Note I'm lazily ripping this from my ABC boards post, so sorry if there's a few things that don't quite fit with one long post ;)
-QG
Episode 8 Part 1
Hi Mole fans, sorry for the delays again - that whole working during the week thing tends to wreak havoc on my ability to put out analysis any sooner. Down to the final 3. It's been a fun season of Mole hunting and I can't say again enough about how happy that ABC blessed us with a new 'real' edition of the Mole.
I can only hope that somehow someway
it's not the last 
Wasn't it weird how they brought up the random Paul/Nicole highlight from a few episodes ago at the beginning of "previously on the Mole" before they started rolling into the episode 7 recap?
Thankfully we got a couple more challenges that yielded a variety of results - it's way tougher to evaluate what's going on when the team either completely succeeds or completely fails which has happened quite a bit this season!
The "How's the View" mission was one of the more clever ones they've had this season. Sabotage seems possible from either end of the camera and given the mixed results, it seems quite clear that there was some definite Mole action going on. It is interesting to note that initially it looks like Nicole raised her hand to be "Young at Heart" though Craig also raised his hand about a split second later. Ultimately Nicole yields to Craig's wishes and is rewarded by being his partner for the task.
The 2nd task was particularly interesting with an exemption being in play (I'm curious who would've been designated as being the "exemption" target if Craig had gotten out of his cell first - in the introduction, Jon says that one of the THREE runners has an exemption card - the shooter has no such card). It's pretty funny to think that Paul got this far in the game when you consider how long it took for him to solve the puzzle.
In terms of uniqueness of each player on the quiz, we have the following (remember a higher number is less unique):
1t) Paul 16
1t) Craig 16
1t) Mark 16
4) Nicole 14
Shared answers:
If someone went 100% for Paul they would...
get 3 right if Mark is the Mole
get 2 right if Craig is the Mole
get 1 right if Nicole is the Mole
If someone went 100% for Mark they would...
get 2 right if Craig is the Mole
get 1 right if Nicole is the Mole
If someone went 100% for Nicole they would...
get 2 right if Craig is the Mole
get 1 right if Mark is the Mole
If someone went 100% for Craig they would...
get 2 right if Nicole is the Mole
get 2 right if Mark is the Mole
Anyhow on to the rankings.
4) Paul. Paul ended up being the great player that I thought he was in the middle of the game as opposed to the prime suspect that I found him on either end of the game. All in all I think that he did bring a good approach to the game even if that meant he wasn't always particulalry likeable. And obviously he ain't the Mole.
3) Mark. MARKFOMOs you've had a good run but I would be dead solid shocked if Mark ended up being the Mole. By Mole behavior standards he did have one of his 'better' episodes in episode 8 so I'll start there and then roll into a more full review of his season. Mark makes no effort (other than a lighhearted one at the end) to be a "Young at Heart" player. His tenure as a cameraman is by and large decent - though he did seem to have a little bit of trouble with the zoom - and by and large his camera work seems to be a help to Paul. The blocks go through without incident. In the soccer deal (and if there is a mini-theme for MARKFOMOs to hang their hat on perhaps it is the soccer deal with 2 soccer-related takss in the season) Mark did what seemed to be the best straegy: set the camera up in a way that made it likely for Paul to hit a straight shot. I don't think Paul was Mole-playing here and it probably is a bit tricky to swing with the right foot while thinking you need to swing the left. They gained 5k in the tea pouring deal which probably was Mark's poorest showing on the camera. The plank walking task went pretty smoothly except for Mark missing the "THE" in the phrase initially with his camera (it also was obscured a bit by Paul's own arm). Still $18k/$32k is pretty good, especially when you look at the other team. In the paintball task, it is reasonable to think the Mole would want to become the shooter and do the most possible damage to the pot ($45k) and get cover with an exemption to boot. The thing is, it's tough to figure that a player wouldn't want to do the exact same thing at that stage of the game - I'd gladly keep $45k out of the pot for a 1/2 chance at pulling down over $300k. It is true, though, that being the shooter takes away the possibility that the Mole would potentially throw an exemption to someone which could be considered too-direct an involvement in creating that outcome. Then again that also could be remedied by the Mole simply not knowing how that exemption card would be handed out and therefore getting hit would be a 'pure' play.
