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 parvati lover |
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Posts: 89 (03/14/09 8:21 AM) Registered user |
I agree, Stephen Erin Sierra thats in order that i believe have the best chance of winning....I would say Erin, or Sierra because they are from the more visible and complex tribe, however the EA is giving Stephen that complexity its almost as if he and Taj(<--too OOT) are part of the other tribe and the rest of their tribe minus a little for JT dont have any complexity and do not matter at all. I see the winner either coming from Timbira, and or from the EA. |
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craig |
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Posts: 15183 (03/14/09 8:25 AM) Registered User |
Newsflash - based on the full Voting Confessionals (Insider) and Spencer's interviews, it appears that the editing of the last episode was very simplified
and distorted.
Stephen (Spencer): (doing what seems to be a mafioso impression) Tonight, the Jalapao family settles all it's unfinished business.Official Edited Story - Spencer was booted because of challenge failure, with a hint that JT didn't like him for personal reasons. JT was calling the shots, Stephen was his right-hand man. and Taj was the decoy boot. Real Story - Spencer says he made up with JT, they smoothed over the challenge issue. The boot really was between him and Sydney, with Stephen wanting him out because he was a superfan and untrustworthy, and Joe wanting to protect Sydney. That's why Stephen gave him the Godfather voting confessional, and Taj said "your alliance" (Joe & Syd) told me to do it. Question: Does the omission of Stephen's strategic role in Spencer's boot hurt his winning changes? Or was it necessary to simplify things in this way to tell a clear story in limited time? |
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 Jedijake |
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Posts: 5531 (03/14/09 8:49 AM) MESS member |
They are holding back on Stephen far too much for him to be the winner in my opinion. However, they are putting him out there as a definite strategist. We just
aren't seeing enough depth. I'm not even sure if he's supposed to be a decoy winner. I think that Brenden and Taj are supposed to be filling that
role. I can see where he's getting the strategic quiet edit while hovering in the background. I just can't put my finger on his situation.
I get the impression that Stephen does things later that put a mark on his head. I get this feeling that, since everyone trusts him, he turns around and screws over several people, possibly breaking up the EA down the road. Maybe he joins up with Coach and Tyson to bust up Taj and Brenden? I just get this feeling that it's a "calm before the storm" kinda thing. Perhaps he screws over JT, the EA (Taj and Brenden at least), then turns around and screws over Coach and Tyson-burning every bridge he makes. I just get this feeling that he's a player, but not a winner. And overplaying could be his undoing. A Stephen/Erinn final 2 would be very interesting. |
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Oowatanite |
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Posts: 7111 (03/14/09 10:26 AM) Registered User |
scepticA wrote:Thanks ! But it's not a fan club, it's more of "Erinn is one of the top three winners edgically" club. Others may still have Brendan and JT and Tyson as top contenders and I disagree but I don't blame it on fandom. IMHO, there are only three candidates left. In order, from best to worst, Erinn, Stephen, Sierra. All three could be the winner edgically. Unless all three go INV or get booted, no one else makes the cut. IMHO. 3. Sierra. Sierra's dropping. She's showing overconfidence too early and too often. The EA is her ONLY story right now. Taj is the big EA distraction. Brendan is the second EA distraction. Stephen is hidden and more developed than Sierra. Sierra is simply the head cheerleader at this time. She shows zero doubt in the EA. There is limited interaction shown with the other Timbiras. Why ? We don't know. Sierra was shown in Ep1 as being on the outs with her tribe. She recovered from that. Bravo. Since then, Brendan brought her into the EA and that's been it for Sierra. Her "tailored UTR edit" is much too simple - "EA Rulez!". At this point, Sierra will be dropped when we reach the "top two" Edgic winner picks. 2. Stephen. He's not on the complex tribe. He had an okay first episode. But he's part of the EA. And he's the only one of the EA who has been shown to doubt his allies and who is keeping his options open. Sierra and Taj and Brendan have been cheerleaders. "We're #1". "Final four, baby". "EA to the end". "Top of the world". Lookin' down on creation, the only explanation I can find is that Stephen could slide his way to the end and win. 1. Erinn. Erinn's not in the EA. Yet. So she doesn't get the pimping of the editors of this "unprecedented cross-tribal alliance". It's acknowledged by most edgicers that Erinn's story arc will reach the jury stage, at least. At this time Erinn is a floater. She has no close allies and was only saved by Jerry's illness. She is next on the chopping block at Timbira, unless the power players go after each other. There is limited interaction shown with the other Timbiras. Why ? We DO know. The teary confessional in Ep 4 showed us why. So what does Erinn have going for her ? She's smart. She's observant. She's well-spoken. She gives snarky confessionals about Coach. She owns the TCs so far. And she's a free agent. She could join up with the EA post-merge. She can be used as a third for Brendan and Sierra's advantage over Stephen and Taj. But Oo, so could Debbie! Yup, so could Debbie. Except that Debbie has been given a sucky edit. Erinn has been edited as the plucky underdog to the jackass villain Coach and the goofball villain Tyson. There has been lots of back-and-forth shown between Erinn and Coach - at camp, at TC, during confessionals. Erinn will outlast Coach. No question. Erinn will also outlast Tyson. No question. But the antagonism between Erinn and Tyson is all one way - Tyson uses confessionals to downgrade poor Erinn, even if he has had, by his own admission, limited interaction with her. What does this mean ? I believe that Erinn is willing to work with Tyson. And I think that Tyson will need to work with Erinn in the future. After which, she will blindside him ! 
