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By Erinn Lobdell Special to OnMilwaukee.com E-mail author | Author bio More articles by Erinn Lobdell

Published Oct. 30, 2009 at 9:50 a.m.

All right folks, lets talk strategy.

This week, we are starting to see the game change. As numbers are starting to dwindle, the castaways see a tribal merge on the horizon and they are starting to play accordingly. There is a very basic strategy in the beginning stages of the game. Early on, the vote is based on keeping a strong, cohesive group that can win challenges. Survivor 101 says you vote out the weak, the lazy, the hell-raisers and the "just-don't-fit-ins."

The hope is that you are left with a tight-knit group that you can trust to protect you once the tribes merge. It is also advantageous to go into the merge with more people on your tribe, as it will give you a voting majority.

Last night's episode was a good one. It was chock full of incredibly strategic moves, and it is becoming clear that one of these tribes is doing things right.

Over in Galu's camp, Erik is really starting to emerge as a player in this game. He has a Hidden Immunity Idol, which -- when used correctly -- is like liquid gold. In a brilliant move that I felt was far beyond his seemingly dim mental capacity, he has Shambo elected as the new chief.

The hope is that this show of faith will secure her as the fifth and final member of his alliance, giving them the majority. It's a pretty good place to be. "Survivor" is a numbers game and Erik is on the right side of the numbers. Headed to a merge with a stacked alliance on a stacked tribe, it's as though he could have full control over the way the game plays out.

There is something to be said about Foa Foa, though. They just can't seem to catch a break when it comes to challenges. To lose eight out of ten challenges has got to be incredibly discouraging, but with each vote they trim the fat. The tougher "Survivor" gets, the tighter your bond becomes.

At this point, these four are probably liable to walk through fire for each other. Even Russell. Probably not to save anyone's life, but everyone seemed to like it when he said he was a firefighter and it would surely win him some jury votes. And, we cant ignore the fact that he may have had a major pull with Laura, tugging on her religious heartstrings like that! Downright shameless, but smart.

Each tribe truly has an advantage going into the merge, but it is all about how you play the game from here on out. On the surface, it looks as though Erik's plan could really work. Except that he is kind of a tool. Voting Shambo to be the new leader clearly had the girls' heads spinning. Supposedly, no one even likes Sham, yet she emerges victorious in a 30-second vote ... That has got to be confusing.

Then, in her first act as chief, she banishes their Mother Hen from their pirate ship reward. Galu is such a big tribe with so much dissension they surely will implode before they manage to pick off all four of Foa Foa. It is obvious that a line has been drawn between the men and women.

With Russell's affinity for "dumb-ass girls," this could be dangerous to the men of Galu, especially with Laura in his pocket. She could easily jump ship and take her baby chicks with her. It still remains anyone's game, but at this point, my money is on Russell, like him or not.

By Erinn Lobdell Special to OnMilwaukee.com E-mail author | Author bio More articles by Erinn Lobdell

Published Nov. 6, 2009 at 10:41 a.m.

Never before has there been such an aptly named episode of "Survivor," and what a great episode it was, with fighting, scrambling and an epic blindside. This is the what we have been waiting for in the middle of this kind of lame season.

As Day 19 opens with a merge, we get a major dose of feelgoodieness before everyone realizes just how much the game changes when you are playing for a team of one. This was a fantastic episode -- FANTASTIC -- but I can't help wondering if "Survivor: Samoa" is just a game of mistakes. They just keep making them, over and over. It is starting to look like the winner this season will just be the one who keeps his or her nose the cleanest.

When I was in Tocantins, I had a very simple strategy. Having seen many previous seasons of the show, I decided to learn from the mistakes of others. I compiled a set of rules that I called my "Do Not Break List." I adhered to them vigilantly and I attribute that set of rules to keeping me in the game as long as I was. In no way are they less than obvious, in fact, I think they should be added to last week's "Survivor, 101" It is unbelievable to me that not one, but four were broken this week! Four! I should teach a class on this, and the Samoan cast should take it.

I think it would go something like this:

Lesson 1: Don't Ever Accuse or Argue
Laura, I don't care if you watched Shambo smash your canteen into a thousand pieces, you never should have come at her in such an accusatory fashion and then you really shouldn't have argued with her in front of everyone. People are always looking to place an "X" on someone else's back. The fact that she made something out of nothing and created some very public dissension made it very easy for people to go along with the plan to get rid of her. I think Erik said it best, "We know Shambo's crazy, so if you get in a fight with Shambo, who's the one that looks bad? You look bad."

Lesson 2: Don't Share Too Much With Too Many
I understand that Russell had to talk to a few different people before he connected, but did he have to show them all the idol? He could have pulled them in without it. I trusted Stephen and JT with my life in Tocantins and I NEVER knew they had the idol. It was an unnecessary move, Russ. The whole point of the Hidden Immunity Idol is that it is hidden. The other point to consider is that when you make promises to too many people, they will talk and they will figure it out.

Lesson 3: Don't Get Cocky
Let me recap some of last night's awesome sound bites. "Extended family? What's Samoan for 'Get the hell off my island?'" And, "Nobody talks to Shambo, I don't give a f--- if she votes for Probst tonight." What about, "I struggle to see anything that Foa Foa has to offer Galu," and my favorite was to Jaison -- "If I was your coach I would say 'That's what I like to hear.'"

Do we need to keep talking about why Erik was voted out? It's too bad that he couldn't keep his mouth shut. He was a strategic player, performed well in the challenges AND he had an idol. (I mean, really, even the people who are recruited for this show are given the previous season on DVD. Apparently he missed the episode where Brendan was voted out of Tocantins.)

Lesson 4: Don't Panic. Ever
Not in a challenge, not in a tribal council and certainly not when it involves playing an idol. This game can certainly make you paranoid, but Russell panicked for no reason when he played that Idol. The Idol is the only power he had in his alliances. Without it, there are some major flaws in his foolproof plan and it's becoming clear that his days are numbered.

These aren't all of my rules, but its looking like you'll be seeing more in the weeks to come as more and more of them are being broken. Hopefully, these people will learn how to play before its too late.

Thanks. This Samoa season sucks so bad (mainly due to the ridiculous Russhole-centered editing) that I had to go back to Tocantins.

I'm glad to see Erinn agree with me about this season.


And Stephen is even plugging her blog in his blog thread.