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S17 - Episode 2 - Story Arcs

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I LUV TIJUANA		#61	[-]
Posts: 11573 (09/29/08 11:55 PM) Registered user More Recent Posts Message Connection Block Invite	I think it is alright to post there. Interesting analysis, but I really don't see it myself. :)
Die Apokalyptischen Reiter		#62	[-]
Posts: 659 (09/30/08 5:33 AM) More Recent Posts Message Connection Block Invite	Kirblar wrote: Prefacing this- This is pretty much pure spec- going by editing, Probst's comments, and a tiny, tiny hint from a MySpace page. I believe there's one person edited in a way that doesn't make sense given the episode. And it's not Marcus/Charlie. They're obviously important to the story. But they feel like misdirection, the "Hey, look, it's Aras/Yul/Earl/Todd II." That person is Randy. I believe he wins. And here comes the rambling analysis. The pre-credits segment contains nothing but platitudes. Nothing to see here. Yes, Marcus has a confessional. But it's fluff. No one's got a "I'm gonna win" confessional here except Crystal, who's "Early Merge Boot Walking". Credits- There are 3 people from Fang out of order in the intro. Gillian, Michelle, and Randy. Two of them were voted out. One was not. Post-credits introduction. This is where the interesting editing starts. We have 4 players who have confessionals attatched to their name and occupation. Ken- Hi, I'm Ken. I'm going to win because I'm a gamer. Crystal-Hi, I'm Crystal. I'm going to hide my Olympic Background. (I gave my run to victory speech prior to the credits.) Corrine- I'm gonna win cause I'm a bitch! Randy- I do wedding videos but I don't want to get married. I'm negative. One of these 4 things is not like the other. Everyone else lays out a gamplan. Randy, on the other hand, introduces himself. Also, note. Marcus's profession is never mentioned in confessional. Only in his graphic. Pickem-only real focus is on Charlie and it's immediately negative. Randy was "negative" in a Rudy way. This is negative in a gross way. Kota tribe-really nothing here. Marcus again, has a confessional but it's just fluff narration. And Bob is great, but doomed (barring the other contestants having a Survivor death wish.) Fang tribe- Randy given the first insight that Gillian's a big problem. (AKA Randy is Smart.) Then Ken/Michelle- where it's just something cute to provide a distraction for Michelle's boot and establish Ken's character. Kota tribe- Ace is overconfident. Charlie is obsessed with Marcus. Marcus is aware and wants to use it. Overnight at Fang- Randy's head wound- which of course needs to be shown to explain the focus. But the narrative focus is that Randy is worried it'll take him out of the game. Fang Morning- Randy's feeling better, Michelle's miserable, and Fang is tribe "Freaks and Geeks" Kota Morning- Ace is ridiculous. Paloma is not taking part in group activities. Post-IC Fang- Randy states "No one wants to be leader" GC-I have immunity-also, no leader. Randy- "Why are we voting off Michelle instead of Gillian?" TC-Michelle gone. Note, though- there was no discussion of Randy, with his gaping head wound, whatsoever. Ep2- I'm gonna summarize this caues I don't think the other method really gets the point across. We get 2 strategies. Marcus' Onion, with him/Charlie at the core. And Randy's "Let them self-destruct." With a shot of Randy laughing as they all work around camp. Theres' a firm pecking order established at Kota. Marcus/Charlier-Corrine-Jacquie-Bob. The traditional gameplan. Randy is also one of the guys who helps catch the fish at Kota. When Fang goes nutso over possibly booting Dan, who do we see as the one reigning them in? Randy. The boot is Gillian, confirming that once again, Randy was right and that she should have gone first. Also, he is never mentioned as a boot possibility the entire episode. Other stuff- There's a Good v Evil theme later on, mentioned by Probst. Randy's MySpace mood is "Evil" Randy, though, is being shown not as "evil", but as smart, resilient, mercenary, and useful around camp, That's an awful lot of characteristics to dump onto one person in one episode. Everyone else is fairly one-dimensional. Randy may be "evil", but he's not malicious, like Charlie. It could be that he doesn't win. Sure, it could be the predictable Marcus. But I don't think it will be. This appears to be a flip-flop season alliance-wise. Guys like Marcus don't do all that well in those type of seasons. Well-laid alliances and con-man onion alliances are awesome when there's no swap and a merge at 10. But this season likely has a swap at 15 or 14 and a merge at 12 or 11. Bad for a guy like Marcus. Good for a guy like Randy. If this were an F2 season, Randy would likely be our 3rd place finisher. But it's not. The F3 was only abandoned in Micronesia because of the injuries. (Look at the filming timeline, it doesn't make sense any other way.) It's going to be back this season, and our "Good" v "Evil" showdown may take extend all the way to the finals of the game. This is shaping up to be Randy's story- win or lose. But I strongly suspect he wins this thing, as a Kota supermajority implodes on itself post-merge. Nice catch, Kirblar. Randy's edit could be the winner's edit, in oppositon to Marcus's Obvious, Alpha Male Edit. Right now, it would seem Gabon is the story of two strategies. But who will prevail? Randy, the guy who waits and sees everyone destroy each other? Or Marcus, the Alpha Male who uses a gay guy to get to the top? It could explain why Probst doesn't like Marcus. Charlie replaced him as Marcus's minion. Marcus won't win? Last Edited By: Die Apokalyptischen Reiter 09/30/08 5:36 AM. Edited 1 times.
