S18 - Episode 3 - Story Arcs - MESS Hall Tribal Council - Spoiler Related - Survivor Sucks - Message Board

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S18 - Episode 3 - Story Arcs

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Trixiego	S18 - Episode 3 - Story Arcs	Lead	[-]
Posts: 16231 (02/20/09 5:41 AM) Kiss me, I'm Adminish More Recent Posts Message Connection Block Invite	Give your ideas/impressions on how the story arcs are unfolding and how the contestants are being portrayed. Sandy - on hold since they didn't go to TC. I'm sure the "I need to find the durn idol cuz I am next" will happen soon JT/Stephen - Will their love affair continue? Sydney - somewhere in Australia Joe - Wishes Taj's husband was on the island instead of Taj Taj - Becomes Brendan's best friend to take down The Company Spencer - Just happy to be there Tyson - Thinks Jerry is swell Jerry - Thinks Tyson is swell, mantiara and all Sierra - still scared but probably gets another reprieve because someone else screws their game up Coach - Decides a tie will be nice to wear at the next TC Debbie - Gets excited when Sierra and Brendan tell her they are building condos in their camp Brendan - Wonders if his stock at home is ready to sell Erin - Furiously wondering who she can recruit to the Mean Girls
ratsnsnakes		#1	[-]
Posts: 800 (02/20/09 8:49 AM) MESS member More Recent Posts Message Connection Block Invite	O.K. I'll be next: Jalapao - clearly not dysfunctional after all. Taj - if she can keep the sharks from getting rid of her she may stay for awhile. She's got more on the ball in terms of strategy than I thought. On the other hand, they show her scheming about a four way alliance next week and, if I'm not mistaken, she's sitting by the Timbira firepit, so maybe she mutinies. Too much "strategery" early on can get you in trouble. She's also very, very strong physically even without an Olympic gold medal. (snark!) Stephen/JT - The odd couple. Since the editors spent so much time post-challenge showing us their friendship instead of going right to Exile or Timbira, I'm thinking that this is going to be important. Sandy - I still think she'll be going next, but I kind of hope not because she is entertaining as heck. Loved the visual of her hanging onto Erinn (?) by her bikni top in the challenge. And she shouldn't be looking for the immunity idol anymore since it was only good at the first TC, right? Joe - who? Spencer - just happy to be there and a little more wussy about food than I would expect from a Survivor fan. Sydney - who?? Well, actually I guess she scored the first point for Jalapao so she's also a good one to have around for challenges. Timbira: Coach - I have revised my opinion that he isn't that bad. That whole scene with him kissing up, literally, to Candace was just icky. EWWW. And so far I've seen nothing impressive about his work in physical challenges. And that jacket casually slung over the shoulder at TC was just too, too much. Blowhard and total tool. Tyson - much lower key this week. I guess they decided that we all need to ruminate on the man tiaras and going buck nekkid in the first eppy. Jerry - a little more present. I like him, but I fear he's playing it a little too low key. Erinn - darling, if they booted Candace merely for being a negative nelly about another player (and one who so far doesn't seem to be wildly popular with the tribe) what do you think they'll do to you with your "It's way too soon to trust anyone" shtick. PRETEND you trust them, duh. Debby - can anyone really, truly be this perky? (I bet she spells it "Debbi" doesn't she?) At least we finally heard from her. Weird edit though, although Probst was certainly implying she stays awhile, so maybe she's one that we'll know more about later. Sierra - What the hell does Coach have against this girl? She didn't just "try" in the challenges, she was effective in at least keeping the ball away from the other team for awhile unlike some players I could mention. I think Sierra will feel vulnerable for awhile, but I have a feeling she will last. She's got some staying power and I think she may have a good connection to Brendan. Brendan - Here is the real power player on Timbira. He is quietly going about forming alliances in a subtle way. He's got something going with both Taj and Sierra, I absolutely was floored by the way he lied effortlessly to his tribe about who got the clue, and he's good enough in challenges that they'll want to keep him awhile. I like him as someone who will go very far, if not outright win. Oh, and I loved the irony that Taj's team is thinking she's so rich that she doesn't need to win and then she's off at Exile with someone who could buy and sell all of them.
