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Well, it really IS ironic--if true--that both of the F2 were last-minute replacements.

>:-(

The Showmance alliance is never formed. Ami/Eliza still hook up, Jonathan/Yau still hook up. Whether the two pairs form the dream favorites alliance when there is no longer such an urgent necessity to do so is debatable. Regardless, Candice is probably targeted for much the same reasons Parvati was, while Cirie is still very much looking for a way to eliminate Yau-Man. Fairplay drops at the first TC, challenge results probably stay the same, and Cirie likely does not have the numbers to get rid of Yau at TC #3. Courtney is a potential challenge liability, while Candice likely has an in with Ami. I don't see Jonathan/Yau having the positioning needed to orchestrate Candice's boot, so Courtney leaves as a compromise. Tribal shuffle results in the following picks:
Natalie - James - Alexis - Jonathan - Jason - Yau-Man - Kathy - Eliza
Ozzy - Joel - Candice - Erik - Ami - Tracy - Cirie - Chet
Eliza leads to a puzzle victory, Joel is still blindsided because the Favorites would still find themselves sticking together (just Ozzy is slightly more alienated and at risk than he otherwise would be). Jonathan leaves due to his injury. James carries his tribe to another IC win, Chet quits. Kathy quits, assuming Yau doesn't keep her spirits up. Tracy attempts a coup against Ozzy, but this time, she's got a willing Candice on her side, and the plan is nowhere near as convoluted or difficult to pull. Ozzy potentially plays the HII, but we'll assume he doesn't thanks to a little Ami/Cirie assurance, and he goes pre-merge. At the IC, Erik is spared due to the EI twist (at which point he probably finds the idol), and at the TC, the women are forced to turn on each other, resulting in Tracy going home as a Fan.
Going into the merge, the females of Malakal have the choice of taking in Natalie/Alexis, which is highly unlikely, or using the Yau/Eliza faction, both of whom would be looking for a place to take cover and both of whom Ami will have connections with. Cirie is probably uncomfortable with such an alliance, but being as her only other option is to team up with the Fans, she sticks with her girls (and Yau). Jason's the target as an outcast, but he wins the IC, and Erik becomes the next biggest threat. His idol is played, however, and Ami finds herself blindsided as the leader of the Favorites alliance.
At this point, Alexis/Natalie are looking for a nice, stable alliance that doesn't include men like Jason or Erik. James probably has a hook-up with those women. Jason and Erik are outcasts, as challenge threats (but also don't really get along). Yau/Eliza/Candice are scrambling, while Cirie begins looking for a way to climb to the top. Much depends on the HII, so we'll play out the F9 RC, including the pick-'em.
Jason - Erik - Yau-Man - Candice
Natalie - James - Alexis - Eliza
Cirie goes to EI. I doubt she manages to find both the underwater and underground clues (especially with the storm she had), so she is not made aware the new idol can be found at her camp. Jason's team wins the RC, and both guys try to work Yau/Candice on the trip. Back at camp, the Alexis/Natalie/James trio similarly work on Eliza. At the IC, Jason wins, as he's not the obvious boot anymore and there's no "winning back friends" that plays into his head. Natalie is easily able to get Jason on her side, and they try to make sure they can get Erik. He's reluctant, but Cirie pushes for Yau to go and Yau-Man becomes the boot as no counter-alliance can really be formed. Eliza is livid.
At F8, Natalie sends Eliza, the new outcast, off to Exile Island. Eliza solves the clues, and now has the HII going back into camp. Erik wins the IC. The game is at an interesting point, because Eliza is enough of a strategist to make something happen for her. James knows Alexis/Natalie are a tight pair, but he's also very loyal. They have Jason with them, because he's an idiot. Erik is willing to flop, Candice is willing to work something, even though she may get along with the two female Fans. Cirie is obviously in a spot to listen to new ideas. So Eliza makes a play with her idol, and gets a tie vote going that results in Jason going home, idoled out before any rocks are drawn.
My guess is Candice wins the F7 RC. She sends Alexis to Exile Island. James is evacuated, again right after he's been thrown into the minority. Erik is again the last man standing, which leads to him again winning Immunity. I'm assuming on a clear day and with the tradition the HII clues established this season, Alexis finds the idol. I completely see her using it to get Candice and Cirie on her side, resulting in Eliza going home.
Come F5, Erik is an outsider, but his IC win results in him netting his safety. The female coalition is in effect, and Cirie/Natalie pull their trick. Erik leaves.
Candice is much closer to Alexis and Natalie than Cirie is, and Cirie leaves at Final 4, because there's no way she'd win the IC. I know I'm kind of underestimating Cirie in this scenario, but I don't want to make the mistake of giving her so much credit that I have her making huge, over-the-top moves that we've never seen anyone really pull before.
F2 shocker! Candice has a 1-in-3 shot at winning Immunity, which means the probable outcome is she loses, and Natalie/Alexis become our F2.
Alexis is a better speaker, she's more likely to win votes from jurors like James and Erik, and Natalie is a complete raving bitch by this point. So Alexis wins S16. *Yawn*