Winner Analysis

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Quiddity		#2901	[-]
Posts: 2516 (05/14/08 6:36 PM) Registered User Reply Quote More Recent Posts Message Connection Block Invite	Dr Will Hatch two point oh wrote: The rwason I rank Danni relativly low is partly due to Rafe not voting her out the f4.There was no proper excuse for this and no reason why he should of kept Danni.I don't exactly uy the arguement that she guilted him into it, what jury votes would he lose? The problem with that argument is that almost every winner benefitted from some dumb mistake made by their opponents. Tom won with Ian quitting at the most important part of the game. Richard had an easy pass to F4 with Pagong throwing away the first 2 pre-merge votes and Sean off in la-la land voting alphabetically. Brian had the other tribe throwing pre-merge challenges. Tina had Amber & Kucha sitting back and doing nothing when they could have taken control at F7 & F6, and of course the big Colby decision. Jenna had Dave, Deena, Alex and Christy completley throwing their games away in succession. Amber had the Mogo Morons. Chris had Leann kicking out Scout and telling her to her face. Yul had the Raro retards voting for him at F9 instead of Becky and Jonathan throwing his game away for good with that vote. Todd had James getting voted out with both HIIs and Amanda's big choke job against the jury. Ethan had Samburu failing to take control no matter how many opportunities Boran gave them. Vecepia had the Rotu 4 voting out Gabriel and revealing the pecking order. Sandra had Burton's moronic decision to take Jon on reward and tell Lill he wasn't going to F2 with her (not to mention Lill taking her when she had a much better chance against Jon). Aras had Terry being a complete moron when trying to pull people to his side. Earl had Mookie stupidly telling Dreamz about the HII and the vote out of Lisi over Dreamz at F11. And I don't think we have to talk about the dumb people in Parvati's season. I think that's everyone. Are you going to apply the same standards to those winners as well? Are we going to get into a discussion that is essentially "this winner is the best because they had the least stupid makes from their opponents"?
SwineForkbeard		#2902	[-]
Posts: 1526 (05/14/08 7:09 PM) Registered user Reply Quote More Recent Posts Message Connection Block Invite	RavuRules wrote: I'm going by what the players said themselves. In post-game interviews I believe it was Jonathan himself who flat out said that he targeted Parvati for her incredible social game, most notably the way she had completely wrapped James around her finger despite just meeting him on the island like everybody else and of course Jonathan's history with her. JFP may have very well believed that was the reason why JAYE was targeting her and that might have been his personal reason. But it's fair to say Jonathan was the #1 source of Parvati's problems, despite both of them being alright with each other supposedly so I'm going with his testimony I'm not sure what you're taking issue with here. I'm also going by what Jonathan said, and thought the evidence indicated that Parvati was targeted because of her actions in the first few days, not anything she did in the Cook Islands. I think Jonathan's pregame video is a better indicator of his state of mind going into the game, because in his postgame interviews, he likely knew that Parvati had won or at least had gone far, and had proved she was as much of a threat as he had feared. In his pregame video, he didn't give the impression of being indimidated by Parvati's social skills, only that they hated each other. But he said he could use that to his advantage by having a secret alliance with her and was willing to give her a chance to prove she could be loyal to him. My point was that we didn't see him go into the game plotting against her like Rupert had with Tina.
ShanesThinkingSeat		#2903	[-]
Posts: 331 (05/14/08 7:23 PM) Reply Quote More Recent Posts Message Connection Block Invite	RavuRules wrote: And yes, RR, I am mainly talking about the Blake move, and whether or not she regained control, she survived to the end partially due to an IC win and IMO Rafe's F3 mistake. I don't rank Danni too high because of that particular error, which I feel is too major to overlook. That is definitely something I've noted. Basically all the other winners have benefited from some sort of blunder by their opponents too though. Just because the blunder happens at the end doesn't necessarily make it more lucky than people who screwed up at the start of a game which paved the way for the future winner. Is there anyone who you think Danni should be ranked below and why? Yeah, there are a few I'd put above her, but I've noticed that my ranking criteria is a bit different from yours. As of right now, some winners I would put above Danni in terms of overall gameplay are Brian, Chris, Tom, and Parvati (and perhaps Yul, Aras, Earl, Todd). I tend to favor game/mind control over the UTR strategy, though Danni was one of the more noticeable UTR players, if that makes sense. As you or someone else as said, Danni and Chris are the two "alliance infiltrators" that have won, but I think Chris was a little better because of his total game control from F6 to the finish. While he was spoonfed the plan that put him back in the game, who's to say he wouldn't have come up with that on his own before TC? To be honest, the Blake move doesn't detract as much credit from her game as I feel the IC victory should. I don't really feel that someone who was required to win an immunity challenge to stay in the game should get the #1 spot on the winners' list. I will agree she had the worst luck of any winner.
