Current Winner's Ranking
1. Yul Kwon
2. Earl Cole
3. Danni Boatwright
4. Chris Daughtery
5. Jenna Morasca
6. Tom Westman
7. Aras Baskauskas
8. Sandra-Diaz Twine
9. Vecepia Towery
10. Amber (Brkich) Mariano
11. Ethan Zohn
12. Brian Heidik
13. Richard Hatch
14. Tina Wesson
The winners are separated in tiers. Within these tiers, the candidates are pretty evenly skilled and at the same winner level
The ranking was based on the old criteria with consideration of all the criticisms, suggestions, and new info. For instance, Earl's victory gave a new perspective on some of the old winning styles. A focus on results and speculation on performance in different contexts is what defines the rating. The specifics of where exactly I ranked each candidate in relation to another, is largely decided by the luck of the winner during their winning season (and loser seasons) and the perceived skill of that individual in ALL their stints
Here's the breakdown of general winner categories:
Strong F3 Competition
1. Yul = Won against 1 strong and 1 decent final competitor
Decent F2 Competition
1. Aras = Won 5-2 against a competitor who backstabbed too many people and didn't do enough work around camp
2. Vecepia = Won 4-3against a decent competitor who'd happened to piss off more jury members than V did
3. Hatch = Won 4-3 against an alpha female who should've connected better to the young jury. Also, had subtle control over decision to be brought to finals
4. Tina = Won 4-3 against a fairly respected alpha male. Ranked lower than Hatch, because Colby made a bad decision, whereas Kelly made the right choice to bring Hatch
Goat-Takers
1. Earl = King of goat-takers. Flawless victory over 2 different types of goats. This is how you do it
2. Danni = 6-1 victory over a good player
3. Chris = 5-2 victory over an abrasive player
4. Tom = A 6-1 victory over a do-nothing
5. Jenna = 6-1 victory over a nice, hard-working guy who lacked social skills
6. Heidik = 4-3 victory over a do-nothing
Goat-Taken
1. Sandra = 6-1 victory over an Outcast
2. Amber = 4-3 victory over bad cop ASS dominator
3. Ethan = 5-2 victory a do-nothing
Here's a summary of an ASS analysis:
Borneo Hatch = #1 ASS Hatch = #14
Outback Tina = #1 ASS Tina = #18
Africa Ethan = #1 ASS Ethan = #11
Amazon Jenna = #1 ASS Jenna = #16
Outback Amber = #6 ASS Amber = #1
Most Lucky-Least Lucky On Rookie Season
1. Ethan
2. Tina
3. Jenna
4. Amber
5. Hatch
Most Lucky-Least Lucky On ASS Season
1. Amber
2. Ethan
3. Hatch
4. Jenna
5. Tina
SOME NOTES
* ASS Tina had the worst luck of any winner in any season
* All the ASS winners had worse luck than any of the winners from rookie seasons. However, ASS Ethan's luck falls around the same level as Sandra's (who had the worst luck of all the rookie season winners)
* Jenna's ASS finish doesn't count against her at all, since she quit the game under reasonable circumstances
* At that point in the game, she seemed to be doing fairly well, and it was likely she'd outlast both Hatch and Ethan
* Morasca's quitting was probably bad luck for Hatch. Not sure if it was good luck or bad luck for Ethan
The main factors I used in determining the ranking was:
(1) How much the winners dictated their own victory, and how much did they luck out?
(2) What type of competition the winners had
(3) If they did All-Stars, I assessed their performance on both seasons
Generally speaking, the winners of the latest seasons have had the most competition. Naturally, most contestants are familiar with past seasons, so everyone is pretty smart now. Contestants of earlier seasons, obviously were much more naïve. This isnt to take away from the victories of early winners like Richard and Tina. Hatch was a genius for his time, and deserves respect for the mark he made on the game. However, as All-Stars demonstrated, once everyone had gotten smarter, the winners werent anything special and couldnt compete against modern threats. Since this is a comparison BETWEEN different seasons, were forced to subject past winners to the most current and best standards right?
Disclaimer:
I dont have all the insider info on all the seasons. I only know what the episodes showed themselves. So feel free to report any incorrect facts or conclusions Ive made, and Ill adjust my opinions accordingly
This ranking speculates on which winner played the best game and who could reproduce their results in multiple contexts and situations. For the most part, ranking winners is non-quantifiable and subjective based on personal winner criteria and biases. That being said, Im going to give MY opinion based on what I believe are relatively objective standards
First off, to determine what makes the best winner, you have to understand what makes a contestant a winner. The following is my criteria for being a winner. If you dont agree, thats fine. Obviously, we automatically wont be coming to the same conclusions. Id still like to know your criteria though. If you do agree, we still might not come to the same conclusions, and Id also like to know why
Most people cite things like: social game, strategy, physical prowess, game control, etc. to be the determinants of being a winner. While, I agree to an extent, I dont think all of them are the #1 priorities. The #1 factor in determining whos a winner is LUCK. We all hate that fact and hate to acknowledge it, but its true. Theres that saying: Its better lucky than good. HOWEVER, the #2 factor in determining winners is the ability to manage ones personal luck (non-luck based skill)
Winning = Luck Factor + Skill Set
Luck Factor = Bad Luck + Good Luck; game factors that are outside of the player's direct control like production, nature, etc.
Skill Set = The ability to turn neutral opportunities into good luck or bad luck with skill or lack of skill
When ranking winners, I try to determine who won mainly from skill versus who mainly won from luck. It can be tough, because sometimes winners win by lots of luck, BUT it doesnt mean they couldnt have won with their skills and a different adversity ratio. 1 thing I liked about All-Stars (which I know old fans hated) was that it showed me how contestants handled different contexts where many of them automatically had lots of bad luck (AKA being huge targets). None of the previous winners made it to the merge, which tells me that they didnt have amazing skill that could overcome any and all odds. They mightve had lots of skill, great skills, etc. but not winning skills that could thrive in any situation. Will Kirby from Big Brother demonstrated that not all winners are automatically dead coming into a gamealthough most times, they pretty much are
Examples of the LUCK FACTOR:
(1) The quantity and quality of your opponents
(2) Interpersonal compatibility that cant be overcome by good social skills
(3) Tribal composition
(4) Completely new twists (i.e. Outcasts, Thailands mutiny, Africas tribal switch, etc.)
(5) Random Tie-Breakers = The Purple Rock mostly
(6) The environment one plays at (Australia vs. Cook Islands)
(7) The challenges and their timing of their appearance
(8) The timing of being sent to Exile Island to get the Hidden Immunity Idol
(9) Jury members that a contestant had absolutely no control in determining
Okay, so what skill sets make a winner?
(1) Jury Management
(A) Pre-Jury Management
(B) Final TC Jury Management
(2) Outlasting
(A) Outplaying
(B) Outwitting
(1) Jury Management
(a) #1 priority is making sure you have the majority of jury votes. Winning by a lot is nice, but isnt necessary. Voting majority (nice to win by a lot, but all you need is majority)
(b) Most jury members have made up their mind before the final TC even begins
(c) Gameplay styleHOW you OUTPLAY, OUTWIT, OUTLAST determines jury opinion
(1A) Pre-Jury Management
(a) Your ability to determine who is on the jury. This is done by through game control
(b) Your ability to assess the future jury
(c) The way you altered your gameplay style to match the jurys tastes
(d) The bonds you made with the jury are the parts where you can control your fate
(1B) Final Jury
The ability to sway votes at Final TC through speech or answers to jury questions. Dependent largely on ones communication skills, psychological assessments, manipulative ability, presentation, social tact, emotional management skills, and preparation
(2) Outlasting = Making final jury (top 2 or top 3)
(a) Outlasting = Voting control
(b) Outlasting > Outwitting > Outplaying. Outwit and outplaying are ultimately less essential components than outlasting. You can win by only outlasting, but not only outwitting or only outplaying
(c) 1 thing all the winners have in common is that they OUTLASTED, not OUTPLAYED the best or OUTWITTED the best
(d) However, to outlast, you often NEED to outwit and/or outplay
(2A) Outplaying
(a) Voting numbers advantage
(b) Alliances
(c) The ability to execute ones strategy and plans
(d) Rational decision-making
(e) Charisma
(f) Trust acquisition
(g) Coalition building
(h) Winning immunity
(i) Hidden immunity idol
(j) Working relationships
(k) Staying healthy = No bodily malfunctions or injuries
(l) Not quitting
(m) etc.
