Top 20 Survivor Blunders That Weren't Really Blunders (#5 Up!)

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King Lord		#61	[-]
Posts: 78 (05/07/09 11:00 AM) Registered user Reply Quote More Recent Posts Message Connection Block Invite	16. Vecepia votes with the Maraamu lazyboy alliance against Hunter (Marquesas) *Conventional Wisdom: Vecepia should have tried to keep Hunter so that the tribe would stay strong in challenges. Rebuttal:* Count me among those who think Vecepia is a vastly underrated winner. Many of her detractors cite this move as but one example of her supposed strategic ineptitude. But let's take a closer look, shall we? At the previous TC, Vee had to choose between the Hunter-Gina-Patricia faction or the Rob-Sarah-Sean faction. Choosing the latter was smart because (1) she'd have definitely been the fourth wheel in Hunter's group, and (2) Sean had unwavering loyalty to her, putting her on equal sub-alliance footing against Rob & Sarah. After that, Rob and Sean were deadset on ousting Hunter, and Vee had to go along with it because there was nothing she could do to dissuade them. Keep in mind also that the producers had shown the entire cast the switch episode of Africa, so if they weren't sure their original tribe would stay in tact, why keep a potential challenge threat? Even if there weren't a switch, Vee and Sean could conceivably use Gina as a swing vote to oust Sarah. And let's not forget Hunter's own errors leading to his demise: he and Gina could've voted for Sarah at the very first tribal and gained a loyal ally in Peter. *Bottom Line*: Egomaniacal male posturing lead to Hunter's exit. Vee wasn't any part of it and couldn't control it; she made the right call. Spoiler [+] No. 15 features a macho man, a psycho man, and a fatso woman Last Edited By: King Lord 06/21/09 11:26 AM. Edited 2 times.
JackSparrowBauer		#62	[-]
Posts: 977 (05/07/09 11:24 AM) Reply Quote More Recent Posts Message Connection Block Invite	Agree with 16. Vee set herself up well with Rob/Sean/Sarah, because at a merge, swap, she'd clearly be the last one targetted, and she could've jumped ship if she needed to (which she did with Rob at F10). She was also tight with Sean, and not with Hunter and Gina, so it was definitely smart to go with Rob/Sean/Sarah. MARAAMU SEETHING <333333333333 I also agree that Vecepia is underrated. I agree about the Cindy move. She was screwed either way, and giving away all the cars would only put a huge target on her back (like Yau did with his deal with Dreamz in Fiji). She couldn't have predicted Rafe being petty about the car, and at that point, Danni was still supposed to be the next to go. That was more of a bad move on Rafe's part than anyone else. wtf at people saying that Steph had bad gameplay. She was cool about the car thing, and her only mistake was not throwing a random vote at Lydia or Danni. Thanks to Rafe's pettyness, Danni seizing the opportunity for her to stay in the game, and Lydia being a follower, Cindy was going no matter what, and there was nothing Steph could do about it.
unduli clone		#63	[-]
Posts: 5647 (05/07/09 3:32 PM) Registered User Reply Quote More Recent Posts Message Connection Block Invite	Cindy didn't have any option in her situation and I don't really view it as a good or bad move. Vecepia HAD to boot Hunter. It would have been idiotic to boot Sarah. Even if Hunter wins the rest of the challenges for Maraamu, Rob is bound to feel betrayed and flip at the merge. If Maraamu loses the next challenge, recently-betrayed Rob could easily side with Gina/Hunter and boot out the next weakest person: Vecepia. I think all of Vecepia's game is underrated and she played a damn good sneaky UTR game.
Katy Carney		#64	[-]
Posts: 5924 (05/07/09 3:32 PM) Reply Quote More Recent Posts Message Connection Block Invite	lol at that picture tho.
tullfan2		#65	[-]
Posts: 3396 (05/07/09 3:41 PM) Registered User Reply Quote More Recent Posts Message Connection Block Invite	wtf at people saying that Steph had bad gameplay. Steph is the only contestant that I can think of that twice voted against the person (Judd, Cindy) who chose to take them on a reward in the first Tribal Council after the reward. That's the fastest way to lose jury votes that I can think of.
colleenlover		#66	[-]
Posts: 9230 (05/07/09 5:51 PM) Registered User Reply Quote More Recent Posts Message Connection Block Invite	hmmm, next Rob, Lex and Kathy in All-stars? (Although, Kathy as a fatso is low -I think she looks fantastic) the non blunder being to keep Amber from Lex and Kathy's point of view, and/or Rob voting out Lex and Kathy keeping her immunity from their point of views.
solesurvivor01		#67	[-]
Posts: 5637 (05/07/09 7:43 PM) Registered user Reply Quote More Recent Posts Message Connection Block Invite	I don't blame Vecepia for voting off Hunter over Sarah, but why her alliance voted off Hunter over Gina...that I'm not so sure about.
