Yuku free message boards

Survivor: Gabon - Episode 4 (Ratings Watchdog)

Here are my preliminary ratings for Episode 4. This is just after two re-watches though, so some of these are likely to change.

It seems like there's a lot of CPs this time…

New Fang Tribe

Ace: CPM4

Ace got a confessional in the opening scene where he said that Tribal Council was one of the worst experiences of his life (right up there with getting his wisdom teeth pulled) and that Kelly would be the next lamb to the slaughter because she was the second vote for him. He said he didn't know she had that much pent-up animosity towards him to vote against the tribe. At the switch, he got another confessional saying that Kelly was useless and he told get not to pick her for the Fang tribe. He got his third confessional about losing the Immunity Challenge and being "legless chickens" compared to "sleek weasels." At Tribal Council, he said it would be hard for the Fangs to be able to trust the three Kotas until they prove themselves, and he wants to keep the tribe as strong as possible. He then said it would not be the best strategic move to knock him out because he can help the tribe physically and mentally. This is the rating that I'm probably having the hardest time with: I could understand MOR, CP, maybe even OTT, neutral, N, or mixed (strong challenge performance balancing out some negativity) depending on how you want to look at it, so this is the one that could vary the most when I do final ratings.

Crystal: CP4

Crystal was shown briefly in the opening Fang scene and then again at the switch where she said she was upset about not being ranked in the top three of her tribe. Marcus sortof confirmed this to us when he said he thought a girl on Fang might have been up there. In her second confessional, she said that Kelly felt like an outcast and maybe she does belong with Fang (this was in the scene where the Fangs were trying to get Kelly into an alliance). In the challenge, Crystal was shown struggling with the boat but Jeff definitely wasn't calling her out like he was for Kelly. Before Tribal Council, Jacquie made an extended plea to Crystal (after Ken told her to talk to Crystal, which might suggest Crystal was calling the shots). She said that Jacquie was begging and pleading to stay in the game; she tried so hard; she really wants to be there and it was pulling on Crystal's heart strings. Then she got the classic swing-vote type of confessional which is typical of a CP edit that she doesn't know what she's going to do. She said that she needs someone on her team that's gonna fight and that's gonna work hard and Jacquie will do this. Finally, she got kindof fired-up and defensive at Tribal Council about her challenge performance (a reoccurring theme, it seems). Overall, I felt that we got enough from her to earn CP. She was also a part of the strategy scene where she talked about Sugar possibly having the idol with Ken and GC. I could almost see a mixed tone for her though because of her poor challenge performance/reaction to it balanced out by her sympathy towards Jacquie (but then again, she voted Jacquie out so maybe not).

GC: CP4

This week, GC got a variety of different kinds of confessionals: (1) He said that Kenny was picked before him at the switch, not too good for a "pimp; (2) He talked about being in the majority on his tribe because there are four original Fang members so he was feeling good about his position; (3) He said that Fang was originally thinking of voting for Ace or Jacquie, but judging how Kelly performed, he thinks she should go home and he's sure everyone will be fine with voting her off; (4) He said whichever tribe lost the Immunity Challenge picks up Sugar and he don't want Ace/Sugar/Jacquie to be the power in the tribe. Those confessionals were definitely strategic and let us know what some of his inner thoughts were. Furthermore, for perhaps the first time so far he showed self-awareness when he admitted that the last few days have been hard and that he rubbed a few people the wrong way. At Tribal Council, he got a fairly generic answer where he just said that he wants to keep a strong tribe and anytime you lose someone it hurts your team even more. Overall, I think GC is a CLEAR example of a CP here for the mixture of strategy and character insight. I didn't really see any tone for him this time though…

Jacquie: MORP4

Jacquie had a quick scene towards the middle of the episode where she said that she felt Kota was unified, but she wasn't really shown much until the Immunity Challenge, where she performed very well. After that, she had a confessional saying everyone assumes that Sugar is gonna have the idol, so she's feeling totally on the outs. She then had two extended scenes where she made a plea to Ken and then to Crystal to stay in the game. She was tearing up and I definitely feel that the intent was for her to be sympathetically positive - especially after people like Matty said they need to keep the tribe strong and Jacquie's great challenge performance was highlighted repeatedly (and Jeff even called her one of the strongest members). At Tribal Council, she had two TCQS: (1) she thought Fang would have awesome teamwork when she first saw the tribe and she's been working her butt off; (2) she feels vulnerable because she's in the minority. I definitely think she was supposed to come across as a fighter that the audience was rooting for to stay over Kelly, which is why I gave her a positive. I could almost see OTTP in a way and I'll definitely consider it prior to doing final ratings, but as of this moment, I leave her at MORP.

