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Hello there Mole Fans. Sorry again for the delay but I like to try and give the show at least 3 good watches before putting up the Mole rankings.

This was an intriguing episode, what with the high drama of a successful bribe as well as an execution on top of it. It also was a bit of a problematic episode in that there wasn't a heckuva lotta money lost and any sabotage seemed to be rather spread-out amongst the would-be moles.

First we had the luge challenge. This may be the first time in a regular mole game where the players seem to be actively looking for hidden clues themselves (I think Corbin did in Celebrity Mole). Though Bobby throwing the whole Paul/New York/apple thing may have been as much a weak attempt at throwing Mark off I guess. Nicole through out a wacky 5/5/5 type of thing with Bobby during the quiz as well.

Anyhow the teams easily demonstrated that there were a lot of ways to mess with this challenge. Do well but talk after hitting the finish line (Clay/Bobby/Victoria/Craig) or the blatant screw-up the order way (Nicole/Alex). I thought it was weird that there seemed to be no time element as to how long it took them to get down the hill - figured that would be another way for a mole to mess with things.

The other challenge had a straightforward element of "I'm too proud to walk around in my skivvies" Mole play. It's interesting that Clay and Mark were the only 2 to opt out in that they seem to be working together in the game. Everybody else made it through and frankly seemed to be doing their best to get there.

Anyhow, on to the rankings.

10) Bobby. Okay, okay, this is pretty ridiculous to have him here with a percentage greater than zero but it comes from the tiniest bit of history. In another version of the Mole in another country there actually was a case of the Mole being removed from the game (can't recall if it was executed or bribed) and then brought back in under some wacky circumstance. Still it's pretty clear that once he saw Ali take the bribe and that the execution would continue, he knew he was done for. That reaction seemed sincere and hopefully over this week I'll get a chance to go back through the "Ali" answers to the quiz and see if they might shed a little light on who may have previously coincided with her on the quiz but didn't this time. Mole probability 0.001% J (this automatically drops to 0 when he doesn't return to the game this week). Given how big a fan he is of the show, I'll give a shout out to Bobby here - it wouldn't surprise me if he isn't checking out this post today. I could swear I may have seen him at the casting in NY for the show (I alluded to this earlier in the thread), though I'm not 100% sure on that scale. I at least like to flatter myself with the idea that that's why I failed in my own casting attempt ;)

9) Ali. For the same reasons as Bobby, I have to give a percentage greater than 0 just in case ABC is in trickery mode. But if she's the Mole and it's pretty clear Bobby used her for most or all of his answers on the quiz, then, well she can't be the Mole now can she? Mole probability 0.009% J (this too automatically drops to 0 when she doesn't return to the game this week)

8) Kristen. Kristen has developed a pretty bad habit of successfully putting money in the pot. She got all $14k in the pot during the luge challenge and successfully got clothing in the spa challenge. This does not a Mole make. Kristen is not the Mole. Mole probability 0.99%

Spots 7 through 3 really are a jumble at this point. We'll see if any of 'em break out of the pack next week.

7) Alex. He used his Spanish to succeed in a challenge. With all the time they've spent in Chile, you'd have to think they'd almost want to pick on non-Spanish speaking Mole just for that reason alone (or one that wasn't so eager to use their skill). As for the luge challenge, it could range from anything to innocent mistake to purposely trying to pin the "Mole" tag onto to Nicole (secret alliance?) to actual convenient Mole behavior. The concept that are allied isn't too far fetched as he appeared to plant his diary in Bobby's room saying that he suspected Nicole. Regardless, he really seems too competitive to be the Mole and thus, Alex is indeed not the Mole. Mole probability 2.8%

6) Craig. As he himself points out, Craig hasn't exactly contributed a lot to the team succeeding overall. The thing is that seems to be more of a function of his physical attributes than any intentional sabotage. It is kinda convenient that he did discover the cleaner and their clothes (with apparently minutes left - a time that would be pretty useless in terms of helping the other groups in the challenge). He did continue talking with Victoria at the end and it's true that that's suspicious. I just don't think it adds up to him being the Mole. Craig is not the Mole. Mole probability 3.0%

5) Paul. I nearly knocked him down the rankings last week, but I simply cannot keep him up high any longer. Even this 5^th-place ranking seems a bit on the high side. The truth of the matter is that Paul really seems to be just an all-out player. His team got $10k out of a possible $14k (not real meaningful sabotage if you ask me) and he was useful in getting the help from the Americans in the other challenge (it's only a tiny bit suspicious they were from NYC - I really think that's just a coincidence). The only thing that he's done that's truly Mole-like would be his constant berating of the other players. While I do think the Mole could act to hurt the team in this fashion, I think it would have to be on top of some genuine sabotage. He looked like he was at least considering taking that bribe. Maybe he took a week off, but Paul is Not the Mole. Mole probability 3.2%

4) Clay. Clay kinda moves up the chart almost by default here. I really shouldn't give him any sabotage points on the luge challenge, because it's pretty clear that Bobby was the first one to speak after the finish line. He pulled out of the clothing challenge, but it's completely possible that that was tactical on his part more than anything else. Next week will likely be the last that I hold any suspicions for him at all. Clay is not the Mole. Mole probability 3.4%

3) Mark. MarkFOMO's rejoice. I've moved your guy up the rankings! (Just don't look at the percentage that appears below and I'm sure you'll stay excited.) Unlike Clay and Paul, I really have to say that Mark does at least have an opportunity to move up this chart if he shows something next week. The part where he chokes up about his family in episode 1 has struck me as possibly being forced, but that really wouldn't be enough of an argument. He did in fact do some damage last week and this week he did strike again for a more modest $5k in the clothing challenge with his seemingly random opt out. Still I just get the idea that if he really is the Mole, he's not very good at it (at least not yet). The one thing I can say is that he is one of three players that I examined how many times he intersected with Ali on the quiz and there only were 2. That might be the strongest evidence there is, frankly. I can't move the percentage nearly to the degree that I've moved the ranking. Mark is not the Mole. Mole probability 3.6%

2) Victoria. There's just something about her that gives me a degree of pause (and it's not just her looks). There has been a degree of failure associated with her in each episode (though it's not usually very blatant). It's tough to fully peg the blame on just her in the luge challenge (it seems like Craig and her were actually talking to each other simultaneously past the finish line) though she did talk on and on afterwards. She didn't do anything destructive in the spa challenge (and while it is interesting that she pegged exactly what would happen, it's not like she was alone in that thought) but maybe that's just 'cause her day was done as Mole. I have to admit upon watching the episode when I saw them sit down dinner I though "ZOMG! There's a big Texas flag behind them at dinner - could it be more obvious?!?" Then I recalled the flag of Chile was similar and later confirmed that it in fact is the flag of Chile up there - not the Texas flag. Still was kinda interesting though and it probably made me notice that star-shaped tattoo that Victoria has on her right wrist. It's a real stretch probably, but they did show the religious statue and highlighted it's hand immediately before question 1. I'm still not ready to move her past Nicole just yet though. For now, Victoria is still NOT the Mole. Mole probability 40%.