Poopert	Randy	#63	[-]
Posts: 16 (09/30/08 6:38 AM) Registered User More Recent Posts Message Connection Block Invite	I like this, Kirblar. Even if it turns out not to be true... it's cool to at least ponder. soooo, if we are sticking with this good vs. evil thing... the Marcus, Charlie, Ace tribe would be evil? Randy... good? If the final three is Charlie, Marcus & Randy... I could definitely see how Randy wins. definitely a huge underdog next to the powerhouse alliance. he wouldn't necessarily be considered a physical threat after a merge. maybe he sticks around long enough to be brought in as an easy 3rd place choice, but it ends up backfiring against the pretty boys? that'd be amazing. nice analysis, sir.
birdlady		#64	[-]
Posts: 1474 (09/30/08 7:27 AM) Registered user More Recent Posts Message Connection Block Invite	The way Probst was talking preshow, I had counted Randy totally out, but watching last week, yeah, he's in there. He does seem like a loner, but he's putting on that curmudgeon persona. I still can't figure Probst's comments if he wins - there was something in his commentary this week about "Randy is mean as an alley cat". We sure weren't seeing anything like that! If it comes down to a contest between a buff, straight ahead young man (surrounded by beautiful yet evil women), and a twisted but strangely lovable middle-aged man (surrounded by good yet conventionally unattractive women), wouldn't that be a good story? Randy was "negative" in a Rudy way... Randy is Smart. Yeah, Smart Rudy was the vibe I was getting, but I'm thinking he is our narrator, not our winner.
Coachocd		#65	[-]
Posts: 7191 (09/30/08 12:03 PM) MESS member More Recent Posts Message Connection Block Invite	I'm not sure Randy is in the game for the long haul. Even if he was only in for the short haul, they'd still show him because he's an interesting character. I hope he's in the long haul and I wish they had shown his "dog" monologue from insider on the main show. It would have humanized and rounded him out. He does have the best overall strategy that he could pick. If you are on a tribe of losers and you are headed down, you might as well sit back and stay under the radar, hope to make the merge and then hope as a free agent, you can find a new alliance.
Kirblar		#66	[-]
Posts: 6545 (09/30/08 12:09 PM) Registered user More Recent Posts Message Connection Block Invite	If he was going early, they would have focused on his negatives. If he were a swap victim, he likely wouldn't get the insane level of detail in the editing he's gotten. It's not just that he's gotten a lot of face time. It's all of the little things that they link to Randy throughout the two episodes. Every storyline at Fang is tied to him. And next week's preview is "Is Randy in trouble?", when with what we've seen so far, GC is likely to be the guy with a problem after that confrontation.
crocophile		#67	[-]
Posts: 10037 (09/30/08 12:24 PM) MESS Moderator More Recent Posts Message Connection Block Invite	I think coach hits this nail on the head. He is an interesting personality and he's doing a great job narrating a sinking ship. I don't think Randy goes until after Susie and Dan at least, maybe more. CG? He's a HORRIBLE leader, but he is in alliance now, and apparently got to know several of the Kotas well enough to be my.space friends - for whatever that means.