Que		#2	[-]
Posts: 1276 (02/20/09 9:02 AM) MESS member More Recent Posts Message Connection Block Invite	I absolutely was floored by the way he lied effortlessly to his tribe about who got the clue, The best part is that it was a smart lie. The basics of it were true, so if anyone went to exile he wouldn't be caught. (unless Taj is with them) They would see the 2 urns etc... I am liking him alot better than I thought I would. Same with Sierra. She saw she could go off by herself without raising eyebrows, so she had to trust someone...trust the only one who didn't vote for you. Smart. Taj played Exile beautifully, "it's yours, I'll help you look, i'm not going to sit here by myself" and it payed off since the clue helped both of them. Coach... ewww he is just a slime ball. I wouldn't want him anywhere near my daughters soccer team. Love the bromance between TJ and Stephen. I like that Stephen stated that it is someone who out in the real world he would have never gotten to know. And he's learning useful skills. (he's like Gilligan!)
JediJeffro		#3	[-]
Posts: 489 (02/20/09 9:19 AM) Registered user More Recent Posts Message Connection Block Invite	Jalapao Joe - Still nothing. Well, OK, I guess he likes football. Reading to me like the generic in-shape guy of the minority who ends up as one of the first three jury boots. JT - Look! Someone got Bobby Jon anger management! Has the physical game and slid into the easygoing, well-liked leader role, but it's tough to say whether or not he has any game. Stephen thinks he's riding him, which suggests that perhaps the other people in his tribe don't think much of his game skills. Truth be told, JT's character is symptomatic of the fact that we haven't really seen much strategy information at all from Jalapao. Sandy - Using her reprieve well, I think. The Insider clips paint her as definitely close to Spencer, and he probably has enough pull to keep her around for a while. Still don't think she's in it for the long haul, because if she was, we'd have seen her actively targeting Carolina instead of waiting for everyone else to. And I don't care how well they recover, people who get in that deep that early have almost never done well. Somebody compared her to Angie from Palau last week; I could definitely see that for her. Redeems herself over five or six episodes, gets booted because she doesn't make strategic sense for anyone to keep around. Spencer - The enigma. If anyone from Jalapao is going to win, I think it's going to be Spencer. Seems like he's playing a flexible game and seems unlikely to me to end up on the bad side of a blindside. He's going to have to cut dead weight (read: Sandy) at some point, but as long as he can do that smoothly, he can go pretty far. I think he ends up somewhere between fourth and seventh, or possibly as Jalapao's last pre-merge boot if JT/Stephen/Joe don't think he can be trusted. Stephen - Attached to JT. If my gut is right and Jalapao ends up as the minority come merge, he seems like a natural fit for the second member of the jury (or first if JT wins immunity). He'd probably be vulnerable at this point if there weren't bigger or more obvious targets (Sandy, Taj, Sydney?) ahead of him. Did get painted as adaptable and learning, so he's probably safe for 5 or 6 more rounds. Sydney - See Joe. Who? She's probably hanging around the power structure and ends up as early to mid jury. May also end up as a pre-merge "she's too weak" boot. Taj - She probably would have lasted much longer if she could keep her mouth shut. She seems like the logical next boot from Jalapao - she has money in a tribe full of (relatively) poor people, she's the only ethnic minority, she may have trouble controlling her mouth, and perhaps most importantly she's going back to Exile next week, which means there will be rampant suspicions that she has the idol. If she does end up with Brendan again on Exile next week, she'd be smart to try to jump to Timbira where she would be pretty high on the totem pole. If she stays at Jalapao, I think she's blindsided after Sandy is the decoy target. Timbira Ben - Ah, Ben. The season's Uber Douche. Spoilers say he gets deep, but editing says to me he ends up like Truckwaffle. There's