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missyae wrote:

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The merge and Galu targets Russell Hantz.

Interesting. So Russell is their initial target, and yet Erik winds up leaving, with Russell NOT playing his idol, AND with the Foa Foa 4 getting caught by surprise, EVEN THOUGH none of the 4 had immunity. Wow.

So, questions:

If not Erik, who did the Foa Foa 4 think was Galu's target? One of them? Someone else on Galu?

Why didn't Russell play his idol? Did he not know he was the prime Galu target? If so, who did he think was the target on Foa Foa? Mick or Jaison? Why would he think it would be one of them and not him?

Did the Foa Foa 4 vote as a group? If so, which Galu name other than Erik's did they write down? Were they not expecting support from elsewhere on Galu for that vote?

Here's one semi-plausible scenario that tries to fit in all of missyae's spoilers, with the assumption that "the Foa Foa 4 are surprised that Erik goes home" means "the Foa Foa 4 voted against Erik but didn't expect anyone else on Galu to join them:"

Russell is told by Laura that Mick and Jaison are ahead of him on her Galu target list. The Foa Foa 4 target Erik, but Russell doesn't play his idol because he's convinced that Mick or Jaison is going home. That's an awfully risky move on Russell's part, even if he's confident of his secret deal with Laura (I mean, she only controls 3 votes on Galu; does Russell realize this?) Anyway, while the Foa Foa 4 are expecting one of Mick or Jaison to go home, Laura, who knows Erik already has 4 votes against him, pulls in Monica and Kelly to bring that total to 7. Erik goes home, and the Foa Foa 4 are surprised they're spared. This scenario leaves Shambo out of the picture, since I doubt she'd vote against Erik, her closest friend on Galu. But there's still plenty of time for her to align with the Foa Foa 4 once Erik is gone.

In this scenario, Erik gets 7 votes (from the Foa Foa 4 plus the 3 mean girls), Russell gets 4 (from the Galu men plus Brett). No idea how Shambo votes.

My biggest problem with this scenario is Russell's decision not to play the idol even though he should know that he's the Galu men's prime target.

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Now if I take "the Foa Foa 4 are surprised when Erik goes home" to mean "the Foa Foa 4 voted against someone else on Galu and are stunned that Erik goes home," then I have a very hard time coming up with a scenario that fits everything in.

Here's the best I can do:

Russell knows he's a big Galu target, so he targets, say, Laura (yeah, I know he just struck up a deal with her, but this is Russell we're talking about...) because he thinks she's running the show at Galu. Shambo and the rest of Foa Foa join him of course. Meanwhile he tells Laura that the Foa Foa 4 are going after John, a clear immunity and Jury threat. Independently, John goes to Laura after Erik comes to close to winning immunity and tells Laura that now is the time to get rid of the biggest physical threat left in the game. So with him, Laura, Monica, Kelly, Brett, and Dave, he pulls together 6 votes against Erik. Erik, completely out of the loop, votes Russell, to him the obvious post-merge choice.

So Russell gets 1 vote, Laura gets 5 votes and Erik goes home with 6 votes.

This fits a lot of missyae's spoilers, except for a) the fact that Russell is supposedly the prime Galu target and b) the fact that Erik, Dave and Brett are still tight post-game. Erik is laid back enough, I suppose, that it's possible he wouldn't hold a grudge against them. But I just can't come up with a scenario that would have Erik leaving without votes from Foa Foa *and* without votes from at least two of the guys he thinks of as his allies.

The first scenario is much more plausible, but they both have plenty of holes.

Hehe, I'm riding the missyae horse until it throws me.