Matty Should Side with the Onions

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SurvivorFanGP		#41	[-]
Posts: 9451 (11/09/08 9:24 PM) Registered user Reply Quote More Recent Posts Message Connection Block Invite	Er, I highly doubt Ken/Crystal would target Matty anytime soon. Not until they got out pretty much all of Kota. Kota's a bigger alliance, and thus he'll be targetted earlier by them, since they'd gain a majority more quickly. Fang's "alliance" (given that Randy is with Kota) is smaller, and they'd need his vote longer. Bob/Corinne/Charlie/Randy (assuming they merge next eppy) will only be offering him something because they need his vote, simple as that. Otherwise he was going to be voted out at the drop of a hat if they lost. Not very hard to see. It'd be better to side with the people he's been with the entire time, and the only person he wouldn't have ties to in a Ken/Sugar/Crystal/Susie/Matty alliance is Crystal. Last Edited By: SurvivorFanGP 11/09/08 9:30 PM. Edited 2 times.
James Barber		#42	[-]
Posts: 14543 (11/09/08 9:47 PM) Registered User Reply Quote More Recent Posts Message Connection Block Invite	Er, I highly doubt Ken/Crystal would target Matty anytime soon. Not until they got out pretty much all of Kota. Kota's a bigger alliance, and thus he'll be targetted earlier by them, since they'd gain a majority more quickly. Fang's "alliance" (given that Randy is with Kota) is smaller, and they'd need his vote longer. If Sugar goes back to Fang, then their alliance will be four people, with Matty in the middle, same as Kota. Randy and Corinne are the big targets on Kota. Bob is just there and Charlie heavily relies on his friends. Once Randy and Corinne are gone, I'd be shocked if Ken and Crystal didn't start thinking about taking Matty out while they have a chance. Bob/Corinne/Charlie/Randy (assuming they merge next eppy) will only be offering him something because they need his vote, simple as that. Otherwise he was going to be voted out at the drop of a hat if they lost. Not very hard to see. It'd be better to side with the people he's been with the entire time, and the only person he wouldn't have ties to in a Ken/Sugar/Crystal/Susie/Matty alliance is Crystal. The only ties Matty has to Crystal/Ken is being on the same tribe. He chose Dan/Susie/Matty over them. Then, after the Jacquie vote, he chose Ace and Sugar over them. Now he's worked to turn Sugar against Ken. Matty would have been next to go on Fang, Crystal sees him as mean and evil and Mr. Hyde, and I can't see him getting that out of his head. Either side is going to use him for a vote and have no real use for him. I just think he'd have a better chance with Kota than Fang.
SurvivorFanGP		#43	[-]
Posts: 9452 (11/09/08 9:51 PM) Registered user Reply Quote More Recent Posts Message Connection Block Invite	If Sugar goes back to Fang, then their alliance will be four people, with Matty in the middle, same as Kota. Right, but with Matty comes Sugar, most likely, so siding with Kota is six. Siding with Fang is five, assuming Randy stays with Kota. There's also the Ken/Crystal/Sugar/Matty F4 scene that was pushed subtly, that I think was genuine between them.
James Barber		#44	[-]
Posts: 14545 (11/09/08 9:56 PM) Registered User Reply Quote More Recent Posts Message Connection Block Invite	Unless there's a merge at F9, then one out of CCR, Bob, or Matty/Sugar has to leave next. They pushed an Onions F4 in the early episodes and we saw where that got them. If we see an alliance it's less likely to get to the end.
SPunKeeMonKee		#45	[-]
Posts: 11275 (11/09/08 10:28 PM) Registered User Reply Quote More Recent Posts Message Connection Block Invite	Ken is always thinking 10 steps ahead so I'm sure he knows there's no advantage in keeping your enemies in the game before your allies, especially when the F3 is within reach. He has to know that having an Onion alliance member slip into the finals is suicide.
Will		#46	[-]
Posts: 31610 (11/09/08 10:58 PM) Not a Registered User anymore Reply Quote More Recent Posts Message Connection Block Invite	James Barber wrote: chapera rocks wrote: The one thing I can see questionable about Crystal/Kenny's gameplay is getting rid of GC and Kelly. But even then, it bought them Sugar's loyalty. She doesn't seem very loyal to Ken at the moment. If he's lucky, she won't have anywhere else to go lol what? She told him that Marcus was targeting him when he thought it was Susie going.
colleenlover		#47	[-]
Posts: 8712 (11/09/08 11:06 PM) Registered User Reply Quote More Recent Posts Message Connection Block Invite	I think he meant Sugar being loyal. I think the Matty/Sugar scene is mostly misdirection. Everyone gets that people are lying to them to some degree. But Crystal, Ken, Matty, Sugar surely stayed up figuring out a plan when they thought the merge was coming and deals were made. I still expect it to be a quid pro quo situation for Fang. And they're in a situation where they have to stick together if they have the numbers. Otherwise, they fear they've betrayed the other Fangs, and if there is a Kota on the jury (not Sugar) they most likely get the votes. that's just my hunch and opinion. I know we all differ.