already dissent from Sierra and Erinn (and probably Brendan). He seems to have pocketed Debbie and Tyson, which means Jerry is important. If Taj ends up jumping to Timbira, it's so Brendan can get rid of Ben. If the tribal dynamics don't change, I think Ben is able to convince Jerry that Sierra/Erinn are weak and Brendan ends up behind the eight ball. Regardless, I think his struggle with Brendan for power, directly or indirectly, is his pre-merge story and we're left to see him as an annoying evil tyrant post-merge until whoever is with him gets sick of his nonsense and/or decides they can't bear to see him sniff the million. Brendan - As I said above, tied up in a power struggle with Ben. He's been shown connected to Taj, so if she lasts, so does he and they could change the game together. If she doesn't, I think he's in trouble because his two biggest supporters are probably the two weakest physical players on Timbira. I suspect he ends up as Timbira's last pre-merge boot as another of Ben's Bad Apples, or he gets the Gregg Carey slot. Debbie - Could be a winner. She's close to Ben, but hasn't been painted in the same light he has. And if he ends up with the majority, she's going to ride with him a long way. She may end up being seen as riding coat tails, but she certainly has the brain power to stand up for herself and I could see her engineering Ben's boot late in the game. As of right now, I suspect she faces the jury. Erinn - The only good thing that happened for her in this episode is that she voted for Candace. Unfortunately, I don't think it's going to matter. I can't slice tribal dynamics any way on Timbira that doesn't end up with her in the minority, unless Taj jumps. Even if that happens, she's probably fourth or fifth on Brendan's totem pole after himself, Taj and Jerry. She's likely Timbira's next boot. Her only hope, at this point, would be to get exiled, jump, and let the chips fall where they may, or to hope Taj comes over and ride that alliance to fourth place. Jerry - Haven't seen a lot from him, but the way we've seen the other dynamics break down suggests to me that he's in the middle between Ben/Debbie/Tyson and Brendan/Sierra/Erinn. His background suggests to me that he could be fairly easily persuaded that Erinn/Sierra are weaknesses that need to go, which by default lumps him in with Ben. I think he could very well end up laying low all the way to the final four and could see himself in front of the jury. Sierra - She's had two relatively big episodes, but I expect her story to quiet down. Ben doesn't see her as anything resembling a threat, which means he's probably willing to let her slide for a while. Either her or Erinn will end up as the Jenn to Brendan's Gregg, and Erinn was too close to Candace/far from Ben to make that transition successfully. I think she lasts until about the final four and we get a nice, fuzzy redemption arc and a story about how first impressions can be mistaken. She could conceivably be very attractive to a jury, which tells me she won't get to one. Tyson - Another possible winner. Evil!Ian to Ben's Evil!Tom. He's contributing, seems well liked, and could jump to either power player if he really needed to. He had the confessional in Episode One about his winning, which has been a good sign in the past. He definitely seems to me like he could last deep in the game. So, my predictions after episode two: 14. Taj 13. Erinn 12. Sydney 11. Sandy 10. Spencer 9. JT 8. Stephen 7. Joe 6. Brendan 5. Ben 4. Sierra Final Three: Jerry, Debbie, Tyson Ugh, I hope I'm wrong. That would not be an exciting season.
Jaborwok		#4	[-]
Posts: 1604 (02/20/09 11:33 AM) MESS member More Recent Posts Message Connection Block Invite	Just a quick note of something that caught my eye. In the previews Taj was setting on the sand by a big fire pit when she was talking about a secret alliance. What I'm wondering is has there been a switch with her to the other tribe? The "fire pit" was the lie about digging for the HII. When on exile Island there was the option to switch tribes with the HII clue....does Taj go back to exile and then opt for the tribe switch? If so then is the secrete alliance with Brendon, Sierra, ????, and Taj? More later.......