Dr Will Hatch two point oh		#2904	[-]
Posts: 3567 (05/14/08 7:41 PM) Registered user Reply Quote More Recent Posts Message Connection Block Invite	Quiddity wrote: Dr Will Hatch two point oh wrote: The rwason I rank Danni relativly low is partly due to Rafe not voting her out the f4.There was no proper excuse for this and no reason why he should of kept Danni.I don't exactly uy the arguement that she guilted him into it, what jury votes would he lose? The problem with that argument is that almost every winner benefitted from some dumb mistake made by their opponents. Tom won with Ian quitting at the most important part of the game. Richard had an easy pass to F4 with Pagong throwing away the first 2 pre-merge votes and Sean off in la-la land voting alphabetically. Brian had the other tribe throwing pre-merge challenges. Tina had Amber & Kucha sitting back and doing nothing when they could have taken control at F7 & F6, and of course the big Colby decision. Jenna had Dave, Deena, Alex and Christy completley throwing their games away in succession. Amber had the Mogo Morons. Chris had Leann kicking out Scout and telling her to her face. Yul had the Raro retards voting for him at F9 instead of Becky and Jonathan throwing his game away for good with that vote. Todd had James getting voted out with both HIIs and Amanda's big choke job against the jury. Ethan had Samburu failing to take control no matter how many opportunities Boran gave them. Vecepia had the Rotu 4 voting out Gabriel and revealing the pecking order. Sandra had Burton's moronic decision to take Jon on reward and tell Lill he wasn't going to F2 with her (not to mention Lill taking her when she had a much better chance against Jon). Aras had Terry being a complete moron when trying to pull people to his side. Earl had Mookie stupidly telling Dreamz about the HII and the vote out of Lisi over Dreamz at F11. And I don't think we have to talk about the dumb people in Parvati's season. I think that's everyone. Are you going to apply the same standards to those winners as well? Are we going to get into a discussion that is essentially "this winner is the best because they had the least stupid makes from their opponents"? 1.Ian quitting had everything to do with Toms emotional manipulation and guilt tripping of Ian, while its been shown not to be the case with Danni/Rafe 2.Pagong was led by two people who were strictly anti stratagy(Gretchen and Greg), due to the fact that they were unaware of the nature of the game oer were uninterested in playing it, is it Richards fault for taking advantage of that? You can't compare it to Danni/Rafe was because Rafes decision came from a bizarre source(He said he kept Danni over Lydia was because Danni was malnounished and weak. And Lydia wasn't? No matter what, Danni will tend to preform better then Lydia). Dannis play at f6 had nothing to do with her being kept or not. And for the record,Sean was voting alphabetically because most Pagong memers names start the alphabet,so it wasn't random. Also, he was quite loyal to Richard, so we can up Richards social game that much more 3.Brian convinced the other tribe to throw ics? Anyway,thats beside the point. Sook Jai factored very little into Brians game,which is why he only had Jakes vote. 4.Tina is a master manipulator,I'm not so sure about Danni. Kucha made lots of dumb moves, but not all of them have to do with Tina.For instance, did they really think Colby had prior votes before the merge? I would rank Tina above Danni in stratagy because of reasons already documented 5.So,whats that have to do with Danni? 6.ditto 7.The raros voted for Yul due to Nates dumbass decision making skills and the fact that Adam figured that a unified tribe thats wrong is better then an ununified tribe.Also,Jonathan should of sided with the Raros. It would remove the HII,and make both factions dependent on his vote. The latter was due to Yul,but not the former. I guess you could compare it to Dannis play, but alot of other factors went into Yuls win,and I rank him higher 8.Todd had nothing to do with either of those. And I actually rank Todd below Danni,so there you go. 9.Ethan had nothing to do with those either.I admit that Africa had a horrible strategic game,and thats why Danni is ranked above Ethan in my book. 10.Vecepia is a very good player, but she had little to do with Rotus demise. It was due to their own arrogance 11.Actually,the mistake was Jons for not lobbying for Lill to go. If she left at f6, all Burton and Jon have to do is turn Darrah and Christa against eachother and they could enjoy their reward anyway. I rank Danni higher then sandra, although she was responsible for the female mutiny. 12.Terry was a complete moron anyway(). 13.I agree, but Mookie didn't know how chaotic Dreamz was 14.The stupidity of some players might be equated to Parvatis manipulation of them I think Danni is an otherwise supurb player, but Rafe was a huge idiot
RavuRules		#2905	[-]
Posts: 1647 (05/14/08 10:40 PM) Registered user Reply Quote More Recent Posts Message Connection Block Invite	I'm not sure what you're taking issue with here. I'm also going by what Jonathan said, and thought the evidence indicated that Parvati was targeted because of her actions in the first few days, not anything she did in the Cook Islands. I think it was both. I'm taking what he said both in pre-game interviews and post-game and mashing them together I think Jonathan's pregame video is a better indicator of his state of mind going into the game, because in his postgame interviews, he likely knew that Parvati had won or at least had gone far, and had proved she was as much of a threat as he had feared. Well it wasn't just post-game. The reasons he gave during the game on the TV show edit was that she was a good social player In his pregame video, he didn't give the impression of being indimidated by Parvati's social skills, only that they hated each other. They didn't actually hate each other. Jonathan thought that Ozzy and her might not like him back when Parvati was livid at him in CI and giving the million to Yul instead of Ozzy. In actuality, Parvati and Ozzy were both mature enough to be alright with him and each wondered individually if they'd be able to work with him. I'm assuming they all followed through with what they said in the pre-game interview and tried to feel each other out in those 1st couple of days. At the least, it seemed the 3 of them were