mentioned for some of the individuals



Warning: This is long-winded, highly comprehensive, micro-analytic, and very nerdy. But hey, you’re reading, and I assume you care

The “Rank the Winners” post got me thinking of who the best winners were. I knew who I liked, but I was wondering who really played the best game, and who could reproduce their results in multiple contexts and situations. For the most part, ranking winners is non-quantifiable and subjective based on personal winner criteria and biases. That being said, I’m going to give MY opinion based on what I believe are relatively objective standards

Disclaimer: I don’t have insider info on the majority of seasons. I only know what the episodes showed themselves. So feel free to report any incorrect facts or conclusions I’ve made, and I’ll adjust my opinions accordingly



First off, to determine what makes the “best winner,” you have to understand what makes a contestant a winner. The following is my criteria for being a winner. If you don’t agree, that’s fine. Obviously, we automatically won’t be coming to the same conclusions. I’d still like to know your criteria though. If you do agree, we still might not come to the same conclusions, and I’d also like to know why

Most people cite things like: social game, strategy, physical prowess, game control, etc. to be the determinants of being a winner. While, I agree to an extent, I don’t think all of them are the #1 priorities. The #1 factor in determining who’s a winner is LUCK. We all hate that fact and hate to acknowledge it, but it’s true. There’s that saying: “It’s better lucky than good”. HOWEVER, the #2 factor in determining winners is the ability to manage one’s personal luck (non-luck based skill). My definition of luck:

Luck = Opportunity + Preparation

Preparation (or one’s skill set) determines how an individual can mitigate bad luck and capitalize on opportunities (good luck). So,

Winning = Luck + Skill Set

When ranking winners, I try to determine who won mainly from skill versus who mainly won from luck. It can be tough, because sometimes winners win by lots of luck, BUT it doesn’t mean they couldn’t have won with their skills and a different adversity ratio. 1 thing I liked about All-Stars (which I know old fans hated) was that it showed me how contestants handled different contexts where many of them automatically had lots of bad luck (AKA being huge targets). None of the previous winners made it to the merge, which tells me that they didn’t have amazing skill that could overcome any and all odds. They might’ve had lots of skill, great skills, etc. but not winning skills that could thrive in any situation. Will Kirby from Big Brother demonstrated that not all winners are automatically dead coming into a game—although most times, they pretty much are

Examples of the LUCK FACTOR:
(1) The quantity and quality of your opponents
(2) Interpersonal compatibility that can’t be overcome by good social skills
(3) Tribal composition
(4) Completely new twists (i.e. Outcasts, Thailand’s mutiny, Africa’s tribal switch, etc.)
(5) Random Tie-Breakers = The Purple Rock mostly
(6) The environment one plays at (Australia vs. Cook Islands)
(7) The challenges and their timing of their appearance
(8) The timing of being sent to Exile Island to get the Hidden Immunity Idol
(9) Jury members that a contestant had absolutely no control in determining





Okay, so what skill sets make a winner?
(1) Jury Management
(A) Pre-Jury Management
(B) Final TC Jury Management
(2) Outlasting
(A) Outplaying
(B) Outwitting



(1) Jury Management
(a) #1 priority is making sure you have the majority of jury votes. Winning by a lot is nice, but isn’t necessary. Voting majority (nice to win by a lot, but all you need is majority)
(b) Most jury members have made up their mind before the final TC even begins
(c) Gameplay style—HOW you OUTPLAY, OUTWIT, OUTLAST determines jury opinion

(1A) Pre-Jury Management
(a) Your ability to determine who is on the jury. This is done by through game control
(b) Your ability to assess the future jury
(c) The way you altered your gameplay style to match the jury’s tastes
(d) The bonds you made with the jury are the parts where you can control your fate

(1B) Final Jury
The ability to sway votes at Final TC through speech or answers to jury questions. Dependent largely on one’s communication skills, psychological assessments, manipulative ability, presentation, social tact, emotional management skills, and preparation



(2) Outlasting = Making final jury (top 2 or top 3)
(a) Outlasting = Voting control
(b) Outlasting > Outwitting > Outplaying. Outwit and outplaying are ultimately less essential components than outlasting. You can win by only outlasting, but not only outwitting or only outplaying
(c) 1 thing all the winners have in common is that they OUTLASTED, not OUTPLAYED the best or OUTWITTED the best
(d) However, to outlast, you often NEED to outwit and/or outplay

(2A) Outplaying
(a) Voting numbers advantage
(b) Alliances
(c) The ability to execute one’s strategy and plans
(d) Rational decision-making
(e) Charisma
(f) Trust acquisition
(g) Coalition building
(h) Winning immunity
(i) Hidden immunity idol
(j) Working relationships
(k) Staying healthy = No bodily malfunctions or injuries
(l) Not quitting
(m) etc.

(2A) Outwitting
(a) Strategy = Game theory and number crunching
(b) Planning = Long-term and short-term; grasping opponent psychology and strategy
(c) Manipulation
(d) Persuasiveness
(e) Target formation
(f) Sandbagging = Making yourself a non-threat by throwing challenges, acting stupid, or seeming predictable by employing game integrity
(g) Flying-under-the-radar = Same as sandbagging, but actually being those things as opposed to faking it. Being so obviously weak that you’re strong basically
(h) Scapegoating
(i) Information Management = Quantity and quality of information; knowledge is power; requires working relationships, open communication, an information network, and observation skills. Also includes misinformation (i.e. lying ability, cover stories, etc.)
(j) etc.





With this criteria in mind, I came up with the following winners ranking:
1. Yul Kwon
2. Sandra Diaz-Twine
3. Jenna Morasca
4. Danni Boatwright

5. Tom Westman
6. Amber Mariano
7. Aras Baskauskas
8. Chris Daughtery
9. Vecepia Towery

10. Brian Heidik
11. Tina Wesson
12. Richard Hatch
13. Ethan Zohn

The main factors I used in determining this order:
(1) How much the winners dictated their own victory, and how much did they luck out?
(2) What type of competition the winners had
(3) If they did All-Stars, I assessed their performance on both seasons

Generally speaking, the winners of the latest seasons have had the most competition. Naturally, most contestants are familiar with past seasons, so everyone is pretty smart now. Contestants of earlier seasons, obviously were much more naïve. This isn’t to take away from the victories of early winners like Richard and Tina. Hatch was a genius for his time, and deserves respect for the mark he made on the game. However, as All-Stars demonstrated, once everyone had gotten smarter, the winners weren’t anything special and couldn’t compete against modern threats. Since this is a comparison BETWEEN different seasons, we’re forced to subject past winners to the most current and best standards right?

Brian, Tina, Hatch, and Ethan are in the lowest tier, because they had a lot of luck combined with some of the weakest Survivor competition ever. Those in the middle tier had decent competition overall. Those in the top tier had the toughest competition overall in both quantity and quality. In addition, Sandra, Jenna, and Danni won the most decisively of all the winners in Survivor history losing only 1 vote on the final jury. Their competition was not weak at all either. Yul is also in that group, because although his victory was narrow, he won against 2 other people, and 1 of them was probably the most challenge-dominant individual in Survivor history. Like the Pearl Islands, Amazon, and Guatemala; Cook Islands had strong competitors. Tom also made the upper tier, but without all the luck that he ended up having, it’s doubtful he would’ve won

It’s plausible that players who won Survivor against weaker competition could’ve thrived against stronger competition, in which case they should be ranked higher. However, since I don’t have such data at my disposal, I must assess them from what I have seen from them. A more detailed analysis of each winner, their game, and their season follows below:





1. Richard Hatch

A. Good Luck
(1) Environment allowed him to use providing abilities
(2) Fortunate to find similar-minded allies on tribe
(3) Isolated and loyal Rudy
(4) Naïve Opponents = free ride to final 5
(5) Sean’s alphabet voting system ensured Pagong dominance, while also saving Hatch, who was the secondary target that council
(6) Sue and Kelly’s rift = free ride to final 3

B. Bad Luck
(1) Age disadvantage
(2) Homosexual disadvantage

C. Jury Management (4-7)
(1) Persuaded jury to vote rationally and game-based
(2) Viewed as a strategic mastermind & Pagong alliance leader
(3) Throwing the final challenge kept Rudy’s winning vote intact

D. Voting Control
(1) #1 provider earned him respect, early safety on Pagong, and Rudy
(2) Helped formed Survivor’s 1st alliance which controlled early-mid game
(3) Fooled Tagi & Sean long enough to gain voting advantage
(4) Never had complete control of his own Pagong alliance
(5) Almost got votes tied up in episode 9 and 13
(6) Had basically guaranteed his way into the final 2 at final 3

E. Skill sets
(1) Best asset was staying focused and realizing Survivor is a game
(2) 2nd best skill was being a provider
(3) Decent social game. His arrogance annoyed people, but he had working relationships
(4) Demonstrated versatility in All-Stars and attempted to be a dynamic non-threat. However, he remained targeted and his plan backfired, because he hadn’t cultivated any allies. 1st won voted off on his tribe

F. Skill set grade
(1) Survival* = A
(2) Strategy = C
(3) Social = C
(4) Challenge = C

*Survival = Refers to making fire, catching fish, etc. NOT game outlasting ability



2. Tina Wesson
A. Good Luck
(1) Being on the same tribe as Jerri
(a) Targeted Kel. Old females are most vulnerable at the very beginning. The more time that passes, the stronger opponents they become. Jerri inadvertently made Tina a powerhouse
(b) Indirectly revealed boot order at 2nd tribal council. This gave Tina the heads-up (and Tina was smart enough to form an alliance with Keith and Colby)
(c) Annoying and threatening. Really helped Tina bond with Elisabeth and Rodger, and strengthened “good people”
bond
(2) Colby = Tool; he misjudged jury mentality and Tina as a threat
(3) Pre-votes & vote leak which got Mitchell & Jeff eliminated; Tina capitalized on these opportunities but did not create them herself
(4) Mike Skupin falling into the fire
(a) Likely saved Ogakor extermination
(5) Rodger & Elisabeth
(a) The 2 were a bit naïve and non-game focused
(b) Naturally compatible with Tina

B. Bad Luck
(1) Age disadvantage on a young tribe

C. Jury Management (4/7)
(1) Humble and tactful game-based speech; I notice that Amber gave a similar speech in All-Stars
(2) Viewed as a strategic mastermind
(3) Jerri voted against Coby, not really for Tina

D. Voting Control
(1) Went with majority for Kel & Maralyn boots
(2) Realized position and sided with Keith & Colby to oust Mitchell
(3) Bonded and manipulated Rodger, Elizabeth, & Colby into making non-rational game decisions in her favor
(4) Betraying Amber was a calculated risk that paid off

E. Skill sets
(1) Versatile social skills. However, her reputation as a social game genius died in All-Stars. She couldn’t persuade Rupert or Rudy, who are both supposedly big on integrity, to get rid of Jerri over her! She’s still great at sales, but not out-of-this-world apparently
(2) Demonstrated awareness in both seasons
(3) Strategic planner. Any potential reputation as a strategic genius died in All-Stars. She had a huge target on her as a winner, but she could have maneuvered herself into an alliance with Rupert and Rudy earlier. She didn’t attempt to make one until it was too late. She’s still a good strategist though, just not a distinct one
(4) Persuasive
(5) Has inherent severe early game weakness as a weak challenger. She was the 1st boot of All-Stars, since she was a worthless tool, and the now competent players knew it. It proved that she’ll thrive when underestimated, but fails under adversity as an actual target