Kelly: MORN3

Kelly got her first confessional of the season in the opening scene where she said that Paloma was voted off, so she lost an ally in the game, and her strategy right now is to get Ace off. She also said she doesn't like Ace, and Ace later had a confessional saying she would be the next lamb to the slaughter. She then got a scene with Jacquie where Kelly basically said she was a bit excluded at Kota, and in the rest of the scene, she (sortof) joined forces with the former Fang members. She had a confessional saying she would rather jump ship and go with Fang than stick with the old Kota, she wants to be a part of that because they have the numbers. She got negative SPV both from Ace (for being weak and useless) and Jeff MANY times for not doing anything to contribute at the Immunity Challenge. At Tribal Council, she said that there's other Fang members that were weaker than her: Ken and Crystal. Two things about this though: Jeff only mentioned each of those once, but we were shown him saying that Kelly was doing poorly, or not doing anything, at least five times (probably closer to ten). So I think we were supposed to not be on her side there. Furthermore, I don't know why she would call out the people in her alliance, but that doesn't affect either her tone or her rating. I don't think she had enough complexity to earn CP so I'll go with MORN for now.

Ken: CP4

I have Ken down as having two confessionals but I somehow missed one of them on the rewatch, so I don't have a note of what he said. I'm pretty sure it was about understanding Kelly's position as the outsider and the last one picked and knowing that he could get her over on his side, and him saying that he was just using her for a vote. In his second one, he got the swing-vote treatment like Crystal, where the editors tried to make it seem like he would vote for Kelly. He said that his mind was not made up and if they make the wrong choice (between Kelly and Jacquie) it could really hurt them later. This was in the scene where he had an extended talk with Jacquie about possibly keeping her. He was also shown a lot in the scene with trying to get Kelly over to Fang and in the final strategy scene with Crystal and GC. He got two Tribal Council questions as well: (1) He said it really hard to trust anyone in three days because you have to build trust from the beginning; (2) He said Kelly and Jacquie have to be the most worried because they need physical players to start winning challenges. Like Crystal and GC, I definitely feel that we got enough from him to warrant a CP.

Matty: MOR4

Matty had a confessional saying he feels comfortable with the four-way alliance and that all that matters in the game is them. Of course, you know that they are all going to be split up with the switch. His second confessional came at the switch, where he once again said that he had a solidified foursome and then Jeff said they're switching teams, it was such a buzz kill. He was involved in some minor strategizing before TC but he wanted to vote Kelly off and the other three Fangs had to explain to him why they should keep her. At Tribal Council, he said that they should keep tribe as strong as possible and he was embarrassed to lose. He also said he doesn't know if he trusts Ace but he wants him on his side because he's (Ace) is a powerful contributor. I almost gave Matty a CP4 at first, but on a second watch, that seems a little bit too inflated for him. Yes, he spoke about the alliance but that doesn't mean that he gave any truly insightful or complex thoughts, so I just went with MOR4. He doesn't seem to have as much development as the other three Fangs did.

New Kota Tribe

Bob: UTRP1

Like Episode 2, I'm giving Bob an UTR1 and I'm throwing the positive onto the end of it because of the SPV about him being a hard-worker. Jeff also asked him a question about not being picked and if he was a "diamond in the ruff."

Charlie: UTR2

Charlie's only confessional was more Marcus-gushing, so Charlie officially has no story of his own four episodes in. Might it be enough to eliminate him? Possibly, but then again, Danni really didn't have much story of her own at this point either. I guess it's maybe a little noteworthy that Charlie still got a confessional and Corinne didn't. Hmm… Update: As far as the visibility chart goes, I'm giving Charlie a 2 because he actually got a confessional and the rest of the "1s" didn't.

Corinne: UTR1

This is a very, very borderline INV1/UTR1 episode for Corinne. It's definitely not great for her chances either way, especially in the switch episode, but we do have to keep in mind that Yul was UTR1 in Episode 4 (he had no confessionals) and Parvati had a near-INV1 episode around 6 or 7.

