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Stupid Underdog Picks!!

OK - this is the game for the thread this year!! This post shows an example week from last year, to explain how it'll work.

Summary: Pick THREE GAMES each week. If the 'Underdog' team in a game you've chosen wins the game outright, you get the points value from the 'Today' column for that game. The person having the greatest number of points at the end of the year wins!!

(Completely IGNORE the 'Open' and 'O/U' columns for this game. It would create a ton of work for me to strip them from the table every week, which I ain't gonna do. )


To show this example, I've highlighted the 'Today' point values in RED in the chart to indicate contests where the 'Underdog' team won the game. So, to point out a few examples:

- LOW reward: Georgia Tech won their game vs. Miami (FL), which would have gotten you 2 1/2 points if you'd picked that game. This was expected to be a close game, so the points value was small. However, you have a much better chance of picking a winner in a game like this, where the teams are pretty evenly matched.

- MEDIUM reward: North Texas beat Louisiana-Monroe, which would have earned you 7 points if you'd chosen that game. Louisiana-Monroe was expected to win this game by a TD, so the points value was middling. This is a moderately greater upset than a LOW value game would be, so the points reward is a bit greater... but the chances of correctly picking an underdog winner in these MEDIUM value games are moderately lower, as well.

- HIGH reward: Oregon State, a two touchdown underdog, defeated Cal, which would have given you 14 points if you'd selected that game. Cal was expected to win this game with moderate ease, so the points value earned by Oregon State's upset was nicely rewarding. However, remember that your chances of picking a winner in a game like this, where the 'Favorite' is expected to win handily, are significantly smaller than it is in games where the two teams are more evenly matched.


Notice that there are a few INSANE reward games here and there. The odds of actually having an underdog win one of those games is typically extremely small... but, if it somehow DOES happen, the reward is huge! It's got to be an outright win for the underdog, though - 'close' earns you absolutely nothing.

The Boise State vs. Nevada game is an excellent example. It took quadruple OT for Boise State to win that game - Nevada was SOOOOOO close to scoring a huge upset!! IF they had done so, it would've earned a huge 26 points for you if you'd chosen that game... however, they didn't - so you get nothing.

On the flip side of the coin, though, in a game that was played during another week last year, Stanford was a 41 point underdog to USC and won the game!! It doesn't matter that USC's QB was playing injured - all that matters is that Stanford won. Period. If you'd have selected that game, you'd have brought home a massive 41 point goldmine.

NOTE, though - the odds of correctly picking a U-dog in a game like this are so low, you'd be lucky if you even got one during the entire year. Nearly 100% of the time, choosing a game like this is basically throwing away one of your picks.



I'll post the week's games early in the week, most often on Tuesday, I'm guessing. Just make a post telling which three games you're selecting. If you would, please, if you change your mind and want to pick a different game after making your initial selections, don't edit your original post if one of the games you've selected has already begun - instead, make a new post, telling of the change you're wanting to make, including the game from your original picks that you're replacing.



That's it! I'll post the Odds Chart for the first week of games a week from today. If you have any questions about any of this, just ask.


Most of all... just HAVE FUN with it!! That's the entire purpose in the first place. Good luck, everyone!!!



EXAMPLE chart of Underdog winners (noted with points earned in RED) from a week from last year

NCAAF
Thursday, Oct 11
Favorite	Open	Today	O/U	Underdog
Florida State	5 1/2	5 1/2	43 1/2	at Wake Forest
Friday, Oct 12
Favorite	Open	Today	O/U	Underdog
Hawaii	17 1/2	18 1/2	70	at San Jose State
Saturday, Oct 13
Favorite	Open	Today	O/U	Underdog
at Akron	10	10 1/2	49	Temple
Alabama	6 1/2	6	49	at Mississippi
at Arizona State	11	11 1/2	54	Washington
at Arkansas	2 1/2	3	49 1/2	Auburn
at Arkansas State	9	9	58 1/2	Louisiana-Lafayette
Boston College	14	13 1/2	46 1/2	at Notre Dame
Brigham Young	10 1/2	11	49 1/2	at UNLV
at Buffalo	3	3	61 1/2	Toledo
at California	14	14	57 1/2	Oregon State
at Central Michigan	11	13 1/2	54	Army
at Cincinnati	10	10	66	Louisville
at Colorado State	3 1/2	3 1/2	47	Air Force
Fresno State	11	9 1/2	57	at Idaho
Georgia	7	7	44 1/2	at Vanderbilt
at Houston	20	21	66 1/2	Rice
Illinois	3	3 1/2	44	at Iowa
at Kansas	24	25 1/2	61	Baylor
at Kansas State	6	5	50	Colorado
LSU	9	10	54 1/2	at Kentucky
at Louisiana Tech	NL	7 1/2	N/A	New Mexico State
Louisiana-Monroe	7	7	62 1/2	at North Texas
at Memphis	4	4	55 1/2	Middle Tennessee
at Miami (FL)	3	2 1/2	42 1/2	Georgia Tech
at Miami (OH)	2 1/2	1 1/2	57 1/2	Bowling Green
at Michigan	5	5 1/2	56 1/2	Purdue
at Michigan State	5 1/2	3 1/2	62 1/2	Indiana
at Nebraska	4	3 1/2	63	Oklahoma State
at Northwestern	7	7	66	Minnesota
at Ohio	5	4 1/2	44 1/2	Eastern Michigan
at Ohio State	30 1/2	31	49	Kent State
at Oklahoma	9	10 1/2	61	Missouri
at Oregon	17 1/2	18 1/2	69	Washington State
at Penn State	6	7	44	Wisconsin
Rutgers	16 1/2	17 1/2	55	at Syracuse
South Carolina	6	7	47 1/2	at North Carolina
at South Florida	11	11 1/2	54 1/2	UCF
at Southern Miss	9	8 1/2	55	Southern Methodist
TCU	4	6	47	at Stanford
Tennessee	7 1/2	7	52	at Mississippi State
Texas	16	16	53 1/2	at Iowa State
at Texas Tech	8	8 1/2	69 1/2	Texas A&M
at Tulsa	13 1/2	14	70 1/2	Marshall
at UAB	3 1/2	3	49 1/2	Tulane
at USC	22	21	57	Arizona
at UTEP	2	3	65	East Carolina
at Utah	14	13 1/2	55	San Diego State
at Virginia	3 1/2	3	44	Connecticut
Virginia Tech	13	14	46	at Duke
Western Michigan	4	4	59	at Northern Illinois
at Wyoming	3 1/2	3 1/2	49 1/2	New Mexico
Sunday, Oct 14
Favorite	Open	Today	O/U	Underdog
at Boise State	NL	26	61	Nevada