(2A) Outwitting
(a) Strategy = Game theory and number crunching
(b) Planning = Long-term and short-term; grasping opponent psychology and strategy
(c) Manipulation
(d) Persuasiveness
(e) Target formation
(f) Sandbagging = Making yourself a non-threat by throwing challenges, acting stupid, or seeming predictable by employing game integrity
(g) Flying-under-the-radar = Same as sandbagging, but actually being those things as opposed to faking it. Being so obviously weak that youre strong basically
(h) Scapegoating
(i) Information Management = Quantity and quality of information; knowledge is power; requires working relationships, open communication, an information network, and observation skills. Also includes misinformation (i.e. lying ability, cover stories, etc.)
(j) etc.
Here's how I would define UTR vs. Goat Gameplay:
Under-The-Radar = Being considered a lesser threat in comparison to other perceived competitors, and thus not targeted for elimination as heavily as those individuals. In addition, they often have the benefit of increased support like alliances where the weak gang up to take out the strong. UTR gameplay ranges from being considered strategically invisible or a non-threat to being considered a threat but secondary to another threat
Goat = Same as UTR except this individual has little chance of winning, because they are considered the worst of the remaining merge castaways. One has a chance of winning by being UTR and 2nd-to-worst, but no chance of being the absolute worst of the merge group. This individual isn't respected for various reasons, but the major ones are:
(1) Being disliked = Usually for meanness, laziness, etc.
(2) Riding coattails = Non-proactive gameplay; lucky
(3) Game leech = Not helpful to others in survival or game
(4) Comeback player = 2nd chance contestant
Notable F2 goats include:
(1) Kim J = Sucked at challenges until the very end. Was mainly not respected, because she was perceived to be dead-weight for her tribe, and didn't take any risks leaving her fate entirely in the hands of other players despite her disadvantageous game position. She helped no one in the game strategically except the boys alliance which would never have appreciated this loyalty and voted for one another over her before her (as they did). In other words, she had horrible individual strategy in order for her to win, and screwed over other contestants while she benefited from her association with them like a leech
(2) Clay = Disliked and not respected due to his laziness, lack of social skills, and possible racism/sexism
(3) Matthew = Seen as a late game player, but distinct from Neleh, because he also lacked social skills. Many people thought he was creepy or didn't connect with him. His jury performance was also weak and wishy-washy. However, he might not be a goat, because he was a hard worker and provider for camp
(4) Lill = #1 goat due to being an Outcast and return contestant within the season. In addition, she had a disadvantage as an older women who clearly was out-of-place in the relatively younger cast. Her moralizing as a boy scout troupe leader in contrast to her self-centered gameplay and usefulness to Fairplay for the majority of the merge also infuriated the jury. She essentially gave the game to Sandra at F2 when she took her to the end over Fairplay for non-strategic, personal reasons
(5) Katie = Was mean to contestants like Janu for no strategic reason. Rode coat-tails strategically and in tribe challenges (since she sat out in most challenges and was generally just weak) and backstabbed her alliance members. Different from UTR gameplay despite being conscious of her strategy, because she really didn't have much of a chance at winning once she turned on Greg and Jenn
(6) Stephennie (in Guatemala) = Despite being a good gameplayer, had little chance of winning due to her comeback status
I understand the reasons why people dislike UTR players, but not all UTR players are equal. I differentiated the types in a hierarchy starting from those who lucked into their UTR status to those who were proactively UTR as a conscious strategy
UTR Types
1. Underestimated
Individuals who are decent or strong players but aren't seen as threats due to opponent stupidity or lack of awareness.
They are not targeted, because they are surrounded by perceived greater threats OR they aren't targeted, because they're carried by an alliance which hasn't recognized that they are an opponent. Their UTR status is more the fault of the opponent than their own skill, but sometimes it's augmented by outside conditions. For instance, a non-F3 finisher like Amber in ASS had underestimated UTR status due to a lack of reputation. While she certainly encouraged her UTR status with her skill set, most of it came naturally due to underestimation
Examples of underestimated UTR winners:
(1) Tina
(2) Ethan
(3) Brian
(4) Amber
(5) Chris
(6) Danni
(7) Aras
All the winners have been underestimated at some point in the game, but this list reflects those who weren't targeted due primarily to poor judgment
2. Individual Immunity
Generally have the benefit of being seen as non-threatening due to some characteristic inherent to the player.
It's a paradoxical case of being strong by being "weak". Usually, the individual is frail, non-athletic, overweight, old, etc. and is considered non-threatning in challenges for individual immunity. They generally have severe early game weaknesses, but if they can overcome this phase, they have large advantages in the late-game (merge)
Examples of II UTR winners:
(1) Tina
(2) Vecepia
(3) Sandra
3. Interdependent
Submissive or reactive gameplay where one "rides" on the strategy of others in order to seem predictable, less strategic, and/or loyal. Often labeled, "riding coat-tails,"
because people want to separate players into discrete categorical individuals and action, and try to assign credit and responsibility to a 1-man unit as opposed to a group. Not always respected, although it really should be, since it's conscious strategy involving skills. Occurs on both the individual level (floating), duo level (partnership), and group level (going with majority and/or alliances)
Examples of Reactive UTR winners:
(1) Ethan
(2) Vecepia
(3) Jenna
(4) Sandra
(5) Amber
(6) Chris
(7) Danni
(8) Aras
Again, all winners have rode coat-tails to some degree. This list those individuals who were shielded as targets specifically due to group action
4. Sandbagging
Similar to underestimation, but here we give credit to the players themselves for consciously using their skills to hide their skills. Done mostly by men, because women are usually in a position where they need to tout their strengths whereas males have to seem less threatning. Some good examples of effective sandbagging are Cesternino's "goofy kid" act or Heidi's hiding of her high IQ
Examples of sandbagging UTR winners:
(1) ASS Hatch
(2) Brian
(3) Amber
(4) Tom
(5) Danni (not sure, but probably)
(6) Aras
(7) Yul
Often times people use multiple types of UTR gameplay to maximize their manuvering ability and game control. I think it's most important to remember that UTR is a broad, flexible strategy that anybody can use. Labeling a player as UTR often serves to cover up the complexity and specifications of the micro-strategy involved in cultivating that game position. For instance, people may call Sandra and Amber UTR players. However, within that category, they both took vastly different approaches in utilizing the non-target status
Feel free to add to UTR tactics that I forgot or neglected to mention
Season Structure Types
A lot of the seasons are VERY different from one another (not just ASS). If you wanted to get technical, you could say the season formats can be grouped together like:
Group I = Basic Format
Original Format
1. Borneo = The original "experiment"; 2 tribes + merge
2. Australia = Same format as Borneo, but alliance-ready contestants
Basic Format + Dud Mutiny + Fake Merge
5. Thailand = No mutiny, so it became the same as Australia essentially, but fake merge impacted results
Early Mingling
10. Palau = Similar to basic format except that all the contestants had a chance to mingle with 1 another and form alliances in the first few early days before being split up; 2 players got booted without a TC. Also a 1-time Exile Island might have influenced the Janu boot/quit
Group II = Twisters
Mid-Game Switch-Em Format
3. Africa
4. Marquesas
Gender Split + Mid-Game Switch-Em
6. Amazon
9. Vanuatu = Switch-em went down differently than Amazon's
Group III = Exile Island & Hidden Immunity Idol
HII & Exile Island + 4-Tribe Gender/Age Division + Mini-Merge
12. Panama = 4-man, 4 tribes expired after 1 episode
HII & Exile Island + 4-Tribe Race Division + Mini-Merge + Mid-Game Mutiny + Bottle Twist
13. Cook Islands = Similar to Panama except different division type and mutiny + bottle twist; 5-man, 4-tribes expired after 2 episodes
Early-Game Mingling + Class Twist + Mid-Game Switch-Em + 2 HII/Exile Island + 2 Bottle Twists
14. Fiji = Has most twists evah with the have/have-not twist being most notable
Group IV = Comebacks
2 Returning Tribemates
7. Pearl Islands = Abrupt start/village bargaining + Outcast
2 Returning Survivors + Switch-Em + HII
11. Guatemala = Had 2 comeback contestants like PI, but the returnees were from the season before as opposed to from that season; returnees were not a mid-game surprise twist but known from the start. Had a 1-time expiring HII
All Returning Survivors + 3 Tribe-Format + Mini-Merge + Switch-Em
8. ASS = The whole cast was a bunch of star returnees. Only season with 3-tribe format
* 1 thing to note, I didn't note double-boot twists, because I'm not sure when those started exactly. Vanuatu? Those have happened pretty frequently and also added another dimension to the game
* One might assume that at least some of the contestants from later seasons have accumulated knowledge about all, most, or some of the previous seasons prior to going on the show
As you can see, the game is drastically different from season to season, even within groups. That's why I find it pointless to whine about "unfairness" and how different the seasons are and try to throw certain formats out (like ASS) as illegitimate. I say we acknowledge the differences and try to factor them in, but consider each season as legitimate and valid
In terms of my rankings, I feel they reflect the added complexity of later seasons better than the earlier seasons. There's a great deal of twists and many more factors which had to be dealt with
It's plausible that players who won Survivor against weaker competition couldve thrived against stronger competition, in which case they should be ranked higher. However, since I dont have such data at my disposal, I must assess them from what I have seen from them. A more detailed analysis of each winner, their game, and their season follows below:
1. Richard Hatch
A. Good Luck
(1) Environment allowed him to use providing abilities
(2) Fortunate to find similar-minded allies on tribe
(3) Isolated and loyal Rudy
(4) Naïve Opponents = free ride to final 5
(5) Seans alphabet voting system ensured Pagong dominance, while also saving Hatch, who was the secondary target that council
(6) Sue and Kellys rift = free ride to final 3
B. Bad Luck
(1) Age or homosexual disadvantage?
