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Never fear! I made a copy, on my own computer, of all the most important posts in this thread. I'm going to repost them when a little time has gone by. :)

2/24/04
I've moved this from edgic at KQ's suggestion.

I find it fascinating how, in each season, little family configurations seem to ally and hold tight, and how the members of each 'family' end up in the F4. Almost all of us grew up in families of some kind--mother (M), father (F), kids (S,D=son, daughter), maybe an eccentric uncle/grandparent type (E) in the mix. Under stressful conditions, people naturally reproduce a time in their lives when they felt safest. All of us can be mothers, fathers, weird people, kids, yet we typically feel more comfortable in one of these roles more than others when we find ourselves in social groups. So it goes for the survivors, also. Some of them we've even named for their role (e.g., "Mama Kim").

Those of us who are psychologically minded sense that there are all kinds of dynamics that play out between siblings, between children and their parents, and between parents and their 'weird' relations. I've had fun watching these patterns get re-enacted on Survivor, season after season.

I went back and looked at the F4 for all the seasons, put a * by who won and a - by 2nd place, and classified their editing as one of these four family characters. I did this pretty quickly, and my memory about some people is alittle spotty so please(!) feel free to change them (and I can't even remember who Matt was in S6--horrors!). These are ordered within F4 by likeability as rated by Kirblar in the ‘Overdogs, Underdogs..’ thread who noted that the most liked player rarely wins (top=most likable to bottom=least). I also listed Kernel's edgic ratings for each player (from their original seasons):

Final 4s:
S1:
Rudy: E MOR
Rich: F* CPN
Kelly: D- CPP
Sue: M CPN

...so Rudy was most likeable, edited middle of the road, eccentric, Rich won as 2nd most likeable and was edited as a complex, negative father, Kelly came in 2nd as a complex, positive daughter, and so on...

S2:
Elizabeth: D OTTP
Tina: M* UTRP
Colby: S- OTTP
Keith: F MOR

S3:
Lex: F CPN
Tom: E CPP
Ethan: S* UTRP
Kim J: M- CPP (if there hadn't been a production error, F would've won)

S4:
Kathy: M CPP
Paschal: F OTTP
Vecepia: M* CPN
Neleh: D- OTTP

S5:
Helen: M CPP
Brian: F* CPN
Clay: S- MOR
Jan: E UTRP

S6:
Rob: S CPN
Jenna: D* MOR
Matt: E- CPP
Butch: F UTRP

S7:
Sandra: M* MOR
Darrah: D UTRN
Jon: S OTTN
Lillian: E- MOR

What I noticed is that the person in the mom or dad role wins most often (5 or 6 wins/8). In the F6, there is always a complete configuration (mom, dad, eccentric, kids). Never have there been two kids in F2. KQ noted there have never been two dads in F2, and two moms only once (and in that season, Vee was questionable). Statistically speaking, these three results are unlikely to have happened by chance.

I'm not saying that players are edited to be mom, dad, kid, etc. I'm saying that they are naturally that role (or it is their strategy to fill that role at some point), and their editing reflects that fact.

Most commonly we have a parent figure and child as F2.

OBSERVATIONS FROM PRIOR SEASONS
‘What I noticed is that the person in the mom or dad role wins most often (5 or 6 wins/8). In the F6, there is always a complete configuration (mom, dad, eccentric, kids). Never have there been two kids in F2. Kernel Q noted there have never been two dads in F2, and two moms only once (and in that season, Vee was questionable). Statistically speaking, these three results are unlikely to have happened by chance. Most commonly we have a parent figure and child as F2.’

Craig wrote: ‘Patterns and Lessons: 1) The most popular person going into the F3 has NEVER WON the Final IC.’

In another thread, Kirblar observed: ‘When you are in the Final Four, you have the best shot at winning if you're in the second [likeability] position...And in the fourth, you can't win at all.’

And, I believe this is from Edgic (?), the winner tends to be just above the median in confessionals... and definitely from Edgic, most likely CP, UTRP, or MOR (is this correct, Kernel Q? I originally had CPN).

**~~**~~ SEVEN PREDICTIONS FROM THE ABOVE: ~~**~~**

1) the F6 will contain an E, an F, an M, and some kids.
2) the F2 will not be two kids.
3) the F2 will not be two dads (and probably not two moms, either).
4) the F2 will be a parent and child, so...the winner will not be E
5) the winner will not be the most likeable of the F4 (most probably the second most likeable)
6) the winner will be just above the median in number of confessionals
7) the winner will be CP, UTRP, or MOR

These may burn or drown before the F2, but I can’t wait to see! We could probably figure out whom these predictions refer to right now, if we wanted to...

Respectfully (and having so much fun!),
Lady V

4/14/04

E = The Es are obvious. You could think of them as OTT in edgic in a way--except that their eccentricity colors everything about them. These people are just...how do I say this?...odd. A little weird. If there was a question about a person being an E or something else, they are probably something else.

