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S17 - Episode 2 - Story Arcs

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crocophile		#21	[-]
Posts: 10029 (09/27/08 2:13 PM) MESS Moderator More Recent Posts Message Connection Block Invite	They all assumed he would find the hii, but he never got across the lake Que we suspect Sugar goes to EI this week. I would not be shocked if she does make the trek across and find it. Jeff said in his blog it wasn't too hard to find (a give away someone finds it soon), but Dan over analyzed it. Sugar seems bright enough, practical, and not prone to over analyzing.
Kirblar		#22	[-]
Posts: 6533 (09/27/08 3:45 PM) Registered user More Recent Posts Message Connection Block Invite	The past few seasons have shown the winner of those seasons (Earl, Todd, Parvati) as the only contestant to rationally map out and explain their overall game plan and approach to the viewers by way of confessionals. Marcus is the only contestant doing that so far so if the same editing pattern holds he should win. False. He's not the only one with a clear gameplan.
tullfan2		#23	[-]
Posts: 2827 (09/27/08 4:04 PM) Registered User More Recent Posts Message Connection Block Invite	Kirblar wrote: The past few seasons have shown the winner of those seasons (Earl, Todd, Parvati) as the only contestant to rationally map out and explain their overall game plan and approach to the viewers by way of confessionals. Marcus is the only contestant doing that so far so if the same editing pattern holds he should win. False. He's not the only one with a clear gameplan. Well, after 2 episodes, there haven't been many other contestants who have shown much in the way of game play yet. Charlie is in a tight alliance with Marcus but we see him being infatuated wih Marcus whereas Marcus calmly explains his onion layers approach to forming alliances. Unless this is being shown in contrast to Charlie turning on Marcus much later in the game, it's not a good sign for Charlie. Randy is the only strategist at Fang but he is on a weak tribe and after 2 episodes we haven't been shown that he has made any alliances. His edit is more similar to Rob Cesternino who did not win.
Jedijake		#24	[-]
Posts: 5267 (09/27/08 6:09 PM) MESS member More Recent Posts Message Connection Block Invite	Maybe I can finally say that I've seen too many Survivor seasons. It almost plays out like a storybook these days. That's pretty much been the case for the past 5, 6, maybe even 7 seasons. Broken record? Maybe. Heck, one can probably assume there are certain stories that lead to the end and certain ones that don't. This season actually reminds me a LOT of China. I thin we can almost predict who goes early and who makes it far. These people, just from the first two episodes, pretty much have their fate sealed pre-merge: Ken (weak, by himself) GC (already being portrayed as the one who let the leadership role go and takes rests) Sugar (there's animals-it's scary-ouch) Susie (nobody) Throw in a couple of invisible people for good measure. There are always a few invisible ghosts that leave early. Kelly? Paloma? The following people seem to have a mark on them and have "mid game" written all over their faces. They will either leave before the merge or right after it. They have stories, but these stories spell their own doom. Ace (will be taken down by the "Onion Alliance"-seems to be the victim of a blindside) Randy (will grate more and more on people's nerves til they ALL hate him-reminds me of Roger from Amazon) Dan(Brady or Aaron redux-a threat that needs to leave before it's too late) That leaves 9 people. (1) The "Onion Alliance" ( Marcus, Corinne, Jaquie, Charlie) (2) Bill Nye, the science guy (3) The last two members of the loser tribe (Crystal and Matty) Interesting how this seems to play out. I can't imagine ANYONE other than Crystal and Matty making it further. They are the two most likeable members of their tribe who are also not having trouble out there. They both have ample enough stories and/or airtime from the 2-hours special to stand out from their tribe. The Onions will like them the best, but they won't go past the final 6. From the final 5, I can't decide who I would place higher: Bob or Jacque. That's probably because we haven't seen Jacque yet. I gather she will be one of those who will have a story develop later and make us all say "ooh, ahh, she's cool and could win" but way too late. Bob, on the other hand will be everyone's favorite every second of the season. He would NOT have been mentioned as a 5th member of the Onion alliance unless he lasts. The there's the three most obvious stories: Marcus, Corinne, and Charlie. It'll be interesting to see of Corinne will be the bitch that she claims and toss the others to the side. Her problem is that in doing so, she'd have to contend with Bob, the one everyone will adore. Corinne is probably screwed. Charlie, the Todd Wanna be, is not as bright as Todd was. Part of me says that, yes, it's that easy and Marcus wins. Part of me however says that it's meant to be too easy. It's going to be extremely hard to tell the difference because Marcus is in this for the long haul with both Charlie and Corinne.