C. Jury Management (4-7)
(1) Persuaded jury to vote rationally and game-based
(2) Viewed as a strategic mastermind & Pagong alliance leader
(3) Throwing the final challenge kept Rudys winning vote intact
D. Voting Control
(1) #1 provider earned him respect, early safety on Pagong, and Rudy
(2) Helped formed Survivors 1st alliance which controlled early-mid game
(3) Fooled Tagi & Sean long enough to gain voting advantage
(4) Never had complete control of his own Pagong alliance
(5) Almost got votes tied up in episode 9 and 13
(6) Had basically guaranteed his way into the final 2 at final 3
E. Skill sets
(1) Best asset was staying focused and realizing Survivor is a game
(2) 2nd best skill was being a provider
(3) Decent social game. His arrogance annoyed people, but he had working relationships
(4) Demonstrated versatility in All-Stars and attempted to be a dynamic non-threat. However, he remained targeted and his plan backfired, because he hadnt cultivated any allies. 1st won voted off on his tribe
2. Tina Wesson
A. Good Luck
(1) Being apart of the magical 5-person alliance which formed before even arriving at camp
(a) Targeted Kel. Old females are most vulnerable at the very beginning of the game. The more time that passes, the stronger such individuals become
(2) Jerri indirectly revealed her personal boot order at 2nd tribal council. This gave Tina the heads-up (and Tina was smart enough to form an alliance with Keith and Colby)
(3) Weak competition
(a) Jerri = Annoying and threatening. Really helped Tina bond with Elisabeth and Rodger, and strengthened "good people" bond and future merge majority alliance
(b) Kel & Keith = Weak alpha male competition (social outcasts); Colby actually took Keith over Tina for personal reasons, because he couldn't stand Keith that much
(c) Kimmi = Leaked Kucha voting history which got Jeff eliminated; Tina gets credit for at least asking for such info though
(d) Colby = Tool; he misjudged jury mentality and Tina as a threat
(e) Kucha quitting way too early (especially Varner) at the merge IC, when a tiebreaker and future tribe majority was at stake
(f) Elisabeth = Either settled for 4th/5th or was naive and thought Tina would somehow choose her and Rodger for old tribemates Rodger and Colby; didn't take advantage of the opportunities
afforded by the Ogakor's backstabbing of Jerri before Kucha was completely marginalized and a blindsided Amber was still around
(4) Mike Skupin falling into the fire
(a) Likely saved Ogakor extermination
B. Bad Luck
(1) Age disadvantage on a young tribe
C. Jury Management (4/7)
(1) Humble and tactful game-based speech; I notice that Amber gave a similar speech in All-Stars
(2) Viewed as a strategic mastermind
(3) Jerri voted against Coby, not really for Tina
D. Voting Control
(1) Went with majority for Kel & Maralyn boots
(2) Realized position and sided with Keith & Colby to oust Mitchell
(3) Bonded and manipulated Rodger, Elizabeth, & Colby into making non-rational game decisions in her favor
(4) Betraying Amber was a calculated risk that paid off
E. Skill sets
(1) Versatile social skills. However, her reputation as a social game genius died in All-Stars. She couldnt persuade Rupert or Rudy, who are both supposedly big on integrity, to get rid of Jerri over her! Shes still great at sales, but not out-of-this-world apparently
(2) Demonstrated awareness in both seasons
(3) Strategic planner. Any potential reputation as a strategic genius died in All-Stars. She had a huge target on her as a winner, but she could have maneuvered herself into an alliance with Rupert and Rudy earlier. She didnt attempt to make one until it was too late. Shes still a good strategist though, just not a distinct one
(4) Persuasive
(5) Has inherent severe early game weakness as a weak challenger. She was the 1st boot of All-Stars, since she was a worthless tool, and the now competent players knew it. It proved that shell thrive when underestimated, but fails under adversity as an actual target
3. Ethan Zohn
A. Good Luck
(1) Compatibility with the Boran males who were put on his tribe
(2) Clarences food greediness which made him an outsider
(3) Samburu implosion which gave Boran strategic advantage at the tribal switch
(4) Brandons incompatibility with Frank which caused him to backstab the Samburu coup, which SAVED Lex and thus spared Ethan, Tom, and Kim from becoming the strategic minority. This would have likely ended Ethans game, and he did nothing to make these turn of events happen
(5) Ethan was basically carried into the final 4, because his opponents sucked
(a) Tom made himself too golden on the jury, so he was booted instead of Ethan or Lex. Kim J. won immunity, so shes the 1 who made this possible. The original plan was to boot Kim
(b) Kim J. took Ethan to the final 2, because she as an emotional decision-maker. Lex was too dislikable to her and won too many challenges, and she didnt think she could win no matter who she took to the final jury
B. Bad Luck = None really. Everything went his way that I can think of. He had no real strategic adversity happen to him
C. Jury Management (5/7)
(1) Had everyones (but Kim & Kelly) votes before going into Final TC, but mainly because Kim J. was totally pathetic in the jurys eyes
(2) Gave 1 of the worst final TC performances, when he offended Brandon during Q&A period and actually LOST his vote
D. Voting Control
(1) Controlled early and mid-boots with Boran boys club alliance
(2) Almost lost control of game at Kelly boot, and wouldve been in the minority but was saved by Brandon
(3) Continued to Pagong Samburu with Boran alliance
(4) Didnt have direct control over last 2 votes
(a) Kim wouldve been eliminated, but she won last 2 immunities
(b) Its possible he threw the last 2 challenges on purpose, in which case Id say he had control over events and was strategic. Otherwise, he seems like an incredibly lucky winner
E. Skill set
(1) Average in challenges. Not really an alpha male in either seasons. He consistently lost to Lex and Tom in Africa. He did well on 1 challenge for Saboga in All-Stars. However, he also lost one for his tribe for stupidity. He also lost a challenge for Mogo-Mogo for untying knots slower than
Rob Mariano. The main reason he survived as long as he did was he was the only alpha male on a weak Saboga