Anyhow, the thing about Mark's game is that it just doesn't really seem to add up to the Mole. He definitely seems a lot more in the mode of, say, Charlie in season 1 who did very very little to lead others into thinking they were the Mole. Mark's 2 biggest would-be sabotages directly involved getting an exemption for himself. In episode one he successful grabs a bag with money. Later in that episode he is able to successfully put the only 3 "good" items available to him on the table, even when he could have easily dropped either the Bible or the musket out and cost the team $. Uphill climb was easily a self-interest play and in the pig flying game his team came back with a respectable number of pigs (18) and though his team got sidetracked, every pig did get launched. In Fruit of the Luge his was the only team that put the full $14k in the pot. He did perhaps pull a mini-sabotage in dress code by opting out but that was pretty small doings ($5k). Gold Rush saw him drop another $1k when he picked up the scale but to be fair he did drop 20 pounds to pick up 20 pounds. He got his answer right in the "Who Said That" game and while his reaction seemed pretty theatrical to the journal burning, if he is a player he probably lost more than any other player when those books burned. He puts $25k directly into the pot by not taking the exemption in "All For One". He was the ringleader in revolting against Craig's choices in the Travelers game, that is true but it's not exactly like anybody aside from Alex ever approached the starting gate (as a side note, if you figure that he strongly suspected Craig then he would have no problem from a game perspective of giving an exemption to Craig). He nearly single-handedly puts $70k into the pot by running 55 minutes or so in the Grapes of Cache game, answer most of the questions to boot. He did miss (but was close) in the Swing Out game but so did Nicole and Craig. He came through big again in the Go Figure task, correctly Clay's error and getting Paul straightened out so they could make it back in time. Ticket To Ride virtually was a non-game in the sense that it was a full success and it's doubtful the Mole would play there. Other than his "Journal 10" being featured on the abc homepage for the Mole and a green background on a statue where you could see him behind, oh and I guess an apple for the teacher, there really is incredibly little to indicate Mark being a saboteur in the game. Mark is NOT the Mole. Mole probability 0.5% (I was gonna give him 1% but that's just too much.)
Which brings us to:
2) Craig. Basically I'm in a position where my hope for being right 'all along' intersects with my genuine fear that Craig is the Mole and I really have just been missing it. Unlike with Mark, I would not be surprised if Craig ended up being the Mole at this point. In fact no small part of me kind of expects it. This time around I'll leave the episode 8 bits until the end as I build up the case that the CRAIGFOMOs have and it is a pretty good one. In episode one on the first game Craig fails (valiantly) to get a bag - now there's part of me that doesn't see this as 'pure' sabotage because I think of the 5 players who missed (4 of whom had bags with money) I think Craig is definitely the most likely to NOT have been chosen to jump for money by Marcie (Paul, Alex, Victoria, and Ali were the others who missed). But he never does seem to finish his wrapping his arms around that bag either way. In "Crusoe" he really did do nothing (other than waste time by dragging over the Mole sign -- actually that'd be kinda cheeky for the Mole to do) so it's fair to think something may have been up there though running around isn't exactly his strength. He volunteers for Uphill Climb right AFTER Liz puts her hand up (and he does see her do it) - now if he turns out to be the Mole this would be one of the things that threw me off. I don't really envision him and Liz even getting to that half-way point where Jon was before the soccer players (with a coach who probably couldn't have hurt to have on there) made it up to the top. Of course we don't really know how far up Jon was so it is difficult to gauge. On the soccer field he did nothing again though he did score on Bobby in a play that is pretty darn inexplicable. In the pig tossing game he did something that does seem right out of the Mole handbook for slick plays and it is genius if he is the Mole: it is in fact Craig who suggests that Bobby get in the wheelbarrow. While it's true that he'd be an "anchor" anyway, I have a hard time believing that they were faster having to push Bobby around. Still Craig did have a positive effect in this game by helping get Alex's pig launching straightened out - something that seemed a bit on the less than Moley side and did put something positive in the pot. In Fruit of the Luge it is pretty suspect that he kept talking with Victoria far after the finish line. While blame could be jointly shared by Victoria, it is Craig after all who can see where the finish line is and thus was in a better spot to screw that up 'innocently'. By the way while I've noted Green Apple could point to Mark (the teacher) or Nicole (an apple a day keeps the Mole away) it could actually be even something more subtle and simple. After all Craig is a "G raphic A rtist". It does also seem just oblique enough that the players couldn't see it while it was going on but that could be called upon as a legit hidden clue for the audience. In the Dress Code game, Craig does play the "hero" by discovering the clothes, though it should be noted that 1) he always seemed to have the card with the address - and code - in his hand and thus kept it away from the others and 2) all the other players were dressed when he gets all the clothes, essentially his "heroism" only resulted in 5k extra going in the pot while givin ghim some cover as a player.