So that brings me back once again to…

1) Nicole. I still have her as the leading contender, though if she is the Mole she's doing it with an interesting style. Basically it's "look how hard I'm trying to look like the Mole by screwing up stuff." This is a totally plausible way to play it if nobody really is on to you. If there's a "shock" Alex execution in the next week or two during which he's suddenly quiet about who his Mole choice is this will actually solidify me on Nicole. (I may be wrong but the fact that he's consistently floated Nicole leads me to this possibly happening - essentially as a means of getting viewers off the Nicole track. The premise I'm going on is that Alex will change his mind on the Mole, but they won't show you that. Heh, could be wrong though J ) Anyhow, once again she did some clear damage in this episode, costing the team $12k with an "innocent" mistake. Btw, the double apple was interesting - it may be crazy but perhaps that was her plan (have Alex double up the apple) and Jon's eating the apple was actually a visual clue for that. One last thing, though I'm sure someone noticed it already, during the clothing challenge I saw something interesting. After Nicole had gotten clothes (but before they discovered the Laundromat) there is a shot of her in front of a garage. It looks kinda like the word "Mole" (or maybe Moel) is written on the wall behind her with an arrow pointing to her. This does bring to mind a certain notorious "Al for Mole" clue from a past season but I just thought I'd point it out. I can't waver on her yet as she's either a tough player or an in-your-face Mole. I'm still inclined to think it's the latter. Nicole IS the Mole. Mole probability 43%.

So there you go folks J I swear I'll try to be faster this coming week, if for no other reason that it's someone's birthday who's near and to my heart next Monday and I wan't to be rested and ready to celebrate with some Mole watching!

Cheers!

-QG

The beauty of the Mole is that it can be played different ways :) I'm sure some of the stylistics are determined by how the players seem to be doing on the tests. Kathryn and Bill took very different approaches (for example, Kathryn kept a journal with ridiculously complete notes while Bill had a blank journal until he found out a day ahead of time that they would be trading journals).
-QG

Awww Thx Trixiego!! :)

Hey there Mole Fans. Good news and bad news this week. The good news is that my summary and Mole rankings are up early this week. The bad news is that due to computer foul-ups, my internet access will be pretty limited until after the next episode (I'm not working on Monday - it's somebody's birthday J) so I might not be able to respond to anybody before then. My apologies in advance.

QUICK REMINDER (though nobody's done this). This is a spoiler-free thread. If there's a ghost of a whiff of a chance of a spoiler please don't put it in this thread. Thanks again J

And for all the folks who've said such kind things I really, really appreciate it!

One last note before the good stuff - please support the Mole advertisers and tell 'em how much you appreciate their support of the show - it can't but help give us a chance at more summertime Mole fun down the road I would think J

Anyhow, on to the rankings! (I have re-watched all 4 episodes before putting these percentages together, btw.) I'll have a tiny bit of stuff possibly from the earlier episodes. I had hoped to do a full cross-analysis of the quizzes as well, but it looks like I'll have to save that for the next episode's review I guess. Given that the Mole selections for at least one player (Bobby) seem quite obvious (by the look on his face when Ali took the bribe), it may be possible to try and tease out a little bit about who is or isn't the Mole. Or maybe not. The funny thing about the show is it's possible for EVERY player to know who the Mole is all the way - somebody will fail the quiz and get eliminated. It's also possible that EVERY player got only say 1 to 3 right and are totally off track. Again, all but 1 of them will be safe. Since we don't know the actual quiz results, we really don't know how everyone's doing which is a big part of the fun J

10) Uh, Bobby didn't come back so like he definitely ain't the Mole. Mole probability 0%.

9) Uh, neither did Ali. Again, Mole probability 0%.

8) Victoria L. Well the good news is that I've now got some newly release Mole percentages to play with. That's also the bad news along with the fact that the lovely Victoria will no longer grace our screen (at least until the finale). Mole probability 0%.

Okay now for the true long shots:

7) Kristen. Other than the bicycle climb, it's really, really, really hard to pinpoint failures that you can relate to her. I guess she coulda tried to push Bobby and Craig harder in the wheelbarrow challenge, but she's real got a great track record of getting money in the pot. She carried the most bars on her team. She got her question right (okay with ridiculous help from Nicole). She got all the fruits lined up right and succeeded in the clothes challenge. As I even type this I'm revising her number downward. I would be genuinely STUNNED if Kristen were the Mole. But of course, Kristen is not the Mole. Mole probability 0.2%

6) Paul. Paul has plummeted a long way in my rankings. He's been really good about stirring dissention in the ranks of the players, but I really don't see this having a negative effect on his performance or the performance of the other players. It seems like his game is to hope people think he's the Mole because he is stirring this up, but I don't think that's working. He did fine on the gold mission, though he did ambivalently cost $2k in the Who Said What mission. But by-and-large he looks more and more like a player (his near acceptance of the bribe struck me as genuine). Paul is not the Mole. Mole probability 1.5%

5) Alex. Alex seems to be playing a relatively "keep to himself" type of game actually, at least I don't think he's a big info gatherer (he's treated his journal with ambivalence the whole game). Nothing suspicious in the gold game though he did lose $2k with his guess. It would be Mole-like to keep his journal safe (you gotta believe the Mole knew what was going to happen to them with the fire). Still, I don't think his over-all performance seems to add up to being the Mole. He has been one of the bigger money-getters (witness the pig challenge). I'm just not seeing it from him. Alex is not the Mole. Mole probability 2.0%

4) Craig. A lot of this would be predicated on him getting removed from the game for a day on purpose (thank goodness this isn't like that island-based reality show eh?). That is possible (remove the Mole, stir up trouble with the others, get them to be jealous of his keeping his journal, it's not completely unreasonable). His removal from that game can be seen as having cost $2k in the Who Said What challenge since the maximum they could get right became 7, instead of 8. Still, a heavy man carrying about 40 pounds or so on his back up a steep hill in cold weather with thin air and succeeding just in time?!? That really goes strongly against him being the Mole - it'd just be way too easy for him to barely fail and make it look real there. And I don't think you can really fake the redness in his face. Still, Craig doesn't exactly have a long line of successes during the game and there are certain failures like the fruit challenge. But I just really don't see him being the Mole. Mole probability 3.2%

On to the more plausible candidates:

3) Clay. Clay really holds a middle ground here with me. There have been a lot of recent failures (or non-successes on his part) and it makes it a lot tougher to dismiss him like it is with the others above. The fruit challenge was NOT one of those cases (Bobby was the talker first - I checked again). But the laundry challenge certainly could have been. The gold rush game also was definitely a case where that coulda been a Mole strong-arm (though I really think that is a strong PLAYER move really - you either get an exemption or throw major suspicion upon yourself or even both - that's a winning player move there). He was one of the many many failures in the beach challenge (that's a tough one to grade as really Marcie, (remember her?) was probably the biggest hero in that game. He could just be a guy that's spent a lot of time with the Mole and knows it. Deep down it's not impossible, but I really believe Clay is not the Mole. Mole probability 8.0%

