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1. They assume Sherea and Frosti will be loyal to them after a merge. Not a good assumption. They'll have plenty of time to bond with their new tribe.

Because Aaron and James, both of whom have at least two other allies each on Fei Long, would stick with the three Zhan Hu's, right?

I think it's much more likely Sherea and Frosti stay loyal than it is James and Aaron would ditch their alliances to join the Zhan Hu's. Sherea and Frosti would be bottom rungs anyway and would just ultimately be the 6th and 7th placers. There's no fucking reason to keep James and Aaron over Sherea and Frosti.

2. Best case scenario, they're at 5-5 post-merge, which is not a definite advantage. Stupid strategy.

Yeah, Zhan Hu should've been smart and gone to the merge down 7-3 and get Pagonged, rather than at least take a gamble and possibly even win over an isolated player like Jean-Robert or Denise.

3. After a merge, PG and Jaime should be safe for a while. The targets will be immunity challenge threats. Aaron, James, John Robert, Frosti will be targets. They'd have lots of chances to build aliiances post-merge. Physically weak players like PG and Jaime should just be trying to get to the merge. After the merge, they'd be safe for quite a while. Now they've made themselves targets post-merge. Who is ever going to trust them now?

They kinda fucked up by admitting they threw the challenge, but the problem with those immunity whores is that, surprise, they'll win immunity. It's kinda hard to take out someone like, say, Tom Westman or Terry when they win every fucking immunity possible. I still don't think it really makes them that big targets, though, other than maybe causing them to leave earlier than they would've otherwise if Fei Long get the upper hand at merge.

I'd say throwing the challenge was the obvious move. They had nothing at all to lose, and a level playing field come merge to gain, and without Fei Long's two biggest challenge whores to boot.