In the next episode, Midas Rush does seem to indicate more Craig heroism as he battles the thin air to make it up the hill. Still this effort was on a task that netted only $15k (after Jon's bump up) for the team (saying that game was for $50k was ridiculous btw - there's no way that each of them could carry 25 bricks!). As for the medical emergency? That's actually plausible under the circumstances, though if he's the Mole it actually would serve to strengthen his position. Staying inside while the others played the Who Said That game and getting their journals burned while possibly conferring with the producers on the upcoming games does seem plausible. Technically I guess his absence in the Who Said That game could be called a $2k sabotage as well I guess.
The All For One mission has Craig leaving right away to get out of the cold (if his medical scare is real that becomes a mandatory play) but it also does kind of put him back on a good faith footing and again could show the others he's a player. If he's the Mole, his approach would not be conducive to sabotaging this game at this point - he's been low key and in the background and "All For One" was a more in-your-face interpersonal game. Plus, of course if he knew the fix was in for the next game with his "exemption-worthy" comment then he can easily take that mission off. It's reasonable. I can say that the revolt in "Travelers" where Mark was a ringleader, Nicole was a loud protester and Paul was also a loud protester does fit if THEY are players as all can take a free shot at looking suspicious while avoiding an essentially impossible task and giving their suspected Mole an exemption. That does fit. PS - Yeah Yeah I know I forgot to mention the CRG graffiti in the cell
With the next episode, Craig basically was not very helpful in Grapes of Cache. I felt his cause was a bit hurt I guess by the fact that this was such a success anyway. It was a weird task. Basically the early rounds could go pretty much forever - Mark is walking after all. I guess a good Mole plan would be to answer a bunch early and then screw up the last 2 or so to put Mark at running pace for as long as possible. I guess. But it's tough to see a full on sabotage here from Craig. On the jump, I can't say he'd be expected to succeed, though his throw did appear to be pretty random (though it was kinda close actually). In the Smart/Dumb task Nicole is right in the sense that it did seem that Craig tried to screw up the whole 55/56 thing (though to be fair he seemed to correct some Nicole bad math later - or was he reinforcing it?). Nicole did have 238 btw and Craig did persuade her to have it as 228 - thus it's conceivable that if Nicole's original answer were used they'd only be one number off - it is possible a Mole Craig would do this on purpose. He really did screw with Clay at the end of the task (232? no it's 233 Craig. 231?) before keying in the right number - was he just messin' or was that a last ditch sabotage effort? Ticket to Ride was basically a pass as I said earlier, though it is true nobody picked him as a person to trust.