If there's been a "tailored" edit so far this season, it's Erinn's edit. She hasn't been in the spotlight because she's not OTT like Coach and Sandy and Tyson. She's not in the EA like Taj and Brendan and Sierra and Stephen. But we know more about Erinn than we do about Joe and Sydney and Debbie and even Sierra. When Timbira goes to TC, we see some sort of development in Erinn's background, her character, or whatever. When Timbira doesn't go to TC, Erinn does not disappear. Like Debbie and Candace and Sydney and Spencer. We still get some sort of info about her. |
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Warrior |
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Posts: 2839 (03/14/09 10:31 AM) Registered User |
EPISODE 5
JT - OTT3 A weird rating for a weird edit…not 1 subtitled confessional. Visibility - Medium 3 I think that his extra visibility at the IC was offset buy the fact that he had no confessionals.
Joe - MOR4 Best supporting actor in Taj's story. Visibility - Weak 4
Spencer - CP4 Very nice exit edit! He is one of the lucky ones. Visibility Strong 4
Stephen - CP3 Great…just great, now I don't know who wins! Great edit for Stephen. Visibility - Strong 3
Sydney - UTR2 Best supporting actress in Spencer's exit story.
Taj - CPM5 The Star Of The Show.
Ben - UTRN2 Man…the editors hate this guy! Visibility - Weak 2 or strong 1
Brendan - MOR3 Just when I was ready to take him down as my top pick the editors edit in "doubt"...and they didn't even go to TC! DANG. Great…just great, now I don't know who wins! Visibility - Solid 3
Debra - UTR1 Being that this is the fifth episode and all we got from her was background noise she should probably be INV. Visibility -1
Erinn - UTR1 Crazy edit for Erinn…I just get this sense that we are going to see a lot of her at some point. Visibility - Solid 1
Sierra - UTR2 This is the third "good" UTR for her in a row. (by my chart) Great…just great, now I don't know who wins! Visibility - Medium 2
Tyson - MOR1 Targets Brendan. Another odd rating for an odd edit. Visibility - Strong 1
I think that we got some very good puzzle pieces in this episode.
There are 6 people on the team. 3 - 2 - 1 The players with the most strings to the future in their edits are: Brendan, Sierra, Erinn, Stephen and Taj….probable 4 of the final 5. Erinn seems to be edited as the swing vote that takes out Ben and Tyson.
4) Brendan and Stephen meet and bond their alliance.
The editors were continuing to build the Exile Alliance story this episode…along with TJ busted a tooth and Spencer went home. Winner pick: 
Last Edited By: Warrior
03/14/09 10:46 AM.
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Kitty Pryde1 |
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Posts: 9072 (03/14/09 11:24 AM) |
There are essentially four people at this point who are still edgically viable. And here are my thoughts in order from least to most viable.
