I've been thinking of doing a thread on this topic for awhile. So I decided to use Post #15,000 to begin.
What are some of the recurring features we see, season after season, of the gameplay of those who win? I'm thinking of things like alliance positioning, fate in switches, number of betrayals, and status as a mastermind or follower.
Let's start with the main rule of early gameplay.
Rule #1
You must get into the majority alliance before the switch or the merge to win Survivior.
Every winner has done this. Nobody who failed at it has ever won.
Yes, Richard didn't vote with the majority for Sonja, but that was before alliances had formed. Yes, Tina was 5th in the Ogakor alliance but she improved her position with the Mitchell boot. Even Vee and Danni were solidly in the majority pre-switch, and Bob was 5th in the Onions from the start.
Why is getting into the majority so important?
1) It vastly increases your odds of making the merge, even if there is a switch. Most of those failing to make the majority alliance become premerge boot. Look what happened to the older women in Amazon, the young guys in Vanuatu, etc.
(2) It means you are decent social player. If you aren't likeable enough to get in the main alliance, how can you expect to win a jury vote?
(3) It allows you to reach the endgame without doing a lot of betrayals. Outcasts usually have to turn on their tribe to go far, giving them the double stigma of being not only disliked but seen as traitors.
The best showings by players not getting into the majority are the following:
Teresa S3, Neleh\Kathy S4, Matt S6, Lill S7, Eliza S9, Cindy\Judd S11, Ozzy S13, Cassandra\Dreamz S14, Sugar S17
Matt and Ozzy illustrae Point 2. They became fan faves, were great workers and provides, and hardly betrayed anyone. But the loss of all their original allies premerge, plus their limited social\strategic game, prevented them from winning a jury vote. Ozzy only come close with 2 votes from Rebecca and Jenny, who never met him in the game.
Likewise, Cindy and Judd were outsiders at original Nakum but improved their position when they hooked up with Steph after the switch. Yet in the end, Danni's superiority as a social\strategic player, which allowed heer to best them at the beginning, also allowed her to get in with Rafe and take their place in F4.
Neleh, Lill, Cassie\Dreamz, and Sugar illustrate Point 3. Each had to betray the main alliance on their tribe in order to reach the endgame, which made them traitors. Now a charming social player like Rob C might be able to overcome that, but not somebody who wasn't liked or respected enough initially to make it into the majority. So Lill, Dreamz, and Sugar become 3 of the most hated players ever by their casts. Neleh did somewhat better because she wasn't a lone traitor, but had Paschal and Kathy to vote for her.
Teresa, Kathy, and Eliza come closest to beating the odds. They could have won if they'd got to the end. Teresa turned the tables on the Mallrats preswitch, while Kathy and Eliza won respect as the game went on and weren't really blamed for the powershifts that got them further. But ultimately, they just didn't have enough allies to get to the end.
So while people like to root for underdogs, the reality is that anyone failing to get into the ruling clique at the beginning, at least as a fringe member member who can latter move up (Tina, Cirie, Bob), has virtually no chance of winning the game.
What are some of the recurring features we see, season after season, of the gameplay of those who win? I'm thinking of things like alliance positioning, fate in switches, number of betrayals, and status as a mastermind or follower.
Let's start with the main rule of early gameplay.
Rule #1
You must get into the majority alliance before the switch or the merge to win Survivior.
Every winner has done this. Nobody who failed at it has ever won.
Yes, Richard didn't vote with the majority for Sonja, but that was before alliances had formed. Yes, Tina was 5th in the Ogakor alliance but she improved her position with the Mitchell boot. Even Vee and Danni were solidly in the majority pre-switch, and Bob was 5th in the Onions from the start.
Why is getting into the majority so important?
1) It vastly increases your odds of making the merge, even if there is a switch. Most of those failing to make the majority alliance become premerge boot. Look what happened to the older women in Amazon, the young guys in Vanuatu, etc.
(2) It means you are decent social player. If you aren't likeable enough to get in the main alliance, how can you expect to win a jury vote?
(3) It allows you to reach the endgame without doing a lot of betrayals. Outcasts usually have to turn on their tribe to go far, giving them the double stigma of being not only disliked but seen as traitors.
The best showings by players not getting into the majority are the following:
Teresa S3, Neleh\Kathy S4, Matt S6, Lill S7, Eliza S9, Cindy\Judd S11, Ozzy S13, Cassandra\Dreamz S14, Sugar S17
Matt and Ozzy illustrae Point 2. They became fan faves, were great workers and provides, and hardly betrayed anyone. But the loss of all their original allies premerge, plus their limited social\strategic game, prevented them from winning a jury vote. Ozzy only come close with 2 votes from Rebecca and Jenny, who never met him in the game.
Likewise, Cindy and Judd were outsiders at original Nakum but improved their position when they hooked up with Steph after the switch. Yet in the end, Danni's superiority as a social\strategic player, which allowed heer to best them at the beginning, also allowed her to get in with Rafe and take their place in F4.
Neleh, Lill, Cassie\Dreamz, and Sugar illustrate Point 3. Each had to betray the main alliance on their tribe in order to reach the endgame, which made them traitors. Now a charming social player like Rob C might be able to overcome that, but not somebody who wasn't liked or respected enough initially to make it into the majority. So Lill, Dreamz, and Sugar become 3 of the most hated players ever by their casts. Neleh did somewhat better because she wasn't a lone traitor, but had Paschal and Kathy to vote for her.
Teresa, Kathy, and Eliza come closest to beating the odds. They could have won if they'd got to the end. Teresa turned the tables on the Mallrats preswitch, while Kathy and Eliza won respect as the game went on and weren't really blamed for the powershifts that got them further. But ultimately, they just didn't have enough allies to get to the end.
So while people like to root for underdogs, the reality is that anyone failing to get into the ruling clique at the beginning, at least as a fringe member member who can latter move up (Tina, Cirie, Bob), has virtually no chance of winning the game.
