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That is giving much too much credit to Clay and Brian. The only reason that there were no coup was Ted's and Helen's blindness. Anyway, if you like Clay, you can have him!!

Actually when I rewatched Thailand, I didn't find Ted or Helen as dumb as I initially though. The main reason for Brian's success was all Jan being his personal follower. I'd say Ghandia's boot with Helen blindsiding Jan to try to work herself into the 4th wheel position of the Chuay Gahn tribe is what ultimately gave Brian all the control her needed

I'm not going to respond to the rest because I don't want to have to deal with my opinion being wrong when there are many reasons why what I said is right.

Perhaps you can explain it then

I don't agree with this theory at all though, if you name all the winners who needed immunity at a point where if they didn't, they were gone you'll see that they all screwed up some way (and it by no means is a majority).

The thing is, those who DIDN'T need immunity at some point had good luck comparatively, because everyone CAN be a threat and can be considered a target in some circumstance no matter how good you are at staying off peoples' radars

There are 6 Jenna (who should have filled Christy in), Chris (who should have voted with Eliza at the final 4), Tom (who made himself such a threat by being a challenge hog), Danni (who was the only one to be put in a bad situation), and Yul (who had a bad hand because he wasn't as close to Candice and Jonathan as he needed to be getting himself outplayed during the mutiny).

That's why they're ranked higher. They had worse luck, because they faced greater adversity despite not making any clear and undisputable mistakes in gameplay

Every other winner was never in extreme danger to leave (except Richard to an extent but I think that was misleading from editing)

Never being in extreme danger also suggests good luck as well as good skill

I don't get it - what brilliant move do people think Yul made using the HII?

Identifying Jonathan as the individual most likely to flip from Raro and actually accomplishing it which seemed improbable given Jonathan's initial apprehensions. After that, he then used it as a deterrence tool, while also ensuring that he maintained his numbers

Yul supposedly "threatened" Jonathan into switching to the Aitu 4. Except his threat didn't even make sense! His "threat" was that if Jonathan did not vote with the Aitu 4, the Aitu 4 would vote for Jonathan, Yul would play the Idol, and Jonathan would go home. This is idiotic because all Jonathan has to do is pretend that he's siding with the Aitu 4. Then the Aitu 4 will vote for Nate -- which is EXACTLY what happened.

Jonathan was thinking ahead. The threat would come the next round, and Jonathan thinks rationally about HIS self-interest. It makes total sense

It's explained in various posts in this thread as well as Entry #2977

So Yul's "threat" was DUMB!

No it wasn't. It was quite smart and helped win him the game. The problem was that Candice's mutiny inadvertently put Jonathan in a marginalized position, which doesn't sit well with an overt game controller like Penner. Jonathan made a high risk, high reward move that would hopefully improve his position in the game. It is "dumb" in retrospect with the benefit of hindsight, but basically all high risk moves that fail are then

The only real danger for Jonathan is that if Yul played the Idol and Nate went home, it would be Jon/Adam/Parv/Candice vs. the Aitu 4, resulting in a 4-4 tie. That means Jonathan could, maybe, have a 1 in 5 chance of going home at the next TC, and the Aitu 4 have a 50% chance of winning the tie. But, really, it doesn't take a genius to recognize a 4-4 tie possibility. I mean, no duh!

You have to look at it from Jonathan's point of view, not simply what could Jonathan have done to stop Yul from winning or how could Raro have succeeded. Jonathan was the 3rd wheel of his Raro alliance at best, and 4th to 5th wheel most likely. If he does not side with Aitu on the Nate vote, then his relationship with them is really destroyed after failing them twice, and that gives Parvati/Adam/Candice even MORE power than they already had. That does not really help him winning to play Denise to them. So he took the risk of trusting Yul as a guy who'd mostly maintained his game integrity in his eyes at that point, because the F2 deal would be huge for Jonathan's game if Yul truly intended to honor it

So in actuality, Yul had no plan and did nothing.

Where did you get this idea? We saw Becky and Yul clearly strategizing on camera about Jonathan being a rational player and being the one most likely to flip. It was clearly pre-meditated and planned out. Even the approach was methodical in terms of timing, as we saw Yul lay out the foundation of their talks pre-challenge and then post-challenge showing Jonathan the idol

His "plan" worked because, a) Adam was trying to pretend that he had the Idol and refused to entertain the idea that Yul might have it,

Adam actually posted here and clarified that this isn't the case. It's because they were trying to make sure Jonathan went along with the vote and they had unified numbers

b) Jonathan for some inexplicable reason wanted to side with the person with the Idol, and c) Jonathan was dumb.

Siding with an over-powered idol makes PERFECT sense. For 1 thing, if Jonathan goes against the Aitu, then he makes 4 enemies in 1 foul swoop, while still remaining at the bottom of his current alliance. Second, even if he gets rid of an idol, there is a 7/8 chance that he won't get the idol once it's re-hidden, which means that he would've squandered an ally-making opportunity AND still have the idol around to contend with. If an Aitu gets the idol again, then he's really in trouble

It also helped that Jonathan did not like that Raro kids, and they apparently didn't like him much, but that had nothing to do with Yul.

It was certainly partly a good luck factor on his side, but it also indicates Yul's great social game, because Jonathan was more biased for him and Aitu after experiencing both tribes. 1 thing I'd note is that Yul is a VERY strong social player as he is a strategic player. I think 1 thing that all the winners have in common are very strong social games. Even if it's just manipulation, someone like Heidik can play the role of a nice guy. Or Hatch can hide his actual cocky personality and be well liked and respected by his tribe

Also, trying to use the Idol as leverage is not a new idea. Terry sort of tried to do that in Exile Island.

Terry failed and his attempts to leverage his idol were a lot less creative. He didn't even offer a F2 deal out and simply promised Bruce a vague F5 alliance with La Mina, which suggests only a 5th wheel position. Additionally, unlike Yul's focused efforts, Terry tried to work ALL of Casaya over, which makes him look more like an opportunistic schemer

A lot of viewers ALSO recognized early on that the Idol could be used in creative ways. Observing that Jonathan is the odd man out in Raro also wasn't difficult. It was obvious both to viewers and to the people on the island.

I think it was likely average difficulty. It'd be obvious to viewers, because editing has to explain such things, so of course it's going to focus on Jonathan feeling out of place with his tribe as it did

Nate looked just as much on the outside as Jonathan--perhaps, more so. Jonathan jumped WITH Candice at the mutiny, suggesting they are close. Then, original Raro take over the 2nd Raro side ejecting Brad then Rebecca then Jenny, despite them being around more and BEFORE Candice/Jonathan on 2nd Raro. Finally, as everyone said, what would make it OBVIOUS that Jonathan would re-join Aitu, after he so brutally and overtly backstabbed them? Combining the voting facts that the Jenny vote was 4-2 with Nate on the outside--not Jonathan, this was not a clear cut case and without risk at all. The main thing that would indicate Jonathan was on the outside was the merge socializing and age gap. Still, it required more observation skills than most of the major flips in Survivor history, like Chris being hand-fed the Leann boot by Twila, or Tina hearing from Jerri herself that her good friends were Amber and Mitchell