F. Skill set grade
(1) Survival = C
(2) Strategy = B
(3) Social = B
(4) Challenge = D



3. Ethan Zohn

A. Good Luck
(1) Compatibility with the Boran males who were put on his tribe
(2) Clarence’s food greediness which made him an outsider
(3) Samburu implosion which gave Boran strategic advantage at the tribal switch
(4) Brandon’s incompatibility with Frank which caused him to backstab the Samburu coup, which SAVED Lex and thus spared Ethan, Tom, and Kim from becoming the strategic minority. This would have likely ended Ethan’s game, and he did nothing to make these turn of events happen
(5) Ethan was basically carried into the final 4, because his opponents sucked
(a) Tom made himself too golden on the jury, so he was booted instead of Ethan or Lex. Kim J. won immunity, so she’s the 1 who made this possible. The original plan was to boot Kim
(b) Kim J. took Ethan to the final 2, because she as an emotional decision-maker. Lex was too dislikable to her and won too many challenges, and she didn’t think she could win no matter who she took to the final jury

B. Bad Luck = None really. Everything went his way that I can think of. He had no real strategic adversity happen to him

C. Jury Management (5/7)
(1) Had everyone’s (but Kim & Kelly) votes before going into Final TC, but mainly because Kim J. was totally pathetic in the jury’s eyes
(2) Gave 1 of the worst final TC performances, when he offended Brandon during Q&A period and actually LOST his vote

D. Voting Control
(1) Controlled early and mid-boots with Boran boys club alliance
(2) Almost lost control of game at Kelly boot, and would’ve been in the minority but was saved by Brandon
(3) Continued to Pagong Samburu with Boran alliance
(4) Didn’t have direct control over last 2 votes
(a) Kim would’ve been eliminated, but she won last 2 immunities
(b) It’s possible he threw the last 2 challenges on purpose, in which case I’d say he had control over events and was strategic. Otherwise, he seems like an incredibly lucky winner

E. Skill set
(1) Average in challenges. Not really an alpha male in either seasons. He consistently lost to Lex and Tom in Africa. He did well on 1 challenge for Saboga in All-Stars. However, he also lost one for his tribe for stupidity. He also lost a challenge for Mogo-Mogo for untying knots slower than
Rob Mariano. The main reason he survived as long as he did was he was the only alpha male on a weak Saboga
(2) Failed as provider in All-Stars
(3) If he had any other skill, it’d be social skills, but I didn’t see anything special in either Africa or All-Stars. Demonstrated limited persuasiveness. He failed to convince Rupert to save Tina even with the lure of a 4-unit alliance and failed to save himself when Lex said he was cutting him loose in All-Stars
(4) Strategically, he is average. He tends to rely on male alliances to carry him, although this failed him in All-Stars. Although people don’t think of him this way, his other main strategy is flying under-the-radar. He outlasted Hatch & Colby on Mogo Mogo by being a useful voting pawn. In Africa, being UTR got him the W. In All-Stars though, he was
automatically on the radar as a winner, plus Lex knew his game. Other than riding coattails, he’s never had a proactive strategy

F. Skill set grade
(1) Survival = B
(2) Strategy = C
(3) Social = C
(4) Challenge = C



4. Vecepia Towery

A. Good Luck
(1) Maraamu leadership power struggle kept her off the chopping block at a crucial time given her position as a middle-aged female ethnic minority. The more time that passes, the more she becomes a powerhouse
(2) Had Sean’s African-American loyalty
(3) Purple Rock eliminated Paschal
(4) The tribal switch might be considered good luck, because Rotu felt much
more betrayed by Neleh, which basically gave Vecepia the win

B. Bad Luck
(1) Being a middle-aged female ethnic minority makes you a potential early target
(2) Rotu dominance
(3) Tribal switch. Before that, she had majority power on Maraamu
C. Jury Management
(1) Game-based speech helped her win indifferent jury votes over Neleh
(2) Many votes were against Neleh, because of the supposed hypocrisy of being religiously moral while lying and backstabbing Rotu during the game, and the fact that Neleh started playing the game late
(3) Making a final 2 deal with Neleh, likely lost Kathy’s vote actually. She probably would’ve been taken no matter what anyways

D. Voting Control
(1) Caught on the outside with Sean after the 1st vote
(2) Gained majority by joining Sean and Rob & Sarah and booting Patricia
(3) Booted potential strong competitor Hunter at the 3rd vote
(4) Lost control due to bad luck and being in the minority, but adapted, floated, and kissed ass for the Gabriel and Rob boots
(5) Joined non-Rotu 4 and eliminated that alliance
(6) Tried to save Sean over Neleh, but was unable to persuade Kathy
(7) Won immunity and maintained a working relationship with Kathy, saving
her at the voting tie, which ultimately lead to Paschal’s ouster
(8) Dictated final 3 decision
(a) Had a Final 2 deal with Kathy going into the Final 3
(b) Gave Neleh final immunity after a Final 2 agreement; likely going to be taken by Neleh anyways since Kathy was best liked on the jury

E. Skill Sets
(1) Demonstrated clear versatility, openness, floating ability, and social skills
(2) Had plenty of working relationships
(3) Was relatively aware (switched gears after 1st episode and Rotu 4 Pagonging) and worked numbers
(4) Seen as “weak” but won key challenges, and used immunity idol as strategic leverage (with Kathy)
(5) Smart enough to let expendable allies go (Rob) and float with majority
(6) Able and willing to make the tough rational decisions

F. Skill Set Grade
(1) Survival = C
(2) Strategy = B
(3) Social = C
(4) Challenge = C



5. Brian Heidik
A. Good Luck
(1) Sook Jai’s strong challenge competitors were idiots and eliminated early
(2) Sook Jai implosion led them to throw a challenge to cut Jed
(3) Chuay Gahn’s had majority advantage at the merge
(4) Ghandia killed potential alliance with Ted, weakening Chuay Gahn females and Ted
(5) Shii Ann’s merge mistake spared Brian from the same maneuvering she did in All-Stars and potentially different results
(6) Helen, Jan, and Ted were total tools
(a) Ted had an irrational game trust for Brian as mentioned above
(b) Helen had an irrational game trust for Brian simply because he worked hard around camp
(c) Jan was isolated politically by the men and Helen (who made her an outsider when she voted against Ghandia out to Jan’s surprise). Instead of thinking long-term, she ended up being a short-term thinking pawn
(7) Final 2 opponent Clay sucks
(a) Ted wasn’t compatible with Clay, so by default, he trusted the other male—Brian. He also trusted Helen when she told him that Clay made racist comments about him. If he did, Survivor did not ever show them on TV, and even Probst mentioned this lack of critical thinking and blind following at the finale
(b) Clay’s reputation as a lazy, pathetic, small, stupid redneck made it difficult for his fellow tribemates to respect him and admit that he outplayed them
B. Bad Luck = Brian faced virtually zero strategic adversity. I can’t think of anything
C. Jury Management
(1) Manipulated Chuay Gahn and mitigated Helen & Ted’s anger at him
(a) Deflected Helen & Ted’s anger with cover story
(b) Understood Chuay Gahn psychology and pushed his work ethic which was Clay’s biggest fault
(2) Totally pissed off and lost Sook Jai’s votes
(a) Ken called Heidik out for his lies, but Ted and Helen are tools
(b) Didn’t even attempt to bond with Sook Jai
(3) Votes were anti-Clay, more than pro-Brian
(a) Clay lost Helen’s vote when he didn’t respect her jury question
(b) Clay lost Chuay Gahn votes, because he was lazy
(c) Clay had blown up at Jake and offended him

D. Voting Control
(1) Bonded with males and controlled Chuay Gahn after Ghandia’s boot
(2) Gained tribe control after Ted’s boot, since he had an exclusive alliance with Clay, and was able to manipulate both Helen and Jan who didn’t work together
(3) Had immunity for the last 3 boots

E. Skill sets
(1) Best skill was his social skills. He didn’t bond with Sook Jai at all, so I can’t give him an A. However, he was a very good liar and manipulator
(2) Rational decision-maker
(3) Controlled end-game and left multiple strategic options open

F. Skill Set Grade
(1) Survival = B
(2) Strategy = C
(3) Social = B
(4) Challenge = B



6. Jenna Morasca

A. Good Luck
(1) Gender split probably enhanced her long-term power. Putting the guys on an all-male tribe, made them value females much more, and even more willing to ally with the good-looking girls
(2) Annoying and stupid Roger took control of the males at Tambaqui
(3) Compatibility with Young Jamburu & Deena = Alliance
(4) Tribal switch led to strong allies. The instant compatibility was lucky
(5) Boys didn't boot her instead of Heidi when she had her breakdown. However, one can argue that this demonstrates her voting control, because she had positioned herself as UTR or more disliked better than Heidi despite having won more individual immunities

B. Bad Luck
(1) Jenna was initially on all-female Jamburu, which was bad since it meant she couldn’t use some of her strongest assets (like looks, flirting, etc.)
(2) Had some tough competition, especially gameplayer Rob Cesternino

C. Jury Management
(1) Game-based speech didn’t piss the jury off, while Matthew’s integrity talk turned everyone off
(2) Respected as a player and underdog
(3) Well-liked by the jury too
(4) Seen as clearly superior to Matthew

D. Voting Control (6/7)
(1) Christy voted against her in the 1st boot
(2) Joined majority alliance on Jaburu
(3) Joined majority alliance on Neo-Jaburu
(4) Part of Jacare’s majority alliance of which controlled first 3 merge boots
(5) Lost control and was on the outside of majority alliance for the rest of the
game (4 boots)
(6) Had a working relationship with Rob, and outlasted Christy and Heidi
(7) Spared self by winning last 2 immunities and the Christy boot (would’ve been her probably)
(8) Dictated finale competitor by winning final immunity

E. Skill sets
(1) Was probably 1 of the worst winners in terms of surviving ability. She had a physical breakdown and was thinking of quitting or being voted off. In addition, she was lazier and more useless than the average Survivor on both Amazon and All-Stars, relying perhaps too heavily on her social bonds
(2) Didn’t handle adversity well in some cases. She was initially pissed and emotional at Rob after he backstabbed her. She’s lucky he’s a rational gameplayer
(3) Loyalty to friends didn’t make her very flexible strategically, but ended up being an extremely good calculated risk. Her loyalty made her well-liked, and gave her a decisive victory. She is 1 of the few people to play a
fairly straight-up and loyal game and win
(4) Her strength is her social skills. She got along well with both males and females, working her way into several majority alliances. Her good looks and flirting ability definitely helped complement her abilities. The only reason why I can’t give her an A was because she didn’t treat the outsiders very well and that almost cost her the game. In All-Stars, she
seemed to have a female alliance going
(5) For the most part, she had a good game frame and relative awareness
(6) Strategically, she played rather simply. Join majority alliance, stay loyal, and fly-under-the-radar. She seemed to be doing the same thing in All-Stars. Her biggest flaw (which ended up working out in her favor) was
trusting Dave too easily and leaking Jaburu info at the tribal switch