Coachocd		#25	[-]
Posts: 7174 (09/27/08 6:21 PM) MESS member More Recent Posts Message Connection Block Invite	It's going to be hard to top last season. Last season had the best final four since the glory days of S1 & S2. All four of those women engaged in major power moves to get to the top. I would have been happy with any of them winning. At first glance, this looks like an obviously lopsided season. However, those seasons aren't all bad. S10 was actually a good season. The hi-def looks spectacular. I kept going "ooh, look at that." We've been shown the pivotal alliance right away and some interesting people. Sometimes the early alliance lasts and sometimes it doesn't. It seems to last well on a tribe that functions well (as there are fewer trips to Tribal Council and less reason to upset the apple cart.) We'll see how it goes. KOTA: The obviously "stronger tribe" to start with. Whether they'll be Koror, Kucha or Sook Jai remains to be seen. We've been shown the initial power 4 Marcus and Charlie, plus Jacqie and Corrine, with Bob on the Perimeter. I like the name "Onion Alliance" -- something different. Remember when having an alliance at all was seen as somehow "evil" or "unfair" in S1 by the naive? Now it is an indespensible part of the game. ACE: Well, the "full package" is a little full of himself. His danger is thinking he has it under control and focusing so much on himself, he isn't aware of what the others are doing. His type is rather easily blindsided. He picked a "model" for the tribe instead of strength. If he's not in the majority alliance and he realizes it, I imagine he will fight to stay in the game. So far he reminds me of one of those guys who's so hot they cannot believe they came up to talk to you in the bar, but once they open their mouths and start talking the fantasy is gone. I do find him lovely to look at, so hopefully he'll stay for a few episodes. I have a very soft spot for the bald guys being one myself. Nice butt, if that matters to anyone but me. BOB: What a likeable character -- everyone's favorite physics teacher with bow tie. Sometimes the eldest guy goes far like Rudy and Paschal and some times they get booted early like Jim and Willard. Bob did himself well by jumping onto the roof. If he gets offered that fifth spot in the "Onion alliance", he should take it. He needs to get to the merge until he's no longer seen as a physical liability. He's probably bought himself enough time to get past the first Kota boot (assuming there will actually be pre-merge Kota boots having seen Fang's utter dysfunction.) CHARLIE: Well, he's definitely more "Todd" than "Rich", but he's a smart guy. His job as management consultant is similar to Rich's job. He may not be the butchest guy in the game, but his profession tells me that he knows how to organize people and he will recognize the politics right away. Showmance is a terrible strategy. It only worked for Romber (blech!) and it really doesn't work otherwise. If Charlie gets distracted by Marcus and it throws off his game, tough luck for Charlie. But, I think Charlie knows what he's doing game wise. So stay focused. CORRINE: Well, we've been warned. She's going to be a bitch. However, at least she knows that about herself. It's not exactly great strategy, but she's at least self-aware. And, she's sufficiently ruthless to win the game. At least she can count to 9 and realizes, unlike the Rotu 4, that five is a majority of nine. JACQUIE: For whatever reason, Marcus picked her as part of the onion alliance, probably because he likes her. Whatever. At this stage, you don't know anyone really anyway. Probably one of Marcus' showmances. KELLY: I've got nothing. Two episodes and nothing. However, Natalie didn't have a confessional for five episodes and when she surfaced she turned out to be a power player. Under the radar for the moment. MARCUS: He seems like a cool guy. He got the best confessionals. The politics will revolve around him. If he were to use attraction and sex appeal to get ahead, that's fine. It's only a problem if you get caught prior to the jury vote. I'm glad to see someone like Marcus have a respectful attitude to Charlie. We've come a long way in a short period of time. It was a "power move" to grab the idol first. Will they try to flush it? Well, the closer it gets to merge, the less his strength is needed, so they may