Jedijake		#5	[-]
Posts: 5419 (02/20/09 4:43 PM) MESS member More Recent Posts Message Connection Block Invite	Anyone else think it's odd that SFnet has Sierra listed as "safe" despite being ousted by her tribe already?
Schadenfreude		#6	[-]
Posts: 783 (02/20/09 11:04 PM) MESS member More Recent Posts Message Connection Block Invite	JALAPENO: Taj: I do really like her. I completely, 100% acknowledge that I am projecting my Cirie-love onto her, which may be completely unmerited. That being said, she might be in some trouble. She does NOT appear to be super tight with anyone else on Jalapao, and I kind of think that she's got to be fighting Sandy there for the lowest-on-the-totem pole spot, especially now that her tribemates know that she's an NFL wife (although at least CBS didn't make her wear her husband's jersey like they made Monica and Sheree on TAR umpteen years ago.) I think she's got game, but I do also think, in light of her making herself a target by revealing her husband's identity, that a mutiny would probably benefit her more than it would hurt her. Also, she has the benefit of being able to NOT tell the new tribe about the whole famous husband thing, plus Brendan who might be sympathetic to her plight. Sandy: She keeps slithering along, and I'm kind of rooting for her, although I can't fathom she's going to make it to the end of the game. Joe: He can't be that relevant to the endgame given how little we know of him. Or, alternately, he's just that boring. Stephen: He's playing the New York Jew Beta Male role reasonably well, a role invented by Rob Cesternino many moons ago. He does not appear to be useless, and he's a good right hand man for the indispensable JT, which could fare well for him, but I don't know enough about his actual strategy to say how he's going to do. JT: The strong, quiet, hardworking leader type that more likely than not is going to be hosed come a tribe swap or a merge. Sydney: She's so the archetype of the bland but attractive mid-jury female contestant that doesn't really make any waves. Spencer: I keep waiting for the fanboy to come out and whip out some mad strategizing, but I think Spencer is smart enough to know right now to not make waves. He's not overplaying his hand yet, which I think is a good sign. He knows how to play this game, and as Natalie taught us, it's not necessarily a bad thing to lie low pre-merge. TAMBOURINE: Dynamic-wise, this tribe reminds me SO, SO MUCH of the Boran tribe from Survivor Africa. Coach: Starring Coach in the role of Lex 2.0, only douchier. He talks a good game about wanting the "strong" to survive, when really he just wants a core group of alpha males and obedient females to be enough of a powerhouse to be able to take a solid alliance to the end, where everyone will fight over who gets to lose to him. Coach v. Candace was SUCH a replay of Kelly Goldsmith's ouster it wasn't even funny. I think it IS interesting, though, that he's being shown as overhyped, because he doesn't seem to be all that phenomenal in challenges even though he should seem to be on paper. Debbie: Now, I am not wild about her so far, but I think her strategy right now is this: stick with the asshole alpha male Coach and ride him to the end. Assuming Debbie, as a middle school principal by profession, presumably has above-average people skills and people reading skills, I honestly don't think it's a bad plan. Let the testosterone flare and take out the "weak" women, and she can trot along as the Kim Johnson to Coach's Lex. Plus, Coach is such an arrogant tool, he'd be an attractive final opponent who, like Lex before him, would assume he'd win against any opponent in the final. Or, alternately, she has no strategy and is shoulder-deep up Coach's colon for no reason. Your call. Brendan: Gotta say, I really like his position. He seems to be someone that everyone goes through and tries to align with... Coach, Sierra, and Taj all felt that he was someone that they could confide in. Being the one that everyone feels is their go-to is HUGE. Tina, Ethan, Jenna, and Tom all filled that role on their respective seasons and it worked for them. Question is, will Coach can on to the fact that he poses a COLOSSAL threat, or does he actually believe that he's safer amongst alpha males? Erinn: She needs the opportunity to mutiny after speaking up in tribal council. Clearly on the outs, Coach is not going to value her, and she will see through him, and he can't have that. Sierra: Interesting position. If she can suck it up and play the grateful tag-along role to Coach, she's probably going to buy herself some time, if only to outlast Erinn who seems in a more tenuous social position. I find her arc really interesting, it seems to be all narrative from her tribemates to the tune of "wow, she tries really hard, but... probably not enough." Tyson: I really don't know where he fits in. I think Coach sees him as a worthy alpha-male, and I think he's too valuable to be in any danger. I think he seems an unlikely fit for an alliance with Coach and Debbie, though. No clue. I think he has game, and I don't think people will take him seriously as they should. Jerry: Lying low, trying not to make waves, which is not a bad plan, really. I don't know as how I see him in major contention to win, but I don't see him immediately on the chopping block. Where does he fit in? Candace: I think she was completely, 100% right about Coach not being that strong and being an egotistical horse's ass. Unfortunately, he had the votes and she did not.