F. Skill Set Grade
(1) Survival = D
(2) Strategy = C
(3) Social = B
(4) Challenge = B



7. Sandra Diaz-Twine
A. Good Luck
(1) Rupert
(a) Drake dominance
(b) Loyal to allies
(c) Distracting target
(2) Not caught for Fishgate, because Christa got accused
(3) Able to utilize Spanish-speaking skills at game start was huge, because it made her a valuable resource at a critical time. As a weak female competitor, her biggest danger comes at the start of the game, but she
gets stronger UTR power as time goes on
(4) Outcast twist helped kill Morgan (Lil)
(5) Jon & Lil
(a) Sandra benefited from Fairplay’s strategy and game control
(b) Opponent incompatibility between Jon’s disrespect and evil gameplay and Lil’s sense of integrity + Lil’s final challenge victory got Sandra the win

B. Bad Luck
(1) Ethnic Minority
(2) Outcast Twist brought Burton back and really altered the game
C. Jury Management
(1) Up-front game-based speech; “As Long As It’s Not Me” was respected by the jury
(2) Many votes were against Outcast Lil

D. Voting Control (6/7)
(1) Formed majority with Jon, Christa, Trish, and Rupert
(2) Stayed loyal to Rupert with Christa and flipped script on Jon and Trish
(3) Solid alliance with Rupert and Christa eliminated Shawn
(4) Balboa majority (Drake + Outcasts) eliminated Andrew and Ryan
(5) New Balboa majority (Morgan + Outcasts) eliminates Rupert, making Sandra and Christa the minority; she voted against rational Fairplay
(6) Completely saved Christa and herself, by making Tijuana and Burton the top targets, by revealing key info to Morgan and dealing with Fairplay
(7) No control; new majority (Outcasts + Fairplay) eliminate Christa
(8) Females get together and boot Burton; completely avoids being targeted
(9) Completely avoids being targeted again and eliminates Darrah threat
(10) Had no real control over final challenge but wasn’t offensive like Fairplay

E. Skill sets
(1) Sandra is an interesting strategic evaluation. On the 1 hand, she’s not a long-term planner, so she benefited from good luck and underestimation. However, in most of the cases, she was surprisingly in control of the boots if one looks at her voting control. Since her strength was being UTR, she used that to her full advantage, taking out the right individuals and setting up others as targets. Her #1 priority was, “As long as it’s not me” philosophy which is smart, because too many times, Survivors think too long-term and screw themselves, because they don't keep things simple. Instead she kept things simple
(2) At the same time, she was proactive when she needed to. The best example was booting Tijuana over Burton on episode 11, while simultaneously setting Darrah up. At the time, I did not understand this. However, this move simultaneously eliminated a potential power duo (Morgan alliance), a potential UTR floater (Tijuana), kept big targets in
the game (Burton), and set Darrah up as a target. Also, her non-emotional, business-style of playing earned her the long-term respect of the jury
(3) She also stayed ethnically consistent in the game, playing dirty against dirty players (Fairplay), while staying loyal to players who valued integrity (Rupert), showing her versatility and ability to adjust her gameplay style accordingly. If she had to, she was willing to flip on Rupert eventually
(4) In terms of social skills, she wasn’t socially tactful all the time, but she was respected for straight-shooting. She had plenty of working relationships at all times and could be fairly persuasive. 1 of her smartest game moves was the innovative sneaking around trick, that really helped change the game up. She also kept her mouth shut when Christa was blamed for Fishgate

F. Skill Set Grade
(1) Survival = C
(2) Strategy = B
(3) Social = B
(4) Challenge = C



8. Amber Mariano

A. Good Luck
(1) On the same tribe as Rob Mariano
(2) Non-Notable reputation = Underestimated target
(3) Chaperan dominance
(4) Jenna Morasca quitting
(5) Rob’s Influence Over Lex & Kathy (Pre-Existing Friendship)
(6) Carried by “Stupid, Stupid” Chaboga-Mogo (especially Rob)
(7) Threat of Purple Rock helped influence Jenna to betray Rupert

B. Bad Luck
(1) Sue Hawk quitting
(2) Tribal Switch = Only Chaperan sent to Mogo-Mogo

C. Jury Management
(1) Tactful jury speech; admitted she was lucky and rode coattails. Speech and answers were tailored to jury, because she mentioned in post-game interviews that contestants would talk about how they hated when
winners didn’t acknowledge the role of luck
(2) Majority of votes were against Rob, because of his dirty gameplay
(3) Treated Shii Ann like a human while everyone else on Chaboga-Mogo ignored her, earning her respect and the winning vote

D. Voting Control (4/7)
(1) Invited into a primary alliance with Rob
(2) Formed Chaperan core majority with Tom which booted Cesternino
(3) No direct control over first 7/8 boots, but had impact via tribe immunity
(4) Outlasted Jerri by persuading Mogo-Mogo to flip using logic and Rob
(5) Formed Chaboga-Mogo majority
(a) Had a pre-existing Chapera alliance with Tom and Alicia
(b) Formed an alliance with Jenna and Rupert with Rob
(c) Was willing to go with Lex, Kathy, and Tom, but Rob convinced her to stick with Chapera
(d) Dictated first 5 merge boots
(6) Persuaded Jenna to turn on Rupert by appealing to her greed and logic
(7) Ultimately guaranteed into final 2 once Jenna was eliminated

E. Skill Set
(1) Great social game and well-liked by everyone in both her seasons. She also seduced Rob! She was the one shown doing the sales pitch to Jenna and Rupert on allying with her and Rob. She also seemed to have a working relationship with Tom and Alicia as well, so she didn’t simply ride Rob’s coat-tails
(2) Showed true gamesmanship when she got screwed at tribal switch and
successfully persuaded Chaboga Mogo to keep her over Jerri
(3) Flew under the radar and let Rob control the game
(4) Understood jury mentality
(5) Never a weak link in challenges
(6) Strategically, I’d say Rob ran the show. He was the one who convinced her to stick with Chaboga-Mogo instead of Lex, Kathy, and Tom. However, her simple strategy of playing good cop with Rob, earned her the million, because she made a good choice in picking her partner. Her strategy in both seasons is to be a loyal ally to a powerful, less likeable individual. In in All-Stars, she improved upon this, by adding extension alliances and with Rob became a floating partnership (Rob’s shady experience largely helped here)