James Barber		#48	[-]
Posts: 14546 (11/09/08 11:45 PM) Registered User Reply Quote More Recent Posts Message Connection Block Invite	SPunKeeMonKee wrote: Ken is always thinking 10 steps ahead so I'm sure he knows there's no advantage in keeping your enemies in the game before your allies, especially when the F3 is within reach. He has to know that having an Onion alliance member slip into the finals is suicide. Ken was in the minority alliance at Fang before the first switch, and then after he got some power, seemed to be blindsided by GC wanting out and by Kelly becoming the #1 target on Fang. Crystal also had to do most of the work to keep Ken in after the second switch. His game has been all over the place, some good and some bad. I can see him taking the risk to get rid of Matty. Or Crystal pushing him and Ken not being able to stop her. Once Corinne and Randy are gone, it's going to be hard to stop people from wanting Matty out. I think the Matty/Sugar scene is mostly misdirection. Everyone gets that people are lying to them to some degree. Sugar seemed devastated by what Matty told her. I don't know if that would have been included just for misdirection. Between that and all these clips we're getting of Ken saying he could win, it seems like he's being set up for something. I think Matty has major doubts about both sides and knows they aren't going to do anything for him. If he can keep Sugar, I can see them flipping back and forth and having a lot of power in the game. If this theme is supposed to be "good" and "evil", then they would have to be a main focus together, since I think Sugar and Matty are the only two this season who have had generally positive edits.
colleenlover		#49	[-]
Posts: 8717 (11/09/08 11:56 PM) Registered User Reply Quote More Recent Posts Message Connection Block Invite	Oh sure, I agree. But misdirection in the sense, that I still think Matty and Sugar are predominantly going to be working with Crystal and Kenny. The music they received was do or die- and their scene was presented differently than her previous run ins with Ace and Ken- underlining this is the real deal. And the theme of the hidden idol with them hints that this duo are able to use it to their benefit while the show makes it seem desperate. I think they will be working with Crystal and Ken but on their toes the whole time and not letting on. I actually think Randy once he sees Marcus gone is going to flip -foreshadowed by his true and tried yellow tribe speech, and Corrine's aside to Charlie to watch Randy with Matty. So maybe Randy is Matty's key. But I don't think it's going to be Corrine or Charlie.
James Barber		#50	[-]
Posts: 14548 (11/10/08 12:06 AM) Registered User Reply Quote More Recent Posts Message Connection Block Invite	I think Matty and Sugar may work with Ken and Crystal at first (if they all make it to the merge), but I think the way they're building up Ken now and Sugar's anger towards Ken suggests this alliance will splinter as soon as possible. I think they're hinting that Sugar and Matty will break out as soon as they can and Ken/Crystal will be on the losing end. I'm not sure about Randy mainly because I can't see Ken and Crystal working with Randy. Randy may flip at this upcoming TC, if Fang loses, because he may feel he has no choice. After that, if they merge, then Crystal would probably want Randy out before someone like Bob or Charlie and Matty would have a hard time refusing. Of course they did have Crystal saying she didn't think they'd get along at the merge, so that may mean they do, who knows. Like when the poker player told Todd he'd never vote for Todd to get the money if Todd voted him out. When he said that I thought he probably would vote for Todd to get the money.
Wild Animal Kingdom		#51	[-]
Posts: 325 (11/10/08 1:30 PM) Registered user Reply Quote More Recent Posts Message Connection Block Invite	Matty needs to stick with K & C. If he has any brains, he should know that Cor, Ran, Bob & Char are jones-ing to vote him out because he is the biggest physical threat in this game right now. Bob almost kicked his butt in the pole challenge and it's fairly obvious that Ken, Crystal, Susie or Sugar are NO physical threat whatsoever in II. Matty having potential to win many IC's does up some of his control in this game. He should know that he is going to ousted as soon as he looses II if B/C/C & R have anything to do with it, so he needs to stick with old Fang as long as he can. He may have had his disagreements with Crystal but she told him she would start over again with him, clean slate. Kenny always seemed to be low on the priority list of voting out on old Fang. hope for his sake, he has some brains along with that brawn. Last Edited By: Wild Animal Kingdom 11/10/08 1:33 PM. Edited 1 times.