Jedijake		#7	[-]
Posts: 5428 (02/21/09 9:14 AM) MESS member More Recent Posts Message Connection Block Invite	They sure did emphasize the strong, alpha male as being arrogant, egotistical, and not that strong in challenges. It almost makes you wonder if they aren't putting reasons out there early that Coach does not win. It's almost like Ozzy in his 2nd episode (although he was strong). The distrust and angst against Ozzy in episode 2 of Cook Islands seemed to be the thorn in his side for the rest of the season, even when he was a hero.
ratsnsnakes		#8	[-]
Posts: 807 (02/21/09 11:35 AM) MESS member More Recent Posts Message Connection Block Invite	Debbie reminds me more of a Tina than a Mama Kim, Schadenfreude. I tend to think that she does have a game plan (although she completely bought Sierra's "we're building a fire pit" which seem ludicrous, but hey, now they have a fire pit.) I think it's really interesting that someone we've been shown as arrogant and annoying has the level of power he does in that tribe. Is it because Tyson and Brendan and Jerry and possibly Debbie are basically letting him? And yeah, Jedi, I think they are giving us reasons that Coach doesn't win, although from what we've seen so far, the inevitability of him winning isn't really there. I still think Brendan is the one to watch there. He has real power in terms of the social and it isn't obvious which can only work to his advantage.
Jedijake		#9	[-]
Posts: 5431 (02/21/09 2:54 PM) MESS member More Recent Posts Message Connection Block Invite	Brenden reminds me of Cirie during Micronesia. Tons of airtime while on exile island. But yeah, he's at least someone to watch. Stephen is giving me MAJOR Rob vibes (both C and M). The yankee in him doesn't hurt that cause of course. JT could either be Stephen's "Hunter" or his "Alex".
Backupforgrabs		#10	[-]
Posts: 326 (02/21/09 4:24 PM) Registered user More Recent Posts Message Connection Block Invite	Dalton Ross wrote in his EW blog: "But before we could follow Brendan and Taj to Exile Island, we were treated to city slicker Stephen discussing his man-crush on country boy J.T. ''He might just be seducing me with his pretty country ways,'' said Stephen as J.T. showed him how to fish, ''but I'm smitten.'' Holy crap! Do you know what we have here? It's the new Charlie and Marcus! I can't wait till they're frolicking on the beach together at Ponderosa filming their big honeymoon video." I know he's trying to be funny, but there just seems to be something about it that rings true. Looks like they make the Jury. I'm not sure how mutiny works. Anytime, or only when returning from exile? Only Brendan because he picked the right egg, or can Taj because he told her?
Kirblar		#11	[-]
Posts: 7638 (02/21/09 4:27 PM) Registered user More Recent Posts Message Connection Block Invite	I think both of them have the option to swap, but I'm not sure. (It would be kinda....silly if only the person who got the correct egg could swap.)