kosher with each other. Ozzy and Jonathan were on opposite sides of the fence and had an understanding that they couldn't be on the same team, but it does seem like they had a working relationship. Jonathan and Parvati seemed to get along, although clearly, Jonathan made a strategic decision that Parvati needed to go, and she took it in stride as such and handled her targeting quite well My speculation is a bit different from yours: (1) I think you are saying that Jonathan didn't think of Parvati as a threat but that JAYE wanted her gone after she flirted with some people and that her CI reputation had next to nothing to do with it. Jonathan saying that she was a social threat is slight history revisionism based on the fact that she won (2) My take is that what Jonathan said both pre-game and post-game is true with no history revisionism. I think he wanted to gauge where Parvati was with him in terms of a working relationship. They probably made up and were cool with each other. And then he and the others probably started seeing her work people over like James and felt threatened by her ability to form exclusive relationships with people. So then, it reminded him of how she could be in with people like Candice and Adam in a way he himself could never do. So even though she has no animosity towards him, not being totally with him meant that he might need to take her out as quickly as he could. This viewpoint incorporates all of what Jonathan said and seems more plausible to me than the account you have given, although you could very well be right. The thing is, people can easily change their minds, and I don't think a decision to target Parvati occurred in a historical vacuum. Parvati's actions in the game were probably the reasons why she got the attention of the JAYE alliance, but I think ultimately her prior success and the memory and knowledge of her past gaming skills was what structured their decision-making. Being a flirt by itself is not necessarily THAT threatening. Being a flirt and knowing that it got her to 6th place and that a huge reason why she didn't make 1st place was due to Jonathan himself is quite a different matter But he said he could use that to his advantage by having a secret alliance with her and was willing to give her a chance to prove she could be loyal to him. She said something similar. Having known her in CI, Jonathan probably figured he needed to take out Parvati while he could, because leaving her in the game wasn't to his benefit. Short of a solid secret alliance, Penne knows she becomes a huge enemy due to her ability to form huge strong alliances around her without having to do heavy politicking. Unlike many others, Parvati's skills are structured in pleasure and aren't really outwardly negative or blunt in nature. She's not going around promising people F2 to the end and pissing people off by gaming too hard. Instead she subtly works people over on the social level and makes people want to protect her. So it's harder to scapegoat someone like that and point to them as a threat. Weaker players then look at you as the bad guy for stirring stuff up and wondering what you have against poor, nice Parvati My point was that we didn't see him go into the game plotting against her like Rupert had with Tina. I don't see your statement indicating that Rupert was specifically plotting against Tina. I think he merely pointed out the obvious fact that it's easier to scapegoat certain individuals in the event that he gets into trouble. Rupert's offensive game is more defensive in nature. He learned from Sandra, "As long as it's not me". He's not really the type to really go out and scapegoat someone as a target, unless they've really pissed him off somehow. That's why it's not like he was like leading the charge against Tina and actually needed to be convinced a lot by Jenna Lewis as shown in the TV edit. He wasn't enthusiastically saying, "Yeah! Those damn winners! She's so gone!" like we'd do in an online Survivor game. Instead he was like, "I dunno". Then Jenna Lewis looks up at him
RavuRules		#2906	[-]
Posts: 1649 (05/15/08 2:33 PM) Registered user Reply Quote More Recent Posts Message Connection Block Invite	1.Ian quitting had everything to do with Toms emotional manipulation and guilt tripping of Ian, while its been shown not to be the case with Danni/Rafe I'd say there was both luck and manipulative skill in both those outcomes Dr. Will
Quiddity		#2907	[-]
Posts: 2520 (05/15/08 2:41 PM) Registered User Reply Quote More Recent Posts Message Connection Block Invite	Dr.WH2.0, you're deluding yourself if you think Danni had nothing to do with Rafe's decision. The biggest reason Rafe kept Danni around at F4 was because he was insecure in his position at F3 and thought that Danni would bring him to F2. And he thought that because Danni repeatedly told him she'd bring him to F2, even if she'd lose to him. To act like Danni had absolutely nothing to do with that decision is pure absurdity. Rafe played a tremendous game up to F5, one of the best we've ever seen. He successfully turned America's sweetheart Stephenie intro ultra goat and would arguably have beat her 7-0. So don't act like Rafe is some complete moron that handed Danni her win on a silver platter. Rafe was an extremely good player. But Danni was a better one, and beat him at his own game. Where Rafe manipulated Stephenie into doing his bidding, even though it was not in her own best interest, Danni did the exact same thing to Rafe. She did a tremendous job and absolutely deserves to be ranked among the best winners in this game. I'm sure your buddy Zach would agree! That is, if he's alive after the tremendous failure of DolphinCrash. :P
EOrlins		#2908	[-]
Posts: 809 (05/15/08 2:44 PM) Because it's just a stick!!! Reply Quote More Recent Posts Message Connection Block Invite	SwineForkbeard wrote: I usually try to avoid that kind of speculation unless there are hard facts to back it up, since it's often hard to predict the outcome of 7/8/9 separate, independent decisions from people with varying agendas. One person cannot speak for the jury, and Eliza could just be projecting her own point of view onto the others. It brings to mind the comment from James, "We all know Amanda has this in the bag," which the editors unwisely chose to air and spoiled the ending. Just to clarify, when James said "Amanda has THIS in the bag" he was referring to his own vote and NOT the game.
