S-15 Edgic (editing and logic)

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fat little fingers	S-15 Edgic (editing and logic)	Lead	[-]
Posts: 4854 (09/16/07 3:00 PM) Registered User Reply Quote More Recent Posts Message Connection Block Invite	Welcome to Edgic for Survivor 15 - China. We devote this thread to try and pick the winner (hopefully by or before the merge) by looking at the editing, player by player, and applying logic from past editing patterns or observations about what we have been shown. How Edgic Works Everyone is welcome to participate, so for anyone new who wants to jump on board here is generally how it goes: After watching each episode posters rate the players: Step 1: Ratings: OTT, CP, MOR, UTR and INV OTT (over the top) CP (complex personality) MOR (middle of the road) UTR (under the radar) INV (Invisible) Step 2: Tone: NN, N, neutral (no tone), P, PP (Rate players from Really Negative to Really Positive) * M (Mixed) This is a special Tone designation. It is used when a player has both negative and positive scenes in one episode. It helps differentiate from the "nothing" (neutral) tone of a neglected character. It shows active manipulation of a character, rather than a passive or neglected edit. Step 3: Visibility: 1-5 (From 1 or low visibility to 5 or high visibility) Comprehensive Guidelines and Charting: Below in Warrior's next two posts are the more detailed comprehensive guidelines we use, and some charts that will come in handy for analysis. Visibility Charts (Warrior) are next. Strategy (MasterDarkNinja) and Second Person Visibility (scepticA) charts come in the next two posts. Watchdog Reports on Individual Players: Following Strategy and SPV are posts from Individual Watchdogs (WDs). A Watchdog makes a special effort to study a specific player. These posts offer links to their reports made each episode. Old Edgic Threads Old Edgic threads are in the "Survivor Attic", if you would like to read-up on past seasons (note - not all seasons were saved and some seasons are out of order.) Voting Once there seems to be a general consensus of trust in your participation,(in understanding how Edgic works and your positive participation), simply pm chaperone or me, fat little fingers, and ask for the voting site address. Special Note: Newbies, though you don't have the official voting site, your ratings (and especially your reasons for them) are appreciated and can contribute greatly to the Edgic outcome. New posters are welcomed and encouraged. New ideas and fresh eyes are good for Edgic. This thread has always been flame-free and we also strive to keep it spoiler-free. That should not change for this season. flf* Last Edited By: fat little fingers 09/16/07 3:06 PM. Edited 1 time.
Warrior		#1	[-]
Posts: 2196 (09/16/07 3:02 PM) Registered User Reply Quote More Recent Posts Message Connection Block Invite	Edgic Guidelines Observations (In new order) 1) The winner may have ups and downs, but is typically not too UTR/INV or too OTT. 2) The winner will typically have a fair amount of meaningful editing and typically won't be ignored in long stretches. 3) Typically the winner is not overly Positive or Negative. 4) The winner is very unlikely to receive an INV rating during the course of the season, and will likely receive at least a 2 visibility in Episode 1. 5) Over the course of the game the winner's presence and visibility should end up closer to the average of all the players. (The winner typically gravitates to near the top in MOR differential, which calculates the closeness to average in presence, tone and ratings). 6) Typically the winner is surrounded by players who keep our focus to distract us from the winner. These players are often OTT and much of the complexity and strategy centers in this core group. This core group can be a combination of members of more than one complex group, rather than all being from one, original tribe. .....old 5) The tribe (or the core group that will surround a surprise winner) that has the most complex dynamics and strategy usually contains the winner. .....old 6) Typically the winner is surrounded by the player/s receiving the distracting edit. 7) The winner will have substantial comments/insight from many of the jury members that may resurface in front of the jury or mislead the audience on voting. 8) The ending is typically set up to be a somewhat of a 'surprise'. You either don't expect the winner or second place to be there. These two are often manipulated in the editing to make each look like they have a chance to win. 9) If two people are a 'known final pair' then the likelihood of them actually being the final two is slim. It would need to be a situation that cannot be avoided (i.e. Amber/Rob) Complex tribe: 1) Complex tribe has nothing to do with strategy -the average person doesn't care. It has to do with dangling, loose ends -anxious for us to revisit. 2) Complex tribe gets the most focus pre-merge. 3) In theory, the reason the tribe seems complex, is because the focus may be surrounding the winner or final core players. Ratings INV - Invisible 1) Irrelevant, no confessionals or tribal council questions in the early episodes, little or no confessionals or tribal council questions in the mid to late episodes. 2) The player's editing was insignificant to any character development. UTR - Under the radar 1) UTR means a character that is either underutilized or deliberately hidden (the trick is figuring out which). In story terms, they are kept out of focus. An UTR edit means the player may be seen, but they aren't seen doing or saying anything of major significance. Since showcasing players who do nothing isn't very entertaining, UTR edits do tend toward low visibility, but that needn't be the case. 2) Players who receive significant face time, but little to no speaking time. 3) The UTR Edit within an episode will typically be void of direct conflicts and character insight. 4) If the player gets some significant screen time, but doesn't do anything special, then you rate it UTR. MOR - Middle of the road 1) MOR means something between UTR, CP, and OTT. They say and do enough to avoid UTR, but they're not emphasized caricatures or developed personalities. This is a holding episode for characters who could be CP, but the story didn't particularly involve them, or for normally UTR characters who couldn't escape inclusion in the story. As such, winners are often portrayed as MOR at some point in the story. However, a consistently MOR edit is not a good thing because these characters are more just kind of there. 