4. Erinn Pros: She has a heavily manipulated edit, and for a girl that could easily have been UTR early on in the show, the editors made a point to keep her around and make her visible in those first two episodes. She also got the first confessional of the season and two confessionals prior to the commercial break. In addition, even though she's been a boot target, we've received complexity and insight on her situation. Cons: Her first episode sucked ass. I mean, she got owned by Tyson on the heels of that first episode and then her second confessional had her questioning why she was out there in the first place, which seems unbecoming of a winner. Plus, her entire story seems linked to Tyson and Coach, which is never very good. 3. Brendan Pros: He has the screentime and some of the complexity, plus he's not being shoved down our throats like Marcus was as the perfect player. He does have editting doubt because his tribe has viewed him as a threat ever since everyone liked him more than Coach. Also, I firmly believe that the winner comes from the Exile Alliance which he's a founding member of, yet he's nowhere near as visible as the other founding member, Taj. Cons: Extremely weak first episode that basically set up his and Coach's relationship followed by two high-visibility episodes, even if they were part of the story, still doesn't bode well for him after Cirie. 2. Stephen Pros: And extremely crafted edit and he's also the only member of the Exile Alliance to really show doubt in the alliance's strength. He gets insight in every episode and all connections between Jalapao and Timbira seem to hinge on him and his abilities. In addition, he had an opening confessional which was hardly necessary to be shown, and like Erinn, a second confessional before the commercial break. Plus, he's the only player to have been shown playing complexly on his tribe, with his alliance with JT in episode 2. Cons: First off, Jalapao is NOT the complex tribe. They've been to three tribal councils and it's like each of their stories is focused on THAT episode, rather than a long-term arc. Second, Stephen's episode one, like Erinn's, was pretty shoddy. I mean, for someone who went to tribal council and then had a blindside vote, you'd think the editors could've thrown Stephen in there a LITTLE bit more. In addition, there have been three tribal councils with no-so-obvious boots and apparently Stephen had a hand in several of them, yet we barely got anything from him about them. And finally, he's not being editted as the type of person who wins Survivor, so much as the person who follows the winner of Survivor. Sandy's opening confessional HASN'T been completely contradicted yet, and his confessional about falling ass-backwards into the alliance is accurate, because we have no idea why Taj picked him over anyone else. 1. Sierra Pros: Episode 1, she got an opening confessional, and while everyone else tied their stories to another person, she was the only one to show insight and self-awareness about her situation. She was given a great edit in episode 1 and if the person voted out on day 1 were to go on to win, how would the editors change what they've done. When Sierra was in the spotlight, the editors focused on her, but not overly so. When she wasn't, she still received very manipulated focus as she worked her way up the ladder in the game. Interesting to note is the fact that Sierra is constantly shown reinforcing the fact that she, not Brendan, started their alliance. I mean, with the way women are typically editted, Sierra could easily have been cast aside to make room for Brendan's story, but instead, we're reminded that she was the real mastermind. Plus, Sierra's NOT interesting. I mean, Stephen is goofy, Brendan is a powerful alpha male, and Erinn is snarky and a rival to Coach/Tyson. Sierra has no reason to receive the focus she's getting, when she could just as easily be the Debbie to Brendan's Coach. Cons: Recently, she's been shown as getting cocky and perhaps peaking too quickly, which is reasonable and could set up that the Exile Alliance doesn't succeed, but it could also just be doubt. So overall, my thoughts are that Sierra has, hands down, the best edit. She's got the fewest flaws, if any real flaws at all, and there's really nothing to keep me from leaving her at the top of my list for the fifth straight week. |
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Katy Carney |
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Posts: 4935 (03/14/09 11:42 AM) |
I could see a Tyson win before I could see a Brendan win.
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wallduck |
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Posts: 512 (03/14/09 11:53 AM) Registered User |
it's more of "Erinn is one of the top three winners edgically" clubI would put her tied for third, so I'm not currently eligible. But that may change after the next episode, because I'm just not feeling it for Brendan. For now, I'll remain a member of the "Erinn go braghless" club. |
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Jedijake |
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Posts: 5532 (03/14/09 12:09 PM) MESS member |
KittyPryde:BINGO!!! If we should have discounted Cirie in Micronesia from her first episode, then we should not be so quick to say Stephen is the chosen one for the same reason. On the list? Yes. Number one? Well it's a matter of opinion of course, but I say no way for what KP so eloquently said above. Three TC's for his tribe and very little complexity in the actual boots. NO inner conflict with the votes whatsoever. The only inner conflict he has had is wondering how secure the EA is. He's a sideliner who happens to have been brought into the EA by Taj but WHY? |
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chaperone |
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Posts: 2617 (03/14/09 12:27 PM) Registered User |
As far as I'm concerned it's Stephen or Sierra. I can't eliminate JT or Brendan, but I don't buy that Erinn or Tyson is edgically viable.