try it. But if he can stay dominant, he'll do far. If he makes the merge, he will be a physical threat. PALOMA: We didn't see much of her. However, she sat outside the yoga. Since that is all we saw, does that mean she is a social misfit on Kota? She also sat out of the challenge. Is she seen as the weakest on Kota? SUGAR: Well, she seems perky enough, but has decided she's not into bathing. We all see how well that worked out for Kimmi. --------------------------------- FANG: As soon as I saw Gillian, Crystal and Susie on the same trip, I knew Fang was doomed. Didn't anybody do any advance thinking? The game starts BEFORE you get to the game. Like Rich-S1, everyone should have a strategy from before you get there (which you adapt on a dime). One tactic is "what kind of tribe do I want"? If you choose 3 elder woman, you are setting yourself up to be physically weak if the other tribe gets the lion's share of the strength. People questioned why Caryn picked Willard over stronger Jonathan, but she decided she didn't want to be the eldest one on the tribe. (It was also the only strategic move she made the entire game.) Now, it is possible for the elder or weaker tribe to dominate the end game. Chuay Gahn worked much better together than Sook Jai. However, Fang is not only weaker but utterly dysfunctional. I don't know if it will be as bad as Ulong, but it is an easy guess to assume it will be at least as bad as Mara'amu. One last note. Isnt' it interesting we didn't hear one word about any alliances on Fang other than Kenny's doomed bond with Michelle? Did no one discuss it? We heard discussions about personalities and tribal strength, but no foursome emerged. The thing to do as Tina-S2 suggests when watching the show is pay attention to whom is sitting next to whom. I hate to kick a tribe when it's down. Okay I do. Wouldn't it be great to see an elephant rampage its way through the Fong camp and obliterate it. Face paint didn't work every time for Pagong either. I will say this for them. Kudos for finding a way to fish. That's the kind of plucky spirit they'll need to come back, plus Kota imploding. CRYSTAL: Well, the olympic athlete who couldn't climb the hill. Not a great start. However, she is the strongest of the weak, so she will get past Susie. She needs to shine in a challenge to stay. DAN: Well, "in" the water, really isn't "across" the water. But he did something smart. He dumped open his bag to show he didn't have the idol. That may be what it takes from now on. "You don't want us to flush out the idol, then prove it." I actually thing the hidden idol has taken on too much a role in this game, but whatever. It's in the game, so you have to adapt and adjust to it. Does this mean that everyone on exile is "marked"? Perhaps. Dan's definitely eye-candy. Total "Nick" vibe (both of them). He's cute. His finding himself, I guess. He's probably indespensible for now. He describes himself as "highly emotional". What straight man shaves his armpits? The only men I know who do are Olympic swimmers and professional drag queens. G.C. (Danny): Well, there's "leadership" for you. Maybe the need to do what the women in the Amazon did -- the had a "delegator". When in doubt, rebrand the position. Or take turns being delegator for the day. He's probably safe for the the next few weeks unless Fang is as dumb as the seem to be. KENNY: Number one at video games. He may not be anti-social, but I think he may be a little socially inept. At least his nice socially inept, as opposed to mean socially inept. MATTY: Seems like Aaron or other low key dudes we've had in the past. The desperate need for strength on Fong and his seemingly low key demeanor keeps him safe for awhile. RANDY: I really didn't think I'd be rooting for the curmudgeon, but I am. His strategy is actually right. If the tribe is doomed, then just siting back and letting is self-destruct, but being under the radar enough to make it to the merge and then try and work as a free agent IS the way for him to go. But what a bummer to get a potential game ending injury within 24 hours of the start of the game. We saw infection take two people out last game. His wound seems rather well wrapped though, and he can use his buff and bandages to help keep dirt away. Unfortunately, he probably won't have the luxury of sitting out of a challenge any time soon. But Kudos