Quiddity		#68	[-]
Posts: 5438 (05/07/09 8:33 PM) Registered User Reply Quote More Recent Posts Message Connection Block Invite	We almost relived Cindy with Taj tonight... Thank God we didn't.
Thailandsurvivor		#69	[-]
Posts: 6668 (05/07/09 8:35 PM) Reply Quote More Recent Posts Message Connection Block Invite	Quiddity wrote: We almost relived Matt with Taj tonight... Screw the producers for not letting it happen. Fixed.
kmill		#70	[-]
Posts: 2013 (05/08/09 12:36 AM) Registered user Reply Quote More Recent Posts Message Connection Block Invite	Quiddity wrote: Cuauhtemoc Gilmore wrote: Cindy was a vile cumrag. I'm glad she became homeless and lost her job. Boo! She got her job back--she still works there. Trust me, I've seen her.
JackSparrowBauer		#71	[-]
Posts: 985 (05/08/09 7:32 AM) Reply Quote More Recent Posts Message Connection Block Invite	did Cindy actually lose her job and become homeless?
King Lord		#72	[-]
Posts: 79 (05/08/09 4:21 PM) Registered user Reply Quote More Recent Posts Message Connection Block Invite	15. Terry doesn't use the immunity idol at the first post-merge Tribal Council (Exile Island) *Conventional Wisdom: Terry should have thrown the individual IC, allowed the Casayas to vote for him, and used the idol to oust one of them. Rebuttal: First, let me say that I hated Terry with the fire of a thousand suns thoughout that season. But I would be the first to defend Terry's decision not to use the idol at the merge. Suppose he had gone through with it, and Shane (who would have been the wrong target anyway) went home. Yes, the La Mina group would only need one defector instead of two, but that defector would risk losing four jury votes (the other Casayas)for the move. Who would risk that? Plus, even if someone defected, that person would know, along with Sally, that the two of them would not get into the finals if they stayed loyal to Terry's group, so they'd both probably form a counter-alliance at F7. At that point, Terry would be vulnerable if he didn't have immunity, and even if he did, the first moment he lost an IC, he would be extremely vulnerable. Terry's best play, given all this, was to keep the idol. As Yul would prove the next season, the idol's power isn't in its use, but in the threat* of its use. Terry didn't have the strategic foresight to recognize this, but his short-sighted focus on the idol's tactical use lead him ass-backwards to the right strategy/ *Bottom Line*: Terry did have many strategic brainfarts (ousting Ruth-Marie, ousting Dan, approaching Cirie and Shane about defection in the dumbest way possible, etc.), but not using the idol wasn't among them. In fact, it was probably the only smart thing he did. Spoiler [+] No. 14 involves a closet case, a douchetard, and a tattooed freak
Kitty Pryde1		#73	[-]
Posts: 9445 (05/08/09 4:46 PM) Reply Quote More Recent Posts Message Connection Block Invite	I don't think Terry not using the idol at ten was a bad move. I think not using the idol at SIX was a bad move.
Quiddity		#74	[-]
Posts: 5447 (05/08/09 4:54 PM) Registered User Reply Quote More Recent Posts Message Connection Block Invite	OMG King Lord, its like you're reading my mind or something. I've been defending Terry about this for years. He uses the idol to save any of his La Mina allies, he leaves sooner than he did, as simple as that. Casaya was never going to budge, all six of them were either two close to other ones there or thought they were in a much better position than they really were. If there's one right move Terry made all game, it was holding onto that thing as long as possible.