RavuRules		#2909	[-]
Posts: 1650 (05/15/08 2:44 PM) Registered user Reply Quote More Recent Posts Message Connection Block Invite	Thanks Eliza!
Dr Will Hatch two point oh		#2910	[-]
Posts: 3575 (05/15/08 4:26 PM) Registered user Reply Quote More Recent Posts Message Connection Block Invite	Quiddity wrote: Dr.WH2.0, you're deluding yourself if you think Danni had nothing to do with Rafe's decision. The biggest reason Rafe kept Danni around at F4 was because he was insecure in his position at F3 and thought that Danni would bring him to F2. And he thought that because Danni repeatedly told him she'd bring him to F2, even if she'd lose to him. To act like Danni had absolutely nothing to do with that decision is pure absurdity. Rafe played a tremendous game up to F5, one of the best we've ever seen. He successfully turned America's sweetheart Stephenie intro ultra goat and would arguably have beat her 7-0. So don't act like Rafe is some complete moron that handed Danni her win on a silver platter. Rafe was an extremely good player. But Danni was a better one, and beat him at his own game. Where Rafe manipulated Stephenie into doing his bidding, even though it was not in her own best interest, Danni did the exact same thing to Rafe. She did a tremendous job and absolutely deserves to be ranked among the best winners in this game. I'm sure your buddy Zach would agree! That is, if he's alive after the tremendous failure of DolphinCrash. :P Haha,you had to throw in that Zach reference huh? Ive finally admited that his f5 move was a mistake, but everything else he did was the right move. Anyway,I agree with you that Danni had something to do with the decision, but that decision was illogical.Who cares if she promised him a f2 deal? Stephenie would never had betrayed him. I can't think of anything more illogical then what Rafe did in the game.He had no fear of losing jury votes. And I agree Ravu! But Rafe did make one of the worst moves ever.Worse then Eriks,worse then Twatwaffles
panurge46		#2911	[-]
Posts: 1013 (05/15/08 5:09 PM) Registered user Reply Quote More Recent Posts Message Connection Block Invite	Hi Ravu, Have you updated your rankings? I've read a few pages and saw some interesting discussions and, unfortunately some re-hashed discussions going 'round n 'round. I'm disappointed that you still refuse the reports from the Outback players that I brought. Maybe Eliza will run into some of them and they could come over and convince you that Tina was the one applying the strategy. You'd be able to appreciate Outback a little more. Isn't that what Survivor fans want? Having a season to enjoy? Here's a few thoughts on ranking Parvati: - Malakal was a tribe divided from the start. That's a difficult situation to overcome, especially if you are the targeted player. Eliza can attest to that. Some of the events that saved Parvati in the beginning were due to her own actions (getting the couples' alliance and Cirie on her side) some were fortuitous (JFP quitting and the Airai tribe being equally divided) Was she doomed if JFP had stayed? Possibly but it's also possible JFP wanted to look important in his interviews. He had to know Parvati was going deeper in the game than Eliza so saying he would have voted out Parvati creates a bigger impact. For the first segment of the game, Parvati was in difficulty in a divided tribe but, by the end of episode #3, she had the situation well in hand. Those facts tell us it's a good start, whether we get bogged down in weighing luck factors or not. - The switch up was dangerous. It always is. Parvati didn't have the numbers anymore. The Airai Faves were divided 2-2, the Fans were 2-1-1. Kathy seems to think Jason would have been the first vote. She was on Jonathan's side but loved James. Alexis was leaning towards Penner while Nat was on Parvati's side. I think that the Faves would have been smart enough to seize the opportunity to boot Jason first but who knows for sure. What matters is what happened: Facing a tribe switch that put her in an insecure position, she reached the merge as the player with the most control. Again, some of the events weren't due to her actions but Parvati deserves at least a small part of the credit for Airai becoming the "good tribe". As Kathy said: "She was extremely friendly." That had to help with team spirit and, therefore, with the challenge wins. - Post-merge, the women's alliance was amazing and that alliance was Parvati's creation. Cirie, Amanda and Nat deserve a lot of credit and certainly Cirie's a "what-if" winner, but still, the Faves don't make up the F3 if Parvati didn't have Nat and Lexie locked up. Of course, just as I knock Yul for having the benefit of the players not knowing it was a F3, we can certainly question Parvati's end-game strategy. Does she win a F3? All I know is she had a chance to get Nat, Alexis and Jason's votes and that could have been enough. Does Yul beat Ozzy in an F3 challenge? I don't think so but I don't know. The fact remains, Micronesia was a F2 as Survivor should always be and Parvati won. All in all, I'd rate Parvati somewhere around 6th place, an echelon behind Tina and the other expert winners. I guess that would place her just ahead of Yul!