(2) Failed as provider in All-Stars
(3) If he had any other skill, itd be social skills, but I didnt see anything special in either Africa or All-Stars. Demonstrated limited persuasiveness. He failed to convince Rupert to save Tina even with the lure of a 4-unit alliance and failed to save himself when Lex said he was cutting him loose in All-Stars
(4) Strategically, he is average. He tends to rely on male alliances to carry him, although this failed him in All-Stars. Although people dont think of him this way, his other main strategy is flying under-the-radar. He outlasted Hatch & Colby on Mogo Mogo by being a useful voting pawn. In Africa, being UTR got him the W. In All-Stars though, he was
automatically on the radar as a winner, plus Lex knew his game. Other than riding coattails, hes never had a proactive strategy
4. Vecepia Towery
A. Good Luck
(1) Maraamu leadership power struggle kept her off the chopping block at a crucial time given her position as a middle-aged female ethnic minority. The more time that passes, the more she becomes a powerhouse
(2) Had Seans African-American loyalty
(3) Purple Rock eliminated Paschal
(4) The tribal switch might be considered good luck, because Rotu felt much
more betrayed by Neleh, which basically gave Vecepia the win
B. Bad Luck
(1) Being a middle-aged female ethnic minority makes you a potential early target
(2) Rotu dominance
(3) Tribal switch. Before that, she had majority power on Maraamu
C. Jury Management
(1) Game-based speech helped her win indifferent jury votes over Neleh
(2) Many votes were against Neleh, because of the supposed hypocrisy of being religiously moral while lying and backstabbing Rotu during the game, and the fact that Neleh started playing the game late
(3) Making a final 2 deal with Neleh, likely lost Kathys vote actually. She probably wouldve been taken no matter what anyways
D. Voting Control
(1) Caught on the outside with Sean after the 1st vote
(2) Gained majority by joining Sean and Rob & Sarah and booting Patricia
(3) Booted potential strong competitor Hunter at the 3rd vote
(4) Lost control due to bad luck and being in the minority, but adapted, floated, and kissed ass for the Gabriel and Rob boots
(5) Joined non-Rotu 4 and eliminated that alliance
(6) Tried to save Sean over Neleh, but was unable to persuade Kathy
(7) Won immunity and maintained a working relationship with Kathy, saving
her at the voting tie, which ultimately lead to Paschals ouster
(8) Dictated final 3 decision
(a) Had a Final 2 deal with Kathy going into the Final 3
(b) Gave Neleh final immunity after a Final 2 agreement; likely going to be taken by Neleh anyways since Kathy was best liked on the jury
E. Skill Sets
(1) Demonstrated clear versatility, openness, floating ability, and social skills
(2) Had plenty of working relationships
(3) Was relatively aware (switched gears after 1st episode and Rotu 4 Pagonging) and worked numbers
(4) Seen as weak but won key challenges, and used immunity idol as strategic leverage (with Kathy)
(5) Smart enough to let expendable allies go (Rob) and float with majority
(6) Able and willing to make the tough rational decisions
5. Brian Heidik
A. Good Luck
(1) Sook Jais strong challenge competitors were idiots and eliminated early
(2) Sook Jai implosion led them to throw a challenge to cut Jed
(3) Chuay Gahns had majority advantage at the merge
(4) Ghandia killed potential alliance with Ted, weakening Chuay Gahn females and Ted
(5) Shii Anns merge mistake spared Brian from the same maneuvering she did in All-Stars and potentially different results
(6) Helen, Jan, and Ted were total tools
(a) Ted had an irrational game trust for Brian as mentioned above
(b) Helen had an irrational game trust for Brian simply because he worked hard around camp
(c) Jan was isolated politically by the men and Helen (who made her an outsider when she voted against Ghandia out to Jans surprise). Instead of thinking long-term, she ended up being a short-term thinking pawn
(7) Final 2 opponent Clay sucks
(a) Ted wasnt compatible with Clay, so by default, he trusted the other maleBrian. He also trusted Helen when she told him that Clay made racist comments about him. If he did, Survivor did not ever show them on TV, and even Probst mentioned this lack of critical thinking and blind following at the finale
(b) Clays reputation as a lazy, pathetic, small, stupid redneck made it difficult for his fellow tribemates to respect him and admit that he outplayed them
B. Bad Luck = Brian faced virtually zero strategic adversity. I cant think of anything
C. Jury Management
(1) Manipulated Chuay Gahn and mitigated Helen & Teds anger at him
(a) Deflected Helen & Teds anger with cover story
(b) Understood Chuay Gahn psychology and pushed his work ethic which was Clays biggest fault
(2) Totally pissed off and lost Sook Jais votes
(a) Ken called Heidik out for his lies, but Ted and Helen are tools
(b) Didnt even attempt to bond with Sook Jai
(3) Votes were anti-Clay, more than pro-Brian
(a) Clay lost Helens vote when he didnt respect her jury question
(b) Clay lost Chuay Gahn votes, because he was lazy
(c) Clay had blown up at Jake and offended him
D. Voting Control
(1) Bonded with males and controlled Chuay Gahn after Ghandias boot
(2) Gained tribe control after Teds boot, since he had an exclusive alliance with Clay, and was able to manipulate both Helen and Jan who didnt work together
(3) Had immunity for the last 3 boots
E. Skill sets
(1) Best skill was his social skills. He didnt bond with Sook Jai at all, so I cant give him an A. However, he was a very good liar and manipulator
(2) Rational decision-maker
(3) Controlled end-game and left multiple strategic options open
6. Jenna Morasca
A. Good Luck
(1) Gender split probably enhanced her long-term power. Putting the guys on an all-male tribe, made them value females much more, and even more willing to ally with the good-looking girls
(2) Annoying and stupid Roger took control of the males at Tambaqui
(3) Compatibility with Young Jamburu & Deena = Alliance
(4) Tribal switch led to strong allies. The instant compatibility was lucky
B. Bad Luck
(1) Jenna was initially on all-female Jamburu, which was bad since it meant she couldnt use some of her strongest assets (like looks, flirting, etc.)
