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I really believe that Dan is pretty certain to get the votes of Michelle, Keesha and Renny. I think it would take a superb jury performance from Memphis to win them over. Memphis tonight told Dan he wouldn't bring up Dan being in on her ouster if Dan didn't bring up the car, which is stupid. Everyone is going to remember the car no matter what. In fact, I think someone like April might be impressed that Memphis navigated his way through the game despite having the car hung around his neck. I think that's a bad trade, even if its not really binding. Also, Dan did a good job inoculating himself by explaining to Keesha (I think he spoke in metaphors about this, might have even used a sock to explain) that he did have an arrangement with Memphis that ran parallel to the one he had with Keesha/Renny. I think Dan sold Michelle well during the trip and he did a great job appealing to her ego. Plus, what Memphis did to Keesha will have to resonate with Michelle.

I believe, like everyone else, that Ollie/April will vote the same. It would be a shocker if they didn't. It's really the only to ensure they have any power. It was interesting that April used the phrase "coasted" in regards to Memphis in her jury Q&A. That seemingly have a negative connotation. I do remember her talking positively about him after she left. I can't believe Ollie will vote for Dan to win after everything he did and I can't believe that April won't back up her man.

I'm most interested in Libra's vote. She's been a minimal presence in the jury footage and hasn't been around to see the game develop at all. She had an okay relationship with Memphis, but Dan actually was one of the few people to comfort her while she was on the block during the days of shunning. They even were flirting over a secretive final two alliance. Still, I think she'll vote for who the best player, which is completely dependent on her perspective. What I found interesting is this quote from EW.com on her favorite player: "Everyone loves Janelle, while I like Will. He's the puppet master, while apparently I am the puppet mistress." I think the fact that Memphis made the final 2 without winning an HOH (like Will) will actually impress her. Dan's challenge will be to articulate his very complex, very manipulative gameplay to her without alienating Keesha and Renny.

It's hard to know what the old fart will do. I hope his vote is irrelevant. I think he'll vote for Memphis, especially once he gets around Ollie and April again. The only way I see him changing is if he gets the sense that Dan is popular with viewers or that Dan already has four votes and he doesn't want to be on a losing side. I think Jerry advocating for Memphis won't really net any votes, but could push some away. Both Libra and Renny really went after him in post-game interviews and would be happy to deny him relevance one last time by going the other way on him.

I don't think there's any chance of a blowout happening unless April/Ollie know they don't have the votes and make a bid for popularity by voting for Dan. Before the questioning, I see Dan with a 3-2 lead with Libra and Jerry being the only votes that could sway, either by D/M's performances during the jury questioning or by outside influence from the producers, advocating for a Dan win.

The big thing here though is that Dan has such an advantage in knowing which votes he has a good shot at and who are the votes that can swing a win to him. He knows he can say fuck you to April/Ollie, appeal to Libra specifically and win. Memphis basically has to randomly target every vote in the hopes of getting four. Memphis doesn't know that he probably has April/Ollie's votes and therefore should be working Michelle and Libra. And he has no idea that Michelle would be in Dan's corner to the extent she might be. If the beach trip comes out during questioning, it's going to reflect poorly on Memphis, not Dan.

It looks like this vote will go 5-2 or 4-3 Dan or 4-3 Memphis. If either gets six votes, I'll be stunned.