ShanesThinkingSeat		#2912	[-]
Posts: 342 (05/15/08 5:21 PM) Reply Quote More Recent Posts Message Connection Block Invite	Dr Will Hatch two point oh wrote: Quiddity wrote: Dr.WH2.0, you're deluding yourself if you think Danni had nothing to do with Rafe's decision. The biggest reason Rafe kept Danni around at F4 was because he was insecure in his position at F3 and thought that Danni would bring him to F2. And he thought that because Danni repeatedly told him she'd bring him to F2, even if she'd lose to him. To act like Danni had absolutely nothing to do with that decision is pure absurdity. Rafe played a tremendous game up to F5, one of the best we've ever seen. He successfully turned America's sweetheart Stephenie intro ultra goat and would arguably have beat her 7-0. So don't act like Rafe is some complete moron that handed Danni her win on a silver platter. Rafe was an extremely good player. But Danni was a better one, and beat him at his own game. Where Rafe manipulated Stephenie into doing his bidding, even though it was not in her own best interest, Danni did the exact same thing to Rafe. She did a tremendous job and absolutely deserves to be ranked among the best winners in this game. I'm sure your buddy Zach would agree! That is, if he's alive after the tremendous failure of DolphinCrash. :P Haha,you had to throw in that Zach reference huh? Ive finally admited that his f5 move was a mistake, but everything else he did was the right move. Anyway,I agree with you that Danni had something to do with the decision, but that decision was illogical.Who cares if she promised him a f2 deal? Stephenie would never had betrayed him. I can't think of anything more illogical then what Rafe did in the game.He had no fear of losing jury votes. And I agree Ravu! But Rafe did make one of the worst moves ever.Worse then Eriks,worse then Twatwaffles Agree with the fact that Rafe made an bad move based on emotion worse than Lex, but I gotta disagree with Erik. Erik pretty much forked over a guaranteed F2 berth. Does anyone honestly feel like he'd have lost either of those two immunity challenges? Both were made for him.
Dr Will Hatch two point oh		#2913	[-]
Posts: 3577 (05/15/08 5:32 PM) Registered user Reply Quote More Recent Posts Message Connection Block Invite	Well,ok.I acan agree to that. I was saying that Rafe made a huge blunder that wasn't totally of Dannis doing, stupid is as stupid does like they say
Quiddity		#2914	[-]
Posts: 2523 (05/15/08 6:56 PM) Registered User Reply Quote More Recent Posts Message Connection Block Invite	Haha,you had to throw in that Zach reference huh? Ive finally admited that his f5 move was a mistake, but everything else he did was the right move. Finally! Joy! Everything else though? I don't know about that. He was smart in forming an early alliance. Although the Mrs. Robinson alliance would go down in history as the worst BB alliance ever if the Jen-Amanda-Natalie-Matt-Alex-Parker one hadn't flopped even worse this season. Zach coasted through most of the game because he was completely pathetic and everyone knew they could take him out further down the line. He did okay with his F6 HOH reign, I guess. His F4 HOH reign was incredibly dopey, he couldn't comprehend that the F4 noms were meaningless and had this ridiculous speech to Dick & Daniele that accomplished absolutely nothing but make them really pissed off at him and make him look really foolish. Anyway,I agree with you that Danni had something to do with the decision, but that decision was illogical.Who cares if she promised him a f2 deal? Stephenie would never had betrayed him. I can't think of anything more illogical then what Rafe did in the game.He had no fear of losing jury votes. Ah ha! so you agree that she had a part in it. Glad to hear that. Rafe's move certainly was insanely dumb. But a big reason it happened was because of Danni. If she sits around doing nothing, what happened doesn't happen. So that's what seperates that situation with me from a stupid move made where the person who benefitted had absolutely nothing to do with it. It all falls back to the argument I already made. If we're going to criticize Danni's victory for Rafe's mistake, then we have to apply the exact same standard to all the winners who benefitted from their opponent's mistakes. Some, like Tom with Ian, played a part in the mistake happenening. Others like Rich had no part whatsoever in why their opponents made such stupid moves. And then it essentially just becomes who had the smartest opponents, wow, they're the best, regardless of how they played. And I agree Ravu! But Rafe did make one of the worst moves ever.Worse then Eriks,worse then Twatwaffles Worse than Erik's? No way. Rafe permitted a much stronger opponent and pretty much impossible to beat jury threat to stay past the F4 eviction. But all he needed to win the game was for him or Stephenie to win the immunity challenge. 2/3 odds. Erik gave away immunity knowing full well that the four other women there wanted him out immediately and that blindside after blindside had been happening. Dumber than Lex's move? Yes. Rafe's decision would probably go 4th all time with me, behind Colby, Ian and our new King, Erik.