ChynS		#12	[-]
Posts: 889 (02/21/09 5:38 PM) Registered user More Recent Posts Message Connection Block Invite	If either of them could jump tribe, why didn't they just put that message in both "eggs" and clue for HII in one "egg"? I'm still not clear on that. How about the clue Sandy and Sierra each gotten for that hii that should only be useful in the very first TC of the season?? Did anyone explain that one yet? I thought Sandy-what's-a-pace? may had trouble understanding the wording to that, but Sierra obviously believe that hii is still useful. She had Brendan look at the clue as well. Of course Brendan is the one who couldn't understand where the Tribal Homeland was, .... oh well. Maybe JP will get to burn another HII this season. Maybe I misunderstand the whole deal.
birdlady		#13	[-]
Posts: 2251 (02/21/09 7:24 PM) Registered user More Recent Posts Message Connection Block Invite	I think the ones hidden for Sandy and Sierra were for the first time their tribe went to tribal council. So Sandy's expired after the first week, but Sierra's would have been good last week. I can think of situations where it would make sense for the person with the clue to mutiny. Like, if they had already found the idol at their original camp, and wanted to go get the other one. I think it might be that after one person switches, it will be easier for other people to switch. In Cook Islands, there was only one chance, so the rest of the game was Death to Traitor Candace. If people switch all the time, it gets to be no big deal, potato/potahto.
ChynS		#14	[-]
Posts: 893 (02/21/09 8:10 PM) Registered user More Recent Posts Message Connection Block Invite	Birdlady, we were talking about whether or not the Exed who picked the empty "egg" could still have the option to jump tribe. Many posters think it's opened to both since the note says "you could choose to share(PP)". That's why I said: If either of them could jump tribe, why didn't they just put that message in both "eggs" and clue for HII in one "egg"? I'm still not clear on that.
Schadenfreude		#15	[-]
Posts: 784 (02/21/09 11:17 PM) MESS member More Recent Posts Message Connection Block Invite	It almost makes you wonder if they aren't putting reasons out there early that Coach does not win. It's almost like Ozzy in his 2nd episode (although he was strong). The distrust and angst against Ozzy in episode 2 of Cook Islands seemed to be the thorn in his side for the rest of the season, even when he was a hero. Yeah, that's what I'm wondering... a scenario where Coach makes the final, assumes everyone would bow to his superiority... and then loses to one of his minions makes a lot of sense. What I am feeling here is that the predominant arc here is that the men are seen as being the dominant players, the strategists, the strong, the competent, (aside from Coach, with the edit revealing his weaknesses, and the neglected Joe) and the women are almost ALL being edited as being weak, in danger, or social misfits. Of the eight women on this season, Sierra, Sandy, Erinn, Carolina, and Candice were ALL given edits in the first two episodes that indicated that they were perceived as weak, perceived as social outcasts (two of which were subsequently voted out), or were potential targets, and, truthfully, Taj's edit left some doubt that she wouldn't also face some danger based on the revelation of her husband's identity and wealth. Sierra and Sandy have some space to develop as "redeemed" players, although I just do not see how Erinn is going to fit in on that tribe. Who of the women does that leave? Sydney, who is a virtual non-entity, Taj, and Debbie. Taj I suspect is not actually going to factor in the endgame so much as be a well-liked strong female character that the Cirie fans are going to rally behind. She had an edit where she was shown as being a potential target due to her not needing the million, but conversely we did not see her perceived as being weak or disliked, just some eyebrows raised. But Debbie has a strange edit. Is she being hidden? Is she a more introverted lay-low Danni and Vecepia kind of player? Or is there no there there? Debbie reminds me more of a Tina than a Mama Kim, Schadenfreude. I tend to think that she does have a game plan (although she completely bought Sierra's "we're building a fire pit" which seem ludicrous, but hey, now they have a fire pit.) I think it's really interesting that someone we've been shown as arrogant and annoying has the level of power he does in that tribe. Is it because Tyson and Brendan and Jerry and possibly Debbie are basically letting him? I want to see some more of Debbie. She seems to be the ONE woman who appears to be on the inside of that core alliance over on Timbira, and yet we don't know much about her aside from her being a cheerleader at the challenges and rats out Candace's duplicity to her alliancemates. If her core group is supposed to be Coach and Tyson, why did we see so much of THEM in the premiere but she's remained hidden? Her Insider videos indicate that she's going to play a strong social game, and I think she's standing back and not making waves. Is she playing a game such that she ends up in the final with two players who, although strong, are going to be much-disliked? Or is she just kind of along for the ride with the strong guys? Brendan, though, is who I'm really keeping my eye on. The question is whether or not the Coach-Tyson-Debbie troika are going to recognize him for the massive threat he really is. So many of this season's contestants seem like editing echoes of past players or hybrids of two past players. We have Lex redux in Coach, Cirie redux in Taj, a weird Cesternino/Charlie hybrid in Stephen, either a new Mama Kim or new Tina in Debbie, Candace being edited as oddly Kelly Goldsmith-like, potentially a cooler-headed Todd redux in Spencer, Sandy who appears to be some weird cross between Twila and Kathy... which, truthfully, makes me wonder about any of these players' chances, especially those parroting former winners. Potential winners: Brendan, Stephen, Tyson (as complicated anti-hero? We're overdue for a not-beloved winner edited as such, although I suspect they try harder to make the winners more palatable after the back-to-back wins of Brian and Jenna), Coach (admittedly seems more likely to be set up in a "why he lost" arc like Rob Mariano and Steph got), Debbie (as surprise hidden winner as part of "how Coach lost" arc a la Danni?), Taj (Cirie's Revenge!), maybe Spencer with some more development, Sierra as a longshot. Not likely: JT (edit would fawn over a player like him winning and set him up as a clear hero with higher visibility), Sandy (interesting edit, but barring a Kathy-esque 180 change in her position, seems unlikely she'd actually win), Jerry (would have a more visible hero edit, I feel, if he actually won), Sydney and Joe (non-entities), Erinn (just don't see her having the positioning she needs to make it that far).
I LUV TIJUANA		#16	[-]
Posts: 12145 (02/22/09 2:12 AM) Registered user More Recent Posts Message Connection Block Invite	I am going to disagree with the popular opinion here and say that Erinn is not doomed at all. First of all, she would not be on Probst's list of characters if she was an early boot who did not really contribute a whole lot to the overall game or provide much entertainment. Second, I think her comments at Tribal Council were meant to show us she is thinking and is playing the game how it should be played, and showed Debbie as someone who is foolish. I don't think it was meant to show us that she was on the outs. Obviously she could not have been that close with Candace, considering she voted for her. If Timbira goes to Tribal Council, I think Jerry will be the one leaving. I have a feeling he's just not going to provide anything valuable to the team, or he will threaten Ben's role as leader.
tullfan2		#17	[-]
Posts: 3141 (02/22/09 9:33 AM) Registered User More Recent Posts Message Connection Block Invite	If Timbira goes to TC next (which seems likely based on episode 2 editing), I see only the 3 women being potential targets. Sierra could be a target because she is still viewed as weak based on the bad first impression. Erinn is a potential target because she admitted that she doesn't trust anyone and she is on a tribe where trust issues are important. Debbie could be blindsided because she is too trusting and is the weakest of the 'I love Coach club'. The Erinn vs. Debbie confrontation at TC over trust issues came from out of nowhere, so there is a fair chance that this was shown to set up the next boot story. The only contestants shown to be in danger on Jalapao are Taj and Sandy. The story arc that Taj is a target because she is perceived as wealthy has led to her forming an agreement with Brendan on Exile Island. So it looks like she will end up screwing over Jalapao post-switch or post-merge. I don't see Sandy getting booted for a while. Spencer said that Sandy will be booted next on Jalapao and based on how the editing has typically worked that means that she will not be the next one out. Unless someone from Jalapao really screws up in the IC, causing the tribe to lose, or someone gets hurt, Jalapao looks safe next episode. There are more issues on Timbira whereas Jalapao is a more harmonious tribe.