for the fishing hook. SUSIE: She's just lucky there was somebody older and weaker to boot first. I'd like to see more of her to see if there is smarts there too. I thought Tracy was by far the most underrated player of last season, as much as Ozzy was overrated. I will reserve judgement till I see more. But, just being the next eldest and weakest is going to be a problem. Weaker elder women have gone far in the game, such as MamaKim and Jan, but they are also considered emotional hearts of their tribe and loved personally. We cannot tell if the tribe loves Susie. Of course, we don't know if there are any alliances yet within Fong either. Alliances can be shaken up. Jerri's skank alliance seemed solid until Tina engineered the first alliance overthrough in Survivor history in no small part to her and Colby realizing that if they didn't win challenges, it didn't matter who was more popular, if you were going to only be pagonged. ----------------------- GILLIAN: Did anyone really doubt Gillian would be an early boot once you saw how physically weak the tribe was? It's not always Sonja-esqe weakest link first boot scenarios for older women. Mad Dog survived a TC because she was so loved and Kel was an outcast. I don't think Gillian was loved as much as Michelle was disliked for her attitude. At least she went down trying to find an alternative boot. She was just out of her element. If she had picked a strong male for her tribe to start, it might have given a different dynamic. An elder woman in this game usually needs a tribe that wins challenges to go far. The fewer trips to TC, the less chances to be the boot before the merge. I liked her accent and she had some practical suggestions. I've seen that "elephant dung juice" thing on television before. Gretchen has commented about just how much protein the castaways let slip by because they won't eat it. If an elephant dung termite is what you need, than eat it if you can't find fish. There are insects and other tings. So kudos for eating the termite, which brings us to... MICHELLE: Wow, you really have to be obnoxious for the tribe to choose to keep Gillian over you. Without stating the obvious, she didn't seem to do anything to stay in the game. There are a couple of ways to "weaken" a tribe. One is to suck in challenges. The other is to bring everybody down around you. She kept complaining about her tribe. However, she didn't do anything to stay in the game. Andrew proved that being angry at your lot in the game is wasted energy that doesn't help you adapt and make your next move. You need to play the game you have, not the game you want. "It's hard for me to pretend to like people." Then honey, you weren't meant to play this game. ---------------------------- Once again we saw a tribe boot a social misfit, followed by a physical liability. Sometimes the physical liability goes first. But usually when a social misfit goes first, then a physical liability follows when they realize they needed the social misfit's athleticism on the tribe. Jolonda (S10) probably ranks as the most incompetent first boot in survivor history. Michelle would have been such a drag on the teams morale, she would have weakened it probably as much as Gillian did. Sometimes opening episodes have so much packed into them we really don't get a sense of why the first person was booted (such as Brooke-S9). However, this time it was no doubt. It only took 30 seconds of screen time to tell this story arc. So will Fang get it together in time? Probably not. Chuay Gahn made a giant whopper keeping Ghandia over John. However, the tribe was otherwise still minimally functional and they benefitted from Sook Jai's utter implosion. Kota would have to self-distruct in a major way. And after a swap/twist anything could happen. But if it is the same tribes with no twists? I wouldn't need a spoiler to tell me Koto will have the advantage going into the merge. It was clear to me from the first episode that Earl would be the winner. Based on Marcus' edit, I'd guess he wins. Todd had the best confessional in episode one of China. Marcus is the early favorite to win. The immunity idols were interesting and different. It's certainly nicer than the mircrowaved barbie doll and immunity toilet seat of S3. The show does have generally good art directors. Last Edited By: Coachocd 09/29/08 11:53 PM. Edited 2 times.
