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Hi everybody, sorry this is all a lump of text, I haven't figured out how to get things lined up properly yet. It looked great until I previewed it. Top 24: Jason Castro - the worst of the 21 singers we've heard. Jason Yeager - no screen time/based on appearance and boyband past, most likely to go of the 3 guys we haven't heard. Alexandrea "the lush" Lushington - worst of the 4 black women; easily mixed up with Asiah Epperson. Brooke White - easily the worst of the 4 Carrie clones, screwed up in hollywood round & will again. Top 20: Robbie Carrico - not particularly good, lots of hispanic guys this year. Garrett Haley - no screen time, neutral personal impression and looks, classic 2nd week semifinal elimination type. Amy Davis - only okay, but will survive 1st week since there are only two brunettes. Asiah Epperson - not very good, and people of tired of sob stories. Top 16: David Hernandez - very good singer with no stage presence; after the season people will say he belonged in the top 12. Colton Berry (curse of the last person picked just missing the top 12 will strike again. Kristy Lee KooK - KKKonfederate flag will KKKatch up with her; not as good as 2 other Carrie clones. Amanda Overmyer - punk rocker is refreshing but doesn't seem as good as Gina. Or Ryan. Or Nikki. 12. Joanne Borgella - forgets lyrics, or something. Might have gone further in some seasons. 11. Luke Menard - hunk but with no screen time; Jason Yeager or Garrett Haley will take this spot if they have a better voice. 10. Danny Noriega - SHOCKER ELIMINATION! He goes after splitting the tween vote with less gay seeming (but still gay) David Archuleta. Really good voice, but sure to freeze up/make a stupid song choice/do something else to screw up to get much further than this. 9. Alaina Whitaker - AI hasn't had 3 white women get this far since the first season. It does this year, barely. 8. Chakezie Eze - done in by country night? Somewhat slimmer Reuben-type (and just as good as Reuben) is overly criticized by the judges, who've seen the sales figures for Reuben's 2nd and 3rd CDs. 7. Syesha Mercado - Nadia Turner clone avoids stupid mistakes & gets one week further in a stronger group. 6. David Lee Cook - mediocre Daughtry clone is overpraised by judges because they think he'd sell well if he won, incorrectly. SUCKsters will go wild when he and David Archuleta are eliminated 5. Carly Smithson - dislike of an immigrant winning overcomes professional quality (gee, I wonder why??) singing; could go considerably earlier than this if her first time in the bottom 3 leads to a downhill spiral a la Julia Demato or Lisa Tucker. 4. David Archuleta - this season's Sanjaya. By the time top 20 week is done the judges will realize they shouldn't have picked him at all. I really, really hope he goes much sooner than this!! 3. Michael Johns - SHOCKER ELIMINATION! With one unanimously (and deservedly) praised guy never in the bottom three and 2 slightly flawed women who had been, who'd anticipate this (besides the people at sucks, of course... 2. Kady Malloy - best of the Carrie clones, and she does come in 2nd like we all thought Carrie would do, losing to... 1. Ramielle Mulaby - who'd a thunk it? Well, some of us have! Picked for a sure third place after Carly's elimination, this improved version of Jasmine has what it takes and give Idol it's first asian-american winner! Second guessing myself (weaseling) time: Where could this scenario go really wrong? Well, everywhere actually but the wild card is the 3 guys we haven't heard. I definitely think the 2 weaker ones will go in the semi-finals, but if the third one is really good he could go a lot further than 11th, the "Stephanie" spot. Luke and Garrett certainly LOOK like winners. Based on voices Davids Hernandez and Archuleta should probably switch places, but somebody I hate always goes a looooong way (in the 3rd season, all the way to the winner's spot). Alaina is somewhat interchangable with both Kristy and Katy; I'm sure Katy will make the finals and Kristy will NOT get very far into the top 10 if she does make the finals, but Alaina I'm nowhere near as sure of so I put her in the middle. I still remember how during the 4th season Nadia went fast and Vonzell got to the top 3, exactly backwards from what everybody expected. That could happen here. Alaina really does look and sound incredibly like Carrie (the other Carrie "clones" don't), and that will probably not wear very well unless she does something well that Carrie didn't (stage presence is about the only thing I can think of). Some of the top 20 people everybody assumes will go fast might blossom; I think Amy Davis has at least a little chance of making the top 12, even though most people think she'll go in the first week of the semis. Of the people I've picked for the top 10, I think Chakezie and Carly are the most likely to do something awful and not make it to the top 12 at all.