So on to this episode. Man did Craig mess up a lot with Nicole as his eyes! Nicole did mess up by answering Craig's question, though Craig asked a question that was designed to be answered as opposed to merely trying to direct Nicole. In the soccer part, he swings wildly on his 2nd kick then sort of immediately pivoted himself before kicking the ball a mile away. He bumps the table in the tea-pouring and then plays hide the chalk and walks achingly slow on the plank. If he's the Mole, Nicole's right and he Mooed it up a lot. In the 2nd game maybe Craig really was supposed to get out first and be the shooter, but I'm not sure if it's editing where he seems to yell "Go! Go!" right when Paul gets onto the field (bringing attention to Paul) or not. He gets near the end of the course but it looked like he got pegged pretty easily when he did get hit. Now, the thing is that would the Mole allow a player to get an exemption that late in the game? (Even one he said was on the side of 'good'?) I'm not so sure, though of course maybe he didn't know he had the card.
So there's your case CRAIGFOMOs. And I do have to say while I didn't really put these all together until this late juncture it's pretty persuasive. BUT...part of me says I've come too far to be switching...and another part of me remembers season one where I all but got off the Kathryn bandwagon at the end and stuck it out almost in spite of myself then...and it's not like there's no case for Nicole over the course of the game, because there still is. So while I can't say I'd be surprised if he is, I'll still say that Craig is NOT the Mole. Mole probability 48.5%
1) Which brings us to Nicole. It's kinda funny because the moment that Paul got knocked out I was thinking "Man, I can finally put a high percentage up there with Nicole this feels good" but as is now pretty evident that's not the case. But, still there is a case for Nicole. She did succeed in getting a bag at the start (with no $ in it) but task 1 isn't always a sabotage by it's very nature. The beach deal still is really really suspect in the sense that Jon asked a question ("who's the biggest whiner") that seemed to have exactly one answer at this point ("Nicole"). This has been a tough hurdle to overcome for me in considering others - it really is a pretty neat set up. (Now I will say that a piece of Craig logic would say that Craig's behavior prior to that message was that of good sport - that is it'd be impossible for HIM to get selected as "Whiner" and thus ensure he could have a role in the Crusoe game and get to Mole some things up but I digress). Mathematically the 1st exemption seems of little value (you only have a 1/11 chance of getting eliminated) but it's tough to think that one PLAYER would get that edge. Now one thing that goes against is the fact that she didn't whine until she knew she was outside - something she couldn't control - but of course the criteria may have changed or she would've found a way to whine or annoy the others even if she was placed inside.
Anyhow, in Race to the Summit, Nicole does first suggest the good runners be the Uphill Climb team instead of Craig and Liz. She then proceeds to play a pretty horrible goalie in the task itself. She does board the 1st gondola (not necessarily Molish) though one thing I don't think I noted before but must be clear is that Mark and Kristen must have beaten EVERYONE to the top of the hill since they were invited to come out after the others all were there (it's hard to believe the Gondola 1 people showed, then somehow Mark and Kristen slipped in). It's plausible that she knew the time on the soccer field was enough of a delay - no further molishness needed. In the pig catching game she was on Alex's crew which basically meant they were automatically going to get a bunch of pigs due to his spanish speaking. She did help launch pigs in what a fairly successful effort, though things were going worse with her launching before Craig showed up and improved things.
Fruit of the Luge (and again of course this hidden clue sponsored by Apple) - Nicole specifically integrates the Green Apple into the sabotage itself by double speaking it to Alex (now some might think they both planned it - i.e. that Alex/Nicole has an actual coalition that wasn't shown and that he never was picking her but just trying to mislead others - another reasonable thing but I digress again). As an "out front" Mole it's a reasonable sabotage. Even if she's not the Mole, there's a part of me that thinks this type of a Mole would be kinda cool - the "I'm Trying So Hard to Act Like The Mole I Can't Be The Mole" Mole. Real $ came out as a result of Nicole's messing Alex up. In the Dress Code task she does succeed in getting clothing, that is true, so that does kind go against her case.