2) Someone who gets an odd positive and negative mix, but not in an Over the Top manner. 3) If the player did something that you feel makes them better that UTR, but not enough to qualify for CP, then you rate MOR. 4) MOR can be used to describe characters who were mostly UTR with a fair amount of CP. CP - Complex personality 1) CP means a character that is well-developed. Their editing has depth to it, and their choices are presented to the audience so that we get an insight into their thinking. We generally see their strengths and flaws. Not too surprisingly, these are the major players in the course of the game, and it is their choices that shape the story. 2) CP shows complexity of thought about the game, and or complex emotions that might be construed as Positive or Negative. "Players" like Brian, Shii Ann, Jeff Varner, or Chris, during the normal course of their editing, would in my mind be complex because they were always in the game. and many of their edits related directly to the strategic maneuvering in their tribe (successful or not). 3) Someone who expresses internal conflict over a situation, someone who expresses a "deep" or turbulent emotion like remorse, loneliness, or betrayal expressed intelligently and not like "You're a liar, T!;" someone who demonstrates a complex strategy or bold strategic move and their reasoning for it. There has to be something shown in interviews that contradicts what we've seen or adds conflict to the scenario. 4) If the player gets quality screen time and is either shown multiple times being strategic or shows a multi-dimensional side, then you go with CP. OTT - Over the top 1) OTT means a character that is being characterized or simplified. In story terms, they are the villains and heroes, the ones we love to love or hate. A consistently OTT character is presented as a distraction to the other players. Of course, not all OTT players stay that way, and often an OTT player will go UTR for awhile if the editors want to bring them back to the main storyline as a more well-rounded character. Contrasting OTT edits in the same player (OTTN v. OTTP) generally mean a more complex edit over the course of the show. 2) OTT players are generally always edited in a Positive or Negative light. 3) A mixture of positive and negative editing ends up being neutral overall. 4) Usually lacking in strategy, or strategy not expressed with much internal conflict - but they can have lots and lots of conflict with other people; no remorse if N and no "evil" strategizing if P - only focusing on loyalty or saving one's own skin Tone PP) Extremely positive. P) Positive. No rating Static neutral M) Dynamic Mixed neutral - If you think someone was noticibly P AND N within one episode. N) Negative. NN) Extremely negative. Visibility Measures the amount of presence that a player had in an episode. Visibility includes confessionals, speaking time, face time, second person visibility and tribal council questions (TCQ). 1) Low visibility. 2) Medium low visibility. 3) Average visibility. 4) Medium high visibility. 5) High visibility. Second Person Visbility (SPV) Second person visibility is a count of the number of times a contestant is talked about by other contestants (either in confessionals or during game play footage) in a significant context. It excludes simple lists of contestants names (e.g. Katie saying that she, Janu, Ian and Wanda will vote for Coby) or simple descriptive passages (e.g. Caryn saying that Jeff looked funny riding a horse). Revision: Many contributors to Edgic have noticed that there are differences among the SPVs shown that we believe might be materially significant to the overall edit. Because of this, the classification of SPVs for Survivor 15 will go beyond a basic tally of number of SPVs and will analyze the nature of each SPV. These are all tallies for the individual that is spoken about the second person. SPV Tone: Positive, Negative or Neutral. Regardless of whether the SPV is accurate or not, the general tone of the SPV content is noted. SPV Type: I) (inconsequential); General in nature, without significant substance or tone. Example: John and I went to get the tree mail. This is a difference in SPV analysis; for S15 all mentions of another person will be tallied. They may be as previously believed irrelevant. But they are SPVs, so they will be tallied. S) (Strategic) The content discusses the strategy of the second person (NOT of the speaker. This will be included in the speaker's rating, not in an SPV rating.) G) (General) The content is of a general nature, more than inconsequential but not strategic. Example: discussions of injuries. I liken this to the standard MOR Edgic rating. R) (Reinforced) The content of the SPV is reinforced by images of the second person acting in a way described in the SPV. Example: John is really lazy, followed by images of John sleeping and lying about when others are working. C) (Contradicted). The content of the SPV is contradicted by images of the second person acting in a way contrary to the SPV. Example: John is really lazy, followed by images of John working very hard. This SPV, which doesn't occur often, has so far without exception been used as a strong negative indicator against the speaker rather than the second person. Not all SPVs will have an R or C. In fact, most won't. Game Strategy Ratings S0 - Nothing Strategic. Either the player is not present in the episode (INV) or his comments are always narration about camp life, not strategy. S1 - Somebody in the background during strategy sessions, or shown making one short confessional about his boot decision. Could even be shown taking a minor role talking about strategy but with no confessionals about strategy. S2 - Somebody who is shown in multiple strategy sessions, or talking with different people, or rallying to boot somebody, etc. - but isn't all over the place when it comes to strategy. S3 - These are the people who dominate the strategy talk. The greatest example of S3 for me is Brian C. in the "bait Blake" episode. Every time Brian is shown, he is being strategic, explaining the game from his point of view, we know what his plan is and how's he going to make it work. Every strategic thing is shown through his eyes. Usually an S3 person will be shown strategizing almost all the time they're on screen. Posting Schedule Thursday - Episode airs and all posters begin posting ratings. Monday (Noon) - All ratings are due. Monday (Noon Pacific Time) - Episode Tally is posted with close calls listed. (any rating where there is not at least 55% agreement), discussion on close calls begins. Wednesday (by Noon) - Discussion on close calls ends. Wednesday (by 6) - After considering discussion, Category Watchdogs and Player Watchdogs make the final call. If they disagree fat little fingers will have the final say. When the vote fails to reach a 55% majority the player WD and Category WD will each choose the rating they feel best represents the edit from any rating consisting of more than 20% of the vote. If they disagree, the overseer will choose the rating he/she feels is best between the two WD ratings or any other rating that consists of more than 33% of the vote. Assignments Category Watchdogs 1) Rating watchdog: guatemalafanfic 2) Tone watchdog: OnlyTheHunter 3) Visibility watchdog: Warrior 4) Overseer watchdog: fat little fingers Player Watchdogs Aaron............ Blake Amanda......... ILUVTIJUANA Ashley........... Francois Chicken......... MasterDarkNinja Courtney........dennydoylelives Dave.............. JaMalle Denese........... island sun Erik................ JeffP3 Frosti..............Teekus James............. astro Jamie...............beatles Jean-Robert....chaperone Leslie............. scepticA Peih Gee........ ILUVTIJUANA #2 Sherrea.......... Winterland Todd..............Nikkidj Special Watchdogs SPV Watchdog - scepticA Strategy Watchdogs - MasterDarkNinja T.C. Voting Watchdog - OnlyTheHunter Recap / J.P. Watchdog - OnlyTheHunter Your main responsibility is to make sure your "player or category" is getting a fair rating each week. So many times we all give our ratings, chaperone tallies and Warrior charts them. Your job will be to give it that second look and send up a flare if something looks odd. Everyone will be rating ALL the players as normal. If people want to make a special effort with their 'watchdog' player, that will be cool too. The main thing is to just keep an eye on final ratings each week so that 'your' player is not being falsely rated. Official Tallies: chaperone Webmaster: chaperone Edgic Charts: Warrior SPV and Charts: Warrior Confessionals: ILUVTIJUANA (Please check ILT's thread for confessional count and content.) Edgic Guidelines: Warrior Strategic Comments: MasterDarkNinja Episode Reference Episode 1 discussion starts on page 2...Tally on page 12 Episode 2 discussion starts on page 18..Tally on page 28 Episode 3 discussion starts on page 34..Tally on page 43 Episode 4 discussion starts on page 47..Tally on page 54 Episode 5 discussion starts on page 58..Tally on page 70 Episode 6 discussion starts on page 76..Tally on page 87 Episode 7 discussion starts on page 92..Tally on page 104 Episode 8 discussion starts on page 109.Tally on page 117 Episode 9 discussion starts on page 121.Tally on page 128 Episode 10 discussion starts on page .Tally on page Episode 11 discussion starts on page .Tally on page Episode 12 discussion starts on page .Tally on page Episode 13 discussion starts on page .Tally on page Episode 14 discussion starts on page .Tally on page "The Edgies" presentation starts on page Last Edited By: Warrior 11/19/07 3:06 PM. Edited 8 times.
Warrior		#2	[-]
Posts: 2197 (09/16/07 3:02 PM) Registered User Reply Quote More Recent Posts Message Connection Block Invite	CHARTS Overall Ratings Courtsey of guatemala funfic. S-1 Courtsey of 9RedWing19 S-2 Courtsey of 9RedWing19 S-3 Courtsey of gualemala funfic and TheIsraeliDevil. S-4 Courtsey of guatemala funfic and cantthinkofaname. S-5 Courtsey of 9RedWing19 S-6 Courtsey of 9RedWing19 S-7 Courtsey of 9RedWing19 S-7 Rated to the 2006 guidelined by Warrior and Crew. S-8 Courtsey of 9RedWing19 S-9 Courtsey of 9RedWing19 S-10 Courtsey of 9RedWing19 S-11 Courtsey of 9RedWing19 S-12 CHARTS * Player was sent to Exile Island S-13 CHARTS *Player was sent to Exile Island and shown there. Player was sent to Exile Island but not shown there. S-14 CHARTS *Player was sent to Exile Island and shown there. Player was sent to Exile Island but not shown there. S-15 CHART CLOSE CALLS Second Person Visibility Second Person Visibility (SPV) is a count of the number of times a contestant is talked about by other contestants (either in confessionals or during gameplay footage) in a significant context. It excludes simple lists of contestants names (e.g. Katie saying that her, Janu, Ian and Wanda will vote for Coby) or simple descriptive passages (e.g. Caryn saying that Jeff looked funny riding a horse). A cell highlighted in blue indicates that the contestant was either booted or in danger of being booted in that episode. This data is being counted to test the theory that the winner has a relatively high SPV count (postulated by KQ based on his observation of JennaM in S6). This data is being counted and categorized by ScepticA, see his post below. S-9 S-10 S-11 S-12 S-13 S-14 Voting Results: Accumulative Average Differential Graphs: The following analysis is examining a theory that, in the long term, a contestant that is close to the average for Rating, Tone, and Visibility is a leading candidate to win Survivor. Methodology In each episode, a contestants Edgic score for Rating, Tone and Visibility were converted to a number, using pastordices conversion scale for letter rankings. (Posted each week in chaperone's tallies) The contestants score, for each category, is the difference between mean and the contestants episode average score. Example: Terrys visibility for episode 1 was 2.29 the difference from mean (3) would be -.71 and that would be his score for episode 1. The scores were calculated week by week, and then the cumulative scores determined by add them episode by episode. Example: If Terrys visibility scores for the first 4 episodes are -.71, +.71, +.50 and +.75 then his cumulative score would be +1.25. In the past these numbers were derived at using the mean of squared differences. I feel that for the Tone and Visibility the true mean is more accurate and for the ratings I dont think it matters. The mean for Ratings, Tone and Visibility are 3,0 and 3 respectfully. F-9 S1-No switch, Tagi majority 5-4, Tagi winner S2-No switch, Ogakor majority 5-4, Ogakor winner S3-Switch, Boran majority 5-4, Boran winner - exception S4-Switch, Rotu majority 7-2, Maraamu winner S5-No switch, Chuay Gahn majority 5-4, Chuay Gahn winner S6-Switch, Tambaqui majority 5-4, Jaburu winner S7-No switch, Drake majority 5-4, Drake winner S8-No switch, Chapera plurality 4-3-2, Chapera winner S9-Switch, Yasur majority 6-3, Lopevi winner S10-No switch, Koror majority 8-1, Koror winner S11-Switch, Yaxha majority 5-4, Nakum winner Last Edited By: Warrior 02/02/08 3:15 PM. Edited 13 times.
Warrior		#3	[-]
Posts: 2198 (09/16/07 3:02 PM) Registered User Reply Quote More Recent Posts Message Connection Block Invite	Last Edited By: Warrior 12/06/07 5:31 AM. Edited 9 times.
MasterDarkNinja		#4	[-]
Posts: 2547 (09/16/07 3:03 PM) Registered User Reply Quote More Recent Posts Message Connection Block Invite	Strategy Guidelines 1) The winner will not have any S3 episodes until very late into the season. 2) The winner will not have three or more S0 episodes in a row. 3) The winner will generally have a mix of S1's and S2's, with a few S0's (probably in the first half of the season), and possibly an S3 late in the season. New Guidelines 1) The winner will not have three or more S0 episodes in a row. 2) The winner will not receive four or more S0's. Strategy Analysis (Note: By strategy analysis I mean what I think of each player's strategy edits so far and where their strategy edit could be going) Episode #3 Strategy Analysis Postseason Analysis of Strategy Ratings Notes Episode #1: -Sherea is a debatable S0 -Ashley, Dave, & Frosti are a debatable S1 Episode #2: -Ashley is a debatable neutral. -Leslie is a debatable = -Courtney, Erik, & Sherea are a debatable S0 Episode #3: -Aaron is a debatable + -Aaron, & Frosti are a debatable S1 -Jean-Robert is a debatable S3 Episode #4: -Todd is a debatable + -Dave is a debatable - -Courtney, Dave, Frosti, Jaime, & Sherea are a debatable S1 Episode #5: -Jean-Robert, & Jaime are a debatable = -Aaron, Peih-Gee are a debatable - -Frosti, & Jean-Robert are a debatable S1 Episode #6: -Amanda is a debatable - -Denise, & Frosti are a debatable S0 -Courtney, Erik, & James are a debatable S1 Episode #7: -Todd is a debatable + -Frosti is a debatable S0 -Erik is a debatable S1 -Amanda is a debatable S2 Episode #8: -James, Jean-Robert, & Todd are a debatable - -Frosti is a debatable S0 -Amanda is a debatable S1 -Jean-Robert is a debatable S2 Episode #9: -Courtney is a debatable neutral. -Amanda, Courtney, & Peih-Gee are a debatable S0 -Erik, Frosti, James, & Todd are a debatable S2 Episode #10: -Peih-Gee is a debatable - -Amanda, Courtney, Denise, & Todd are a debatable S1 Episode #11: -Amanda is a debatable S1 Episode #12: -Amanda, Peih-Gee, & Todd are a debatable S1 -Denise is a debatable S2 Episode #13: -Todd is a debatable + -Courtney, & Denise are a debatable S1 -Amanda, & Todd are a debatable S2 Past Season's Strategy Charts S11 S12 S13 S14 Last Edited By: MasterDarkNinja 12/20/07 7:51 PM. Edited 21 times.
Dictatorship		#5	[-]
Posts: 857 (09/16/07 3:10 PM) Reply Quote More Recent Posts Message Connection Block Invite	Hopefully this season is great in the editing department. :) Edit - Ya'll can delete this post if need be. Last Edited By: Dictatorship 09/16/07 3:12 PM. Edited 1 times.
beatles20147		#6	[-]
Posts: 10956 (09/17/07 2:43 PM) Registered User Reply Quote More Recent Posts Message Connection Block Invite	JAIME DUGAN Watchdog Reports Episode 1 Episode 2 Episode 3 Episode 4 Episode 5 Episode 6 Episode 7 Last Edited By: beatles20147 11/04/07 6:40 PM. Edited 7 times.
astroline		#7	[-]
Posts: 411 (09/17/07 2:52 PM) Registered user Reply Quote More Recent Posts Message Connection Block Invite	JAMES WATCHDOG REPORTS ANALYSIS EPISODE 1 Decent first episode for James. Had no real inclusion with the storyline, but got a full scene (nothing else really though) dedicated to him as a person. Was there with Leslie, who was apparently trying to help along. Basically the 'gentle giant', trying to figure out a way to hide his lack of social skills to avoid being misunderstood & intimidating, and that's pretty good that we already know that from just the premiere episode even when he was on the winning team. I'd say his scene bodes well for him & Leslie, but would have liked to see him maybe one more time instead of just kicking ass during the challenge. I decided on MORP2, because he had full focus for a brief scene, and we got inside his head. I would give him OTTP, but he wasn't completely simplified like that (Leslie's presence helped this), or CPP because outside of this scene, he disappeared except for the challenge. EPISODE 2 And there his winner chances go. He was nowhere to be found, a clear INV. Sure, he got a face shot early on, and he did great in the challenge, but he spoke nothing except for saying "Todd" to sit out in the challenge. Footage like that HAS to be shown, it's not a sign of any editing at all. James was clearly neglected this episode, partially because he had no role to play. EPISODE 3 What a fall it has already been since a promising premiere episode! This time, James is not INV, but he is lumped together with Fei Long villian Jean-Robert, and that does not bode well. He has an opening scene where he finds crab (with Amanda), and then gets his confessional, and then argues with Aaron over how to properly cook the crab. Nothing really negative yet, even though the little pieces of N are starting to seep through. Although he dominated the reward challenge, that is thrown away when he is joined by Jean-Robert in the water, talking about "getting ass" from Courtney, and then voting her out. While Courtney & Todd are right there, listening in. This makes him look both rude and stupid, maybe even a bit chauvinistic too. But that could just be the Jean-Robert influence working its way in. Either way, James definitely ended up N this episode, which is surprising if you look at the facts on paper: he caught a crab and he dominated the challenge. But these were both overlooked with his association with Jean-Robert and the comments he made. A similar episode to this is Erica's boot episode in Fiji. Sure, she found the pineapple, but then "freaked out" at the challenge. However, James finding the crab was not celebrated as a positive scene as Erica finding the pineapple was. It just kinda happened, and then the argument with Aaron that he had about it didn't do him any favors either. His visibility was average, thus a 3, and he was definitely MOR - not UTR, not CP, not OTT. EPISODE 4 Some of you might not agree