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I hope all these predictions are true.

I have never voted as much as I did last night. It's weird, cuz even if Kris wins I won't be too sad cuz I like him, but I really want (gay) Adam to win.

This article sums it up nicely...


WHY IT MATTERS THAT ADAM LAMBERT IS (PROBABLY) GAY
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/jay-michaelson/why-it-matters-that-adam_b_205588.html

From Bettor's World...




AND THE WINNER IS........................ADAM LAMBERT

5/20

Here we go folks. Looking to keep our perfect record of picking American Idol winners intact. We must admit, of all the years we have been doing this, this finale is the most difficult to predict. We are confident in our prediction however. On to the reasons why Adam Lambert will win American Idol tonight.

As those that follow our predictions know by now, we use a variety of methods to arrive at our conclusions. We monitor tons of public opinion polls. We monitor many betting sites. We monitor Dial Idol and countless other sites related to the show. Lastly, we watch the show and naturally form our own opinions based on what we observe.

Our goal is different than many of the other sites that attempt to predict the Idol results. Ultimately, we are looking to find profitable wagering opportunities as a result of our research. Thus far, we have been very successful in that department, making a profit from this show each and every year betting has been available.

Let's start first with public opinion polls, of which there are many. Some are large with thousands of votes cast, some are small with just a couple hundred votes cast. Both serve to give us a sampling of the general publics opinions. There are polls, for example, run by AOL, People Magazine, TV guide, etc. There are polls run by small newspapers and there are polls run by small websites. Some of these polls, are close. Very close. While other polls favor Adam Lambert by a margin of 55% up to 60%. Even the ones that are close, still favor Lambert by a small margin. No polls we monitor favor Kris Allen to win. That, in itself, is significant.

Next we have the betting odds. When people bet on something, they are casting their votes with their money. So, monitoring the betting markets is simply like monitoring more polls. Heading into last nights show, Adam Lambert was a 3-1 favorite and the odds didn't budge. Again, very significant. After last nights show, we saw a flurry of action, in which the odds dropped drastically, in some instances favoring Kris Allen. But as time has passed, and the bettors have had more time to do their research (not unlike what we do) we have seen the odds flow back towards making Adam Lambert a solid favorite.

When we take the major sportsbooks, and average their odds, the average betting line is Adam Lambert -145. Translated into percentages, based on people casting their votes with money, Adam Lambert has a 60% chance of winning. That would be right in line with the majority of the public opinion polls we monitor that have Lambert at 55-60%.

If there is a wild card here, it would be two popular sites, Vote for the Worst, and Dial Idol. Vote for the Worst encouraged it's followers to vote for Kris Allen, while Dial Idol, which measures the busy signals of people voting using their software, has given a slight edge to Kris Allen, but ultimately says it's too close to call. Note also that Dial Idol has been off this year, and their site, and the voting results, weren't accessible last night, at least between the hours of 9 pm and 1 am est.

Another method we use, is to monitor search engine activity. Specifically, who has more searches for their name at Google. Logic would tell us that the contestant that has more searches for their name, is more popular. Google also allows you to break this information down based on geographical location. You can view the entire world for example, or you can narrow it down to the United States. You can also view cities within the United States.

Bottom line? Adam Lambert is much more popular than Kris Allen based on the number of searches being done for their names. As a matter of fact, it's not even close. Whether you look at searches worldwide, or just in the States, Lambert is more popular by a very wide margin. Geographically, Kris Allen only received more searches for his name in one location in the entire world..........that would be the state of Arkansas, where he is from.

Lastly, we have our own opinion of the contestants. When I say we, I refer to, yours truly, the author of this Idol page, and a few friends who are equally as interested, both from a betting standpoint, and a musical standpoint. The feeling here is, Adam Lambert is simply the better singer and all around entertainer. Kris Allen will possibly be forgotten once the show is over. Adam Lambert will be in the spotlight for years to come.

If Adam Lambert doesn't win, the credibility of American Idol will be damaged beyond repair. If he doesn't win, the show will be reduced to nothing more than a popularity contest. A popularity contest based on peoples personal beliefs concerning religion, sexual orientation, looks and any number of other factors that go into decisions as to whether or not they like a person, or not.

If the show is based on singing ability and overall talent, Adam Lambert should win going away. Going strictly on that alone, it shouldn't be close. As Simon Cowell said, Lambert is the best contestant the show has ever had, hands down. His vocal range is on par, or better, than some of the biggest names to ever grace a stage. Names like Robert Plant and Freddy Mercury come to mind. Vocally, he's that good.

So there you have it. Our exhaustive research, monitoring public opinions polls, betting markets, websites devoted to American Idol as well as our own personal opinions, suggest that Adam Lambert will win American Idol tonight. In the world of wagering, there is no such thing as a sure thing. But betting on American Idol is unique in that, you are betting on something that has already taken place, unlike say, a football or basketball game. With the price still anywhere from -140 to -145 as of this writing at 3 pm est this afternoon, we'd still recommend Adam Lambert as a good bet. But you better hurry, these odds will rise as the afternoon goes on.

Good Luck if you bet. Enjoy the show, and we'll see you next year!!!