Coachocd		#26	[-]
Posts: 7175 (09/27/08 6:38 PM) MESS member More Recent Posts Message Connection Block Invite	craig wrote: The Olympian pickiing Sandra 2.0 was the dumbest move in any Survivor pick-em, EVER. She could have had Marcus, and Susie most likely would have been on Fang anyway as the last pick because nobody else would pick her. I totally agree. It may already be the fumble of the season, as bad as Boron dumping 2/3 of their water right at the start.
birdlady		#27	[-]
Posts: 1450 (09/27/08 6:58 PM) Registered user More Recent Posts Message Connection Block Invite	We've been shown the initial power 4 Marcus and Charlie, plus Jacqie and Corrine, with Bob on the Perimeter. We saw Marcus and Charlie as an inner two. But I think we also saw Corinne and Marcus as a two-some - she was talking about the four-alliance with Charlie and Jacque, but it seemed very possible she saw herself above them on the totem pole. The secret scenes have some Marcus-Jacque, and we know Corinne and Jacque have had some private conversation. So I'm thinking Marcus is playing all three of them, and the women may have something going, too. I'm not sure Bob knows he's in on this yet, but if a five breaks down into pairs, he moves further in. (Although surely no one would want him in front of the jury. Unless they were very arrogant.)
Dictatorship		#28	[-]
Posts: 4138 (09/27/08 7:02 PM) More Recent Posts Message Connection Block Invite	Yeah, I think the two ladies, and Charlie all think that they came up with the foursome alliance (with Marcus passively pointing towards who he wanted in it). The fact that we were only shown the Charlie/Marcus scene is very telling. Marcus will stick by his minion Charlie.
Jedijake		#29	[-]
Posts: 5268 (09/27/08 9:16 PM) MESS member More Recent Posts Message Connection Block Invite	It's interesting that they actually mentioned Bob as a 5th. Often times, if an alliance has extra voters, they don't show or mention them until later, if at all. It must mean that either Bob leaves early as they need to shave weaker players or that Bob goes REALLY far and that they had to show him in the alliance now.
dagny1331		#30	[-]
Posts: 2297 (09/27/08 10:16 PM) Registered User More Recent Posts Message Connection Block Invite	I'm actually interested in a lot of the contestants this season. So far, I should say. Marcus does seem unstoppable, but unless he is Tom v2.0 I'm not sure shy we'd be shown that so clearly if he is the winner. I like Randy, and he seems like a hybrid Sarge/Willard/Sartre. Except I was only a moderate fan of Sarge's, and not much of a fan of Willard's at all. And Sartre was never on Survivor. How many seasons have we watched where no fish are caught unless fishing equipment was won? (Before anyone calls me on this, I do note the exception is Ozzie and any of the shark procurers. And I am throwing out camps where the fish were not plentiful.) I was pretty impressed that they were able to McGyver workable equipment. Corinne is very interesting. Wonder when the 'bitch' will make it's appearance. If you set aside the Marcus crushing, Charlie has very good instincts. Fess up, how many of you cringed when Gillian made her first team member pick?
Kirblar		#31	[-]
Posts: 6535 (09/27/08 10:17 PM) Registered user More Recent Posts Message Connection Block Invite	Fess up, how many of you cringed when Gillian made her first team member pick? Gillian's pick was fine. Crystal's wasn't.
dagny1331		#32	[-]
Posts: 2298 (09/27/08 10:23 PM) Registered User More Recent Posts Message Connection Block Invite	I was wrong, you are right. It was the Susie pick that made no sense, and that was Crystal. But, considering Crystal only said she was a preschool teacher and Gillian didn't know about the Olympics/athletic experience...still not sure that was the right choice at the right time, either. Last Edited By: dagny1331 09/27/08 10:27 PM. Edited 1 times.
kennethp21		#33	[-]
Posts: 3536 (09/27/08 11:14 PM) Registered User More Recent Posts Message Connection Block Invite	dagny1331 wrote: But, considering Crystal only said she was a preschool teacher and Gillian didn't know about the Olympics/athletic experience...still not sure that was the right choice at the right time, either. Come on, any simpleton could see Crystal is athletic. She's big, muscly and in shape. That's like saying no one would believe Serena Williams' athleticism if she introduced herself as a receptionist.