with this, but I think this was James' second N episode in a row. His comments seemed condescending, especially with Dave first, "I told you about hugs." when Dave leans in to hug Dave. Dave brushes it off, but I personally think it didn't need to necessarily be shown, so it's just a precursor for James bitching at Jean-Robert later on. Jean-Robert was translating for the entire tribe, and James got on his case about it, saying that Jean-Robert was "barking orders". Sure, that could have been accurate for the Jean-Robert we've seen in the first 3 episodes, but this new Jean-Robert represented a turning point - willing to work hard finally and help his team, and James counteracted that. It made James look like he was overreacting, which in my opinion, he was. This is a pretty standard, by-the-book UTRN edit, in my opinion. No real development besides a couple of bitchy comments, a short confessional only relating to Jean-Robert, and no key scenes. EPISODE 5 I really can't do this one. It pains me to give him an OTTP4, as I was originally going to put him, Jaime & Peih Gee as all having mixed tone, but due to what everyone else convinced me of, the editing intent unfortunately was for James to be the hero once again. He overcame the obstacles, and even though he swore at the girls & threatened to quit, strategy from females isn't looked nicely upon by Mark Burnett, especially if it's to the disadvantage of a strong male "hero" like James. Bullshit. James did get screwed by the twist, but in all actuality, he was being a sore loser. Peih Gee & Jaime did what they had to, and James didn't seem to grasp it. But he was still the new underdog...somehow. EPISODE 6 Now this episode is one I don't feel bitter about. James keeps going from edit to edit, he's almost like a sampler for the editors. "Hmm, let's try James with THIS edit this episode!" "Okay, if we can only give him THAT edit next time!" "Alright, fine." From gentle giant, to INV, to disrespectful womanizer, to hard worker, to underdog, to HII holder? Holy shit. He really is getting a different edit every episode, it's insane. This time around, he survives the previous vote and keeps working hard at the Zhan Hu camp to try and work his way back in, and is shown at least being respectful to Jaime this time. He gets kidnapped by Fei Long, showers naked to everyone's delight, and works with Todd to basically get the HII handed to him. The new plan is to throw the challenge (hypocritical much? Seeing as how much he hated it when Peih Gee & Jaime did it.) so that when Zhan Hu votes him out, he can throw out the HII and whoever he decides to vote for (AKA Jaime) will go home instead. So James basically gets the HII handed to him from Todd, through no real effort of his own. So, at the challenge, he goes up against his old ally from Fei Long, Denise, to eat a chicken fetus. James is supposed to be throwing the challenge, and he does a convincing job of it (much more low-key than Jaime did, for example). However, Denise can't finish hers, so James, being the competitive person we've seen him to be, says "Fuck it" to throwing the challenge and goes all out, winning the round and thus leading Zhan Hu to an unwanted victory. His HII plan is ruined to get Jaime out, but at least he has the HII still. He was medium in visibility, earning him a solid 3, well-rounded throughout the episode. Not much complexity, a little hint of OTTP here and there, but most of it was MOR. Obviously the tone was positive, but not in contrast to Jaime & Peih Gee this time, just based on his own actions and that the viewer is supposed to be rooting for this new "underdog". Yeah, okay. EPISODE 7 The storyline for James this episode revolved around the HII and making fun of Jaime. He was pretty one-note, hence the OTT. He called a variety of people "dumbasses" in his many confessionals that he got, most of which just had him making fun of people and then laughing about it. I think he was a perfect M - positivity from the fact that what he was saying was funny and made the viewers laugh, but negative because he was actually making fun of the people he was around, and nobody was making fun of him. So he seemed a bit cocky and arrogant, but the shit he was saying WAS truly funny to watch. He ended up with an OTTP, which I don't really understand, but I think people are just buying into "James is the hero" without him actually doing anything heroic. Definitely the case for this episode then. Despite having an assload of confessionals, there were really no complex thoughts from him. He just gave commentary on other events going on and his opinions about other people (mostly Jaime, Courtney & Jean Robert), but it wasn't straight narration, so he's not MOR. It was presented in a very OTT way, so that was the easy rating to follow. His visibility was a standard 4, mostly because of his confessionals. Pretty interesting episode for him, but his funny commentary was really only necessary to add depth to the other situations going around, not his own storyline. CONFESSIONALS 1 / 0 / 1 / 1 / 4 / 4 / 7 TOTAL: 18 OVERALL RATINGS EP. 01: MORP2 EP. 02: INV1 EP. 03: MORN3 EP. 04: UTRN2 (UTR2 on main chart) EP. 05: OTTP4 EP. 06: MORP3 EP. 07: OTTM4 (OTTP4 on main chart) WINNER CHANCES Eliminated. INV in Episode 2. Last Edited By: astroline 11/08/07 11:53 AM. Edited 12 times.
guatemala fanfic	Survivor: China - Ratings Watchdog (Final Chart)	#8	[-]
Posts: 2396 (09/17/07 3:07 PM) Reply Quote More Recent Posts Message Connection Block Invite	Survivor: China - Ratings Watchdog Last Edited By: guatemala fanfic 12/21/07 7:41 PM. Edited 5 times.
MasterDarkNinja		#9	[-]
Posts: 2549 (09/17/07 3:07 PM) Registered User Reply Quote More Recent Posts Message Connection Block Invite	Chicken Watchdog Reports Chicken Watchdog Report Episode #1 Todd Watchdog Reports Episode #1 Episode #2 Episode #3 Episode #4 Episode #5 Episode #6 Episode #7 Episode #8 Episode #9 Episode #10 Episode #11 Episode #12 Episode #13 Last Edited By: MasterDarkNinja 12/12/07 11:28 AM. Edited 12 times.