F. Skill Set Grade
(1) Survival = C
(2) Strategy = C
(3) Social = A
(4) Challenge = C



9. Chris Daugherty

A. Good Luck
(1) Compatible with Elder Lopevi who outnumbered Young Lopevi
(2) Eliza = outcasted + willing to make strategic moves(3) Leann boot opportunity. The loved one challenge helped Alinta have pity for Chris and the girls got soft. Then, Twila hand-fed Chris the strategy to flip

B. Bad Luck
(1) Smart, female power opponents (especially Ami)
(2) Tribal switch led to 2 smart, secret opponents (especially Julie) infiltrating Lopevi

C. Jury Management
(1) Deflected anger from Lea (Sarge), Julie, and Eliza
(2) Many votes were against abrasive Twila
(3) Underdog

D. Voting Control (5/7)
(1) Formed majority alliance on Lopevi with the old guys booting all 4 young
guys, who’d probably be large threats later on
(2) Lost all control on Alinta at Rory’s boot
(3) Voted with majority at Lea’s (Sarge) boot
(4) Voted against majority at Chad’s boot
(5) Took advantage of an opportunity to ally with Eliza and Twila & Scout, and became Alinta’s majority at Leann’s boot; alliance with Eliza made Scout the back-up target
(6) Set-up Eliza by booting Julie; pitted Twila against Eliza (controlling vote)
(7) Controlled final 2 votes, because he won immunity

E. Skill Sets
(1) Strategically, Chris understood basic numbers, think rationally, and how to float with the power. Despite crappy performance on 1st challenge, managed to outlast young guys and form Lopevi’s majority alliance. He also outlasted Lopevi on Alinta as the last guy standing, and his vote
against Sarge instead of Julie or Eliza likely helped his position. Chris knew how to fly under the radar and become a non-target, despite the fact that he was a male challenge threat. He never lost focus, didn’t get cocky once he had power, and pitted the females against one another
(younger girls versus older women—especially Twila and Eliza) to distract them from himself
(2) His strength was his social game. He seemed to read the females very well and play their emotions, best evidenced at the final tribal council. He got the females to sympathize with him, giving him the winning opportunity he needed to flip the power of the game. He was able to make the tough rational decisions and then mitigate hurt feelings
(3) He demonstrated persuasiveness, some charisma, and had working relationships
(4) In terms of awareness, he was out-of-the-loop at times and had some verbal slips that could’ve cost him. Overall, no huge mistakes though

F. Skill Set Grade
(1) Survival = C
(2) Strategy = B
(3) Social = A
(4) Challenge = B



10. Tom Westman

A. Good Luck
(1) On Koror with most of his early allies
(2) Compatible with Jenn & Gregg
(3) Ulong sucking; at least, they sucked at the worst timing possible
(4) Jeff Wilson, possibly Ulong’s last hope, rolling his ankle and essentially
quitting
(5) Koror Dominance
(6) Ian’s sense of integrity and bond

B. Bad Luck
(1) Somewhat forced into stepping up as a leader
(2) Age minority

C. Jury Management
(1) Highly respected for tribe leadership and relative integrity
(2) Katie was seen as a pathetic opponent for her poor treatment of certain tribe members, laughable tribe contributions, and reactive gameplay

D. Voting Control (6/7)
(1) Indirect influence over 8 Koror boots, by leading Ulong to sweep
(2) In Ulong majority alliance with Ian, Katie, Jennifer, and Gregg
(a) Katie was secretly working with Jennifer and Gregg
(b) Determined Coby, Janu, and Stephenie’s boots
(3) Gregg is ousted
(a) Reward jealousy shakes up Ulong dominating alliance
(b) Caryn and Ian inform Tom of Gregg and Jennifer threat
(c) Tom is willing to take tie risk
(4) Wins the final 3 immunities
(a) Keeps gentleman’s agreement with Ian, and Katie goes with Ian
(b) Votes for Ian to leave, but Ian wins tie-breaker against Jen
(c) Ian gives final immunity up to Tom and tells him to take Katie

E. Skill Sets
(1) On first instinct, I thought Tom was a very lucky winner. I felt Ian basically just gave him the game. While, I feel Tom was lucky that Ian broke down, I now feel he had a large influence on Ian as well. Tom’s gameplay was to bully people with threats and intimidation, and he did the same to Ian. First, Tom had gained Ian’s respect and they had
created a bond. So Tom deserves credit for having an emotional hold on Ian in the 1st place. Then, Tom was a good verbal analyst who picked up on Ian’s careless remarks and correctly identified the subtext of Ian’s statements. By calling Ian out on his deceit multiple times, it led to Ian’s
psychological breakdown, which culminated on the maddening final endurance challenge where a guilt-ridden Ian decided he’d rather quit and come away with a friendship then potentially lose everything. So while Tom was lucky Ian was a weak opponent (psychologically and emotionally), he did make a lot of his own success happen
(2) In terms of social skills, he didn’t endear himself to certain contestants. He also lacked social tact and persuasive skills in several instances
(3) Strategically, he was very simple and a bit naïve. His best move was allying with Ian and Katie. He would’ve been blindsided, if it wasn’t for Ian’s jealousy at 1 of the rewards and Caryn’s help. While not strategically flexible, his game integrity and relative predictability paid off with his alliance
(4) His greatest strength was his challenge dominance, which opened up many strategic opportunities. However, compared to other seasons, he had relatively little challenge competition, so his dominance should be taken with a grain of salt
(5) Alpha male status earned him respect and long-term positioning

F. Skill Set Grade
(1) Survival = B
(2) Strategy = C
(3) Social = B
(4) Challenge = A



11. Danni Boatwright

A. Good Luck
(1) Dysfunctional Neo-Nakum (Jamie & Judd) helped further her game
(2) Compatibility with Rafe helped win her the game
(3) Rafe & Stephenie’s Stupidity
(a) Unnecessary Backstabbing
(b) Cindy (Car Curse) & Lydia Boots Over Danni
(c) Not realizing how big of a threat Danni was
(4) Immunity Challenge Advantage Opportunity

B. Bad Luck
(1) Nakum Merge Advantage

C. Jury Management
(1) Well liked by the jury
(2) Underdog
(3) Many votes were against Stephanie

D. Voting Control (6/7)
(1) Went with former Nakum to boot Blake over Brian, likely earning Gary and Amy’s trust in the process
(2) Non-formal Yaxha majority with Gary, Bobby Jon, and Brandon booted Brian and Amy
(3) Became a minority at merge
(a) On the outside of the first 2 merge boots—Brandon & Bobby Jon
(b) Floated with Neo-Nakum which booted Jamie and Gary
(4) Formed new Xhakum majority (Danni, Rafe, and Stephenie)
(a) Bonded with Rafe after Gary’s ouster
(b) Won a crucial immunity which led to Judd’s boot
(c) Cindy and Lydia
(5) Won final immunity and dictated final opponent

E. Skill Set
(1) Strategically, she kept things simple, but played her roles well. She made good decisions in picking allies (Gary and Rafe), acquired their trust, used them, and then cut them loose. She was also a strong female challenge competitor who knew when to fly under-the-radar. Her best
strength was identifying power and then siding with it a make people think it was non-strategic and personal. I also wouldn’t be surprised if she threw some challenges to stay under-the-radar
(2) She played a good social game. She was well-liked and respected by everyone and managed to work her way into a majority alliance despite being a threat!
(3) She had her game-frame on and made the rational decision (determining the final 2) when she had to

F. Skill Set Grade
(1) Survival = C
(2) Strategy = B
(3) Social = A
(4) Challenge = C



12. Aras Baskauskas
A. Good Luck
(1) Shane’s Casaya Alliance
(2) Cerie (especially after he initially outcasted her)
(3) Casaya Dominance
(4) Casaya Loyalty (Bruce’s Non-Flipping & Dani’s Final Decision)
(5) Bruce’s health problems which led to him quitting. Having to go to 1 more tribal council would’ve likely revealed the power structure more. Or it would’ve been 1 more chance for Terry to lose an immunity challenge,
in which case Aras would’ve been the #1 immunity deflect victim
(6) Terry being stupid with the immunity idol & challenge dominance

B. Bad Luck
(1) Being the #1 target of an immunity idol deflection, because he’s the tribe alpha male

C. Jury Management
(1) Many votes were against a lazy Danielle
(2) Respected for some tribe leadership & challenge prowess

D. Voting Control (5/7)
(1) Joined Casaya majority alliance with Danielle, Courtney, and Shane
(2) Helped contribute to Casaya unity and dominance
(3) Joined alliance with Cirie and Danielle to boot Courtney and Shane
(4) Helped save himself by winning immunity; tried to save Cirie, but she ended up losing tie-breaker to Danielle
(5) Lost direct control of final vote, because Dani won immunity; however, she ended up taking him anyways fearing Casaya revenge

E. Skill set
(1) Made a good decision to abandon first tribe for new group
(2) Worked hard to keep tribe unified and victorious
(3) Condescending and non-tactful at times, but overall decent social skills
(4) In terms of strategy, he misjudged Bruce’s loyalty. If he’d gotten his way and Bob Dawg had been kept instead, the results might’ve been worse for him! Good decision to ally with Cirie to set-up new targets, because he’d have been the one to get eliminated from Terry’s immunity backlash. Not sure taking a well-liked, underdog Cirie to the final 2 would’ve been a winning decision though

F. Skill Set Grade
(1) Survival = B
(2) Strategy = C
(3) Social = B
(4) Challenge = B



13. Yul Kwon

A. Good Luck
(1) Puka Puka
(a) Compatibility With Brad & Cao Boi
(b) Complete Compatibility With Becky
(c) Challenge Dominance
(2) Being Sent To Exile Island 2nd
(3) Compatibility With Aitu-Mates (Jonathan, Candice & Sundra)
(4) Aitu Dominance & Loyalty
(a) Mutiny = Candice Flipped Too Soon
(b) Double boot twist leading to Jenny's ouster
(c) Raro underestimating Jonathan
(d) Final 3 Scenario = Guaranteed into finals with the twist
(e) Intelligent, Game-Centered Contestants & Jury

B. Bad Luck
(1) Huge target from the start. Obvious threat (strong & smart reputation)
(2) Smartest and strongest opponents ever
(a) Strategists & social threats = Candice, Jonathan, Parvati, etc.
(b) Alpha males = Ozzy, Nate, Adam, etc.