Dan: UTR1

This is probably the most debatable INV1, but I think he definitely got enough to earn an UTR. Aside from having a few sentences here and there, he was shown in the alliance-forming scene with Susie, Matty, and Randy, and everyone got a little bit of visibility when Jeff pointed them out in the ranking. Let's be realistic though, whether he's INV1 or UTR1 (time will tell), he's not winning with the ratings that he has.

Marcus: MOR3

Marcus got a confessional in response to being ranked #1 on the Kota tribe (which would be important for the winner, I might add), and he also got a strategic confessional talking about possibly voting off Susie or Randy depending on how well they perform in the challenge. Jeff also asked him if he was surprised by anything about the way Fang was ranked. He was the one person on Kota who we got explicit strategy and insight from, so that definitely keeps him far and away on my Contenders list. He has self-awareness and game-awareness, so I felt he was almost CP, although not quite.

Randy: CPM3

In Fang's first scene, Randy once again harped about the rice and said that they needed to only eat one meal a day. He had a confessional talking about GC, Crystal, and Kenny being against him and the other three being his "friends" but not his "allies." In the four-way strategizing scene, Randy once again calls GC a "cancer" and says he needs to be cut out of the tribe. At the switch, Jeff asked him a question about the rankings and he said he didn't take much from it because it doesn't show who's hooked up with whom. At Kota, he had a confessional saying that he was outnumbered by original Kota and if Dan or Susie goes, he'll go along with it; if it's him, he'll burn the camp down. Before the Immunity Challenge, Marcus talked about Randy's performance in the Immunity Challenge being important and then Randy ended up scoring all three goals for Kota, which I felt was supposed to be a minor positive for him, which is why I'm once again giving him a Mixed. I felt like we were supposed to sense that Randy is vulnerable and then be happy for him when he saved himself by getting all the goals. I could definitely see him being either CP or MOR, but I think that CP might work best in this case.

Susie: MOR2

Susie had two confessionals in this episode: (1) She thinks that the other tribe members recognize Bob's work ethic, so if she works hard, hopefully they'll see her as valuable and keep her around; (2) The game takes a toll on a 47 year-old woman and something else in this one that I can't remember right now. I'm giving her the MOR (it's a debatable UTR) because of awareness of Bob's hard work being a positive and trying to emulate that, and because we heard some minor strategy from her with regards to wanting to be valuable to the tribe.

Sugar: CPP5 (just kidding); MOR2

All we saw of Sugar in this episode was a pretty short scene of her on Exile Island, where she had a confessional about choosing the comfort over the clue, and then about wanting to take over Kelly's place in the Fang tribe after Kelly is voted off. Like last episode, she showed complex and strategic thought, but unlike last week where we had that big debate, I'm not going to give her a CP. It was essentially the same type of edit as Marcus', I felt. She was almost there, but not quite. I could see her getting a positive again, but I think if she does, it's going to be more because of her personality and because this episode is coming off of last week's - NOT because of the intent of the edit.

MOST POSSIBLE WINNER:

Marcus

STILL POSSIBLE (SURPRISINGLY, TO ME)

Crystal, Matty

Crystal still seems slightly possible to me, although considering how strong Marcus' edit is at this point, it really is like grasping at straws to find a #2 or #3 after this week. Crystal seems to lack the longterm story that Marcus, Corinne, or Charlie have. The same thing goes for Matty, although he is definitely getting some attention (with the confessionals about the Fang alliance this week and an opening confessional). I think these two Fangs might be in the game for a while but not win.

STILL POSSIBLE (BUT LOOKING MORE LIKE ENDGAME PLAYERS THAN WINNERS):

Corinne, Charlie

Corinne's near INV1 and the fact that Charlie's story remains entirely tied to Marcus are not good for either of them. I still think they'll probably be endgame players though but that doesn't help them for being able to win edgically.

ELIMINATED BY EDGIC:

Ace, Bob, Dan, G.C., Jacquie, Kelly, Ken, Paloma, Randy, Sugar, Susie

Nothing changes here. I'll just restate what I said last week:

Most of these people either have an INV1 or an episode that was very close to it (Bob, Ken). I also eliminate G.C. for his huge visibility in Episode 2, the fact that his story has revolved around leadership and him being a leader who quit and is in over his head, he's been shown as giving up in challenges, he's going negative now, etc. For Randy, three Mixed tones (according to my ratings) is concerning to me and the way he's giving grumpy confessionals seems to not be very winner-like to me.

PRELIMINARY CHART: