Going for the Dossier is a great Player move. Without it, you have a 50/50 chance of winning $495,000. With it, you have a better than 50/50 chance of
winning $420,000. How much better? Well, to use game theory and calculate the value of each choice:
50% * $495,000 = $247,500
58.9% * $420,000 = $247,500
Essentially, you had to just hope the Dossier would give you a 59% chance of winning (or better), instead of a 50% chance of winning, for it to be the right choice.
50% * $495,000 = $247,500
58.9% * $420,000 = $247,500
Essentially, you had to just hope the Dossier would give you a 59% chance of winning (or better), instead of a 50% chance of winning, for it to be the right choice.