In Midas Rush Nicole does a small sabotage in the sense of taking like only 4 or 5 bricks (I think Kristen supposedly took 12) and dawdling a bit (though they make it). She backs Kristen at first but jumps to see Clay's point about never having an exemption. There is no breakdown though so it's hard to say something happened there. In Who Said That there is definitely some obvious sabotage by her in failing to answer correctly and also being over the top in giving away the answer to Kristen - is $4k really a lot in terms of sabotage? I'm not so sure.
In All For One, Nicole doesn't do much outside of briefly protesting Kristen's desire to get out second but doesn't do much more than that. She does say in a confessional "I wouldn't have let a single soul out if it was up to me" - of course if she's the Mole, it might not really be up to her, right?
In Travelers she does protest Craig's choices loudly at the start (before Mark's ringleadership occurs) and does have no problem with opting out, though Mole's should lead such things more than follow it's true.
With the Grapes of Cache game though, there does seem to be something up with Nicole for sure. Laughably on question one she initially supports and answer that's not even one of the choices (though some would say a play-Mole was trying too hard there). She only really seems to solve one answer (that weird ABC puzzle) and is pretty much useless on the other ones by and large. She picks a fight with Paul and keeps it going and going which was the one true case of something happening that really served to add more to Mark's burden (since Paul was answering back with her rather than working on giving out coordinates). In the Swing Out game she shows great form on the jump and ridiculously horrible inaccuracy in the throw being way way off target.
By the way somewhere in the midst of this - perhaps at the start of Grapes of Cache we see a sign for "Winery" - perhaps a clue for Dr. Whiner? Okay maybe that's a stretch.
In the Go Figure game she seems to do fine with Craig even correcting him until the last number is done. She does come back with a ludicrous answer of 227 on the do-over which is certainly on the suspicious side. Ticket to Ride was a freebie - now she did go last and preferred not to have Clay in a position of "3" votes saying she didn't want him to do too much - now possibly she could be tipping she knew the task though it's just as possible that a player would want to spread things out. The theatrics of her supposed self-execution are pretty over the top and frankly if she were the Mole it would seem to serve as a great cover by seeming to want out. She has been doing a lot of the "I'm Gone" thing of late that is for sure. Is that a way to cover her as the Mole, or is it a way to dramatically show how the "Whiner" turned to "Winner" - tough to say.
In this week's episode she's on the flipside of the Craig equation. She doesn't seem to do a very good job on the camera actually (Craig's hands are big, but they really shouldn't take up the whole camera). Shaking the camera around to say stop?!? That is a weird strategy for sure - I think that would make a mistake MORE likely. Oh and of course I forgot the fact that she did answer Craig - if Craig's a player that would be a great test to throw at the Mole to shore up your suspicions.
In the paintball task, Nicole names her cell right away. Now the one thing that helps the Mole case here is that if the Mole DOES know what cell number WON'T be designated for the exemption she can ensure that she gets it and thus leave the exemption amongst the players (A "Fairer" situation). The sabotage is straighforward - getting pegged when you just about have made it out totally seems to make sense.
So there you go. There is still a case out there for Nicole. It's become tougher to stick it out but I've come this far so I think I have to now, right?
Nicole IS the Mole. Mole probability 51%.
A few thoughts that haven't been dropped elsewhere in this one.
The lie-detecting stuff in terms of reading their face when they answer is still pretty interesting. Craig's is really tough - his eyebrows do not move very obviously so that's a pretty tough call. In the recap episode he says he's not the Mole but he's nodding his head yes (which would seem to say he IS the Mole). Similarly though, in the last episode when Nicole says she's not the Mole she Raises her eyebrows (A sign of a lie) and doesn't shake her head no.
I'm curious if it turns out to be Craig whether or not they've actually had him pegged for a while. Mark has proffered Craig AND Nicole, sorta pushing Nicole to Clay but at a certain time you gotta cut your buddy loose and I'm wondering if that's what that was. Paul was being consistent when he said Craig was his leading suspect all along (he says so in Ep. 1 as well) - now he got eliminated on a non-tie-breaker but it's plausible that Question 6 screwed him up (it's the only one I've seen that lists the players Right to Left). Btw, this does seem to be the type of question that goes beyond the question of who the Mole is and more so gets into the observant part I'd say. Alex getting eliminated would seem to blow up Nicole (and really might) but what if he either was throwing that out as a fake (and truly suspected Craig) or switched somehow before that quiz where he was knocked out?
