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Monty Hall's riddle

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Antithesys		#61	[-]
Posts: 22674 (08/10/08 10:35 PM) Gadabout Reply Quote More Recent Posts Message Connection Block Invite	Yeah, there were no goats on Let's Make a Deal, and in fact I'm pretty sure this problem was never applicable to any of the games on the show.
Hamdingers		#62	[-]
Posts: 11598 (08/10/08 10:37 PM) Reply Quote More Recent Posts Message Connection Block Invite	There absolutely were goats on the original LMAD.
Gregoire		#63	[-]
Posts: 28371 (08/10/08 10:41 PM) Registered user Reply Quote More Recent Posts Message Connection Block Invite	I want a goat!
Roadfinder		#64	[-]
Posts: 4349 (08/10/08 11:29 PM) Registered user Reply Quote More Recent Posts Message Connection Block Invite	A bit out of focus, but amusing nonetheless. And oh yes, there were goats in the original show! Gregoire, if you want a goat, don't switch. If you switch, most likely you'll win a brand new $9,959 Mazda... in those days. �
glazerboy		#65	[-]
Posts: 2682 (08/11/08 4:17 AM) Registered User Reply Quote More Recent Posts Message Connection Block Invite	Damn you all for putting this in my head. I woke up in the middle of the night and couldn't fall asleep until I finally got the solution in my head. The odds NEVER change. When there are 3 doors available, the odds are 1:3 that you will pick the right one. Once you pick a door, there are now 2 sets - Set A=your door=1:3 odds, and Set B=the other 2 doors=2:3 odds. Revealing a losing door doesn't change the odds that Set B has a 2:3 chance of holding the winning door. Somebody probably already explained that but it took a sleepless night at 3am for me to get it. Now I'm going to be tired at work all day. Thanks a lot!
Screerider		#66	[-]
Posts: 22434 (08/11/08 2:12 PM) Registered user Reply Quote More Recent Posts Message Connection Block Invite	Another way to look at this as the chances of losing. The only way you lose by switching is if you picked the winning door in the first place. Since you had a 1/3 chance of picking the winning door, switching means you have a 1/3 chance of losing. And since 1 - 1/3 = 2/3, you have a 2/3 chance of winning by switching. Link to old thread containing this subject: http://survivorsucks.yuku.com/reply/2372165/t/Riddles-for-OT.html#reply-2372165 Would you switch? Last Edited By: Screerider 08/11/08 2:19 PM. Edited 1 times.

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