Quiddity wrote:Nope. If they merge at F10, then Susie could switch over but that only ends up with a 5-5 tie. And Sugar could be swayed to rejoin the Kotas, especially with Marcus having earlier awarded her the second IC necklace. If they remain the same tribes at F10 (delayed merge), Kota boots Susie if they lose the IC and Fang loses a member if Kota wins the IC. Either way the Kota Onions rule at F9.
The goal in Survivor should be to get in a majority alliance AND be in a good position in that alliance. We saw how well being in a majority alliance worked out for Denise and countless other players who were at the bottom and didn't make a move. And ultimately that, above all else is what caused the downfall of the Onions, not being 'screwed' by a twist. The fact of the matter is that even if they merged at F10, they were in trouble. They made it too obvious to Susie that she was not in a long term position with them.
The twist screwed the five Onions (MCCRB). The twist was a godsend for Susie and the Fangs Four. Most of Probst's faves are in the Fang Four. You do the math.
"The goal in Survivor should be to get in a majority alliance AND be in a good position in that alliance".
Agreed.
"We saw how well being in a majority alliance worked out for Denise and countless other players who were at the bottom and didn't make a move".
Obviously not every member of the majority alliance will win. But Denise was MUCH closer to the win than Leslie was. Why ? Because she was in the majority alliance of the dominant tribe. Denise did not make a move and so she lost near the end.
If I'm going on S18 of Survivor, what should my strategy be to maximize my chances of winning the game ? Make an alliance of three within a majority alliance of five in a tribe of nine. Help my tribe win ICs and arrive at the merge with a numerical advantage over the other tribe. PAGONG the lesser tribe. Take your F3 to the end. Win in front of the jury.
Will there be lots of good social gaming involved ? Yep. Will there be some betrayals along the way ? Maybe. Obviously a good performance at FTC will help. Bringing a "goat" with you to the end will help.
Tom did this. Amber did this. Aras did this. Todd did this. Ethan did this. Parvati did this. Did these winners benefit from the stupidity of others ? Did these winners have some lucky breaks at times ? Yes and Yes. So did EVERY WINNER.
Anyone starting out with a plan to win the game like Chris and Danni and Sandra and Vee did is C-R-A-Z-Y. Chris was the last surviving Lopevi because he was considered weaker than Chad and Sarge. Sandra was the last surviving Drake because she was considered weaker than Christa and Rupert. Vee was the last surviving Maramuu because she was considered weaker than Sean and Rob. Danni was the last surviving member of her alliance because she was considered weaker than Gary and Bobby Jon.