2) Mark. Okay I'll even cop that I am pretty close to being stubborn here (and the temptation of being able to say I was right all along, which is not possible if I pick Mark, is quite alluring for sure). I'm Guy enough to admit that. If the episodes were played backwards he very well could be further up the list here and MarkFOMOs you may just win me over yet. But MarkFOMOs you will like the percentage I give this week, I assure you. Taken individually Mark's actions don't really seem like too much, but collectively they really do indicate at least a potential pattern. Outside of the bicycle climb challenge, I can't really say that I think he's been a particularly harmful Mole, but perhaps the players have just barely gotten the better of him a couple times. Going back to the beginning, he succeeds in his jump. This is a good start for a subtle Mole as he builds a go-getter type of personality (here better be money in here!). Kathryn was cast in a hero role early in season one, so it certainly does make sense. In the beach challenge, he controlled the bell. The only real "throwaway" attempt was the first one (which included the Victrola that he did yell out for them to look for). I'm not sure if he put the 2^nd gun on the table (though it could be reasoned that's a cover your bases play). Still if you look at it, he actually maximized money on the task - the last two items (including the tea kettle - more on that in a bit) were still out in the field. The hill challenge, pretty self-explanatory. Take money out of the pot, but still look a "gamer" by sparing the $5k taxi ride. They did get lost in the pigs game and perhaps he thought they had managed to delay enough to keep all the pigs from getting launched (he started to look to blame others for that even before the end of that game) and he does offer to "help" though Alex wouldn't let him. That could just be essentially a failure by the Mole. I also think (and I'm sure it's been massively commented on elsewhere even though I haven't read it) how in a couple of the shots at the execution Mark is just about perfectly framed in Green where the green highlighted statue is behind him. It's plausible. The green apple theme is plausible as well (there was one in the cabin in episode one as well as Mark eating one in episode three). Whoa, wait QuizGuy, what do you mean with the apple, what does that have to do with him?!? While Bobby may have associated it with New York, perhaps the old adage the apple for the TEACHER was more at play. I really can't discount that and frankly the guy does lead in plausible hidden clues at this rate. Still the fruit challenge is one where he does nothing suspicious - they get the full $14k (he teamed up again with Kristen). I find it interesting that he seems to be with Kristen or Clay on almost all his missions. Perhaps the Mole finds the best game-players (and less suspected people) are the best cover for him. This is pretty reasonable. If he's the Mole, he had no problem letting Clay give him an opening to drop an easy $5k in the clothing game. Who knows, it's entirely possible that he's a player teaming up with his coalition partner, or the Mole using his fake partner to advance his ends. With the most recent episode we see Mark change a little even before the loss of the journals. He is pretty cranky again on that hill climb and he does sacrifice $1000 by grabbing the scale (though I will add that that is a perfect offset in weight). Loading up the other guys could have been a Mole gamble (as in there's no way Craig will make it) that again failed. If he's the Mole and is subtle I think his position in this game is reasonable though (dropping all the money looking for an exemption would seem to be way too attention grabbing). He did get his question right in the Who Said What challenge - on what seemed a hard question. The theatrics of his reaction to the book burning really brought to mind his early mention of his family which seemed over the top. The notes have been a HUGE part of his story arc and even been thrown in the others (The Alex/Bobby journal thing). Frankly the large bulk of the quiz questions seem to be really easy enough to remember without notes with only a few exceptions (the massage type, exact age, where they were standing relative to Jon). Oh and as a final thing, I might be crazy but I could swear I saw a teapot brewing in the shot behind Mark at the last dinner before the last execution. But maybe I'm crazy and that's not a clue. And after ALL the above, I'm still stubborn and still have to say Mark is not the Mole. Mole probability of 42.0% But I'm not even sure if I believe that myself ;)

Which brings us back to Mole Mole Mole Mole…

1) Nicole. I still have to stick with my original as she hasn't disqualified herself yet (and might not until she's actually executed). It is still totally possibly to frame her game as that of an upfront and in-your-face type of Mole. Basically the "I'm trying so hard to look the Mole, I couldn't POSSIBLY be the Mole" type of game. She does seem to lose money a fair amount of the time and if the producers decided they wanted to "shock" us they have given enough story lines to leave that room there. She did catch the bag at first, like Mark, though in a completely crazy way. She did cause turmoil and did sabotage that was probably more effective than Paul because she at least could've cost sleep in the beach challenge and really did seem to get handed that spot (who else would be considered the whiner at that point? Nobody. The idea that that could be a setup is still sound, especially as that failed challenge would allow the players to initial suspect each other (basically an alternate build to what's to come). She did suggest athletic people for the bike challenge first it seems - and heck you gotta figure there's at least a good chance that the Mole would want to keep the Soccer Coach away from the soccer side of the challenge. As goalie, time wasting would be very possible there too. The pig challenge is slightly troubling in the sense that she really did seem to contribute once Craig was her slingshot partner. 28 seems like a very successful pig total really. The next episode gave us the other plausible Green Apple theory as a hidden clue as she introduced the double Green Apple to Alex. And heck, the avocado just plain disappeared from sight - did she not even mention it? This may seem transparent and it's possible seeing Jon eat the apple even made her think quick to highlight it but facts are facts. That $12,000 lost is more than what Mark did in damage with the clothing challenge. (Plus the graffiti wall pseudo-clue came in here, but I'm not sure even I buy that one). Maybe the Mole's job was done for the day right there and she didn't feel the need to sabotage anymore. Now in the hill challenge the easier version of dropping the gold bars would be to never load them in your bag in the first place. 4 seems like a really weak number - even Victoria took on more! She didn't really do much attempted sabotage (it's tough to "slow down" when there's an even slower team behind you) and perhaps the roughest thing of all, at least in terms of hurting her chances as Mole was the fact that she pretty much easily rolled over when Clay wanted to take the exemption from Kristen. It seems like that would be a great chance for a Mole to step in and say no-no-no-no-no. But again, maybe that'd be too far out of character (her sticking up for Kristen's spirit) for the rest of the way she has been. The Who Said What game was an almost comical sabotage that was in fact successful. It looked completely ridiculous for sure, but again the Mole who's pretending to be the Mole needs to actually look this ridiculous in order to look like a player. Get it? J In terms of story framing, the clues that would lead me to think Nicole might actually be the 'surprise' Mole would be the fact that we have the 'tension' of (presumably but we don't know for sure) her being the person to survive by 5 seconds on a tie. She mentions her "answer the questions as fast as possible strategy" in a voiceover during the quiz. It's totally possible that could've been done any time. If we see a "shock" Alex exit after his repeated suspicions of Nicole (at least mentioned) that would again possibly be put out as a deception to the audience (Alex is gone, so there's NO WAY Nicole's the Mole). Still, I will cop to the fact that if episode one hadn't happened I might not be here with this projection right now. But I'm a stubborn old QuizGuy and there's still a lot there to make the case for her. I'll still say it. Nicole is the Mole. Mole probability 43.1%

So there you have it Mole fans!!!!

Sorry again about my possible lack of responsiveness here over the next few days.

I'll humbly ask that those reading this possibly give a bump or two on Sunday night (when I've usually posted this) for those fans that might be looking for it then.

Happy Mole Hunting Everyone!

(the soon to be older)

-QG

Hey folks, sorry it too so long again, but at least you have a Sunday night to chew on my posts (plus I actually do have a bonus for you this week). Been hunkering down on a major reanalysis today and I did find a couple interesting things.

Since I'm a bit of a dessert first guy, I'll actually give you the bonus first. As promised I have analyzed all of the quiz questions from the first 6 episodes to see if there were any patterns or suspicious things. I also needed to analyze specifically where Ali actually fit into all this in the first 3 quizzes as I just couldn't get over Bobby's reaction when she took the bribe and he realized the execution would continue - it struck me as pure defeat and I think it's quite possible that he targeted her on his quiz (at least that night, perhaps even earlier).

Now even as I present this, it needs to be taken a bit with a grain of salt in terms of its usefulness for analytical purposes. We don't know how the contestants are performing on their quizzes and that may be a big factor in determining how unique or clustered the answer choices may be.

One other thought - I noticed a post noting "Nicole's unfair advantage." This is true in a technical sense. If she's a player, she is the only woman and therefore will always get Question 1 correct. However, in looking back at the prior quizzes, there are plenty of instances of "gimmee" questions benefitting one player or another (Did the Mole ride in a Wheelbarrow? Did the Mole get into a sleeping bag? Are two such examples.) I do think that the producers do their best to balance such things out. I also think that it's one of the unfortunate things about the switch in the quiz from the 20 questions of season one to the 10 questions of future seasons.

Anyhow, the analysis.
Basically I did a very simple thing. For each player on each quiz I counted the number of other players that coincided with the player as a choice on each quiz question (I included the player themselves in the total). For example, in episode 2, question 1 had two answers, Male and Female. For the Males there were 6 people who fit the bill, and for the females there were 5. Thus each male had 6 added to their total. Each female 5. Obviously for unique questions, like "Who is the Mole", everybody got 1 added to their total. The higher the number, the less "unique" that player was as answer to a question. Theoretically, it would seem to make sense to try and hide the Mole, especially early, by making them a choice amongst many, though of course that might not actually be true. That's pure speculation on my part. Anyhow the numbers will follow in the next post. I'll spare you the gory details for now, but may post them later on if you really want me to.

Quiz 1 uniqueness scores in order. The remaining 5 players are listed in ALL CAPS. They go from highest (least unique) to lowest (most unique).

Victoria: 54
Marcie: 51 <----------- executed
CLAY: 51
Ali: 48
MARK: 48
Kristen: 48
Bobby: 47
Alex: 46
NICOLE: 44
CRAIG: 42
Liz: 38
PAUL: 36

If they are hiding the Mole early, this would be a plus from the CLAYFOMOs. Of course, the flipside of this is if they figure it's too early for the players to suspect Paul as the Mole, maybe they'd go out on a limb and make him the most unique answer. The former does make more sense to me btw.

Quiz 2:

CLAY: 63
Ali: 62
CRAIG: 61
Victoria: 60
NICOLE: 60
Alex: 54
Bobby: 54
PAUL: 52
Liz: 51 <----------- executed
MARK: 43
Kristen: 42

Again Clay is pretty well "hidden" as is Craig and Nicole. Paul and Mark, not so much. As an aside, getting back to the issue regarding advantage on the quiz, I would have to say that the lower you are on the list, the more of an advantage you SHOULD have. You can eliminated yourself as a choice if you are a player, obviously and increase your odds. The downside to this occurs when you happen to be paired with the Mole of course (for example if Paul is the Mole, suddenly Liz sharing the pig catching duties with him probably hurts her most on the quiz, since she would be much less likely to pick the answers where it's just her and Paul.

Quiz 3:

CRAIG: 46
Kristen: 42
NICOLE: 42
Bobby: 41 <-------- executed
Victoria: 39
Ali: 38 <-------- bribed
CLAY: 38
PAUL: 38
MARK: 36
Alex: 34

Everybody's quite a bit more clumped in this episode. Mark and Paul still seem to be more unique overall and now Craig pops up as being a bit more "hidden." I'll have the special Ali analysis after I'm done with this part.

Quiz 4:

PAUL: 46
CLAY: 46
NICOLE: 44
MARK: 42
Alex: 40
CRAIG: 40
Kristen: 34
Victoria: 33 <----------- executed.

A bit of a reversal here especially with Paul blending in more than on any other quiz. Victoria couldn't take advantage of being more unique an answer on this quiz and found herself executed. The numbers are steadily decreasing so far (less players to be coincidental with).

Quiz 5:

PAUL: 27
MARK: 26
Kristen: 24 <-------------- executed
NICOLE: 24
CRAIG: 23
Alex: 22
CLAY: 22

Things radically changed in terms of the quiz answers for quiz 5. A whopping FIVE questions have a unique answer for everyone. 2 More had a 6/1 split, and 2 more had a 5/2 split. (The other question, with a 4/3 split concerned whether the Mole wore shorts or pants.) The answers in totality are clumped enough that minimal advantage seems to be at play. It's curious to ponder that maybe the players ALL actually have a bead on who the Mole is or whether they are trying to just weed out some of the pretenders who played it safe and got by to leave the game to those who have truly figured it out. Still a definite change.

Quiz 6

MARK: 25
PAUL: 25
CRAIG: 25
CLAY: 23
NICOLE: 21
Alex: 19 <------------- executed

Again there are 5 questions on the quiz that are purely unique. Even being given one answer automatically correct (Question 8 where it was asked how much the Mole put into the pot in "Swing Out". The answer was obviously $0 since Alex was the only one to put money in the pot there).

What does it all really mean? I'm not sure but I thought you'd enjoy this. Ali analysis is next

Okay so as I previously mentioned I have pondered the possibilty that Bobby may have gotten himself eliminated by gunning for Ali on at least his last quiz. Looking at his face when she took the bribe was telling, but even more telling was his apparent complete despondence when Jon told them the execution would continue. Well taking that ball and running with it a little, I pondered the question: If Bobby was gunning for Ali all the way and stayed in through the first 2 exeuctions but not the 3rd, who shared the most answers with Ali on the previous quizzes of the 5 remaining people?

Quiz 1 leaves the comical result below:
Clay: 3
Craig: 3
Mark: 3
Nicole: 3
Paul: 3

No help whatsoever there!

Quiz 2 was a different story:

Clay: 8 (!) (he shares an answer with Ali on every question but gender and who is the Mole)
Nicole: 6
Craig: 5
Mark: 4
Paul: 4

This also was a rather weird quiz in that it had many instances of essentially the same answer being asked multiple times. Questions 3 and 4 are exactly the same for all practical purposes. On the flip side Paul and Liz are lumped together on 3 questions. Since the goal is to not get eliminated - it's possible that Bobby targeted Ali and still got enough to stay in even if Mark or Paul is the Mole. Still it's interesting.

Quiz 3:

Ali Matched:
Nicole: 4
Paul: 4
Craig: 3
Mark: 2
Clay: 1

Coupled with what's shown in Quiz 2, I have to say that I have developed a talking point for the CLAYFOMOs to point to. Even if Bobby decided to start targeting Ali with just the 3rd quiz, if Clay is the Mole it's almost impossible to think that he WOULDN'T get executed. Then again, if people were playing odds, it's still totally possible that Nicole or Paul could still be the Mole at 4 - it just means everyone would need a bit higher score.

And of course I could have totally read Bobby wrong.

But I thought you'd guys would find it interesting

On to the episodes. I can't say that I found the recap episode all that compelling in and of itself, but it still brought out some food for thought. I bet the biggest spoiler of all would be to watch the Mole with an FBI interviewer who can pick up on people's truthfulness much easier than you or I can. I recall watching some year's ago (I believe on ABC's 20/20 in fact) a segment that talked about how to tell someone is lying to you. There are certain giveaways that many people let off when they are telling a lie that are rather involuntary. One of these is supposed to be that someone will raise their eyebrows when they are lying. The other that I recall is when someone's head position doesn't match what they are saying (e.g. their mouth is saying yes, but their head is shaking no).

I'm not sure that I'm reading things correctly and I didn't go into a full rewatching of the whole season but there was a little bit of this going on that intrigued me. Basically I didn't pick up much in the way of Paul and Craig on this basis to make me believe they are the Mole. (Paul seemed to raise his eyebrows when he said "I could be the Mole"). Nicole raises her eyebrows AFTER she says I am the Mole and I think I played it well (paraphrasing), though one might infer that she is the Mole but didn't think she did a good job . Mark and Clay were a little tougher for me to gauge. Mark seemed to maybe raise his eyebrows when he said he wasn't the Mole. Clay did seem to raise his eyebrows when he said "I am the Mole". As an aside the executed players all were pretty uniform when they said they weren't the Mole: in each case their head agrees with their mouth and they are shaking their head "no" as they say it. Could be all psuedoscience on my part but again I figured you might find it interesting to ponder .

Btw, for the conspiracy buffs - if I didn't point this out earlier Jon was holding 10 (pesos?) at the beginning of the Travelers challenge. Only connection I could make is that Mark has Journal 10. A clue? Maybe a stretch.

As for the episode, once again we have a real challenge in sorting things out. This group either likes to totally succeed or totally fail it seems. Every time there's been a close call it seems like it's a win. Very very challenging. Still I was happy to see how multi-faceted the Grapes of Cache challenge was. Lots of potential sabotage points make for good Mole play, especially when there is a division of labor and communications going on.

By the way I totally overanalyzed the brain tesaers, but if there's something buried in there I've yet to find it. Here's a list of the names of the people left in phone code. Maybe the answer is in there somewhere:
CLAY: 2529
MARK: 6275
PAUL: 7285
CRAIG: 27244
NICOLE: 642654 (and why not OBGYN: 62496)
MOLE: 6653

On to the meat and potatoes that is the rankings. In spite of the challenging nature of the full success and failure, there definitely was cause to shake up the rankings.

They start next..

Episode 6 Breakdown:

6) Alex. Well Alex isn't the Mole. I've at least gotten good at telling who the Mole ISN'T lately . A total of 0.2% was liberated by Alex's departure. I will point out that they have practically beat us over the head with "Alex think's Nicole is the Mole for the entire season." Part of me truly smells set up and this falls in line with something a said early about anticipating a "shock" Alex execution and then a further shock of a Nicole Mole reveal. Maybe he changed his mind about her along the way and loudly voiced his opinion she was the Mole to throw the others off? Maybe he never suspected her in the first place, again to throw the others off? On the flip side, the fact that Clay and Mark seem to want to get rid of him and do so actually on a time basis may mean that they all have zeroed in on Nicole in spite of anything said on the confession (this has occurred before - in season one when they were down to Charlie, Steven, Jim, and Katherine all three players had her pegged as the Mole). Anyway it looks like he did have one too many. Alex is definitely NOT the Mole.

5) Craig. Yep, Craig has leapfrogged down to the bottom of the rankings. He could've taken the easy way out on the challenge (heck he got a pretty good throw off). He wasn't fabulous at the puzzles, though he did get at least one of them solved so it wasn't a total bust. His demeanor does seem to be most consistent with that of a player that really does let everyone else do the work for him - that his sorta laziness is enough cover for him to play Mole, but not too hard. I just find the case for everyone else much more compelling. Craig is NOT the Mole. Mole probabilty 1% (all whole numbers this week).

4) Mark. Yes, Mark takes a big time tumble this week. If he ends up being the Mole, I think that he should be kicked out of the Mole union - it'd be practically unethical for the Mole to put $70,000 into the pot almost single handedly in the middle of the game (yeah, yeah, I know that Bill put like $100k in the pot but that was at the end and heck he might've been suspended from the Mole union for a little for that one for all I know). 55 minutes on a treadmill, probably the last half of which was a real exertion. That's a tough one to really swallow, espeically when you add in that he solved about 1/2 of the brainteasers as well while he was doing it. It was a heroic effort and it really hurts his Mole stock a lot. In the Swing Out challenge his effort, while missing the Mark, did seem to be a very game try and just a little short (by the way Craig's effort similarly seemed not all that bad ultimately). His competitiveness should be channeled to screwing up more stuff that he has if he's the Mole. But he's NOT. Mole probabilty 9%

3) Paul. PAULFOMOs rejoice! I really had just about totally counted him out but his performance in this episode made me feel the need to really take another hard look at his track record over the game. One of the hallmarks of Mole play, in my opinion, is that the Mole will work their way into crucial roles on occasion. While it's true that Craig and Nicole both chose "thinker" quickly and Mark and Alex simlarly chose "runner" in the same fashion, Paul successfully lobbied Clay into giving him a role on the talking team. He then followed up right away in getting the communicator role. It does seem a bit easy for that to have happened like that. He had a very bumpy ride in that role - did he purposely make a mistake or two initially on the coordinates? Maybe. I am not certain if there was an impact to his jumping from question 3 to 7 - that only would be the case if the bottles were to be discovered in a sorta consecutive order - that is not certain to be true. I did write down all the coordinates from the game (except question 2 - those weren't shown I don't think) so maybe I'll plot 'em out and see if I can figure it out. He also does start off with Nicole by using the eraser - there seemed to be a decent amount of time where they were fighting and not helping get wine bottles found. I can't totally discount him anymore - maybe he laid low a little bit in the middle of the game. Early on he didn't have a huge record of success (over the falls and a weak performance on the beach and in the soccer). Still, at the end of the day, I'm not sold yet - and I'll guiltily admit that maybe I did sense something in the way he gave answers that suggest he's not the Mole. Score one for QG's psuedoscience! Paul's back in the hunt, but Paul is NOT the Mole. Mole probability 15%

Oops one last pro-Paul Mole note though - that throw of his was comically bad from the bungee cord.

Anyhow...

2) Clay. I'm not quite certain that Clay really deserves this bump up This is more of a general sense than perhaps a true indicator of how I feel about his performance in this episode. Then again, it's a double-edged sword a bit. He falls into the role of runner (going against my theory that the Mole sometimes positions themselves). This was a weird task though. If the Mole were a runner, the idea would be to succeed in finding bottles early to speed up the treadmill for the timekeeper. Once 5 or 6 bottles are in tow, THEN the Molish thing would be to have trouble finding the last bottle or two, threatening failure for the task. Clay did seem to find the middle 4 bottles and possibly the last one even (though Alex was right there). I do take his suggestion of drinking the wine to Alex as a joke rather than a straight Mole play. Maybe he just thought Mark wouldn't be able to keep up in the time allotted if he's the Mole. On the bridge, Clay was comically bad even closing his eyes. I guess the thing that through me was looking at the review and when he talks about whether or not he's the Mole. It's totally possible. The fact that he was so common with Ali as an answer one week and not the next in terms of my theory on Bobby's execution is a small factor too. Still, though, Clay is NOT the Mole. Mole probability 31%

1) Nicole. Finally I can say that at least a little of my faith in my original pick has been restored! True this was a bit of an "over the top" case again, but it's totally possible she's playing the Mole that way - only the quiz answers can say for sure how on track they really are. I think it's accurate to say that she didn't get one of those questions right on her own - she only wrote down correct ones when Mark said them first. Question 1 was actually kinda comical when she said she liked plastic and it wasn't even an answer choice . I wouldn't blame the anti-Nicoles to see that as a case of trying too hard. A bigger moment came when she chose to return fire on Paul and repeatedly kept it going. Paul does get credit for starting it, but Nicole did take a lot of valuable time away from the solving by continuing it and continuing it (even putting her face in front of Craig while he was trying to do some solving in the midst of her ranting at Paul). While her form on the jump was suspiciously great, her actual throw was comically bad. My gut just tells me they are throwing the surprise curve at the end that Alex somehow got off track. Her mannerisms in terms of the analysis of her statements is actually a bit mixed. When she said "I am here to stay" in episode 3 she clearly believes it's true. Now whether that's because she's confident or because she's the Mole is certainly open to debate. I'll vote for the latter . Nicole IS the Mole (still) and finally I feel I can at least up her % a little. Mole probabilty 44%.

So there you go folks! As a final random thought I'm curious as to what would have happened if anybody had guessed closest. Were they guaranteed an exemption or would they have pulled that much out of the pot in order to get the exemption (e.g. say they had scored $30,000 - would Nicole have to take $28,000 of that $30,000 to seal the exemption deal or not?).

Have a great night Mole fans!!!
-QG

Note I'm lazily ripping this from my ABC boards post, so sorry if there's a few things that don't quite fit with one long post ;)
-QG

Episode 8 Part 1

Hi Mole fans, sorry for the delays again - that whole working during the week thing tends to wreak havoc on my ability to put out analysis any sooner. Down to the final 3. It's been a fun season of Mole hunting and I can't say again enough about how happy that ABC blessed us with a new 'real' edition of the Mole. I can only hope that somehow someway it's not the last

Wasn't it weird how they brought up the random Paul/Nicole highlight from a few episodes ago at the beginning of "previously on the Mole" before they started rolling into the episode 7 recap?

Thankfully we got a couple more challenges that yielded a variety of results - it's way tougher to evaluate what's going on when the team either completely succeeds or completely fails which has happened quite a bit this season!

The "How's the View" mission was one of the more clever ones they've had this season. Sabotage seems possible from either end of the camera and given the mixed results, it seems quite clear that there was some definite Mole action going on. It is interesting to note that initially it looks like Nicole raised her hand to be "Young at Heart" though Craig also raised his hand about a split second later. Ultimately Nicole yields to Craig's wishes and is rewarded by being his partner for the task.

The 2nd task was particularly interesting with an exemption being in play (I'm curious who would've been designated as being the "exemption" target if Craig had gotten out of his cell first - in the introduction, Jon says that one of the THREE runners has an exemption card - the shooter has no such card). It's pretty funny to think that Paul got this far in the game when you consider how long it took for him to solve the puzzle.

In terms of uniqueness of each player on the quiz, we have the following (remember a higher number is less unique):
1t) Paul 16
1t) Craig 16
1t) Mark 16
4) Nicole 14

Shared answers:

If someone went 100% for Paul they would...
get 3 right if Mark is the Mole
get 2 right if Craig is the Mole
get 1 right if Nicole is the Mole

If someone went 100% for Mark they would...
get 2 right if Craig is the Mole
get 1 right if Nicole is the Mole

If someone went 100% for Nicole they would...
get 2 right if Craig is the Mole
get 1 right if Mark is the Mole

If someone went 100% for Craig they would...
get 2 right if Nicole is the Mole
get 2 right if Mark is the Mole


Anyhow on to the rankings.

4) Paul. Paul ended up being the great player that I thought he was in the middle of the game as opposed to the prime suspect that I found him on either end of the game. All in all I think that he did bring a good approach to the game even if that meant he wasn't always particulalry likeable. And obviously he ain't the Mole.

3) Mark. MARKFOMOs you've had a good run but I would be dead solid shocked if Mark ended up being the Mole. By Mole behavior standards he did have one of his 'better' episodes in episode 8 so I'll start there and then roll into a more full review of his season. Mark makes no effort (other than a lighhearted one at the end) to be a "Young at Heart" player. His tenure as a cameraman is by and large decent - though he did seem to have a little bit of trouble with the zoom - and by and large his camera work seems to be a help to Paul. The blocks go through without incident. In the soccer deal (and if there is a mini-theme for MARKFOMOs to hang their hat on perhaps it is the soccer deal with 2 soccer-related takss in the season) Mark did what seemed to be the best straegy: set the camera up in a way that made it likely for Paul to hit a straight shot. I don't think Paul was Mole-playing here and it probably is a bit tricky to swing with the right foot while thinking you need to swing the left. They gained 5k in the tea pouring deal which probably was Mark's poorest showing on the camera. The plank walking task went pretty smoothly except for Mark missing the "THE" in the phrase initially with his camera (it also was obscured a bit by Paul's own arm). Still $18k/$32k is pretty good, especially when you look at the other team. In the paintball task, it is reasonable to think the Mole would want to become the shooter and do the most possible damage to the pot ($45k) and get cover with an exemption to boot. The thing is, it's tough to figure that a player wouldn't want to do the exact same thing at that stage of the game - I'd gladly keep $45k out of the pot for a 1/2 chance at pulling down over $300k. It is true, though, that being the shooter takes away the possibility that the Mole would potentially throw an exemption to someone which could be considered too-direct an involvement in creating that outcome. Then again that also could be remedied by the Mole simply not knowing how that exemption card would be handed out and therefore getting hit would be a 'pure' play.

Anyhow, the thing about Mark's game is that it just doesn't really seem to add up to the Mole. He definitely seems a lot more in the mode of, say, Charlie in season 1 who did very very little to lead others into thinking they were the Mole. Mark's 2 biggest would-be sabotages directly involved getting an exemption for himself. In episode one he successful grabs a bag with money. Later in that episode he is able to successfully put the only 3 "good" items available to him on the table, even when he could have easily dropped either the Bible or the musket out and cost the team $. Uphill climb was easily a self-interest play and in the pig flying game his team came back with a respectable number of pigs (18) and though his team got sidetracked, every pig did get launched. In Fruit of the Luge his was the only team that put the full $14k in the pot. He did perhaps pull a mini-sabotage in dress code by opting out but that was pretty small doings ($5k). Gold Rush saw him drop another $1k when he picked up the scale but to be fair he did drop 20 pounds to pick up 20 pounds. He got his answer right in the "Who Said That" game and while his reaction seemed pretty theatrical to the journal burning, if he is a player he probably lost more than any other player when those books burned. He puts $25k directly into the pot by not taking the exemption in "All For One". He was the ringleader in revolting against Craig's choices in the Travelers game, that is true but it's not exactly like anybody aside from Alex ever approached the starting gate (as a side note, if you figure that he strongly suspected Craig then he would have no problem from a game perspective of giving an exemption to Craig). He nearly single-handedly puts $70k into the pot by running 55 minutes or so in the Grapes of Cache game, answer most of the questions to boot. He did miss (but was close) in the Swing Out game but so did Nicole and Craig. He came through big again in the Go Figure task, correctly Clay's error and getting Paul straightened out so they could make it back in time. Ticket To Ride virtually was a non-game in the sense that it was a full success and it's doubtful the Mole would play there. Other than his "Journal 10" being featured on the abc homepage for the Mole and a green background on a statue where you could see him behind, oh and I guess an apple for the teacher, there really is incredibly little to indicate Mark being a saboteur in the game. Mark is NOT the Mole. Mole probability 0.5% (I was gonna give him 1% but that's just too much.)