Erinn - Boo hoo I hate coach and am grumpy and tired. That's my storyline. Tyson - Hey look at me I'm the class clown, I think coach is dumb, I want to see Erinn cry, and (to his sole edgic credit--) I think Brendan's got an alliance with the other tribe. That's my storyline. Neither Timbira nor Jalapao have complex tribes...both have relationships revealed, neither has alliances with dangling loose ends. I say the winner is coming from the EA, and Taj is too the too-visibile focus to be the winner. That leaves Sierra, Brendan, and Stephen in my book. We see Brendan, and Taj (and to a lesser degree Sierra) all yippee yippee happy go lucky about the EA, and Stephen is the only one with any sort of hesitation. We question which way he will go. (That could even be JT's inroad into the winner's story) That only dangling loose ends that are setup for us at this poitn -- in the entire game -- are whether and how Stephen and Sierra will do this whole EA. |
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SJHalle |
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Posts: 48 (03/14/09 12:30 PM) |
Here's my chart through last Thursday's episode. I will explain my ratings soon. :)
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Kathy Fan 2 |
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Posts: 4877 (03/14/09 1:07 PM) Registered user |
As a bystander and resident lurker of Spec., can I just say I think people are putting WAY too much stock into Sierra's episode one? I know it is tradition
to use the first episode as a strong point for the overall season - but this season is just so different theme-wise.
There was a huge twist in the game that prevented Sierra from having a crappy episode 1 regardless of where she places. They HAD to show all of those
confessionals from Sierra. They HAD to show her making the camp - because that's what she chose to do. They HAD to show her confessionals about being an
underdog and changing the perceptions about her. Her episode wasn't 'crafted' in episode 1, it just...was.
Edgically I'd agree she is still the best (if not the most obvious) choice for a winner, but I don't agree with her having a stellar first episode.
Sandy got just as much attention and look where she placed.
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9RedWing19 |
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Posts: 2478 (03/14/09 1:08 PM) Registered User |
Kitty Pryde1 wrote:Agreeance. It's a sad but true commentary - the gender bias in Survivor editing. We had Susie come within one vote of winning S17, and received a terrible edit in the circumstances. We've only had one male low visibility F4 contestant (Butch) versus Darrah, Jenn, Lydia (?), Becky, Sundra, Cassandra, Natalie, and Susie. Sierra is not "good TV" unlike Taj, Sandy or Benjamin, and if her story was not important she would be getting Sydney/Debbie level screentime. But the editors are crafting her story carefully. For example, in the last episode, the opening part of the sequence when she and Brendan have their chat (ie the shot of the other 4 Timbits going for water and Sierra asking Debbie if she needs any help) could easily have been omitted - by using this footage, it helped reinforce Sierra as crafty (similar to the fire-pit sequence). While her recent edit has been mostly EA, it's these type of inclusions that keep her in contention Edgically. |
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LibrasAbandonedChild1 |
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Posts: 284 (03/14/09 1:15 PM) |
YemaGrl1988 wrote:Me too please! <3 |
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Katy Carney |
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Posts: 4939 (03/14/09 1:19 PM) |
My problem with Sierra is that we don't know anything about Sierra. There's been no investment in Sierra as a person or how she relates to the
other people on her tribe. Beyond "first impressions...boo" and "exile alliance...yay" we haven't been shown anything about her.
It's all situational commentary with her. And she's the least focused on of the EA. Hidden or just the least interesting character? It's hard to
say.