James Barber		#52	[-]
Posts: 14558 (11/10/08 5:04 PM) Registered User Reply Quote More Recent Posts Message Connection Block Invite	Bob almost kicked his butt in the pole challenge and it's fairly obvious that Ken, Crystal, Susie or Sugar are NO physical threat whatsoever in II. That's going to be obvious to Ken/Crystal/Susie as well. If they merge in the next episode, then I do think Matty and Sugar will go with Fang. Since Kota will have four, I can see why six would be too much. However, I think if Matty wants to get to the end, then he needs to flip after he votes out a few Kota.
tullfan2		#53	[-]
Posts: 2917 (11/10/08 5:39 PM) Registered User Reply Quote More Recent Posts Message Connection Block Invite	I can see Matty winning most (if not all) of the Individual Immunity Challenges once the merger happens, ala Terry, so he may never be in danger. I see Susie and Crystal as the first 2 booted after the merger happens which should be before the next IC. Then it could get interesting since Kenny would be targeted next. Kenny and Sugar bonded while they were both at Fang so he might be able to convince Sugar to slip him the HII which he would play at the next TC. If the onion group were smart, they would get rid of Kenny immediately after the merger and take care of Susie and Crystal next. Kenny is more dangerous than Crystal and Susie are because of his replationships with Sugar and Matty. Matty could make the Final 3 via the Immunity route. It depends on what type of Immunity challenges they have. If this season is similar to China and they have trivia, puzzles or any that favor the lightest person (like the one Courtney Yates won) then Ken may win some of those and Matty could be in danger. Since Randy and Ken have been featured in recent promos, I'm wondering if they square off against each other in the post-merge like Sandra and Fairplay did in the Pearl Islands.
renegade		#54	[-]
Posts: 70 (11/10/08 9:16 PM) Reply Quote More Recent Posts Message Connection Block Invite	Yep..Matty will definately perform well in individual challenges..if he makes the merge.but he's playing abit too nicely....if he sides with the onions he needs to play dirty, enough of this 'i cant brake a promise" shit, it's a damn game!!
Thailandsurvivor		#55	[-]
Posts: 2816 (11/10/08 10:12 PM) Reply Quote More Recent Posts Message Connection Block Invite	Matty has zero reason to join the onions unless he wants to replace Susie as the 6th wheel.
craig		#56	[-]
Posts: 14277 (11/11/08 2:49 AM) Registered User Reply Quote More Recent Posts Message Connection Block Invite	The discussion shows that matty is in danger of being a target at F6 if he simply sticks with either side. This is as hard a decision as Burton and Jonathan faced at the merge. Burton was physically strongest and had to flip to break both alliances, but eventually still became a target. Jonathan ended up going with the group he felt more socially comfortable with rather than his best strategic option, and paid the price. I bet Matty will feel more at home with Randy and Kota than with Crystal, so if the decision is a toss-up otherwise and he is allowed to protect Ken, he will side with Onions. Matty fits with the physically strong and hard working alliance, more than with the weak who want to target the strong. If he sides with KCS, he will stand out as a Tall Poppy much sooner and be more likely to be cut down. Also I doubt he gets any gratitude from KCS, because they'll feel Entitled to his vote just because he's Fang. But Randy and the Onions will be grateful, as well as focused on eliminating players they don't like or who betrayed them.
craig		#57	[-]
Posts: 14302 (11/14/08 3:50 PM) Registered User Reply Quote More Recent Posts Message Connection Block Invite	I guess I was one step ahead of the Onions, because I never thought they could get Sugar without Matty. He's the only one she trusts now.She was gushing about how much he "deserved" to win the reward. When I saw the Onions exclusively working Sugar, when I saw that Charlie (UTR edgic elim) was the target, I knew Fang was winning the vote. In next week in the previews, Randy makes the case to Matty that I was making here. Until thern, there isn't much more to say.
SwineForkbeard		#58	[-]
Posts: 1867 (11/14/08 4:59 PM) Registered user Reply Quote More Recent Posts Message Connection Block Invite	Randy is probably right, but Matty knows he's desperate and will say anything to get Matty's vote, so I'm not sure he'll listen. I don't think this is the right time for Matty and Sugar to flip, since they'd probably get the same deal with the 3 remaining onion members. If I were them, I'd get rid of Corinne first, since they both hate her.
craig		#59	[-]
Posts: 14304 (11/14/08 5:30 PM) Registered User Reply Quote More Recent Posts Message Connection Block Invite	Corinne is Randy's best remaining friend, and there is no evidence that Matty or Ken especially dislike her. I doubt if Sugar or Susie will make the next boot decision. Bob appears a bigger comp threat and jury threat, and that fake idol could backfire and make him a target. I bet either there will be a powershift of some sort next episode, or Bob goes. Last Edited By: craig 11/14/08 5:57 PM. Edited 1 times.
Thailandsurvivor		#60	[-]
Posts: 3017 (11/14/08 5:40 PM) Reply Quote More Recent Posts Message Connection Block Invite	All I have to stay to this thread is

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Matty Should Side with the Onions

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