AI8 Top 11:Call-in Numbers, Busy Signals, DialIdol, BootSpec

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sadllama

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(03/17/09 10:34 PM)

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Can somebody explain the raw numbers on dial idol? is the more red there is better?

loveski

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(03/17/09 10:57 PM)

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I think green means how many votes were actually cast so if you put your mouse on top of the green, it will indicate the number of votes. On the other hand, it means DI encountered less busy signals so it could cast more votes via DI (which is not necessarily a good thing).

Per Raw Votes, the standings are: Alexis, Allison, Gokey, Adam, Anoop, Megan, Kris, Scott, Lil, Michael.
Per DI Score, the standings are: Gokey, Anoop, Lil, Matt, Kris, Adam (all of the above in green as safe), Megan, Michael, Scott, Allison, Alexis.

Last Edited By: loveski 03/17/09 10:59 PM. Edited 1 times.

underYa

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(03/17/09 10:58 PM)

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It's funny... cause I guess people are seeing Allison and Alexis are not getting very many busy signals on DialIdol, and they're voting like hell to save 'em.

According to DialIdol, Alexis has the most votes (26k votes), Allison second (24k votes), then Adam, Danny, Anoop, Megan, Kris, Matt, Scott, Lil and with Michael (6k votes) in last place.

sadllama, the way I'm interpreting it is - the more red = more busy signals = better.

Seyz

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(03/17/09 11:00 PM)

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I think West coast will favor Adam and Allison.

underYa

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(03/17/09 11:00 PM)

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loveski wrote:
I think more green is better - I think green means how many votes were actually cast so if you put your mouse on top of the green, it will indicate the number of votes. On the other hand, it means DI encountered less busy signals.

Anyway

Per Raw Votes, the standings are: Alexis, Allison, Gokey, Adam, Anoop, Megan, Kris, Scott, Lil, Michael.

More green = better
More red = better

The raw votes don't really matter. While you may conclude that a sample of ~180k people voting on DialIdol is sufficient, it is a VERY biased sample.. considering people are voting multiple times, and the ones who have the lowest DialIdol votes, are causing people to vote for them (Alexis and Allison).. so it is not representative of the 30 or so million people who are probably going to vote tonight.

The busy signals are probably better indicators.

BillNyeSurvivorGuy

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(03/17/09 11:04 PM)

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Adam up to 6th place and in green! Gogo Left Coast!

sadllama

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(03/17/09 11:05 PM)

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Alright, i was wondering why alexis and allison were bottom two on the main numbers but top two on the raw numbers. going by this, i'm gonna say the bottom two would really be the two people in danger of going but not really seeing a spike in voting because of it...so Scott and Michael. But basically I don't see how this system was ever really that accurate. Aren't tons of lines open now so busy signals are nowhere near as prevalent as they were a few years ago. Plus it doesn't account for east coast vs. west coast timezones.

underYa

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(03/17/09 11:09 PM)

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Well their margin of errors and confidence intervals are fairly high.

AFAIK they aren't predicting who will be eliminated, just who is in danger and who is safe...
e.g. Megan is ranked 7th based on her score, but she could lie anywhere from 4-11 in her rank tomorrow night.
Alex is ranked 11th based on her score, but she could lie anywhere from 7-11 in her rank tomorrow night.

ETA: they did a good job last week.. Jorge was ranked last, and Jasmine was ranked 3rd last.

Merely

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(03/17/09 11:11 PM)

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Dictatorship wrote:
Current bottom 4 are Allison, Adam, Scott, and Alexis. *gasm* how exciting!!!

Dream come true! <3

sadllama

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(03/17/09 11:12 PM)

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I guess I'm just in denial that that many people are voting for Danny every week.

underYa

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(03/17/09 11:19 PM)

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sadllama wrote:
Alright, i was wondering why alexis and allison were bottom two on the main numbers but top two on the raw numbers. going by this, i'm gonna say the bottom two would really be the two people in danger of going but not really seeing a spike in voting because of it...so Scott and Michael. But basically I don't see how this system was ever really that accurate. Aren't tons of lines open now so busy signals are nowhere near as prevalent as they were a few years ago. Plus it doesn't account for east coast vs. west coast timezones.