DuckyLu		#75	[-]
Posts: 324 (05/08/09 10:49 PM) Reply Quote More Recent Posts Message Connection Block Invite	Hi King Lord--I like your list concept and write ups. I agree about Cindy--that she was screwed either way. Screwed with car was better. I think I recall reading that she spent quite a long time thinking before making her infamous car decision. I especially thank you for the Terry write up. I found that "blunder" particularly aggravating, and realizing it wasn't such a blunder somehow makes me feel a little better about the whole season. Since it is a season with Cirie, and that crazy dysfunctional/functional Casaya, that is important. I disagree slightly with your emphasis though. I don't think in his case the threat of the idol was its main advantage. He was such a huge challenge threat that, especially when there were more people, other players had a huge incentive to try to blindside him or flush the idol if he lacked immunity repeated times. I think the best reason for him to have the idol was that his only path to victory was doing exactly what he almost did--being a challenge machine all the way through--and he needed that idol for back up for one screw up, which didn't happen until it was too late.
ncassaro		#76	[-]
Posts: 1103 (05/09/09 3:12 AM) Reply Quote More Recent Posts Message Connection Block Invite	14. Throwing to get rid of Billy (Cook Islands)? I don't see how that wasn't a huge blunder. 3 Aitutakis were voted out in a row, and only one made the merge. Meanwhile, Puka Puka dominated nuAitutaki and Rarotonga dominated nuRarotonga because they never went to TC.
JackSparrowBauer		#77	[-]
Posts: 1003 (05/09/09 7:08 AM) Reply Quote More Recent Posts Message Connection Block Invite	Yeah, I agree about Terry. If he won the Final IC, then he would've won the game, and his strategy would've worked for him. I hate the guy with a passion, but that was one thing he did right.
Miles Edgeworth		#78	[-]
Posts: 1668 (05/09/09 8:11 AM) Reply Quote More Recent Posts Message Connection Block Invite	Who cites the vee move where the two targets were either hunter or Vee as a bad move? Thats just tarded
King Lord		#79	[-]
Posts: 80 (05/09/09 3:13 PM) Registered user Reply Quote More Recent Posts Message Connection Block Invite	14. Ozzy and J.P. throw the second immunity challenge to oust Billy (Cook Islands) *Convential Wisdom: Aitu shouldn't have risked losing numbers by throwing the challenge. Rebuttal: The main argument against throwing challenges early in the season is the "death-spiral" argument, that throwing a challenge increases the likelihood of losing in the future. That's probably true when there's two tribes, where your tribe's loss is the other tribe's gain, but when there's four tribes, things are different in that your loss is the collective* gain of the other tribes. In other words, the relative gain is divided, and thus diffused, among the other three tribes, giving the losing tribe a chance to come back. And if the race-based tribes had stayed seperate for some time, Aitu would have come back, because they got rid of the dead weight. Consider that Billy was being deliberately lazy at camp, and that he wasn't particularly athletic, and definitely not as athletic as anyone else in that tribe. If a tribe ousts someone who's significantly weaker than everyone else, than the average strength of the tribe increases, making them more competitive in challenges. Ozzy and J.P. were by no means strategic masterminds, but at least they recognized this logic. *Bottom Line*: There was no way Aitu could have anticipated the first merge happening right after the second tribal IC, and even if they had an inkling of a merge at some point, that would be all the more reason to vote off Billy, because he had proven himself to be an untrustworthy, two-timing schemer, making alliance with both the other men and the women. Spoiler [+] No. 13 features a mom, a mouth, and another tattooed freak Last Edited By: King Lord 05/10/09 1:00 PM. Edited 1 times.
craig		#80	[-]
Posts: 15624 (05/09/09 3:41 PM) Registered User Reply Quote More Recent Posts Message Connection Block Invite	If a tribe ousts someone who's significantly weaker than everyone else, than the average strength of the tribe increases, making them more competitive in challenges. Fallacy - they could have sat out Billy or whoever every challenge, as long as another tribe was more down in numbers. And the blacks would have been down in numbers for the forseeable future. Billy was scheming to avoid becoming first boot, but could have been a useful extra vote postswap. The challenge throw plan led to disunity, which lead to Cristina voting off JP and then getting booted herself. If one other Hispanic makes jury instead of Brad, Ozzy might well have won. Last Edited By: craig 05/09/09 3:45 PM. Edited 1 times.

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Top 20 Survivor Blunders That Weren't Really Blunders (#5 Up!)

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