(2) Had some tough competition, especially gameplayer Rob Cesternino
C. Jury Management
(1) Game-based speech didnt piss the jury off, while Matthews integrity talk turned everyone off
(2) Respected as a player and underdog
(3) Well-liked by the jury too
(4) Seen as clearly superior to Matthew
D. Voting Control (6/7)
(1) Christy voted against her in the 1st boot
(2) Joined majority alliance on Jaburu
(3) Joined majority alliance on Neo-Jaburu
(4) Part of Jacares majority alliance of which controlled first 3 merge boots
(5) Lost control and was on the outside of majority alliance for the rest of the
game (4 boots)
(6) Had a working relationship with Rob, and outlasted Christy and Heidi
(7) Spared self by winning last 2 immunities and the Christy boot (wouldve been her probably)
(8) Dictated finale competitor by winning final immunity
E. Skill sets
(1) Mingled with most of the females, assessing who was strong, who could be an ally, etc. Jenna posted here that she got along well with Joanna, so I don't think it was a high school old girls vs. young cute girls thing necessarily like how it was portrayed on TV. Heidi was the one who actually made that statement not Jenna
(2) Found a solid ally and strategist in Heidi, and the young girls formed an alliance. Joanna and Jeanne clearly were becoming a tight alliance, and when they pushed Deena forward to be the leader, that probably made Deena not trust Jeanne anymore and more willing to side with the younger girls
(3) Jenna plays social chameleon doing the whole women rule men drool ra-ra speeches (as shown on TV). Meanwhile, she also flirts during the inter-gender reward challenge and opens some doors. I loved how she flattered Rob C. at that challenge, and Alex made it clear she'd gotten his attention as well. This would be key to their later alliance IMO
(4) Not sure when it happened, or if it was bolstered by Shawna's flakiness, but Heidi and Jenna probably formally established themselves as a partnership or tight alliance
(5) Swap happens. Dave makes it clear it's women vs. men, despite Jenna's openness. I think Jenna said she got quite a bit of info from this encounter in 1 of her posts here, so it wasn't just Dave using her or anything. So anyways, Jenna picks herself a damn good team, while Dave recruits a dangerous mole Heidi
(6) Jenna maintains good relations with everybody in her swap tribe, although I'm not sure what her relationship with Matt was lol. In any case, Rob C. invites her into the new tribe alliance, and she floats with the majority willing to boot Shawna for the reasons she mentioned above
(7) At the merge, Heidi and her get back together, where they probably share information that they've gathered about both sides. In other words, they divided and conquered, which is a great strategy. The majority (Jaburu II + Heidi) decide to boot Roger, since he's annoying, and because Heidi smartly pointed out that having him on the jury would be a disadvantage to all the women in a final vote, because he's likely a sexist
(8) After Dave goes, Deena plays leader and tries to cut Alex. Knowing she needs to get Heidi worked into a more solid position, Jenna is with the anti-Deena boot, to break-up her pairing with Cesternino, eliminate a pretty good player, strengthen the core majority alliance, and secure the trust of Alex further under the guise of tribe alliance disloyalty. This leaves targets around still (the outsiders and alpha male Alex)
(9) The new 4-person alliance is formed between Cesternino, Alex, Heidi, and Jenna. Cesternino, being no dummy, realizes that without Deena, his position is a bit weaker, and then Alex blows it for Jenna and Heidi when he openly admits that Rob is the 4th wheel of the group. At that point, a well-connected Cesternino jumps ship, organizes his mutiny of the disenfranchised, and boot Alex marginalizing the girls. This is when Jenna lost overt game control, and had to play a floater game
(10) Cesternino proposes allying with Jenna to F2. She tries to stir doubt with his allies, by calling him out in front of everybody and that he'd offered her an alliance. This plan doesn't work out as well as Jenna liked, so her and Heidi come up with a plan to turn Christy and Rob against one another. Heidi approaches Christy, since the latter didn't get along with Jenna, while Jenna went to Rob. According to Morasca, "We thought if Heidi put pressure on Christy and made her wishy washy it might work and at the same time I was going to Rob saying 'you know Christy cant be trusted, shes wishy washy, she has never voted with an alliance and always voted the way she wanted (which was true on the show 99.99% of the time we were there she did what she wanted voting wise) and you cant gamble having a person like that in the game at this point' I think the combo of both Heidi and myself worked and Christy decided like usual that she was going to vote for whomever she wanted and decide when she was going to pick which person to vote for, which ultimately showed Rob what I was saying about her was true she was wishy washy and did what she wanted voting wise not with an alliance. Luckily, for our sake, Rob decided that he wanted to get rid of Christy, she was too big of a liability, and Heidi and I were open to that because that meant we stayed another week". Jenna also smartly takes a calculated risk and gives immunity to Heidi to help ensure Christy is targeted, knowing she is seen as a lesser threat. This also helped demonstrate her loyalty, which could be contrasted with some individuals' emotional disgust for Cesternino's backstabbing gameplay should she end up in the F2 with him
(11) Cesternino is very open that the girls are going next, and that Butch-Matt-Cesternino are sticking together to F3. Jenna has her breakdown at this point, but she's said that everyone has had similar ones on the show. She claims to never wanting to quit for real, since she was a huge Survivor fan and I believe her on that. Heidi gets eliminated, as Jenna is seen as a weaker threat
(12) Jenna goes on her immunity run and pwns the men, making her 1 of the coolest female players in Survivor history in my book. She goes from talking about wanting to quit to deciding her F2 partner, and smartly picks Matt out as the weaker competitor. She also pretends that he is the more deserving opponent to make herself look better rather than looking like a goat-taking opportunist
(13) Throughout the game and in the jury vote, Jenna is smart enough to keep her speeches consistent and focused on her gameplay, not integrity and crap that will piss the jury off. She also remains tactful, polite, and keeps it simple, and is rewarded with an overwhelming 6-1 vote--1 of the biggest blow-outs in Survivor history, and the biggest one at the time (only recently trumped by Earl's win)
* I think for the most part, Jenna's distinguishing characteristics as a winner is her social game, being a pretty good strategist (knowing how to fly UTR but also make sure she's always in the majority alliance) and the fact that she is a strong female. She's not so intimidating that people consider her a challenge threat, but she is clearly good enough to go on a challenge run in the late game when she has to. She's right around the middle which is 1 of the best positions as a player. In my opinion, it's very advantageous to be a strong female or a weak male. Weak females often have huge early game weaknesses, while alpha males have large late game weaknesses
7. Sandra Diaz-Twine
A. Good Luck
(1) Rupert
(a) Drake dominance
(b) Loyal to allies
(c) Distracting target
(2) Not caught for Fishgate, because Christa got accused
(3) Able to utilize Spanish-speaking skills at game start was huge, because it made her a valuable resource at a critical time. As a weak female competitor, her biggest danger comes at the start of the game, but she
gets stronger UTR power as time goes on
(4) Outcast twist helped kill Morgan (Lil)
(5) Jon & Lil
(a) Sandra benefited from Fairplays strategy and game control
(b) Opponent incompatibility between Jons disrespect and evil gameplay and Lils sense of integrity + Lils final challenge victory got Sandra the win
B. Bad Luck
(1) Ethnic Minority
(2) Outcast Twist brought Burton back and really altered the game
C. Jury Management
(1) Up-front game-based speech; As Long As Its Not Me was respected by the jury
(2) Many votes were against Outcast Lil
D. Voting Control (6/7)
(1) Formed majority with Jon, Christa, Trish, and Rupert
(2) Stayed loyal to Rupert with Christa and flipped script on Jon and Trish
(3) Solid alliance with Rupert and Christa eliminated Shawn
(4) Balboa majority (Drake + Outcasts) eliminated Andrew and Ryan
(5) New Balboa majority (Morgan + Outcasts) eliminates Rupert, making Sandra and Christa the minority; she voted against rational Fairplay
(6) Completely saved Christa and herself, by making Tijuana and Burton the top targets, by revealing key info to Morgan and dealing with Fairplay
(7) No control; new majority (Outcasts + Fairplay) eliminate Christa
(8) Females get together and boot Burton; completely avoids being targeted
(9) Completely avoids being targeted again and eliminates Darrah threat
(10) Had no real control over final challenge but wasnt offensive like Fairplay
E. Skill sets
(1) Sandra is an interesting strategic evaluation. On the 1 hand, shes not a long-term planner, so she benefited from good luck and underestimation. However, in most of the cases, she was surprisingly in control of the boots if one looks at her voting control. Since her strength was being UTR, she used that to her full advantage, taking out the right individuals and setting up others as targets. Her #1 priority was, As long as its not me philosophy which is smart, because too many times, Survivors think too long-term and screw themselves, because they don't keep things simple. Instead she kept things simple
(2) At the same time, she was proactive when she needed to. The best example was booting Tijuana over Burton on episode 11, while simultaneously setting Darrah up. At the time, I did not understand this. However, this move simultaneously eliminated a potential power duo (Morgan alliance), a potential UTR floater (Tijuana), kept big targets in
the game (Burton), and set Darrah up as a target. Also, her non-emotional, business-style of playing earned her the long-term respect of the jury
