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Elbow injuries to Hamels, Santana leave door open in NL East
By Gerry Fraley - SportingNews Mar 23

CLEARWATER, Fla.-The left elbow has become the joint of the moment in the National League East.

Two of the division's top pitchers-Johan Santana of the New York Mets and Cole Hamels of Philadelphia-have reported tightness in the left elbow this spring. That two scheduled opening-day starters could have arm woes triggered the expected response: near panic.

"They have nothing to worry about," Hamels said after returning from an examination in Philadelphia. "They don't need to jump on the bandwagon of freaking out."

Maybe.

The overriding point is that both Santana and Hamels are difference-makers in the division. If either breaks down, the balance of power in the East dramatically changes. Reworked Atlanta becomes a more viable contender. Washington can still be dismissed, but Florida cannot be shunted aside.

With that in mind, a look at the Spring of the Tight Elbow from several difference perspectives:

Which team should be nervous?

Santana's durability cushioned the original news for the Mets. He has made at least 33 starts and pitched at least 215 innings in five consecutive seasons.

He returned to work after missing some time and showed no ill-effects of the sore elbow. Santana has complained about the pace of pitching coach Dan Warthen's throwing plan.

Warthen, in his first spring as the Mets' pitching coach, favors the "use it or lose it" approach of legendary pitching coach Johnny Sain. Santana did not like the increased throwing load early in camp, suggesting that may have caused his problems.

The Phillies went into spring training knowing they had to treat Hamels with caution. He led the majors in total innings, including the playoffs, with 262 1/3 last season. That represented a 38-percent increase over his previous career high. When a 25-year-old pitcher with a history of injuries has a 38-percent increase in total innings, bad things can happen.

Who is better?

In head-to-head competition, it was no contest last season. Santana won both of his starts against Hamels. In those games, Hamels allowed eight earned runs in 12 innings (owned)

Santana went 2-0 with a 2.97 ERA in five starts against the Phillies. Hamels went 0-2 with a 6.00 ERA in two starts against the Mets and is winless in five starts over the last two years against them.

For the season, Santana went 16-7 with a league-best 2.53 ERA. A terrible bullpen ruined what could have been a bigger season.

When working in a Santana game, Mets relievers had a 3.86 ERA with only six saves in 13 chances. The seven blown saves for Santana tied him with four other pitchers, including Greg Maddux, for the major-league lead in the dubious category.

Hamels went 14-10 with a 3.09 ERA, fifth-best in the NL. Hamels had the advantage of being backed by a good bullpen. Phillies relievers had a 2.89 ERA with six saves in eight chances behind Hamels.

The verdict: Hamels is really good; Santana's even better.

Who means more to his club?

This question could also be phrased as "which club could survive without its ace lefthander?"

The answer is clear-cut: Philadelphia.

The starters behind Hamels in the Phillies' rotation may not be spectacular, but they are good workmen. A year ago, the Phillies were a .576 team (19-14) in Hamels' starts and a .566 team (73-56) in all other games. Hamels pitched well at vital moments, going 10-3 with a 2.61 ERA for starts after a team loss, but the Phillies did not ask him to carry the staff.

It's different with the Mets.

In a telling statement about the club, journeyman righthander Livan Hernandez has the inside track for a spot in the rotation. In 180 innings with Colorado and Minnesota last season, Hernandez had a 6.05 ERA with an opponents' batting average of .342 and a slugging percentage of .520.

Hernandez' candidacy suggests there will again be a drop-off from Santana to the rest of the Mets' rotation again this season. A year ago, the Mets were.647 (22-12) in Santana's starts and .523 (67-61) in all other games.

The Phillies have more to worry about with their ace lefthander. The Mets have more to lose with their ace lefthander. Whose elbow will go first?