F = Father. Someone who is concerned with the physical protection of the others on the tribe (protection from the elements, starvation, dehydration, exhaustion); action-oriented; executes plans; goes out and does; tries to ensure safety (of others). Masculine personality (we all have both masc and fem within us; masc personalities display more masc than fem traits in their behavior).

M = Mother. Someone who is concerned with nurturing others on the tribe, preparing food, tending camp, responding with feeling to crises. Feminine personality (see above--one day I'm sure we'll see a male mother and female father).

S = Son. Someone who is concerned with ensuring self is treated as an adult, competitive with father figures, friendly with mother figures, struggling to prove competence.

D = Daughter. Someone who is concerned with tribal harmony, fun, generally pleasant. Can be difficult category to define--One Who is None of the Others.

M,F,E=These roles cannot be provided harmoniously in a small group by more than one person, which is probably why, in the past, F6 has been most likely to be M, one E, one F, and some kids... And Ss and Ds are made nervous out there on their own (especially after so many weeks), which may be why they always have an M and F around.

LADY V: 5/2/04
I came up with this idea by thinking about organizational dynamics...the way people behave according to certain roles when in groups. Those roles are an interaction between the needs of the group and the personality/style of each individual. People end up in the role in which they are most comfortable in life. I figured that in a stressful, 24/7 environment like survivor, defenses would fall away and each player's most comfortable role would likely emerge and be obvious. We seek the familiar when stressed, and what is more familiar than family? Someone to do the providing and protecting, someone to do the nurturing and comforting, someone(s) to play with...and weird ole' auntie or grandpa... Even people in really unhealthy families can remain loyal to them for life, can long for them, even if hurt by them. Survivors would likely create family groups and seek out family groups as long as possible--and especially toward the end, when it's all more stressful... so looking at past seasons, FF4 emerged.

FLF: 5/10/04
You know, Lady V, we did decide that (old) Chapera was a pretty dysfunctional family. This thread/theory is interesting as another spec approach, but I've really enjoyed its ability to look deeper at the real people playing this stressful game.

Last night's jury council and the live show had a lot of real people showing some very bruised feelings. I think the analysis of the tribes as family members gives a great insight into how well each player is coping. This is a nasty/cutthroat game and people who have become friends should beware before agreeing to play again!

Our joking about RobM being the fatherless son trying to be the "big man", ("...I might be little, but...", he said.), and forming a play/serious pseudo-parent pair with Amber, needs to be given a real look, after the f2 results. These were no ordinary Son or Daughter designations, that might be handed out to an individual player. This was a real time honest- to- god couple. In a sense, child-parents went f2.

I'm not trying to stretch things to cover a blunder, here. I think this season was a fascinating abberration for Survivor and for those of us trying to use past seasons to analyze it. The power of the couple, plus the undeniable gameplay of RobM, blasted through this season from start to finish.

If RobM hadn't been so ugly in his confessional putdowns and arrogance, I'd be his biggest fan. Playing hard and keeping sentimentality out of the game is good strategy. Gratuitous personal attacks on people to a confessional camera points to something going on inside the player that is outside of the game. In that sense, I see Rob's tearing down of those around him as a manifastation of a very real man/child trying to run his "parentless family", and showing his stress and real lack of confidence in his role.

At jury TC, he spoke of playing hard, but getting lost and confused in his beliefs as he got caught up in the game. I think RobM was sincere in his confusion. As for remorse, that's a character issue that only he can answer

5/10/04
The horror (oh, the horror!) is subsiding at last. I knocked my wine glass right off the arm of the sofa when Rob proposed, and my cat hid under the bed for the rest of the night...

The FF4 hypotheses (I broke 'em up if they contained two predictions):
1) The F6 will contain an E, an F, an M, and some kids. CORRECT!
2) The F2 will not be two kids. SO WRONG!
3) The F2 will not be two dads. CORRECT!
4) The F2 will not be two moms. CORRECT!
5) The F2 will be a parent and child. SO WRONG!
6) The winner will not be E. CORRECT!
7) The winner is more likely to be a parent. SO WRONG! (although maybe there will be a little Romber showing up soon...)

Non FF4 hypotheses from past seasons:

1) the winner will not be the most likeable of the F4 (Kirblar's finding--most probably the second most likeable) CORRECT!
2) the winner will be just above the median in number of confessionals (Rupert was way above the median; Amber was verrry close below it) INCORRECT (close)
3) the F2 will not be a known pair INCORRECT!
4) the most popular going into the F3 has never won the final IC CORRECT!

~*~*Non-FF4 predictions from prior seasons which held up:~*~*~

Kirblar: winner is second most likeable of F4
Craig: most popular going into F3 has never won the final IC
(Confessionals facetime: winner is verrry close to the median?)

~*~*Late Feb. FF4 predictions from prior seasons which held up:~*~*~

F6 will contain a complete configuration: E, F, M, and some kids.
F2 will not be two moms
F2 will not be two dads.
The E will not win.

9/21/04
S8:
Amber: D*
Rob M: S -
Jenna: M
Rupert: F