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I'm willing to be alternate Visibility watchdog.
I have much respect for the chart but don't always follow it.

I propose that all close calls on UTR vs INV be resolved in favour of UTR by watchdogs. Since getting an INV is supposed to carry so much negative weight, it should require a clear majority.

Craig's Archive

Opening Night: Case for Sierra (p.9)

I think this season had a very weird opening, because we only had four players getting above a 2 in visibility (Taj did NOT seem like a three). Of those, Carolina's gone, Sandy was an OTT distraction, Ben was contradicted very early and made to look like a dick, and Sierra's the only one with winner potential. So Sierra is my first winner pick because she definitely fits into the first impressions theme and she wasn't FORCED on us by the edit as much as was possible

Yes Kitty! We posted 2 minutes apart and came to the same conclusion.

If Black is the complex tribe, the major characters are Coach and Sierra. And they relate to the same THEME, which is also in the title. Coach is about voting off the weak before they start. That's his gameplan, his idea fixee. Sierra gets defined as weak because she's sick. But she unselfishly chooses to work on the camp rather than seek the idol. She plays well socially, in contrast to Granny on the other team. Granny is a distraction that pimps the theme, but Sierra is the underdog that actually succeeds.

Coach's most N comment is when he dismisses her efforts: "the strong must survive, Sierra is awesome, but she's gotta go." What a great story if twist baby Sierra could defeat Coach in the end. That would justify all the attention for the outcasts in ep.1.

Editing likes to play up the winner being in jeopardy in ep.1. They did it with Chris, they did it with Parvati, they kinda did with Sierra even though she didn't go to TC. There was also a lot of talk about the temperature at the beginning. Sierra also fits with that, having a tenmperature of 102. :)

Theme: First Impressions are Wrong (p.18)

#1 Erinn, "Tall spikey haired model boy. Love him! He just seems like a good guy to have around!"
#2 Tyson, "The young brunette. She just comes across as being kinda being 'the Bitch'."

#3 Stephen, "We have the strung out "Old Lady" and it is sorta encouraging to have her because you know you're not gonna be the first to go."
#4 Sandy, "Tha real tall boy, I think he's like, a geek! I think I should be able to lead him around real easy."

#5 Sierra, "I've been sick. I've got some bad tonsils. /break/ I've been trying to hide it. /break/ so, I don't get voted out."
#6 Coach, "This blond /break/ I have an unfortunate feeling she's gonna crumble."

The First Impression theme will tie into the wuinner somehow.
I think the bias is to show First Impressions Being WRONG.

For Sierra, that would mean proving Coach and her tribe wrong. She's clearly on the road to doing that already. Whether she goes all the way for the win is the question. In her favour is the fact that her and Sandy got a ridiculous amount of airtime, more than the simple requirements of the twist. (Bet we'd have ridiculous ep.1 visibility for Misty as the first exile if she'd won Panama.)

For Erinn, her becoming a great social player would ironically prove Tyson wrong. Usually you wouldn't see a winner being called a bitch right off the bat, but in a season about the wrongness of first impressions? (Especially since Erin came across as a potentially good potential social player in pregame interviews - she doesn't annoy easily, and when she does she can hide it.) Likewise Erinn's comments on the hike - maybe in time the hairdresser turns out to be very much in her element.

For Tyson, the idea that "he is a good guy to have around" is ultimately going to be the reverse of the truth. He''ll be the sneaky asshole who blindsides people and disses them in confessionals. Maybe he boots a naive Erinn and wins? Or maybe Erinn catches on and she becomes the Jenna\Sandra to his RobC\JFP. Time will tell, but I suspect the positive first impression of Tyson probably is a bad sign for him.

Based on this analysis, Stephen would be my #1 pick from Red (behind Sierra, Erinn, and Tyson). Sandy thinks she'll be able to "lead him around real easy." But the NY Jew is a Yale grad, so I bet he's smart and leads others around including her. Stephen also gets to give his impression of JT, would probably means they allign and last awhile. Based on this, a Stephen\JT\Sandy faction is might succeed on Red.

I pretty confident one of Sierra, Erinn, Tyson, or Stephen will win.
Though nobody stands out like Yul or Parvati.