Dr Will Hatch two point oh		#2915	[-]
Posts: 3581 (05/15/08 7:17 PM) Registered user Reply Quote More Recent Posts Message Connection Block Invite	I remember the first week of BB8 and how lousy Zach was interpreting what was going on,but I give him benifit of the doubt on much of this.Nich for instance was an awful player. So I guess you could say he was very lucky,nothing wrong with that.Hes never seen BB before,and how was he to "get in the group" when he ostracized himself week 1? The reason I defend him is because he lobbied hard for Dani to go at the final 7, which is a common sense move but a very smart one for Zach.Him and Dick win all the HOHs from then on and Zach wins the jury vote.But thus,it was rigged. At f4,I agree that noms are meaningless, but trying to secure Jamekas vote is only common sense.Maybe he cared too much about securing Jamekas,and thus,the rest of LNCs vote. Thats my hypothesis as to why he ejected Eric at f5. Oh no,I'm not saying Danni should of been a doormat.I give her credit for totally making Gary her stooge at the swap. What I'm saying is that Rafes logic makes so little sense,is so absurd and stupid that either Danni is a Jedi, or Rafe is a dumbfuck.You could compare it to Tom/Ian, but Rafe gave an alternative reason for not booting her at f4.He said she was so malnourished that she couldn't possibly be a threat. It could e Rafe saving face, but I'm not entirely convinved it was entirly of Dannis doing. And you can't compare it to stupid players from other seasons because those moves were more indirect. Pagong had no clue what they were getting into. Twatwaffle was banking on his prior friendships when he should of thought about stratagy.Rafe seemed to make a completly idiotic decision with little input from anyone.I could be wrong. And I agree, saying it was worse then Eriks move was a little hasty
RavuRules		#2916	[-]
Posts: 1651 (05/15/08 7:58 PM) Registered user Reply Quote More Recent Posts Message Connection Block Invite	Have you updated your rankings? Not yet. I haven't even gotten around to studying China in-depth like the other seasons. I have my instincts of course, but I'll probably refrain from updating the rankings until I feel confident with my analysis I'm disappointed that you still refuse the reports from the Outback players that I brought. While I read the reports, the main issue I have with completely taking them at face value was the fact that the individuals were Varner and Mike who weren't even on Tina's original tribe nor were they really present for the merge. They also demonstrated rudimentary strategic abilities. Overall, the discrepency between the TV edit, those 2 reports, public opinion, and Tina's all-stars are quite large. Given the massive support and biases for the early seasons, and my not being affected by that, I don't know if we'll ever come to a consensus on her Maybe Eliza will run into some of them and they could come over and convince you that Tina was the one applying the strategy. I would LOVE that! You'd be able to appreciate Outback a little more. Isn't that what Survivor fans want? Having a season to enjoy? Yes and yes. Although we all know some "fans" would actually like to bitch about some seasons rather than enjoy them Basically agreed with everything you said except for a couple things (not that they're new topics): Of course, just as I knock Yul for having the benefit of the players not knowing it was a F3, we can certainly question Parvati's end-game strategy. I don't know if I'd say we should "knock" them necessarily, although it's definitely a luck factor to note. The problem is if we do that, we must do it for all the winners. Knocking them for their season's "change" in format presupposes a status quo which is a bias I'm not particularly interested in. For instance, if we knock Parvati for the fact that F3 changed to F2 and the players' incorrect assumptions benefited Parvati which she couldn't have planned ahead for, then similarly past winners were "lucky" that their gaming chances weren't altered by similar end-game twists that changed the finale landscape on a dime. That's not to say we ignore the possibility that Parvati wasn't planning properly for the end-game. But if you apply changes in finale twists as luck factors then you must apply it to each and every situation. In terms of Yul, the change from F2 to F3's effect on his winning is even more vague. Whereas, we kind of know what impact F3 to F2 had on Parvati's game, it's more up in the air with Yul, given that his winning chances would be contingent on whatever the 3rd challenge is. You wouldn't necessarily "knock" him for the twist, and simply assume the worst scenario. Naturally, any change to an already winning game will be assumed as "worse". It's not really something we can accurately speculate on with any real certainty Does she win a F3? All I know is she had a chance to get Nat, Alexis and Jason's votes and that could have been enough. As Swine said, it's speculation. I think we can somewhat look to post-game interviews for answers like the fact that Alexis said she would've wanted Cirie to win. But at the end of the day, we don't really know what would've happened in real time, so we take it with a grain of salt Does Yul beat Ozzy in an F3 challenge? I don't think so but I don't know. The fact remains, Micronesia was a F2 as Survivor should always be and Parvati won. I agree with the 1st statement but not the 2nd. I'm not a fan of "should always be". I did sort of enjoy how F2 became the new F3 twist with some bitter fans . In the end, some people just don't like change versus any real complaint with a specific twist All in all, I'd rate Parvati somewhere around 6th place, an echelon behind Tina and the other expert winners. I guess that would place her just ahead of Yul! Your bait doesn't work as effectively on me anymore now that I've got your Modus Operandi