I LUV TIJUANA		#10	[-]
Posts: 210 (09/17/07 3:57 PM) Reply Quote More Recent Posts Message Connection Block Invite	AMANDA KIMMEL WATCHDOG REPORT COMPILATION Episode One- "A Chicken's a Little Bit Smarter" Episode Two- "My Mom is Going to Kill Me" Official Ratings Episode One- UTR2 My Ratings Episode One- UTR2 Episode Two- CPP3 Confessionals 1/ 2 Last Edited By: I LUV TIJUANA 10/01/07 2:37 AM. Edited 2 times.
I LUV TIJUANA		#11	[-]
Posts: 211 (09/17/07 3:58 PM) Reply Quote More Recent Posts Message Connection Block Invite	PEIH-GEE WATCHDOG REPORT COMPILATION Episode One- "A Chicken's a Little Bit Smarter" Episode Two- "My Mom is Going to Kill Me" Official Ratings Episode One- CPM4 My Ratings Episode One- CPM4 Episode Two- UTR2 Confessionals 4/ 1/ Last Edited By: I LUV TIJUANA 10/01/07 2:38 AM. Edited 2 times.
Jeff P3		#12	[-]
Posts: 1155 (09/17/07 4:04 PM) Reply Quote More Recent Posts Message Connection Block Invite	WATCHDOG: Erik OVERALL: Episode 1: UTR1 Episode 2: MOR2 Episode 3: INV1 Episode 4: MOR3 Episode 5: CPP3 (Edgic vote: MORP3) EPISODES: Episode 1: Erik had a few sentences here or there, especially in regards to the shelter creation in the first Zhan Hu camp segment and also stating that he can't believe Ashley is a wrestler. He made a few other comments during the episode, but even being on the losing tribe didn't warrant him a confessional. He seemed poised to maybe receiving an INV1 until he got a TCQ, which definitely bumped him up to an UTR1. Other than that, there wasn't much going for Erik in the premiere episode, and that really damages his chances of winning altogether, if not eliminating him completely. Final rating: UTR1 Episode 2: Originally, after my very first viewing, I had Erik as UTR2. However, after rewatching it and seeing how all of his comments/confessionals were insightful to the tribe dynamics and strategy, I'll give him a MOR. His confessional at the beginning was very long and multi-faceted: he talked about Dave being the leader with PG right under him, Dave not taking suggestions and doing his own thing, and about people possibly going against Dave for being too harsh in his leadership. He then presented a clear argument that became the theme of the vote in his strategy talk: either Dave or Ashley, the two in conflict, must go. He saw Dave as still a strong member, and even though Sherea disagreed with him on the spot, she voted out Ashley, her friend, anyway. Does Erik have any control over Jaime or Sherea's votes? We'll just have to see. Final rating: MOR2 Episode 3: Easy episode for me once again. I called his edit before the first episode: Some INV's, UTR's, and maybe a couple MOR's. So far, so good. Final rating: INV1 Episode 4: Like Frosti, Erik's edit was balanced for this episode as he got screentime throughout and not just in one scene. He had three confessionals giving his insight to the tribe dynamics. The first was about the moldy rice, the second was about how "some people" weren't pulling their weight (a.k.a. Sherea) and the third was the last one before Tribal Council about how it's a toss-up between Dave and Sherea and he wishes he could just get rid of both of them. He also had a TCQ. This was definitely Erik's most visible episode so far this season, but he could have a CPPP5 right now and he would still be eliminated. It's good to see that we will get to know him a little bit more next episode, though. Final rating: MOR3 WINNER STATUS: Eliminated Last Edited By: Jeff P3 10/27/07 4:28 PM. Edited 7 times.
winterland121072		#13	[-]
Posts: 895 (09/17/07 4:08 PM) MESS member Reply Quote More Recent Posts Message Connection Block Invite	SHEREA WATCHDOG REPORTS EPISODE 01WATCHDOG REPORT SHEREA: Basically hidden from the tribal dynamics but not as hidden as Jamie or Erik; she was shown stating that she will vote for either Chicken or PG and as such was part of the drama; she had her confessional stating that the elements were more than she expected; her confessional was pretty revealing in that it has established a baseline arc for her - unexpected jaunt into the wilderness, she will either be devoured by the conditions or grow and learn to adapt; all that was missing was, "I hate leaves;" Chances of winning - slim; UTR2 Episode 03 WD Report: Sherea - Sherea was completely absent from this episode except for her presence during the RC. INV1 Through three episodes, we know nothing about Sherea. Her chances of winning are none. Last Edited By: winterland121072 10/07/07 7:33 PM. Edited 3 times.
BlakeB717		#14	[-]
Posts: 373 (09/17/07 4:43 PM) Registered user Reply Quote More Recent Posts Message Connection Block Invite	AARON WATCHDOG Episode One; MOR3 Episode Two; MOR3 Episode Three; Winning Chances; 5th best Notes; His story is being played by better players, but can he turn it around on them and have the last laugh? Prediction; Pre-Merge Boot -- he isn't showing any sign of being an individual player. All about the tribe/team. Last Edited By: BlakeB717 09/30/07 6:30 PM. Edited 3 times.