Mikester		#18	[-]
Posts: 1282 (02/22/09 12:43 PM) More Recent Posts Message Connection Block Invite	I LUV TIJUANA wrote: I am going to disagree with the popular opinion here and say that Erinn is not doomed at all. First of all, she would not be on Probst's list of characters if she was an early boot who did not really contribute a whole lot to the overall game or provide much entertainment. Second, I think her comments at Tribal Council were meant to show us she is thinking and is playing the game how it should be played, and showed Debbie as someone who is foolish. I don't think it was meant to show us that she was on the outs. Obviously she could not have been that close with Candace, considering she voted for her. If Timbira goes to Tribal Council, I think Jerry will be the one leaving. I have a feeling he's just not going to provide anything valuable to the team, or he will threaten Ben's role as leader. Yeah, I agree. I don't think Erinn is going anywhere anytime soon. She's probably in danger this episode, but I don't think she's going. I'm thinking Debbie is the most logical boot for Timbira. The TC last night showed her talking about how much she trusted her tribe. What better way to set up another "blindside" that Probst has been hyping everyone for then to edit her as naive and trusting? The previews also seemed to suggest that Tyson was considering betraying Coach. I really can't see Coach going this early, so his lapdog Debbie seems like the more reasonable option. Jerry being a possibility, but unlikely, considering Tyson seems to be able to use Jerry pretty easily.
rower	Episode 3 - Story Arcs	#19	[-]
Posts: 1891 (02/22/09 4:53 PM) Registered User More Recent Posts Message Connection Block Invite	Well we know that Sierra only trusted Brenden enough to tell him about the HII that was available to her for the first TC. Sierra I see subscribing to the motto of "keep your friends close and your enemies closer" philosophy because she has been showing her subservience to Coach. (Which Coach in his ego is buying into completely) I suspect that Sierra is only waiting until something better comes along.... and that someone would be Brenden. Erinn may have voted for Candace because she felt she had no choice given the Coach/Debbi/Tyson/Jerry alliance. Actually it was a smart "survivor" move. However her comments to Debbi at TC shows that she at least knows the reality of trusting on survivor. I see her hooking up with Sierra because she knows that Sierra has been a target as well. Sierra will convience her to trust Brenden. Brenden knows of Coach's plan of survivor of the fittest but fittingly said in a confessional "he may be a coach but he's not my coach." Shows he is thinking smart as well. I think he is biding his time and waiting for the people to come to him. I suspect that both Sierra and Erinn will approach him and a new alliance will be formed. Look to Tyson to make is a force that will usurp Ben's position and watch Debbi (and her misplaced trust) take the walk of shame. I see these three aligning.
montanagirl		#20	[-]
Posts: 744 (02/23/09 3:43 PM) MESS member More Recent Posts Message Connection Block Invite	I'm really liking Brendan's game so far. And I dig Sierra and Tyson. Coach adds something interesting, but he sure is coming off douchey, isn't he? Debbi must have some quality that we don't know about yet, because I can't see how she is being a big contributor to their physical game at all. Jerry is meh so far and Erinn can go. SHe does nothing for me. Loving Taj. Not sure why she painted her target with the Eddie George info so soon. Also like the JT / Spencer stuff going on. Hoping she can get these two on her side somehow. Joe, Sydney - meh. SPencer fanboy is cute if he can hold it together. Sandy is a hoot, hope she stays a bit longer. Way better TV than the meh twins. Hopes for the jury: Brendan, Sierra, Tyson, Jerry, Coach Taj, JT, Spencer Stephen, Sandy

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S18 - Episode 3 - Story Arcs

S18 - Episode 3 - Story Arcs