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I know this post will invoke a few responses along the lines of, "Dude, Survivor is reality TV, you dumb ass, not a sport."

These statements are non sequiturs in the form of "Survivor is reality TV; therefore it is not a sport." They are false reasoning and merit no further discussion.

So to the point: Why does this matter?

It sheds light on the question: When will Survivor end?

The answer is no one knows because Survivor is a unique (sui generis) concept - part reality TV, part game show, part sport.

Survivor may follow a similar ratings path as Real World. After 17 years, Real World, the original reality TV show, has found its niche with a core to whom the show appeals. This core base of viewers is largely demographically defined, not a perpetual audience season after season. This sustained base has enough viewers that it makes economic sense for MTV to have extended Real World out through 2011. Despite that Real World has, in my opinion, become a horrid, degenerated shell of the interesting original few seasons, it still performs well in the demo MTV seeks. Season 22 won the Wednesday night, original cable show for 12-34 year olds. So it is possible that Survivor, like Real World, will find a bottom of hardcore fans that the show will appeal to even after 17 years. Maybe this is CBS' plan and the MTV-ization of Survivor is with the intent of competing in this space for young viewers (something the gray network, CBS, has struggled with for years). If that's what CBS intends, then as a fan of Survivor I hope that the show's ratings crash and we get Survivor freed from the suits at CBS intent on Real World-ing Survivor. No doubt the franchise gets picked up elsewhere and perhaps managed differently.

Then again maybe Survivor is like a game show that can go on for decades like Jeopardy, Wheel of Fortune, Price is Right.

Then there's the sports TV genre. The huge ratings spike of the Packers - Vikings game was due to what: A sudden interest in the NFC North? No, it was the reality TV drama around the game, Bret Favre's return. The NFL's appeal is to a great extent about a lot of personalities and drama. The NFL is both reality TV and sport that together crushes everything else on television.

Survivor is a contest with a set of rules, played by people to test their skill. It is not about their life in as much as it is about removing them from their lives and into an arena. Like other sports involving skill, Survivor tests personality and demeanor. In all sports there can be an interest in the players' lives and stories, but this is not the primary point of the show. Survivor does not follow the life of its cast as they go through some phase or slice of life it watches them perform in a contest. While Survivor is largely thought of as an evolution of early reality TV pioneer Real World, it was in fact very much a derivative of early X-games sports such as Eco-Challenge. But neither reality or sports necessarily must have a fade of ratings (beyond the overall trends away from TV towards alt media and the diffusement of ratings due to the expansion of TV options).

Whether the model for Survivor's expected ratings over time is Real World, Jeopardy or a Sport - it is least like a scripted TV show such as M*A*S*H* or Friends with their requisite ratings arch over time.

Therefore, rather than accepting that Survivor's rating decline is inevitable like a scripted show, consider that Survivor's recent ratings decline could better be explained as a sport that is waning due to a lack of entertainment value or compelling interest - as for example, tennis and boxing. It is absolutely plausible that the decline of Survivor's ratings is due to the mismanagement of the Survivor franchise by CBS. The benchmark for evaluating Survivor's ratings ought to be a basket of other sports programming on broadcast TV.

Held to this benchmark, the beleaguered shareholders of CBS whose interests presumably are represented by CBS' senior management ought to be very unhappy with the decline of the last few years in Survivor's ratings as it suggests gross mismanagement rather than the excuse that such a decline is inevitable.

An often repeated spin by the crew at CBS/SEG, paraphrased, goes, "Great casting will cause a show like Survivor to have ratings success. Survivor has been a huge hit. Therefore, the casting decisions have been brilliant." This is the fallacy a.k.a. "spin" of affirming the consequent.