Btw I really don't think you can make that assumption. I would imagine that a significant majority (90%+?) don't look at DialIdol, so the actions of the voters on DialIdol are really not enough to offset the true rankings covering the 30 million or so people that might vote tonight.

They're statisticians at DialIdol.. if that was the case; they'd adjust the DialIdol score to account for it. They're not stupid. I think they do a pretty good job.

SardonicallyIrrelevant

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(03/17/09 11:32 PM)

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sadllama wrote:
I guess I'm just in denial that that many people are voting for Danny every week.

In case you're wondering, they all look like this.

underYa

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(03/17/09 11:51 PM)

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Megan is now safe as per DialIdol. Fuck.

Mai4

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(03/18/09 12:05 AM)

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underYa wrote:
Megan is now safe as per DialIdol. Fuck.

Yay!!

Now everyone I hate is in danger to go home� <3 <3 <3

Michael Sarver

" width="120" height="40">

4-11
(B3)

-

Scott MacIntyre

" width="120" height="40">

6-11
(B3)

-

Allison Iraheta

" width="120" height="40">

6-11
(B3)

-

Alexis Grace

10marker01

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(03/18/09 12:06 AM)

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Danny Gokey 1
Anoop Desai 2
Lil Rounds 3-5
Mitt Giraud 3-7
Kris Allen 3-8
Adam Lambert 4-10 (B3)
Megan Joy Cokrey 4-10 (B3)
Michael Sarver 4-11 (B3)
Scott MacIntyre 6-11 (B3)
Allison Iraheta 6-11 (B3)
Alexis Grace 7-11 (B3)

Are these the boldest predictions we've ever gotten from DialIdol? Allison was also second to last last week; she's probably getting a lot of texts and is actually safe. B3 will then probably be Michael, Scott, and Alexis as per DialIdol. But since they can't have a gender imbalance of 7 guys and 3 girls on the tour and probably don't want to deal with Blind Scott, Scott will probably go home.

underYa

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(03/18/09 12:15 AM)

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Michael is safe now.
Megan is in Yellow.

SardonicallyIrrelevant

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(03/18/09 12:52 AM)

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Wife
Killer

1

-

Anoop Desai

2-3

-

Lil Rounds

2-3

-

Matt Giraud

4-9
(B3)

-

Kris Allen

4-9
(B3)

-

Adam Lambert

4-10
(B3)

-

Michael Sarver

4-10
(B3)

-

Scott MacIntyre

4-10
(B3)

-

Megan Joy Corkrey

4-11
(B3)

-

Allison Iraheta

6-11
(B3)

-

Alexis Grace

Wow, the last three females left are the bottom three on DI.

Badger03

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(03/18/09 1:44 AM)

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I can't imagine that Allison would actually be in the bottom 3. More than likely, either Scott or Michael will be there tomorrow instead of her.

mungobuh

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(03/18/09 6:39 AM)

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It's interesting that we keep seeing Alexis, Michael and Scott floundering at the bottom. One of the VFTW bloggers had this to say, and it really tends to jibe with the DialIdol numbers we're seeing:

I can't see the bottom 3 being anyone but Alexis, Scott, and Michael. Those 3 left the smallest impression, and people never vote for boring performances. Who goes home? The producers want it to be a guy so that the tour will have 6 guys and 4 girls. Look at it this way, what does the tour already have that it can lose? Well it's either the soul singer (Michael Sarver is easily outsung by Matt and Gokey) or the piano player (Scott loses out to Matt again). So it's a toss up between Scott and Michael. My thought is that the blind storyline is more interesting than the roughneck story line, so the show will probably cut Michael loose. Though I would pay money to see Alexis go home and act like a fool. That girl is an idiot and is polluting my TV with her stupid dirty act.

I think this is a realistic guess as to who goes home, but who knows? All I care is that my boy Adam and my girl Megan are safe this week. They're really the only interesting ones left.

meatball77

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(03/18/09 6:51 AM)

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God, not another girl gone. This is enough of a sausage fest already.

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AI8 Top 11:Call-in Numbers, Busy Signals, DialIdol, BootSpec

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