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This gets discussed far too often, but I'll throw my hat into the ring regardless.

An Aras/Cirie vote is very much up in the air. We'll never know who would have won, because there's evidence to support either player getting the votes from Shane and/or Courtney and/or Danielle, and their votes are what would have determined who won. Sally and Bruce are votes for Cirie - we know that much pretty definitively. Terry and Austin are votes for Aras - we know that much pretty definitively. Danielle could go either way, Shane could go either way, Courtney could go either way. I happen to think each of their votes would have been more likely to have gone to Cirie, but arguments can be made for both sides.

Danielle had her female alliance with Cirie. She would have respected her for beating her at the tiebreaker. And while both Cirie and Aras had good relationships with Danielle, I think Cirie's was slightly better, because they had been working with each other ever since the Bobby boot.
All Aras would have going for him is that he was clearly the stronger challenge competitor, something Danielle greatly appreciated in the game. However, if Cirie had eliminated her at the F4, that would mean Cirie won the one challenge she truly needed to win, and that might have overruled Aras' performances in a few challenges.

Shane was betrayed by both Aras and Cirie. He felt Cirie's betrayal was more grave, as she swore on her kids and Aras only swore on his yoga. And it's very possible that Shane's praising of Cirie's game only came after the show, once he saw her depiction and the fan reaction.
But Cirie was also a mother of three, and that would have been something Shane would have taken into account, no matter how you look at it. At the final TC, Shane brought up the fact that Aras was a do-nothing moocher, relying on his parents for support and not bothering to accomplish anything himself. And the most important person in Shane's life is his son. It's hard to say he wouldn't have considered Cirie's kids when making his decision. It's a million dollars, and on a personal level, he'd want to give it to Cirie.

Courtney had one motivation and one motivation only going into the jury vote. Yes, she had a tighter alliance with Cirie, so Cirie's backstabbing was "bigger." But it also means she had a better relationship with Cirie. And more importantly, Courtney's entire jury speech was focused on convincing everyone that she was not bitter. That's what she hoped to accomplish with her approach to the final vote. She wanted everyone to know she was mature and could look past the game, and be okay with what happened out there. And casting a spiteful vote for Aras would have nullified all that. It would have shown her to be the bitter bitch she wanted to badly to avoid looking like, and that's why I think her vote would have been for Cirie.

As for Aras' strategy, it sucked. Compare him to Colby if you must, but Colby actively pursued jury votes and Colby dominated the competition physically.

And I agree with Wyl on Terry - he would have beaten anyone in the Final 2, and he made a mistake in booting Cirie. The entire game, Terry was focused on dragging one of the Casaya goats to the end, be it Courtney or Shane or Danielle. But he simply did not need those goats, and he should have been trying to establish the weakest IC competitors possible in the F3. Danielle's going to outperform Cirie at any challenge, so by bringing Danielle rather than Cirie, he just increased his chances of losing the challenge, and increased his chances of losing the game. If he thought Danielle would take him to the Final 2, then he was even more of an idiot, and she played him.

SwineForkbeard wrote:

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Imagine that same sob story presented to the jury, juxtaposed with Aras's "I freeload off my dad and my mommy is my rock" declarations of arrested development. Most jurors consider awarding a million dollars to somebody to be a big responsibility, so ask yourselves to whom Shane et al. would have felt obligated to give it between the two.

Exactly. It's way more complicated then people seem to think. These are real people, and emotions are going to play a part, especially when it comes down to someone like Shane deciding if a mother of three or a freeloading yoga instructer is more deserving.

I'd disagree with you PT when you say that Terry didn't need Shane. As I see it, the ONLY way Terry was going to make the F2 from, let's say, the Final 7 on, is if he somehow gets to the Final 3 with Shane and Cirie.

Yes, actually, it is, but only because Shane and Cirie were probably the worst challenge competitors left in the game. There are really no final challenges where Terry could have lost to either one of them. What I was saying was that Terry was more concerned with carrying a goat with him than a weak challenge competitor, and that was his downfall. He thought he could win anything, and didn't maximize his chances of that happening, choosing instead to maximize his chances of winning a jury vote, which was unecessary.
Also, Shane wouldn't have brought him to the Final 2. Remember, Shane had a deal with Cirie anyway.

SwineForkbeard wrote:

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I think this discussion is intellectually masturbatory and a waste of time.

<3 Intellectual masturbation