Kirblar		#68	[-]
Posts: 6548 (09/30/08 12:38 PM) Registered user More Recent Posts Message Connection Block Invite	What alliance? The Kota MySpace thing combined with the early negative facetime is what leads me to think he's out sooner than later. He's the only boot on Fang they've set up who's still in the game.
crocophile		#69	[-]
Posts: 10038 (09/30/08 1:08 PM) MESS Moderator More Recent Posts Message Connection Block Invite	GC, Kenny and Crystal (and later Crystal and Matty) were discussing who to boot (Gillian or Dan). I don't think this is a strong alliance, but they were shown them discussing it and coming to their consensus. Randy and Susie weren't part of that and that is very possibly an important omission. Randy is being cast as an outsider, albeit an interesting one.
Kirblar		#70	[-]
Posts: 6553 (09/30/08 1:13 PM) Registered user More Recent Posts Message Connection Block Invite	Randy/Dan are apparently teamed up, with Matt/Crystal/GC/Ken kinda a loose foursome and Susie out on her own. Kota losing the next two ICs, followed by a swap, seems to be a possible scenario.
tullfan2		#71	[-]
Posts: 2829 (09/30/08 4:59 PM) Registered User More Recent Posts Message Connection Block Invite	Possibly Corinne is a key player this season. In episode 1, she introduces herself as a bitch but we haven't seen it yet as she has started off being in the background in the first few episodes. This is reminiscent of Fairplay's edit in Pearl Islands. He was a background character in the first few episodes but did introduce himself as Jonny Fairplay who doesn't play fair in the first episode. Of course, Jonny became the major villain of that season. It's very possible that Corinne will become the major villainess of this season, If there is anyone on Kota who will cause the Kota alliance to crumble by initiating a power shift, it would be her (perhaps along with Charlie). If Randy makes it to the merger and Kota holds a large majority, he is likely to be seen as the weakest of the remaining Fang and is likely to be the last Fang left barring someone like Matty winning a lot of Immunity Challenges. That would likely allow Randy to be involved in a power shift if one occurs. I've noticed some similarities between Randy's edit with that of Chris from Vanuatu with a major difference being that Chris was a big target in the first episode. Both are on tribes that were or will be outnumbered at the merger. Odds are though is that Marcus wins. Lately (meaning the last 4 seasons), contestants that are shown laying out their strategy and game moves (onion layers approach to making alliances) to the viewers end up winning. So far, Marcus is the total package. He is bright, likeable and physically fit but also described as innocent and benign in the Insider clips. So there is a chance that he is blind sided late in the season if he ever loses an Immunity Challenge. If theire is a power shift and Randy is in the Final 3 with two betrayors then Randy can win. Then again, Randy may just be the Brian Corridan of this season. Last Edited By: tullfan2 09/30/08 5:01 PM. Edited 1 times.
I LUV TIJUANA		#72	[-]
Posts: 11578 (09/30/08 5:45 PM) Registered user More Recent Posts Message Connection Block Invite	Kirblar wrote: Randy/Dan are apparently teamed up, with Matt/Crystal/GC/Ken kinda a loose foursome and Susie out on her own. Kota losing the next two ICs, followed by a swap, seems to be a possible scenario. You think Paloma and Kelly or Paloma and Ace are out?
craig		#73	[-]
Posts: 14080 (09/30/08 7:35 PM) Registered User More Recent Posts Message Connection Block Invite	If anyone on Fang wins, it will be Randy (Ken a distant 2nd) Marcus, Charlie, and Corinne are the 3 only Kota visible and strategizing enough be be edgically viable Fang's edit was relentlessly negative. It sided with Randy and Michelle's assessment of the tribe. Thus, it's bumbling wannbe leaders like Crystal, GC, and Dan have no shot. But Randy might. Randy's top MS friends are Charlie and Corinne. And Corinne was first to comment on both Charlie and Randy's pages. Looks like Randy could last and join the Onion at the switch. Randy and Charlie are Survivor fans, and he and Corinne might appreciate each other's bitchy worldview. They would be a great "evil alliance" that many would hate and many would love. Last Edited By: craig 10/01/08 6:37 AM. Edited 1 times.
crocophile		#74	[-]
Posts: 10040 (10/01/08 3:00 AM) MESS Moderator More Recent Posts Message Connection Block Invite	Poopert wrote: sorry... forgive me, another thought. i feel like Randy is being painted like another Penner. we haven't seen it yet, but i'd wager he ticks the others off in a similar way. hopefully he's smarter... we shall see. He's got Pygmy Island polarized. One of the mods has been deleting his posts (would a long-timer post so openly?), but not before several have been copied elsewhere. He can be very caustic...and somewhat funny if you aren't at the other end.
birdlady		#75	[-]
Posts: 1480 (10/01/08 7:47 AM) Registered user More Recent Posts Message Connection Block Invite	Does he seem like he can control it? Like, we saw him being pretty mild-mannered, if not actually very constructive, with GC about cooking the rice in drinking water. If he can think humorous nasty thoughts in his head but not let them come out his mouth, he should be ok.