island sun		#15	[-]
Posts: 319 (09/17/07 6:08 PM) Registered user Reply Quote More Recent Posts Message Connection Block Invite	ISLAND SUN'S WATCHDOG: Confessionals: 1/0/0/4/2 Total= 7 Average= 1.4 Watchdog Summaries: Episode 1- Denise wasn't all that visible except for the few instances she was shown in the beginning. Jeff introduced her as a school lunch lady as she was looking at pictures of her family. There was a pause after her name to emphasize her love for her family. At the ceremony, Denise explained that it was overwhelming to be in the temple. It was a very spiritual and emotional moment for her. She had no significance to the story, giving her an UTR rating and a 1 visibility. The big debate for Denise is tone. Was her few moments in the beginning enough to give here a P? I think so. It was meant for us to like her. I predict that as time goes on, her tone will become clearer. As for the first episode, my official rating is UTRP1. Episode 2: Denise had absolutely nothing this episode. She was shown in the challenge, but who wasn't? No story, no confessionals...bad episode for Denise. After following a weak premiere, I'm going to have to eliminate Denise, unfortunately. I do not believe she can win this game. My episode two rating is, a very depressing, INV1. Episode 3: We saw Denise's back during the crab scene, and a couple more views of her at the reward challenge...she said absolutely nothing throughout the episode. INV1 again. Episode 5: Denise was in some of the earlier scenes at Fei Long. James complimented her work ethic, and she did the same for James. Denise also said that she felt the closest to James because they were the two workers at camp. The intent of this scene was to make Denise look positive for being the worker that she is. Later in the episode, Jean-Robert asks his waking tribe if anyone would like to help him fish. Denise gets a little irritated by Jean-Robert about him being too bossy. She says that a "please" would be nice. This scene made Denise look a little negative toward Jean-Robert, who was simply trying to be productive at camp. Overall, Denise was MOR. She wasn't too complex, but she did enough to avoid being UTR. I'm also giving her a mixed tone for reasons above. My final Episode 5 rating for Denise is MORM2. Still, with those two INV's, Denise is eliminated as a possible winner. JaMALLE'S WATCHDOG: Strategy Ratings: S2/S1-/S1-/S2 *Confessionals:* 2/6/1/7 Total= 16 Average= 4 *Second-Person Visibility:* 0/// Total= 0 Average= 0 JaMalle's Watchdog Report Links: Episode 1: "The Heavens Unzipped On Us!!" Episode 2: "It Begins Right Here" Episode 3: "Do It Once. Do It Right. Get It Right...Just Do It!" Episode 4: "Slave-Driving Ability..." Last Edited By: island sun 10/21/07 6:36 PM. Edited 17 times.
Teekus		#16	[-]
Posts: 260 (09/17/07 6:30 PM) Registered User Reply Quote More Recent Posts Message Connection Block Invite	FROSTI Episode 1: MOR2 - Young Frosti, strong and hopeful, jumps walls in challenges, loses to James, but keep your head up, young warrior. Tomorrow is another day. Episode 2: UTR1 - Quiet Frosti, hidden and stealthy like a ninja, steps up to the plate when others suck in the challenge. When will he emerge from the shadows? Episode 3: UTR1 - Acrobatic Frosti, jumps into the water gracefully, like the little Nemo fish in a big China sea. Alas, his chances of winning are slowly washing away. Last Edited By: Teekus 10/08/07 3:26 AM. Edited 3 times.
chaperone		#17	[-]
Posts: 2071 (09/17/07 7:01 PM) Registered User Reply Quote More Recent Posts Message Connection Block Invite	Reserved for Jean-Robert.
nikkidj		#18	[-]
Posts: 154 (09/17/07 7:52 PM) Registered User Reply Quote More Recent Posts Message Connection Block Invite	TODD WATCHDOG SPOT Episode 1 Can you say winner? The guy is mucho complex, sharp as a tack, and not nearly as annoying as I thought he was going to be. He basically forced Aaron to step out of his comfortable "subtle leader" zone and take the lead. He blatantly acknowledged that by doing so, he could use Aaron as a puppet, and control him. He seems to get along well with his tribe, except for Courtney, and possible RJ, and seems excited that they get along well and work well together. Why do I think he's the winner? A: close up of him kissing the idol, as the scene fades away to commercial. B: His quotes "I really want to be here. I'll do whatever I need to do. I'm here to win a million dollars. That's a looooooootttttt of money" are as close as we got to a Earl-as-king-of-the-mountain moment. However, he could be way too complex, and end up being a big-time distraction. As far as his ratings go, I think he was the only one who was present enough to be complex while not going OTT. And I don't think he was positive or negative at this point, but I do think we're supposed to like him. In the old days, I'd have said he was skewing positive, but that's blasphemy these days, so I'll just say neutral. CP4 Last Edited By: nikkidj 09/22/07 2:33 AM. Edited 8 times.