Coachocd		#34	[-]
Posts: 7180 (09/28/08 10:05 AM) MESS member More Recent Posts Message Connection Block Invite	Gillian's pick is "okay", not great. Crystal's pick was as boneheaded an opening game move as Boran dumping 2/3 of their water at the beginning of the game, leaving them dyhydrated and behind for six days.
birdlady		#35	[-]
Posts: 1453 (09/28/08 10:40 AM) Registered user More Recent Posts Message Connection Block Invite	Was it that much bonier than picking Sugar? I wonder if that sorta made Crystal think it was more ok to pick her personal-ally-but-not-tribe-asset Susie, than if Ace had chosen Matty or Marcus. Seems like the yellow team did get an automatic advantage that Bob is much more of an asset than Gillian - he seems to know more practical stuff, he seems to annoy folks less, and he keeps up better in physical challenges.
I LUV TIJUANA		#36	[-]
Posts: 11564 (09/28/08 11:32 AM) Registered user More Recent Posts Message Connection Block Invite	Regarding Marcus and Charlie there are three possibilities. A. Marcus betrays Charlie -I could see this happening. Charlie's infatuation could prevent him from going after Marcus and it will be too late for him. B. Charlie betrays Marcus -This could happen too, much like when Ian tried to go against Tom, of course, that didn't work out. C. They stick by each other -Could happen as well, and it could lead to them getting to F2 together or it could be the downfall of them both. I think the editing suggests scenario A is the most likely.
Kona		#37	[-]
Posts: 294 (09/28/08 12:13 PM) MESS member More Recent Posts Message Connection Block Invite	Que wrote: They all assumed he would find the hii, but he never got across the lake Upon rewatching, Ken did get across the lake. It's just that the 'sandy pit' is across the lake, across the field, through the woods and in the field beyond. Ken just didn't go far enough. _______________ Edited to properly show who made the original quote. ;) Oy, having a bad day today v He apparently over thought inside-the-box, assuming the trees delineated his boundary. Last Edited By: Kona 09/28/08 6:00 PM. Edited 1 times.
crocophile		#38	[-]
Posts: 10032 (09/28/08 4:33 PM) MESS Moderator More Recent Posts Message Connection Block Invite	Kona, to be exact that was someone elses quote I was responding to. ;) I can't figure out why he didn't just walk further, then again he started by looking in the lacke when the clue said the sandy pit was said to be beyond the lake.
Orangeena	A Survivor First-First Gay Showmance	#39	[-]
Posts: 1306 (09/28/08 4:38 PM) Registered User More Recent Posts Message Connection Block Invite	Well, let me be the first to call this season as I see it. Survivor Gay-Bone. Yup, this Gay love story is going to be the central focus of the season and we are shown it in such tended to detail in the 2 hour Opening because it is THEE important relationship that will last the game. It's shown so much, because it's something we've never seen on Survivor before, which is two males in a romantic relationship/alliance. They had to keep cutting to Charlie's perspective, because it's a perspective that most viewers won't have any knowledge of. Charlie's in love. That's the story. And Marcus is smart enough, knowledgeable enough and comfortable enough with his own sexuality to realize he has the PERFECT FINAL TWO partner in Charlie, who, like Ian, will never betray Fireman Tom. Charlie is in perhaps the great love affair, un-requieted though it may be, of this life and he will NEVER do anything to hurt or upset Marcus. And if the two of them are the final two- "How Divine!" thinks Charlie. "I'll give the million dollars to Marcus and he'll love me forever!" It was written LARGE over the first two episodes and everything is in place for this Damon/Pythias to go all the way. And Charlie will make sure that NO ONE gets close to Marcus, except him. So he'll keep Corrine and Jacquie if that's what Marcus wants, but Charlie doesn't want to win the million $, he wants to be Marcus' "special friend" forever and he's figured out already that that's going to be his "heavenly" game plan. And Marcus has figured it out, too. That's why he was shown describing Charlie as being "the inner layer" of the Onion alliance. How valuable is having a gay alliance mate who's madly in love with you? PRICELESS!!!!
jessiiiek		#40	[-]
Posts: 307 (09/28/08 5:02 PM) Registered user More Recent Posts Message Connection Block Invite	Well, Charlie has some big competition, as Corinne and Jacquie are fighting over Marcus' body at night. And they are the gender of his preference. Charlie can give Marcus all the money he wants, it's not going to turn the man gay.

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S17 - Episode 2 - Story Arcs