SwineForkbeard		#2917	[-]
Posts: 1527 (05/16/08 3:33 PM) Registered user Reply Quote More Recent Posts Message Connection Block Invite	panurge46 wrote: Was she doomed if JFP had stayed? Possibly but it's also possible JFP wanted to look important in his interviews. He had to know Parvati was going deeper in the game than Eliza so saying he would have voted out Parvati creates a bigger impact. I seriously doubt he cares enough about what sucksters think to make things up about what happened, but even if he would, I think what he said makes the most sense, because he probably wouldn't have had any other logical options anyway. Eliza has confirmed that Parvati would otherwise have been voted out, and if Cirie was part of Jonathan's alliance at that point, Fairplay's only options were to either vote with them or force a tie and hope he didn't have to pick a rock. What matters is what happened: Facing a tribe switch that put her in an insecure position, she reached the merge as the player with the most control. Again, some of the events weren't due to her actions but Parvati deserves at least a small part of the credit for Airai becoming the "good tribe". As Kathy said: "She was extremely friendly." That had to help with team spirit and, therefore, with the challenge wins That's a pretty nebulous thing to give somebody credit for. Strictly speaking, Parvati contributed little to Airai's immunity streak. And if you're going to credit her for unquantifiable factors like "team spirit" it's worth remembering that Eliza probably contributed more to those immunity wins than anybody else, and she called Parvati a "mean person" who made fun of her. Also, Parvati herself attributed Eliza and Jason's determination to win the challenge that she sat out in episode 8 to desperation, saying that they knew they were in a bad position. It sounded like Airai had an obvious pecking order, and was hardly a stereotypical happy tribe where everybody felt included.
RavuRules		#2918	[-]
Posts: 1654 (05/16/08 4:07 PM) Registered user Reply Quote More Recent Posts Message Connection Block Invite	Hey Dr. Will. Some comments on things you said to Quiddity: 2.Pagong was led by two people who were strictly anti stratagy(Gretchen and Greg), due to the fact that they were unaware of the nature of the game oer were uninterested in playing it, is it Richards fault for taking advantage of that? It was a great strategy on his part. Unfortunately for his ranking, it's an easy lesson to re-apply and emulate, so once the "alliance" template became notorious, just about anyone could use it to great effect. He gets lots of credit for coming up with it (along with Kelly/Sue who don't get due credit for the alliance idea) but in my ranking, I wouldn't give him extra respect credit, because the fact of the matter is, if he were to be put up against the modern day competitors, his capabilities aren't as remarkable as they were back in the day as we saw how he floundered in ASS (albeit with some reputation bad luck added on) You can't compare it to Danni/Rafe was because Rafes decision came from a bizarre source(He said he kept Danni over Lydia was because Danni was malnounished and weak. And Lydia wasn't? No matter what, Danni will tend to preform better then Lydia). Dannis play at f6 had nothing to do with her being kept or not. Rafe's judgment and decision was indeed poor and costly. I would disagree that Danni had nothing to do with her being kept around though. She was a solid social player and played Kingmaker to Rafe well so it got her in a position to capitalize on luck and opportunity when it did. Does that require extraordinary abilities? Not really. It's still solid UTR gameplay though and it's not like a lot of the other winners have demonstrated especially unique abilities either And for the record,Sean was voting alphabetically because most Pagong memers names start the alphabet,so it wasn't random. Also, he was quite loyal to Richard, so we can up Richards social game that much more Hatch definitely gets credit for social game with Sean. Sean started off not really caring for Hatch based on the TV edit. By the end of the game, Sean was solidly in Hatch's corner. Of course, Hatch was largely keeping him around because he was attracted to him I believe (from what SK mentioned?), so that might be partly lucky that it worked out for him like it did. Definitely the plus side for him being the "leader" or overt game controller of the Tagi alliance though 4.Tina is a master manipulator,I'm not so sure about Danni. Kucha made lots of dumb moves, but not all of them have to do with Tina.For instance, did they really think Colby had prior votes before the merge? I would rank Tina above Danni in stratagy because of reasons already documented What reasons? Everyone simply calls her a master manipulator without providing how she manipulated. The extent of her manipulation