C. Jury Management
(1) Game-Based Speech; Clearly Articulated Gameplay Style
(2) Lost Votes Were For Challenge-Monster Ozzy, But Not Against Yul
(3) Respected by jury
(4) Viewed as strategic mastermind, puppet master, & the brain
(5) Up against 1 of the most highly respected opponents ever (Ozzy)
(6) Seen as clearly superior to Becky (Actual Equal Partner)

D. Voting Control (5/9) = Had ultimate control over EVERY tribal council that he wanted to, including the 1st TC of the merge (which is where Jonathan flipped). In other
words, he was never caught on the outside of any vote

E. Skill Set
(1) Yul exemplified quiet leadership. All of his tribes dominated. According to interviews, Yul determined challenge strategy and execution. As a result, Puka Puka, Aitu, and Aitu 4 dominance led to opponent elimination. This is 1 of the reasons why he was still heavily respected and was able to win against 1 of the best challengers and providers (who
also managed to play one of the cleanest games) in Survivor history
(2) Probably the best Survivor strategist ever. Completely understood the numbers game, game theory, when to take calculated risks, was able to correctly identify threats and eliminate them before they became an issue (except Candice), etc.
(a) Took a calculated risk and fought to save Becky for Aitu majority, when he could’ve just gone with majority in fear of exposing his alliance
(b) Correctly identified pawn Cao Boi as a potential threat to both his hidden immunity idol and alliance
(c) Correctly identified Sundra and Ozzy as useful pawns forming Aitu core alliance, while simultaneously eliminating their outsider status and potential flipping. Classic strategy of: “Destroy your enemies by making them your friends” or “Keep your friends close and your enemies closer”. It ended up paying off in dividends at the mutiny
(d) In the minority at the merge, but ultimately controlled vote as majority by persuading Jonathan to flip using the immunity idol as bait and keeping the Aitu 4 unified and loyal
(e) Made intelligent use of the HII, by being open about its possession, thus making it a deterrence tool and taking him off the voting radar despite the fact that he was overtly on the radar
(3) Yul had good social skills too, despite being robotic. He was able to implement his strategies, because of his interpersonal abilities. He had incredible persuasiveness and communication skills
(a) Persuaded Cao Boi and Flicka to go against their instincts and best interests by working with Jonathan and booting Cecelia!
(b) Acquired Jonathan as a good ally
(c) Formed a true bond and strong partnership alliance with both Becky and Sundra
(d) Formed a strong extension alliance with Ozzy
(e) Had still managed to preserve the respect of Candice and Jonathan despite having voted them both off
(f) Overall, was very good at trust acquisition and coalition building. He had the most loyal and useful allies which allowed him to overcome ridiculous odds
(4) Yul faced lots of adversity, but handled much of it so gracefully, it looked like he had an easy game. He was 1 of the biggest targets, yet managed to get in control and keep it throughout the game
(5) He knew when to fly under-the-radar to become a non-threat and when to step it up and winning challenges for his tribe
(6) Had great social tact, strategic honesty, and relative openness which gained the respect of everyone, because he didn’t insult people’s intelligence. His honesty with Becky solidified their bond, and did the same with the Aitu 4
(7) Appeasement strategy worked wonderfully on Cao Boi, Jessica, Jonathan, Ozzy, and Sundra
(8) He was a rational decision-maker who had logical justifications for every 1 of the people he booted, which allowed him to play 1 of the cleanest games ever, despite having orchestrated most of it!
(9) Had street smarts in people assessment and conflict resolution. He didn’t have a problem defending himself and being not-nice when Candice tried to cause a rift between Jonathan and the Aitu 4
(10) Managed to position himself long-term very well. He was given the reputation of puppet master and mafia boss, and got most of the credit for the Aitu 4’s game, despite the fact that Becky was a strong player herself.
(11) Adapted to puppet master label (indirect attack by opponents) and used it to his advantage by securing Adam’s winning vote
(12) He employed good observation skills and information management
(13) Yul incorporated multiple types of major strategies:
(a) Alliance Pagonging via Aitu 4
(b) UTR via sandbagging and Ozzy dominance
(c) Romber partnership + extension alliances via tight alliance with Becky and Jonathan/Candice/Sundra, then with Sundra/Ozzy

F. Skill Set Grade
(1) Survival = B
(2) Strategy = A
(3) Social = A
(4) Challenge = B

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But I'll just say: social game is something that's very hard to 'grade.' I think of it as going to 13 different cocktail parties. You can either be the life of the party, or the wallflower, depending on the group of people. What matters is that your social game has to work in that particular surrounding with that particular group of people. I like to use an example: Sandra and Katie. Sandra was loud, only nice to people in her alliance, horrible at challenges, and, from what we saw, lazy at camp. But she was with a group of people who were louder and more obnoxious than she was (PI is a great season, but it had probably the largest number of total assholes in the game), plus she was standing next to Lill, whom the contestants couldn't abide because of the Outcast twist. So people didn't hold it against her, and directed all their hostility to Lill. Christ, Sandra might have lost to Jonny Fairplay. Fast forward three seasons. Katie was loud, only nice to people in her alliance, horrible at challenges, and lazy at camp. But she was facing a group of people who were for the most part nice, hardworking, and she belonged on Koror the challenge monster. Jury tore her to shreds without any mercy

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Hence the "luck factor". Luck determines the effectiveness of one's social skills in that particular season. The better and broader your skills are, the better

Quote:

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It's almost impossible to compare Survivor players because for the most part they weren't playing against the same competition. That's why it's kind of pointless to compare Brian vs. Richard, or Tina vs Danni. Since they weren't playing the same game against the same people, how can you even compare? Who's to say that Sandra wouldn't have been first voted out if she had been a player back in Borneo? So in general I think it's pointless to compare players and winners to one another. But I think it's particularly pointless when you start using All-Stars as a point of reference

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Well most of the ASS controversy comes down to this point here. I agree with it mostly. The bottom line is, we'll never have anything conclusive unless the winners all played against each other multiple times over and over again, so we'd draw more accurate conclusions. And even then, there would be room for error and subjectivity in judgment. The bottom line is most of this is speculation anyways. In that case, I guess you can say most of the talk here is pointless

That being said, it's still nice to think luck doesn't completely overshadow the skill element as the winning determinent and that we could draw some sort of generalizations from the data that we have right? For now, it's probably best if we all just agree to disagree on ASS validity