(3) She also stayed ethnically consistent in the game, playing dirty against dirty players (Fairplay), while staying loyal to players who valued integrity (Rupert), showing her versatility and ability to adjust her gameplay style accordingly. If she had to, she was willing to flip on Rupert eventually
(4) In terms of social skills, she wasnt socially tactful all the time, but she was respected for straight-shooting. She had plenty of working relationships at all times and could be fairly persuasive. 1 of her smartest game moves was the innovative sneaking around trick, that really helped change the game up. She also kept her mouth shut when Christa was blamed for Fishgate
8. Amber Mariano
A. Good Luck
(1) On the same tribe as Rob Mariano
(2) Non-Notable reputation = Underestimated target
(3) Chaperan dominance
(4) Jenna Morasca quitting
(5) Robs Influence Over Lex & Kathy (Pre-Existing Friendship)
(6) Carried by Stupid, Stupid Chaboga-Mogo (especially Rob)
(7) Threat of Purple Rock helped influence Jenna to betray Rupert
B. Bad Luck
(1) Sue Hawk quitting
(2) Tribal Switch = Only Chaperan sent to Mogo-Mogo
C. Jury Management
(1) Tactful jury speech; admitted she was lucky and rode coattails. Speech and answers were tailored to jury, because she mentioned in post-game interviews that contestants would talk about how they hated when
winners didnt acknowledge the role of luck
(2) Majority of votes were against Rob, because of his dirty gameplay
(3) Treated Shii Ann like a human while everyone else on Chaboga-Mogo ignored her, earning her respect and the winning vote
D. Voting Control (4/7)
(1) Invited into a primary alliance with Rob
(2) Formed Chaperan core majority with Tom which booted Cesternino
(3) No direct control over first 7/8 boots, but had impact via tribe immunity
(4) Outlasted Jerri by persuading Mogo-Mogo to flip using logic and Rob
(5) Formed Chaboga-Mogo majority
(a) Had a pre-existing Chapera alliance with Tom and Alicia
(b) Formed an alliance with Jenna and Rupert with Rob
(c) Was willing to go with Lex, Kathy, and Tom, but Rob convinced her to stick with Chapera
(d) Dictated first 5 merge boots
(6) Persuaded Jenna to turn on Rupert by appealing to her greed and logic
(7) Ultimately guaranteed into final 2 once Jenna was eliminated
E. Skill Set
(1) Great social game and well-liked by everyone in both her seasons. She also seduced Rob! She was the one shown doing the sales pitch to Jenna and Rupert on allying with her and Rob. She also seemed to have a working relationship with Tom and Alicia as well, so she didnt simply ride Robs coat-tails
(2) Showed true gamesmanship when she got screwed at tribal switch and
successfully persuaded Chaboga Mogo to keep her over Jerri
(3) Flew under the radar and let Rob control the game
(4) Understood jury mentality
(5) Never a weak link in challenges
(6) Strategically, Id say Rob ran the show. He was the one who convinced her to stick with Chaboga-Mogo instead of Lex, Kathy, and Tom. However, her simple strategy of playing good cop with Rob, earned her the million, because she made a good choice in picking her partner. Her strategy in both seasons is to be a loyal ally to a powerful, less likeable individual. In in All-Stars, she improved upon this, by adding extension alliances and with Rob became a floating partnership (Robs shady experience largely helped here)
9. Chris Daugherty
A. Good Luck
(1) Compatible with Elder Lopevi who outnumbered Young Lopevi
(2) Eliza = outcasted + willing to make strategic moves(3) Leann boot opportunity. The loved one challenge helped Alinta have pity for Chris and the girls got soft. Then, Twila hand-fed Chris the strategy to flip
B. Bad Luck
(1) Smart, female power opponents (especially Ami)
(2) Tribal switch led to 2 smart, secret opponents (especially Julie) infiltrating Lopevi
C. Jury Management
(1) Deflected anger from Lea (Sarge), Julie, and Eliza
(2) Many votes were against abrasive Twila
(3) Underdog
D. Voting Control (5/7)
(1) Formed majority alliance on Lopevi with the old guys booting all 4 young
guys, whod probably be large threats later on
(2) Lost all control on Alinta at Rorys boot
(3) Voted with majority at Leas (Sarge) boot
(4) Voted against majority at Chads boot
(5) Took advantage of an opportunity to ally with Eliza and Twila & Scout, and became Alintas majority at Leanns boot; alliance with Eliza made Scout the back-up target
(6) Set-up Eliza by booting Julie; pitted Twila against Eliza (controlling vote)
(7) Controlled final 2 votes, because he won immunity
E. Skill Sets
(1) Strategically, Chris understood basic numbers, think rationally, and how to float with the power. Despite crappy performance on 1st challenge, managed to outlast young guys and form Lopevis majority alliance. He also outlasted Lopevi on Alinta as the last guy standing, and his vote
against Sarge instead of Julie or Eliza likely helped his position. Chris knew how to fly under the radar and become a non-target, despite the fact that he was a male challenge threat. He never lost focus, didnt get cocky once he had power, and pitted the females against one another
(younger girls versus older womenespecially Twila and Eliza) to distract them from himself
(2) His strength was his social game. He seemed to read the females very well and play their emotions, best evidenced at the final tribal council. He got the females to sympathize with him, giving him the winning opportunity he needed to flip the power of the game. He was able to make the tough rational decisions and then mitigate hurt feelings
(3) He demonstrated persuasiveness, some charisma, and had working relationships
(4) In terms of awareness, he was out-of-the-loop at times and had some verbal slips that couldve cost him. Overall, no huge mistakes though
10. Tom Westman
A. Good Luck
(1) On Koror with most of his early allies
(2) Compatible with Jenn & Gregg
(3) Ulong sucking; at least, they sucked at the worst timing possible
(4) Jeff Wilson, possibly Ulongs last hope, rolling his ankle and essentially
quitting
(5) Koror Dominance
(6) Ians sense of integrity and bond
B. Bad Luck
(1) Somewhat forced into stepping up as a leader
(2) Age minority
C. Jury Management
(1) Highly respected for tribe leadership and relative integrity
(2) Katie was seen as a pathetic opponent for her poor treatment of certain tribe members, laughable tribe contributions, and reactive gameplay
D. Voting Control (6/7)
(1) Indirect influence over 8 Koror boots, by leading Ulong to sweep
(2) In Ulong majority alliance with Ian, Katie, Jennifer, and Gregg
(a) Katie was secretly working with Jennifer and Gregg
(b) Determined Coby, Janu, and Stephenies boots
(3) Gregg is ousted
(a) Reward jealousy shakes up Ulong dominating alliance
(b) Caryn and Ian inform Tom of Gregg and Jennifer threat
(c) Tom is willing to take tie risk
(4) Wins the final 3 immunities
(a) Keeps gentlemans agreement with Ian, and Katie goes with Ian
(b) Votes for Ian to leave, but Ian wins tie-breaker against Jen
(c) Ian gives final immunity up to Tom and tells him to take Katie
E. Skill Sets
(1) On first instinct, I thought Tom was a very lucky winner. I felt Ian basically just gave him the game. While, I feel Tom was lucky that Ian broke down, I now feel he had a large influence on Ian as well. Toms gameplay was to bully people with threats and intimidation, and he did the same to Ian. First, Tom had gained Ians respect and they had
created a bond. So Tom deserves credit for having an emotional hold on Ian in the 1st place. Then, Tom was a good verbal analyst who picked up on Ians careless remarks and correctly identified the subtext of Ians statements. By calling Ian out on his deceit multiple times, it led to Ians
psychological breakdown, which culminated on the maddening final endurance challenge where a guilt-ridden Ian decided hed rather quit and come away with a friendship then potentially lose everything. So while Tom was lucky Ian was a weak opponent (psychologically and emotionally), he did make a lot of his own success happen
(2) In terms of social skills, he didnt endear himself to certain contestants. He also lacked social tact and persuasive skills in several instances
(3) Strategically, he was very simple and a bit naïve. His best move was allying with Ian and Katie. He wouldve been blindsided, if it wasnt for Ians jealousy at 1 of the rewards and Caryns help. While not strategically flexible, his game integrity and relative predictability paid off with his alliance
(4) His greatest strength was his challenge dominance, which opened up many strategic opportunities. However, compared to other seasons, he had relatively little challenge competition, so his dominance should be taken with a grain of salt
(5) Alpha male status earned him respect and long-term positioning
11. Danni Boatwright
A. Good Luck
(1) Dysfunctional Neo-Nakum (Jamie & Judd) helped further her game
(2) Compatibility with Rafe helped win her the game
(3) Rafe & Stephenies Stupidity
(a) Unnecessary Backstabbing
(b) Cindy (Car Curse) & Lydia Boots Over Danni
(c) Not realizing how big of a threat Danni was
(4) Immunity Challenge Advantage Opportunity
B. Bad Luck
(1) Nakum Merge Advantage
C. Jury Management
(1) Well liked by the jury
(2) Underdog
(3) Many votes were against Stephanie
D. Voting Control (6/7)
(1) Went with former Nakum to boot Blake over Brian, likely earning Gary and Amys trust in the process
(2) Non-formal Yaxha majority with Gary, Bobby Jon, and Brandon booted Brian and Amy
(3) Became a minority at merge
(a) On the outside of the first 2 merge bootsBrandon & Bobby Jon
(b) Floated with Neo-Nakum which booted Jamie and Gary
(4) Formed new Xhakum majority (Danni, Rafe, and Stephenie)
(a) Bonded with Rafe after Garys ouster
(b) Won a crucial immunity which led to Judds boot
(c) Cindy and Lydia
(5) Won final immunity and dictated final opponent
E. Skill Set
(1) Strategically, she kept things simple, but played her roles well. She made good decisions in picking allies (Gary and Rafe), acquired their trust, used them, and then cut them loose. She was also a strong female challenge competitor who knew when to fly under-the-radar. Her best
strength was identifying power and then siding with it a make people think it was non-strategic and personal. I also wouldnt be surprised if she threw some challenges to stay under-the-radar
(2) She played a good social game. She was well-liked and respected by everyone and managed to work her way into a majority alliance despite being a threat!
