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A few general comments on recent dicsussion.

To gr, Scout said in the Vanuatu DVD commentary she was planning to vote for Chris until Final TC exposed enough to her to change her mind. She went into it very upset with Twila's treatment of everyone late in the game. However, yes, the edit would indicate she and Twila were frick and frack. But really, even that isn't worth speculation jury votes. Jenn for Tom, Christy for Jenna, etc. The only thing important is seeing who is deemed a juror and who makes the end. The best case for Courtney is she seemed destined to face the jury, not join them.

CL is numero uno with me. I honestly feel that Courtney's episode 1 temple scene was something un-recoverable, because it wasn't just the event, but the confessional that adds to it about her opinion of her tribemates, etc. It set up her arc, the outsider who goes in clueless, but is that really something to be shown in a winner's edit? It could have been. I never forget that. I felt no, but on that alone, Courtney was not eliminated. I just personally couldn't get past it.

I respect CL's approach, looking for the story and the loose ends. I do that too, I just mix in my interpretation of the numbers and will let them influence me. The OTT/UTR/OTT/UTR pattern to Courtney was my reason for writing her off. That didn't seem tended to the same way winners are. It was throwing it cute moments and then a game moment, then ignoring her for too long. But I was fully prepared to allow CL to laugh at me. Wouldn't be the first time, but dammit, Kevin was all set to beat Judith! I saw it from day one...

I simply approached Todd with the best eyes I could. I've seen Candice, a nice, charismatic, affable person be edited into the mutineer who deserved to be exiled. So many complained that people were so rough on sweet Candice, yada yada, but the intent was very clear. No way were the Aitu 4 doing anything but given her what the audience agreed with, her just desserts. Continually sending her to ExIsle - It's not N if the audience wants it, can be petty if it's "underdog Terry" being bashed by crazy Casaya. Too many get into Tone looking at the event. The important thing is the context of the edit.

That applied heavily to Todd and PG. PG kept saying afte a scene that she shouldn't have done the thing she just did. That makes her look worse than just seeing the event. Todd got to expound on eating at an IC, for being proud if he lost to the one woman he did stick with, etc. multiplied.

And Jean-Robert - I watched him many times. I did feel like I knew exactly what he'd do. I saw his interviews after his boot, every one saying, "I hope Todd doesn't win," and I knew he voted for Todd. Knew it. Could I have been wrong? Sure. But I felt very strongly about how he was shown, the "mastermind without a clue." When they show his last vote in the finale, and he can't figure out the cap end of the pen, it was complete, he never had a clue, smart as he wanted to be.

With James, it was clearly the intent to make him somewhat heroic who never quits, invincible with all the power, but unable to be social. He was never a brutal jerk in the vein of Dave, but he was displayed with the social cluelessness to clue in the audience that a good strategic alliance, ie good Survivor players, can get past him.

With Amanda, they showed the game called out on her at Final TC. Same with Todd. Same with Courtney. I spend a lot of my Edgic time to guess what the Final TC issues are. I'm right sometimes, wrong often. But it's less who votes for who, a waste of time, then figuring out the threads. Was Todd overplaying? Was Courtney able to stop being the undeserving disrepectful winning personality? Those were obvious ones. Then it's looking at those edits and applying what I can.

In looking back, at the merge, Todd was too visible. By the finale, his rating and tone were supposed to be wrong. Every aspect of his edit got a viewpoint from some that didn't indicate what it should have. Since I saw him as a winner, the last couple weeks I tried to figure out why. I just felt differently than some, no great shakes. I will keep my eye on "high" and "low" visibility at the merge. I looked back at Guat and saw at the merge, unless I read the wrong page, that Steph was the number one most visible player to date. That's different than Todd being 5 out of 16. Guat was a different problem with Danni, but Steph was rightfully discarded early, and I brought her back in error.

But Tone? Aras was a jackass, and at the end he was proud about his actions? Well, yes and yes. And he won. There was plenty else to show he was tended to. With Todd, it was there, letting him off the hook, and only him, about the TC eating. Being a munchkin. The smiling with Jaime after JR was voted out (that actually paid off!), explaining his sister and that he wasn't Fairplay. Why all that work if he simply got his Boston Rob comeuppance? That was my thought process. He had real game and manipulated doubt.

It'll be tougher in Micronesia. I still wonder how to approach it.

I had a great week, took my daughter to Chuck E Cheese and she wanted me to have her last token (she calls them quarters) because I was so nice to her I "earn it". :-) Happy Dad! Happy Dad! Have a great New Year's, those who celebrate it. After Thanksgiving, I assume Canada celebrated New Year's in December, right? :-)

Michael

GF, thank you for the update on the chart. I took the liberty of borrowing it and trimming it. Edgic's goal is to nail the winner by the merge. It can be debated about it being 6 episodes normally, waiting for the merge, or having it be a surprise like Brad or a fake merge like Shii-Ann. PD aspired and can usually do it after 5 eps, but he is other-worldly!

But allowing some debate on a couple of seasons for the exact time, for those who like numbers, here are the winners at the time of their merge - when we should be able to call the winner - as a reference without the rest of the post merge stuff. Do you see any overall patterns, recent pattern, anomalies, in your opinion?

Michael

One thing that I did notice about the winner's pre-merge edits - regardless of their "overall" rating, every winner has gotten a CP episode except...surprisingly, Sandra. I admit, I need to rewatch episode one of PI because I recall her speaking Spanish, saving the tribe, making some comments, but it was put through Edgic twice and she never got a CP pre-merge either time, so there's that. But even Danni, even Amber, even Vecepia, gets that one early episode with insight to them. Amanda got that this season, so did PG, no surprise that they stayed viable along with Todd to many. It matters not whether they get any particular Tone, nor is a 5 visibility a killer. The "episode 1 visibility of at least 2" is holding up.

I know that chart must be based on a revised PI. When EI came out, Aras was the first winner (from Thailand on, "live" Edgic, I considered) to get a P and N both pre-merge when I followed things as Tonedog. Notably the only winner to never get any Tone other than neutral pre-merge is...Todd! You can stump your friends with that one. In retrospect, Todd's MOR3/MOR2 was a "cooldown." I think the concept of "cool down" is a little suspect. As long as you trend toward the middle of rating, tone and visibility, you are cooled down enough.

It's always more than numbers, of course. Applying logic to what you saw is always key. I am less concerned about missing an UTR winner now, Amanda showed we'll look for it, even if we look a bit too hard. I think the ultimate shock would be an OTT winner, which even by the current guidelines would be a disaster for Edgic. I don't see that happening, but with Micronesia, I'm very cautious about rating the Favorites, since prior edits and fan opinions can cloud the editing choices made for them. We'll see.

Michael

unknown, there have been quite a few thought it's not "common". But ratings are exclusive from visibility. The most recent, unless there is one from this season I missed, was Cassandra in the Stacy boot when Yau Man played the idol. Cassandra explained why booting YM made sense, how it helped her position, CP, and was only a 2 in visibility.

Michael