dennydoylelives		#19	[-]
Posts: 899 (09/18/07 5:43 AM) Registered User Reply Quote More Recent Posts Message Connection Block Invite	Reserved for Courtney. Ep. 1 - Initial reaction without re-watch or looking at anyone else's reactions - In the opening segment, she gave a very Jenna Morasca vibe. She seems to have a very small comfort zone, and a low tolerance for anything not in that zone. Then after grouping Sunday school teachers and Flight attendants while explaining the superiority of everything NY she was hidden away on a back burner. MORN2-3 With nobody jumping out as an Earl, she's one to keep an eye on. This is the prototype style introduction for an MORN winner. Ep. 2 - UTR2. She gave SPV's about JR that were fully supported by the footage. Anyone giving her N for that has to re-examine their rating standards. It's not "do you like her or hate her?", but are the editors making her look good or bad. In her case for this episode, it's not an editing trick that makes her personality look unpleasant, that's just the reality the editors are dealing with. The fact that they're supporting what she says with reinforcing footage means there is no negative intent. It's neutral, she's reporting. She just does it with a personality that grates on people's nerves. Beyond that, it's a diminished visibility while the other tribe gets TC. That doesn't help or hurt her winner chances. Other people have more fathomable winner edits and storylines, but hers isn't nonexistent, merely on hold. Also, the preview for next week has no bearing on this week's rating. EP. 3 Initial thoughts - Pre-IC she was moderately to very sympathetic with the whole J-R issue, both in cuddle-gate and his trash talking. On the other hand, her IC performance was absolutely horrendous. They certainly could have harped on it a lot worse, (and have in past instances), so it could be argued that it's not N, but it was very N footage. Post-IC, her injuries were presented in a sympathetic manner. So if the consensus is P or M, that should be fine, but an N rating doesn't fit. I think her rating will be through process of elimination. Obviously not INV or UTR. Probably not deep enough for CP, and a little too much depth for OTT. So I'm looking at MORM3. But I can understand MORP3 as well. Ep. 4 - UTR2. She was a focus early on, then pretty much disappeared. I think it's a mistake to eliminate her, and I still think the OTTN in ep. 1 was a mistake too. This episode doesn't change her status. She still has storyline foundations that are pointing to late in the game. Ep. 5 - UTR1. Her story seems to have turned entirely into the feud with John Robair. Not so bad because it keeps her on the radar. She only moves up because a person ahead of her was voted out. Currently, a not so confident #2 choice for winner, with Todd closing fast. Ep. 6 - MORN4. On Tone, she was pretty much mixed or positive until TC, as she was set up as one of the lust objects of the pervert, then went somewhat hypocrickital in the James shower scene, though Amanda probably took the brunt of that. But the TC stuff was cut in such a way that it came off as peevish for both her and Sherea, rather than justified. The lasting impression is often the last impression. It is an N, just not an OTT one. Most of her edit was low key, she merely had an OTT outburst at TC. On the good side for her winner chances, Todd has gone back to being too much strategy boy. He's looking more like Cesternino and less like Heidik. The only person with a better overall edit than her is PG. Ep. 7 - UTRN2. This is the episode that Courtney whined and pouted a little bit, then disappeared when the actual playing the game of Survivor kicked into gear. She's getting to be pretty boring to Watchdog, even if she's gotten OTTN from the group as a whole every time she has the hint of N in her edit. My prediction for episode 8, she's going to bitch about John Robair in a confessional or two, not perform well in the challenges, then bitch about John Robair at TC whether Jiffy asks her a question about him or not. She's just too damned boring to be OTT. Ep. 8 - MORP2. Again, she doesn't eliminate herself, but her 2 main storyline themes closed up last night. The feud with Genie Bobbie ended with a whimper, the she didn't really orchestrate, and she managed to win a challenge, and show her assets, or whatever Jiffy said she might do down the line when she wasn't exactly a challenge powerhouse in the tribal segment of the game. Now she can win if that was all holding pattern until her endgame begins, (like Danni's "You were an NFL quarterback", "No, you're thinking of the other Gary from C. Michigan. I'm a landscaper" distraction.) Ep. 9 - MORP3 She still has enough of a story to not eliminate herself, because major storyline themes are still in play. She could have gotten redemption for the opening ceremony during the Reward feast, but got a little appreciation without a full blown redemption arc completion. In other words, there's more room for redemption to come. The romance with Frosti is left lingering. Will he forgive her when he gets in the voting booth for FTC? Or will her betrayal of his innocence lead to her crushing defeat? Will she be the luckiest player in Survivor history, and get the vote of her hated rival fat slob to boot? Everything in the edit says she's facing the jury, and quite frankly, just about every vote could be a toss-up. Ep. 10 - UTR1 Very small presence this episode. Potential N for not wanting to share the cave, but I probably won't give her one because the cave was only about 3 by 3. If the people trying to get into it were wearing clown suits, I'd say lighten up Courtney, but since they weren't, I'd say can't you idiots see the cave is already overcrowded? Ep. 11 - UTR2 The episode where Courtney's irrelevency becomes undeniable, and her watchdog officially eliminates her from contention. Some may give her an N for her Todd impersonation, but it was so obviously done with humorous intent that it can't be taken seriously. Even Louie Anderson would tell you to lighten up. She has all the build up of a person that faces the jury, but none of the end game ratcheting up of the story to take her seriously as the winner. Ep. 12 - MORN2 Courtney, Courtney, Courtney, Courtney. You've been an interesting girl to Watchdog. Not quite Jonathan Penner level interesting, but not far from it. Considering how many MORN's I've given you, you shouldn't be surprised to hear what you're getting this episode. So there's a bowl, oil, a flame, and raw meat. "What do I do? This is confusing." Oh, that wasn't a joke? You really don't know how to turn raw food into cooked food with flame? Well, I will say this. *If,* and I want to emphasize IF, she wins, it is proof that *anybody* can win this game. They are obviously using her as comic relief. I would say, if 3 face the jury, she gets no votes, but likely gets sneered at with ample derision. If 2 face the jury, she may get a pity vote, or she may get an I hate your opponent vote. Ep. 13 - MORN3 Apparantly, I'm not Nostrodamus. 2 votes, 1 for being honest, which does tie up the storyline from the temple scene in episode 1, just not in the way that I might have imagined it. She came so much closer to winning than I expected. I have to admit that when the longshot, (long odds, whatever), quote came up in answering JR's question, I started thinking she could get JR's vote, then when Denise went on about Courtney's honesty, I was all ready for a "see I told you she wasn't OTTN every episode." Until vote #3 for Todd came up, I thought it was a distinct possibility she could win. Perhaps as Watchdog, I should have been a bit more vocal in pointing out that while the N's were justified, most of her episodes were solidly MOR and UTR when taken as a whole, and people were confusing an OTT moment, (of which she had a fair share), with an OTT episode when rating her. Prime example from the finale being her welfare comment. It was an OTT moment during an overall MOR episode. Last Edited By: dennydoylelives 12/17/07 9:19 AM. Edited 15 times.
Francois40		#20	[-]
Posts: 1265 (09/18/07 12:02 PM) Registered user Reply Quote More Recent Posts Message Connection Block Invite	Reserved for Ashley

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