(3) She had her game-frame on and made the rational decision (determining the final 2) when she had to
12. Aras Baskauskas
A. Good Luck
(1) Shanes Casaya Alliance
(2) Cerie (especially after he initially outcasted her)
(3) Casaya Dominance
(4) Casaya Loyalty (Bruces Non-Flipping & Danis Final Decision)
(5) Bruces health problems which led to him quitting. Having to go to 1 more tribal council wouldve likely revealed the power structure more. Or it wouldve been 1 more chance for Terry to lose an immunity challenge,
in which case Aras wouldve been the #1 immunity deflect victim
(6) Terry being stupid with the immunity idol & challenge dominance
B. Bad Luck
(1) Being the #1 target of an immunity idol deflection, because hes the tribe alpha male
C. Jury Management
(1) Many votes were against a lazy Danielle
(2) Respected for some tribe leadership & challenge prowess
D. Voting Control (5/7)
(1) Joined Casaya majority alliance with Danielle, Courtney, and Shane
(2) Helped contribute to Casaya unity and dominance
(3) Joined alliance with Cirie and Danielle to boot Courtney and Shane
(4) Helped save himself by winning immunity; tried to save Cirie, but she ended up losing tie-breaker to Danielle
(5) Lost direct control of final vote, because Dani won immunity; however, she ended up taking him anyways fearing Casaya revenge
E. Skill set
(1) Made a good decision to abandon first tribe for new group
(2) Worked hard to keep tribe unified and victorious
(3) Condescending and non-tactful at times, but overall decent social skills
(4) In terms of strategy, he misjudged Bruces loyalty. If hed gotten his way and Bob Dawg had been kept instead, the results mightve been worse for him! Good decision to ally with Cirie to set-up new targets, because hed have been the one to get eliminated from Terrys immunity backlash. Not sure taking a well-liked, underdog Cirie to the final 2 wouldve been a winning decision though
13. Yul Kwon
A. Good Luck
(1) Puka Puka
(a) Compatibility With Brad & Cao Boi
(b) Complete Compatibility With Becky
(c) Challenge Dominance
(2) Being Sent To Exile Island 2nd
(3) Compatibility With Aitu-Mates (Jonathan, Candice & Sundra)
(4) Aitu Dominance & Loyalty
(a) Mutiny = Candice Flipped Too Soon
(b) Raro underestimating Jonathan
(c) Final 3 Scenario = Guaranteed into finals with the twist
(d) Intelligent, Game-Centered Contestants & Jury
B. Bad Luck
(1) Huge target from the start. Obvious threat (strong & smart reputation)
(2) Smartest and strongest opponents ever
(a) Strategists & social threats = Candice, Jonathan, Parvati, etc.
(b) Alpha males = Ozzy, Nate, Adam, etc.
C. Jury Management
(1) Game-Based Speech; Clearly Articulated Gameplay Style
(2) Lost Votes Were For Challenge-Monster Ozzy, But Not Against Yul
(3) Respected by jury
(4) Viewed as strategic mastermind, puppet master, & the brain
(5) Up against 1 of the most highly respected opponents ever (Ozzy)
(6) Seen as clearly superior to Becky (Actual Equal Partner)
D. Voting Control (5/9) = Had ultimate control over EVERY tribal council that he wanted to, including the 1st TC of the merge (which is where Jonathan flipped). In other
words, he was never caught on the outside of any vote
E. Skill Set
(1) Yul exemplified quiet leadership. All of his tribes dominated. According to interviews, Yul determined challenge strategy and execution. As a result, Puka Puka, Aitu, and Aitu 4 dominance led to opponent elimination. This is 1 of the reasons why he was still heavily respected and was able to win against 1 of the best challengers and providers (who
also managed to play one of the cleanest games) in Survivor history
(2) Probably the best Survivor strategist ever. Completely understood the numbers game, game theory, when to take calculated risks, was able to correctly identify threats and eliminate them before they became an issue (except Candice), etc.
(a) Took a calculated risk and fought to save Becky for Aitu majority, when he couldve just gone with majority in fear of exposing his alliance
(b) Correctly identified pawn Cao Boi as a potential threat to both his hidden immunity idol and alliance
(c) Correctly identified Sundra and Ozzy as useful pawns forming Aitu core alliance, while simultaneously eliminating their outsider status and potential flipping. Classic strategy of: Destroy your enemies by making them your friends or Keep your friends close and your enemies closer. It ended up paying off in dividends at the mutiny
(d) In the minority at the merge, but ultimately controlled vote as majority by persuading Jonathan to flip using the immunity idol as bait and keeping the Aitu 4 unified and loyal
(e) Made intelligent use of the HII, by being open about its possession, thus making it a deterrence tool and taking him off the voting radar despite the fact that he was overtly on the radar
(3) Yul had good social skills too, despite being robotic. He was able to implement his strategies, because of his interpersonal abilities. He had incredible persuasiveness and communication skills
(a) Persuaded Cao Boi and Flicka to go against their instincts and best interests by working with Jonathan and booting Cecelia!
(b) Acquired Jonathan as a good ally
(c) Formed a true bond and strong partnership alliance with both Becky and Sundra
(d) Formed a strong extension alliance with Ozzy
(e) Had still managed to preserve the respect of Candice and Jonathan despite having voted them both off
(f) Overall, was very good at trust acquisition and coalition building. He had the most loyal and useful allies which allowed him to overcome ridiculous odds
(4) Yul faced lots of adversity, but handled much of it so gracefully, it looked like he had an easy game. He was 1 of the biggest targets, yet managed to get in control and keep it throughout the game
(5) He knew when to fly under-the-radar to become a non-threat and when to step it up and winning challenges for his tribe
(6) Had great social tact, strategic honesty, and relative openness which gained the respect of everyone, because he didnt insult peoples intelligence. His honesty with Becky solidified their bond, and did the same with the Aitu 4
(7) Appeasement strategy worked wonderfully on Cao Boi, Jessica, Jonathan, Ozzy, and Sundra
(8) He was a rational decision-maker who had logical justifications for every 1 of the people he booted, which allowed him to play 1 of the cleanest games ever, despite having orchestrated most of it!
(9) Had street smarts in people assessment and conflict resolution. He didnt have a problem defending himself and being not-nice when Candice tried to cause a rift between Jonathan and the Aitu 4
(10) Managed to position himself long-term very well. He was given the reputation of puppet master and mafia boss, and got most of the credit for the Aitu 4s game, despite the fact that Becky was a strong player herself.