With Erinn it's almost the opposite. We know that she's on the outs, but what we really know is that she's a target for Coach and Tyson and why she's not bonding with her tribe. Not a lot of strategy, unless you count the Jerry boot episode where she tried to highlight his sickness and elected Brendan leader. It's a lot of relationships, not a lot else. But with Stephen we have both, and that's why he's my number one for right now. Because we know how he feels about Taj, Brendan, Sydney and JT. We know his game plan and what he's struggling with (to trust the EA or not, not fitting in, etc). Even though Jalapao itself doesn't have a lot of conflict, Stephen is conflicted. Moreso than Sierra for sure. I just think Stephen's edit is more complete at this early stage. I think the criticism that he hasn't been featured more in the three episodes that Jalapao went to tribal council is a little strange, because Sierra wasn't crucial at all in either of the tc's that Timbira went to, and she was a boot target the first time. |
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augustus713 |
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Posts: 28 (03/14/09 1:31 PM) |
Kathy Fan 2 wrote:You've hit the nail on the head but for the wrong reason. Sierra could have been edited like Sandy, but she wasn't. Sierra was top 3 after the first episode for many people, but Sandy was near the bottom for almost everyone because of how different their edits were despite being thrown in the same situation. Katy Carney wrote:I agree that Stephen is the better candidate right now, but Sierra was CP4 the first time Timbira went to TC so I'd say she was pretty crucial to the story.
Last Edited By: augustus713
03/14/09 1:34 PM.
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Kitty Pryde1 |
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Posts: 9074 (03/14/09 1:36 PM) |
The craft I saw with Sierra came from her opening confessional and the fact that she explained why she was weak, when she could easily have just been
characterized as weak and left it at that. And in response to Katy, we DO know about Sierra. We knew on day 1 WHY she was outcast from her tribe and since
then, we've known that she was the one who appoached Brendan about the alliance, which the editors kep reminding us about. They could easily have cut
something out like they apparently did with Taj and Stephen. That's the biggest problem I have with Stephen is the fact that we have NO idea why Taj
picked him. From what we know about Jalapao, Taj was closer to SANDY than to Stephen. You would think that relationship would've come up BEFORE the
alliance, like Brendan/Sierra's did.
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mahdoo |
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Posts: 122 (03/14/09 1:40 PM) |
gretchensucks wrote: This is an excellent point. Its like the "grain of truth in any stereotype." ETA: sorry, I thought I was on the last page of this thread, I am catching up reading here.
Last Edited By: mahdoo
03/14/09 1:45 PM.
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Jedijake |
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Posts: 5534 (03/14/09 1:43 PM) MESS member |
It's the big question: Is Sierra getting the edit that she's getting because she wins? Or is it that the ironic situations she has been in actually
makes her win?
She got her first episode edit because of what happened to her on day 1. But, at the same time, what happened to her on day one may have caused the cascade of events leading to her win **working hard when others were away-making her stand out as a contributor **picking out the person she could trust from that first "vote" who ended up being pegged as a leader **that person she picked out went to exile island and created a cross-tribal alliance, ** Sierra was sucked into that alliance while also having won graces from her own tribe **causing her to be trusted from both sides of her own tribe as well as key members from the other tribe |
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SFC |
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Posts: 636 (03/14/09 1:49 PM) Registered user |
I really believe as well it is between Stephen and Sierra with Erinn in a distant 3rd. And honestly I think that they will be the Final 3 this season.
Stephen has the JT arc. Assuming JT makes the jury That is one connection he has, although I find it strange that they arent following up on one of the two alliances in Jalapao, the other being Taj/Stephen. I think their story is on hold for a later date, and his being cautious about the Exile Alliance, I dont feel it as helping his chances I think they are setting it up for when he betrays the alliance. I dont dock him many points for Episode 1 due to Sandy and Sierra taking all of the air time, but he did have what was needed to stay in the running. But right now his story seems to not be on winning but focused on other players as well; Taj, the Exile Alliance and JT. Erinn has the Rivalry with Tyson and Coach, so unless she gets Super Cocky and N I expect her to outlast and possibly be the cause of the being voted out. BUt as many have stated that seems to be her story right there. Once they are gone however and I have no idea when that is because they have no long term story points. (But then again neither did Susie) They could leave at the Final 11 or all the way to the End with a Final 3 of Erinn/Tyson/Coach. But she needs another storyline other than beating them to come up to par with S&S. As for Sierra she is still my top pick, but she has lost the majority of her *HUGE GAP* in terms of Edgic. I think she is due for another big episode soon, or Stephen will be #1 for me. Sierra has her story with Brendan, but unlike with Taj, we pretty much see both of them strategizing, not Brendan telling Sierra everything to do like Taj does to Stephen. She had a great episode 1, but that has to be taken with a Grain of Salt due to the twist. So for me my rankings are 1. Sierra 2. Stephen 3. Erinn Everyone else is eliminated |
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