Which brings us to:

2) Craig. Basically I'm in a position where my hope for being right 'all along' intersects with my genuine fear that Craig is the Mole and I really have just been missing it. Unlike with Mark, I would not be surprised if Craig ended up being the Mole at this point. In fact no small part of me kind of expects it. This time around I'll leave the episode 8 bits until the end as I build up the case that the CRAIGFOMOs have and it is a pretty good one. In episode one on the first game Craig fails (valiantly) to get a bag - now there's part of me that doesn't see this as 'pure' sabotage because I think of the 5 players who missed (4 of whom had bags with money) I think Craig is definitely the most likely to NOT have been chosen to jump for money by Marcie (Paul, Alex, Victoria, and Ali were the others who missed). But he never does seem to finish his wrapping his arms around that bag either way. In "Crusoe" he really did do nothing (other than waste time by dragging over the Mole sign -- actually that'd be kinda cheeky for the Mole to do) so it's fair to think something may have been up there though running around isn't exactly his strength. He volunteers for Uphill Climb right AFTER Liz puts her hand up (and he does see her do it) - now if he turns out to be the Mole this would be one of the things that threw me off. I don't really envision him and Liz even getting to that half-way point where Jon was before the soccer players (with a coach who probably couldn't have hurt to have on there) made it up to the top. Of course we don't really know how far up Jon was so it is difficult to gauge. On the soccer field he did nothing again though he did score on Bobby in a play that is pretty darn inexplicable. In the pig tossing game he did something that does seem right out of the Mole handbook for slick plays and it is genius if he is the Mole: it is in fact Craig who suggests that Bobby get in the wheelbarrow. While it's true that he'd be an "anchor" anyway, I have a hard time believing that they were faster having to push Bobby around. Still Craig did have a positive effect in this game by helping get Alex's pig launching straightened out - something that seemed a bit on the less than Moley side and did put something positive in the pot. In Fruit of the Luge it is pretty suspect that he kept talking with Victoria far after the finish line. While blame could be jointly shared by Victoria, it is Craig after all who can see where the finish line is and thus was in a better spot to screw that up 'innocently'. By the way while I've noted Green Apple could point to Mark (the teacher) or Nicole (an apple a day keeps the Mole away) it could actually be even something more subtle and simple. After all Craig is a "G raphic A rtist". It does also seem just oblique enough that the players couldn't see it while it was going on but that could be called upon as a legit hidden clue for the audience. In the Dress Code game, Craig does play the "hero" by discovering the clothes, though it should be noted that 1) he always seemed to have the card with the address - and code - in his hand and thus kept it away from the others and 2) all the other players were dressed when he gets all the clothes, essentially his "heroism" only resulted in 5k extra going in the pot while givin ghim some cover as a player.

In the next episode, Midas Rush does seem to indicate more Craig heroism as he battles the thin air to make it up the hill. Still this effort was on a task that netted only $15k (after Jon's bump up) for the team (saying that game was for $50k was ridiculous btw - there's no way that each of them could carry 25 bricks!). As for the medical emergency? That's actually plausible under the circumstances, though if he's the Mole it actually would serve to strengthen his position. Staying inside while the others played the Who Said That game and getting their journals burned while possibly conferring with the producers on the upcoming games does seem plausible. Technically I guess his absence in the Who Said That game could be called a $2k sabotage as well I guess.

The All For One mission has Craig leaving right away to get out of the cold (if his medical scare is real that becomes a mandatory play) but it also does kind of put him back on a good faith footing and again could show the others he's a player. If he's the Mole, his approach would not be conducive to sabotaging this game at this point - he's been low key and in the background and "All For One" was a more in-your-face interpersonal game. Plus, of course if he knew the fix was in for the next game with his "exemption-worthy" comment then he can easily take that mission off. It's reasonable. I can say that the revolt in "Travelers" where Mark was a ringleader, Nicole was a loud protester and Paul was also a loud protester does fit if THEY are players as all can take a free shot at looking suspicious while avoiding an essentially impossible task and giving their suspected Mole an exemption. That does fit. PS - Yeah Yeah I know I forgot to mention the CRG graffiti in the cell

With the next episode, Craig basically was not very helpful in Grapes of Cache. I felt his cause was a bit hurt I guess by the fact that this was such a success anyway. It was a weird task. Basically the early rounds could go pretty much forever - Mark is walking after all. I guess a good Mole plan would be to answer a bunch early and then screw up the last 2 or so to put Mark at running pace for as long as possible. I guess. But it's tough to see a full on sabotage here from Craig. On the jump, I can't say he'd be expected to succeed, though his throw did appear to be pretty random (though it was kinda close actually). In the Smart/Dumb task Nicole is right in the sense that it did seem that Craig tried to screw up the whole 55/56 thing (though to be fair he seemed to correct some Nicole bad math later - or was he reinforcing it?). Nicole did have 238 btw and Craig did persuade her to have it as 228 - thus it's conceivable that if Nicole's original answer were used they'd only be one number off - it is possible a Mole Craig would do this on purpose. He really did screw with Clay at the end of the task (232? no it's 233 Craig. 231?) before keying in the right number - was he just messin' or was that a last ditch sabotage effort? Ticket to Ride was basically a pass as I said earlier, though it is true nobody picked him as a person to trust.

So on to this episode. Man did Craig mess up a lot with Nicole as his eyes! Nicole did mess up by answering Craig's question, though Craig asked a question that was designed to be answered as opposed to merely trying to direct Nicole. In the soccer part, he swings wildly on his 2nd kick then sort of immediately pivoted himself before kicking the ball a mile away. He bumps the table in the tea-pouring and then plays hide the chalk and walks achingly slow on the plank. If he's the Mole, Nicole's right and he Mooed it up a lot. In the 2nd game maybe Craig really was supposed to get out first and be the shooter, but I'm not sure if it's editing where he seems to yell "Go! Go!" right when Paul gets onto the field (bringing attention to Paul) or not. He gets near the end of the course but it looked like he got pegged pretty easily when he did get hit. Now, the thing is that would the Mole allow a player to get an exemption that late in the game? (Even one he said was on the side of 'good'?) I'm not so sure, though of course maybe he didn't know he had the card.