(11) Adapted to puppet master label (indirect attack by opponents) and used it to his advantage by securing Adams winning vote
(12) He employed good observation skills and information management
(13) Yul incorporated multiple types of major strategies:
(a) Alliance Pagonging via Aitu 4
(b) UTR via sandbagging and Ozzy dominance
(c) Romber partnership + extension alliances via tight alliance with Becky and Jonathan/Candice/Sundra, then with Sundra/Ozzy
14. Earl Cole
A. Good Luck
(1) Being put on Ravu ended up being ultimately advantageous, because it empowered the males on the tribe, despite the female numbers advantage. In addition, given the composition of his tribe, and the fact that strong allies Dreamz and Cassandra were on the other tribe to cause their downfall, it happened to be the perfect scenario from which Earl could build his coalition
(2) Stacy and Lisis power struggle with Alex and Edgardo, got Liliana booted and kept Cassandra in the game
(3) Being sent to Exile, which gave him the leverage he needed to get the HII and acquire Yau as an ally
(4) The losing Ravu dynamic caused Mookie and Rocky to turn on their alliance member Rita (1 of Earls enemies) and boot her over Anthony (1 of his allies); Rita had a bond with the latinos from Moto, so if shed lasted over Anthony at the switch, things mightve turned out very different
(5) The switch put Earl on Moto at a crucial time. The best luck was to be on Ravu 1st, and Moto 2nd. This gave him the necessary strategic leverage that won him the game. He re-bonded with Cassie, strengthened his bonds with Michelle and Yau, and built bonds with Boo and Stacy. Having won every immunity challenge until the merge, there was never any discord in Moto II to alienate outsiders like Boo and Stacy, while his Ravu enemies were getting decimated. Earls greatest strategic threats: Edgardo and Alex (because he was never on a tribe with them) and Mookie (because hed do anything to win), were marginalized on Ravu due to the Moto winning streak created by the have/have-not situation
(6) Lisi, being a weak player, ended up flipping out, which help keep Dreamz (Earls greatest ally; Ravu IIs worst enemy) over Lisi (Ravu IIs ally)
(7) At the merge, the twist which split Bula Bula into 2 random groups, and then had the losers silenced until going to TC, ended up costing Earl 1 of his best alliesMichelle. This mightve cost Yau-Man more though. In the long run, it also prevented a situation where Dreamz or Michelle mightve become Earls enemy. The twist also revealed loyalties, which turned the game into a Pagonging, whereas it mightve turned into a more chaotic game otherwise. So short term, losing Michelle was definitely bad luck for Earl, but maybe long term, this twist ended up being good for him
(8) Dreamz & Cassandra = By far, Earls best luck in the game. They basically handed him victory. They were weak competition at the end, but made for powerful tools as strong outlasters to eliminate all of Earls competitors from the Horsemen to Yau-Man. They provided Earl key info, infiltrated and imploded enemy alliances, helped brought their own allies to strengthen the Bula Bula majority, and revoked on a car deal which sealed Yaus fate and ensured Earl a victory
(9) Stacy & Boo = Weak strategic players who ended up empowering Cassandra, who was empowering Earl. Provided Earl with Bula-Bula majority and helped eliminate Earls top enemies
(10) The surprise F3 twist, that might've changed Dreamz mind (I personally don't think he was ever going to honor the promise though), and definitely ruined Dreamz and Cassandra's end-game strategy
B. Bad Luck
(1) Being sent to Exile Island 2nd ended up giving Mookie the leverage to boot 1 of Earls best and growing Ravu allies: Erica
(2) Anthony, 1 of Earls allies, was alone on Moto II, where he got picked off
(3) Horsemen = Earls #1 threat to winning the game. Despite popular opinion, they were a fairly smart and ruthless group who was going against Earl and his group
C. Jury Management
(1) Played a relatively good game in terms of integrity and niceness, which allowed him to earn the respect of everyone on the jury, even those who hed never even met or been aligned with before
(2) Answered questions excellently. Most notably, he touted his own struggles and deservingness based on need when answering Stacys question; and appropriately answered that he played strategically when answering Rocky and Yau-Mans questions
D. Voting Control (9/9) = For the most part, had subtle or overt control of all the votes that he was involved in. He gave up control over Mookies boot however, and was outside the majority during Stacys ouster. He had the most control in the final jury vote than any other winner
E. Skill Set
(1) Capitalized strategically on his natural compatibility with his fellow African-Americans. According to post-game interviews, he had an early-game meeting with them and discussed looking out for one another. This seems substantiated by Dreamzs comment that he was initially in a true alliance of 5 (which included Cassie and Earl), and it seems different from the anti-Lilliana/Rocky alliance. In addition, Earl, Erica, and Anthony all seemed to be looking out for 1 another on Ravu. As we saw, his early alliance with Dreamz and Cassandra paid off in dividends, and was really what won him the game
(2) On Ravu, he made a loose-alliance with the males, which ended up picking all the females off except for Michelle
(3) Earl played a very subtle game where he played Kingmaker to Mookie, floated with the majority, while assessing those he could trust and building relationships with these people: Erica, Anthony, Michelle, and Yau-Man. This paid off in dividends at the switch-em, where he solidified his tribe bond with Michelle and Yau into a strong alliance
(4) He gave trust to gain trust, when he helped Yau-Man find the HII back on Ravu
(5) On Moto II, he tightened his pre-existing bonds with Cassandra, Michelle, and Yau to form the Moto II majority alliance, which would eventually become the core for the Bula Bula majority alliance. Michelle acted as a spy to infiltrate Boo and Stacy and gather information on them
(6) Earl helped Yau-Man find the HII again, this time at Moto, and this time Yau was able to get the HII. This solidified their tribe bond into a strong alliance. They also decided to share the HII if either of them were in danger
(7) At the merge, Earls strategy was to pretend he was not really thinking about the game. He continued to form social bonds with everybody, which helped give him the long-term respect that he earned with his eventual 9-0-0 victory. Meanwhile, he let Cassandra take the front stage as the overt game controller
(8) Earl correctly identified Mookie as untrustworthy, likely due to him booting Erica, when the original plan was to boot Sylvia. He relayed this to Cassandra, who later ended up exiling him. This started in motion the battle between the Horsemen versus the Syndicate
(9) After putting some pressure on Dreamz for the wavering, Dreamz cracked and spilled the beans on Horsemen strategy, most notably that Mookie had the HII and then gave it away. Earl deserves some responsibility for this good luck, because of his initial alliance with Dreamz
(10) After comforting Stacy after the reward challenge that revealed nobody really liked her, Earl gained Stacy as a valuable voting ally to the Syndicate
(11) Earl played the game as a quiet leader of the Syndicate, followed the will of the majority, and built consensus for the majority of the merge boots. The only time this failed somewhat, was when Mookie ended up getting booted instead of Alex. This was not part of Earls plan, since he had more of a connection to Mookie than Alex, and saw the latter as a greater strategic threat
(12) Earl displayed he wasnt necessarily flawless when it comes to people assessment, when he was caught outside the majority vote at Stacys ouster. He believed that Cassandra and Dreamz would stay true to their F4 alliance with him and Yau-Man. Still, he said he knew Yau should play the HII, when Stacy had made the comment that the vote was up-in-the-air that night
(13) Earl displayed a good elimination strategy throughout the game. His decision-making seems to be guided by a simple, but effective strategy: eliminate those who he had the least connection with and those he couldnt trust
(14) When Dreamz reneged on the car deal, Earl made the appropriate, rational decision to break his alliance with Yau-Man, and vote out the #1 jury threat, a game winning decision
(15) Overall, Earls greatest strengths seemed to be his social skills, observation skills, coalition-building, and strategy in understanding numbers and positioning
potroast's Voting Statistics
VOTING TARGETING RATIO
AMBER 94.1
TOM 89.3
ETHAN 84.0
BRIAN 80.0
YUL 77.3
DANNI 74.1
JENNA 72.0
VECEPIA 71.4
TINA 70.0
SANDRA 69.2
CHRIS 64.9
EARL 64.4
ARAS 62.5
RICHARD 60.0
VOTING TARGET AVOIDANCE RATIO
BRIAN 100.0
ETHAN 100.0
SANDRA 100.0
TINA 100.0
TOM 100.0
DANNI 98.5
EARL 98.1
VECEPIA 97.1
CHRIS 95.6
JENNA 95.0
RICHARD 91.8
YUL 90.6
AMBER 86.0
ARAS 81.6
HATERS
1. Dictatorship (TennisAce)
2. Kirblar
3. Quiddity
4. Pulau_Tiga
5. Kitty Pryde1
6. Survivor Boy
7. 7neves7
8. sweEt Mauritius
9. molemantn
10. growsonwalls
11. Francois40
12. TheLurkerSpeaks
13. raiders fantom
14. CSCin3D
15. Panurge46
16. WylDawg
HATER GHOSTIES
1. Lost Survivor Heroes
2. Mr. Steven Seagal
3. Art_NL
PRECARIOUS RELATIONSHIPS
2. thailandsurvivor
3. colorofcoils (fanofcoils)
4. XtremeInnovator420
5. Us Kids Know
