(Un)fortunately that isn't true. He basically has to DOUBLE his weight loss to win. Also he needs to do it at home, in a non sheltered environment. In season 4, we though Isabeau would pull off the win for the very same reason, and she flopped big time.If you check my older posts you'll see that I firmly believed that Ed and Heba have no chance given how far they have to go to get to 50%.
I don't know if Heba or Ed can catch up. Michelle vs Vicki and Michelle wins. It's been obvious from almost the first episode.
However, if they really left campus sometime in August, and had about 4 months at home, I think that changes the equation. Specifically, if they were to have left campus immediately after last night's weigh-in, and had 16 weeks at home, Ed would have to lose an average of a little over 5 lbs a week to hit 50%. Heba would have to lose an average of a little over 4 lbs a week.
edited to add: We actually have a track record of at-home loss to gauge Ed by. He was off-campus for about 4 weeks and lost 22 pounds. So he is capable of pulling 5.5 lb losses per week at home.
At home they lose the structure of being on campus, but I'm pretty sure they all use that time to do some crazy, unsafe shit to drop pounds too.
Michelle still has it the easiest road. If she left campus after last night, she'd only have to lose a little over 3 lbs a week. But the extended time at home definitely gives Ed and Heba more of a chance than I thought.
Also, vis a vis Michelle and Cunty, one other advantage that Michelle has is that she's 11 years younger.