So there's your case CRAIGFOMOs. And I do have to say while I didn't really put these all together until this late juncture it's pretty persuasive. BUT...part of me says I've come too far to be switching...and another part of me remembers season one where I all but got off the Kathryn bandwagon at the end and stuck it out almost in spite of myself then...and it's not like there's no case for Nicole over the course of the game, because there still is. So while I can't say I'd be surprised if he is, I'll still say that Craig is NOT the Mole. Mole probability 48.5%

1) Which brings us to Nicole. It's kinda funny because the moment that Paul got knocked out I was thinking "Man, I can finally put a high percentage up there with Nicole this feels good" but as is now pretty evident that's not the case. But, still there is a case for Nicole. She did succeed in getting a bag at the start (with no $ in it) but task 1 isn't always a sabotage by it's very nature. The beach deal still is really really suspect in the sense that Jon asked a question ("who's the biggest whiner") that seemed to have exactly one answer at this point ("Nicole"). This has been a tough hurdle to overcome for me in considering others - it really is a pretty neat set up. (Now I will say that a piece of Craig logic would say that Craig's behavior prior to that message was that of good sport - that is it'd be impossible for HIM to get selected as "Whiner" and thus ensure he could have a role in the Crusoe game and get to Mole some things up but I digress). Mathematically the 1st exemption seems of little value (you only have a 1/11 chance of getting eliminated) but it's tough to think that one PLAYER would get that edge. Now one thing that goes against is the fact that she didn't whine until she knew she was outside - something she couldn't control - but of course the criteria may have changed or she would've found a way to whine or annoy the others even if she was placed inside.

Anyhow, in Race to the Summit, Nicole does first suggest the good runners be the Uphill Climb team instead of Craig and Liz. She then proceeds to play a pretty horrible goalie in the task itself. She does board the 1st gondola (not necessarily Molish) though one thing I don't think I noted before but must be clear is that Mark and Kristen must have beaten EVERYONE to the top of the hill since they were invited to come out after the others all were there (it's hard to believe the Gondola 1 people showed, then somehow Mark and Kristen slipped in). It's plausible that she knew the time on the soccer field was enough of a delay - no further molishness needed. In the pig catching game she was on Alex's crew which basically meant they were automatically going to get a bunch of pigs due to his spanish speaking. She did help launch pigs in what a fairly successful effort, though things were going worse with her launching before Craig showed up and improved things.

Fruit of the Luge (and again of course this hidden clue sponsored by Apple) - Nicole specifically integrates the Green Apple into the sabotage itself by double speaking it to Alex (now some might think they both planned it - i.e. that Alex/Nicole has an actual coalition that wasn't shown and that he never was picking her but just trying to mislead others - another reasonable thing but I digress again). As an "out front" Mole it's a reasonable sabotage. Even if she's not the Mole, there's a part of me that thinks this type of a Mole would be kinda cool - the "I'm Trying So Hard to Act Like The Mole I Can't Be The Mole" Mole. Real $ came out as a result of Nicole's messing Alex up. In the Dress Code task she does succeed in getting clothing, that is true, so that does kind go against her case.

In Midas Rush Nicole does a small sabotage in the sense of taking like only 4 or 5 bricks (I think Kristen supposedly took 12) and dawdling a bit (though they make it). She backs Kristen at first but jumps to see Clay's point about never having an exemption. There is no breakdown though so it's hard to say something happened there. In Who Said That there is definitely some obvious sabotage by her in failing to answer correctly and also being over the top in giving away the answer to Kristen - is $4k really a lot in terms of sabotage? I'm not so sure.

In All For One, Nicole doesn't do much outside of briefly protesting Kristen's desire to get out second but doesn't do much more than that. She does say in a confessional "I wouldn't have let a single soul out if it was up to me" - of course if she's the Mole, it might not really be up to her, right?

In Travelers she does protest Craig's choices loudly at the start (before Mark's ringleadership occurs) and does have no problem with opting out, though Mole's should lead such things more than follow it's true.

With the Grapes of Cache game though, there does seem to be something up with Nicole for sure. Laughably on question one she initially supports and answer that's not even one of the choices (though some would say a play-Mole was trying too hard there). She only really seems to solve one answer (that weird ABC puzzle) and is pretty much useless on the other ones by and large. She picks a fight with Paul and keeps it going and going which was the one true case of something happening that really served to add more to Mark's burden (since Paul was answering back with her rather than working on giving out coordinates). In the Swing Out game she shows great form on the jump and ridiculously horrible inaccuracy in the throw being way way off target.

By the way somewhere in the midst of this - perhaps at the start of Grapes of Cache we see a sign for "Winery" - perhaps a clue for Dr. Whiner? Okay maybe that's a stretch.

In the Go Figure game she seems to do fine with Craig even correcting him until the last number is done. She does come back with a ludicrous answer of 227 on the do-over which is certainly on the suspicious side. Ticket to Ride was a freebie - now she did go last and preferred not to have Clay in a position of "3" votes saying she didn't want him to do too much - now possibly she could be tipping she knew the task though it's just as possible that a player would want to spread things out. The theatrics of her supposed self-execution are pretty over the top and frankly if she were the Mole it would seem to serve as a great cover by seeming to want out. She has been doing a lot of the "I'm Gone" thing of late that is for sure. Is that a way to cover her as the Mole, or is it a way to dramatically show how the "Whiner" turned to "Winner" - tough to say.

In this week's episode she's on the flipside of the Craig equation. She doesn't seem to do a very good job on the camera actually (Craig's hands are big, but they really shouldn't take up the whole camera). Shaking the camera around to say stop?!? That is a weird strategy for sure - I think that would make a mistake MORE likely. Oh and of course I forgot the fact that she did answer Craig - if Craig's a player that would be a great test to throw at the Mole to shore up your suspicions.

In the paintball task, Nicole names her cell right away. Now the one thing that helps the Mole case here is that if the Mole DOES know what cell number WON'T be designated for the exemption she can ensure that she gets it and thus leave the exemption amongst the players (A "Fairer" situation). The sabotage is straighforward - getting pegged when you just about have made it out totally seems to make sense.

So there you go. There is still a case out there for Nicole. It's become tougher to stick it out but I've come this far so I think I have to now, right? Nicole IS the Mole. Mole probability 51%.


A few thoughts that haven't been dropped elsewhere in this one.

The lie-detecting stuff in terms of reading their face when they answer is still pretty interesting. Craig's is really tough - his eyebrows do not move very obviously so that's a pretty tough call. In the recap episode he says he's not the Mole but he's nodding his head yes (which would seem to say he IS the Mole). Similarly though, in the last episode when Nicole says she's not the Mole she Raises her eyebrows (A sign of a lie) and doesn't shake her head no.

I'm curious if it turns out to be Craig whether or not they've actually had him pegged for a while. Mark has proffered Craig AND Nicole, sorta pushing Nicole to Clay but at a certain time you gotta cut your buddy loose and I'm wondering if that's what that was. Paul was being consistent when he said Craig was his leading suspect all along (he says so in Ep. 1 as well) - now he got eliminated on a non-tie-breaker but it's plausible that Question 6 screwed him up (it's the only one I've seen that lists the players Right to Left). Btw, this does seem to be the type of question that goes beyond the question of who the Mole is and more so gets into the observant part I'd say. Alex getting eliminated would seem to blow up Nicole (and really might) but what if he either was throwing that out as a fake (and truly suspected Craig) or switched somehow before that quiz where he was knocked out?

Craig didn't seem to react at all to Mark getting the exemption btw which was kinda weird.

Craig has never had his name entered into the computer. That also is kinda weird.

Nicole did offer a wacky 5-letter theory pointing to Bobby way back in episode 3. Craig does sorta have 5 letters.

Okay I've gotten into pretty minute stuff now I guess. Should be a fun one this week (I'm assuming this week will be a Cliffhanger with a How the Mole did it next week - at least I hope so as that'd be more fun).

Cheers everyone! And thanks for the page views
-QG