Coachocd		#76	[-]
Posts: 7195 (10/01/08 9:29 AM) MESS member More Recent Posts Message Connection Block Invite	Remember, Jeff-S2, Robfather-S4, ShiiAnn-S5 and Angie-S10 all had lots of screen time and confessionals during these seasons and they all went pre-jury. I would like Randy to go far, but I just don't see it based on story arcs alone... yet. On a good sign for him, he's one of the only Fangs who we have seen discuss strategy for the road ahead as opposed to just getting through a TC. From the TV Guide Preview: Randy - "Tens of thousands of dollars of therapy have made me realize it is safer to keep my distance." -------------------- Interesting note: I am finally getting around to watching the TV Guide Gabon preview, which is early in the game before JP knows the winner. He comes out and says "Marcus won't win". Probst will probably say something about that if Marcus does. If the Good versus evil thing plays out, what about Jacquie vs. Corrine in the finals? ------------ Probst did say for every minute that is aired, 300 minutes is shot and all if it has to be watched and logged. Wow. Last Edited By: Coachocd 10/01/08 3:07 PM. Edited 3 times.
catfishbarb		#77	[-]
Posts: 493 (10/01/08 4:29 PM) MESS member More Recent Posts Message Connection Block Invite	birdlady wrote: Does he seem like he can control it? Like, we saw him being pretty mild-mannered, if not actually very constructive, with GC about cooking the rice in drinking water. If he can think humorous nasty thoughts in his head but not let them come out his mouth, he should be ok. If he is a wedding photographer and hates wedding's he probably does that all the time.
Orangeena	The Wedding Photographer Who Hates Weddings	#78	[-]
Posts: 1311 (10/01/08 6:47 PM) Registered User More Recent Posts Message Connection Block Invite	The Wedding Photographer Who Hates Weddings. I like that as a title of something. He got a very complex, detailed edit, I thought also. Like he's in it for the long haul. He gets switched and the switch helps/saves him? He's MSing with Corrine And Charlie. I think that means he becomes part of the Onion Alliance. Replacing Bob and/Jaquie.And he's got Charlie there and not Marcus...Hmmm... I still think this points to a Marcus win. Everytime someone surfaces during the show on the boards or the net, it means they DON'T WIN. Like last season, with Cerie. That was the one thing that made me go WHOOPS! She's posting. Trying to justify herself after the super-popular Yau-Man's boot in Ep.2. Also, did Parvati appear anywhere before she won? NO! If Marcus pops up posting on the Internet himself, means he's not the winner...But I do think Randy Randy is in it for the long haul. And he's the Evil, clearly, if he's self-identifying himself that way as "Evil"on MySpace or wherever it was...I mean, please... So it's gonna be the good Dr. Marcus Welby M.D. vs. the evil Wedding Photographer...Sounds promising... Jeff in is EW Survivor blog, which is a MUST read, says that Marcus was irritating and arrogant. He's clearly the new Colby. And of course, Colby didn't win. He HANDED the million to Tina. Who, of course, was eternally grateful to him, as well she should be. Charlie could in the end game hand the $ to Marcus. And Marcus would open a hospital with it. Or at least a wing....Or at least a ward...Batman and Robin. That's how I see them at this point... Also, does anyone know if the Vice-Presdential debates are pre-empting Survivor?????
Jedijake		#79	[-]
Posts: 5274 (10/01/08 7:26 PM) MESS member More Recent Posts Message Connection Block Invite	I was about to ask the same question.
I LUV TIJUANA		#80	[-]
Posts: 11590 (10/01/08 7:50 PM) Registered user More Recent Posts Message Connection Block Invite	I'm pretty sure the VP debate is at 9.

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S17 - Episode 2 - Story Arcs