seemed to be with Colby, Keith, and Liz. With Elisabeth though, I think it was just as much as Liz's proactive infiltration strategy and her using Tina as it was Tina using her. So I'd chalk that up to solid social gameplay as opposed to Tina somehow mind-controlling her. Colby however, is a different story. She may indeed have truly manipulated him given that his game focus seemed to tank by the end of the game. If we give him the benefit of the doubt like colleenlover does, then he may he conscious decision to lose. I personally don't see that as the case. I think he just suffered from underestimating his opponent--a lack of history and the realization that a female and UTR player could win the game and earn the majority of a jury's respect over a respected alpha male like himself. Keith being in Tina's pocket definitely seemed to be more the result of his obsession with destroying Jerri as he plainly told the camera. I'm sure she fed the fires of hatred, but I didn't see some sort of manipulative mastery from her based on the TV edit. Now, had Tina been able to pull off similar magic in ASS with neutrals Rupert and Rudy, then I could easily see the whole Benedict Tina angle. However, that obviously didn't happen 7.The raros voted for Yul due to Nates dumbass decision making skills and the fact that Adam figured that a unified tribe thats wrong is better then an ununified tribe.Also,Jonathan should of sided with the Raros. It would remove the HII,and make both factions dependent on his vote. The latter was due to Yul,but not the former. I guess you could compare it to Dannis play, but alot of other factors went into Yuls win,and I rank him higher The decision to target Yul wasn't dumb in and of itself. It ended up being "bad" for certain individuals due to the result. However, the rest of the options weren't particularly appealing and carried their own set of risks as well. If Yul didn't have the idol for instance, then not voting for him really would be stupid. Even with the idol, the reason why it was "dumb" to target Yul was because of his social connection to a self-interested strategic Jonathan. So if a mistake was made, it was having kept Jonathan around in the first place as well as Candice's decision to mutiny in the 1st place 10.Vecepia is a very good player, but she had little to do with Rotus demise. It was due to their own arrogance They really weren't THAT arrogant if you watch the video. It probably just seemed arrogant, because Neleh and Paschal finally smelled the roses and woke up. Vecepia definitely had help, as Sean and eventually Kathy were doing most of the politicking and begging to Neleh and Paschal to get their heads prior to the flip. I'd say the biggest luck factor though was the timing of the chop challenge which really sparked N and P's awareness that made them rethink their alliance infiltration in a way that probably wouldn't have occurred otherwise 12.Terry was a complete moron anyway(). He wasn't a moron. But I'd agree strategy wasn't his forte . I don't think too many people are "morons" 14.The stupidity of some players might be equated to Parvatis manipulation of them Exactly. It's not so much that people are stupid. It's when other players make them look stupid. It's more of a symbolic image than actually indicating true intelligence though. Even very smart individuals can be blindsided given the right circumstances. Even with like Jason or Erik's naivety, they were probably more aware competitors than the majority of the Borneo castaways were I think Danni is an otherwise supurb player, but Rafe was a huge idiot "Idiot" is a strong word my friend
SwineForkbeard		#2919	[-]
Posts: 1528 (05/16/08 4:28 PM) Registered user Reply Quote More Recent Posts Message Connection Block Invite	And panurge, if you're looking for hearsay evidence in Tina's favor, try digging up Amber's Stuff interview from 2001. She still seemed bitter over what took place, and in attempting to denigrate Tina, actually complimented her game. She agreed with the conventional wisdom here that there was far more to Tina than what was shown on TV, that she may have seemed like a sweet, lovable Southern hausfrau, but was actually the most conniving person out there.
Thailandsurvivor		#2920	[-]
Posts: 735 (05/16/08 4:37 PM) Reply Quote More Recent Posts Message Connection Block Invite	I know that I'm still one of the few who doesn't understand this, but why does Rafe always get so much slack around here? At the final 4, it seemed obvious to get rid of Lydia because it looked like Steph would take her to the end as a goat. She had been willing to backstab every other ally, why wouldn't she backstab him? With Danni in the final 3, he had a 100% chance of going to the finals (or thought so, in reality he had a 67% other than a 50%). The move at the end on his part has always looked like he tried to do some reverse pschology on her because he was second guessing his decision to get rid of Lydia (which understandly backfired even though I still think it was the better move for him. He doesn't do that and Lydia is the worst winner in history.) And I want to hear some other response besides he didn't make. I understood that, but he put himself in a position where he had himself and Steph both working together win the final challenge instead of him HAVING to win to make the finals.

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