Craig didn't seem to react at all to Mark getting the exemption btw which was kinda weird.
Craig has never had his name entered into the computer. That also is kinda weird.
Nicole did offer a wacky 5-letter theory pointing to Bobby way back in episode 3. Craig does sorta have 5 letters.
Okay I've gotten into pretty minute stuff now I guess. Should be a fun one this week (I'm assuming this week will be a Cliffhanger with a How the Mole did it next week - at least I hope so as that'd be more fun).
Cheers everyone! And thanks for the page views
-QG
-QG
Episode 8 Part 1
Hi Mole fans, sorry for the delays again - that whole working during the week thing tends to wreak havoc on my ability to put out analysis any sooner. Down to the final 3. It's been a fun season of Mole hunting and I can't say again enough about how happy that ABC blessed us with a new 'real' edition of the Mole.
Wasn't it weird how they brought up the random Paul/Nicole highlight from a few episodes ago at the beginning of "previously on the Mole" before they started rolling into the episode 7 recap?
Thankfully we got a couple more challenges that yielded a variety of results - it's way tougher to evaluate what's going on when the team either completely succeeds or completely fails which has happened quite a bit this season!
The "How's the View" mission was one of the more clever ones they've had this season. Sabotage seems possible from either end of the camera and given the mixed results, it seems quite clear that there was some definite Mole action going on. It is interesting to note that initially it looks like Nicole raised her hand to be "Young at Heart" though Craig also raised his hand about a split second later. Ultimately Nicole yields to Craig's wishes and is rewarded by being his partner for the task.
The 2nd task was particularly interesting with an exemption being in play (I'm curious who would've been designated as being the "exemption" target if Craig had gotten out of his cell first - in the introduction, Jon says that one of the THREE runners has an exemption card - the shooter has no such card). It's pretty funny to think that Paul got this far in the game when you consider how long it took for him to solve the puzzle.
In terms of uniqueness of each player on the quiz, we have the following (remember a higher number is less unique):
1t) Paul 16
1t) Craig 16
1t) Mark 16
4) Nicole 14
Shared answers:
If someone went 100% for Paul they would...
get 3 right if Mark is the Mole
get 2 right if Craig is the Mole
get 1 right if Nicole is the Mole
If someone went 100% for Mark they would...
get 2 right if Craig is the Mole
get 1 right if Nicole is the Mole
If someone went 100% for Nicole they would...
get 2 right if Craig is the Mole
get 1 right if Mark is the Mole
If someone went 100% for Craig they would...
get 2 right if Nicole is the Mole
get 2 right if Mark is the Mole
Anyhow on to the rankings.
4) Paul. Paul ended up being the great player that I thought he was in the middle of the game as opposed to the prime suspect that I found him on either end of the game. All in all I think that he did bring a good approach to the game even if that meant he wasn't always particulalry likeable. And obviously he ain't the Mole.
3) Mark. MARKFOMOs you've had a good run but I would be dead solid shocked if Mark ended up being the Mole. By Mole behavior standards he did have one of his 'better' episodes in episode 8 so I'll start there and then roll into a more full review of his season. Mark makes no effort (other than a lighhearted one at the end) to be a "Young at Heart" player. His tenure as a cameraman is by and large decent - though he did seem to have a little bit of trouble with the zoom - and by and large his camera work seems to be a help to Paul. The blocks go through without incident. In the soccer deal (and if there is a mini-theme for MARKFOMOs to hang their hat on perhaps it is the soccer deal with 2 soccer-related takss in the season) Mark did what seemed to be the best straegy: set the camera up in a way that made it likely for Paul to hit a straight shot. I don't think Paul was Mole-playing here and it probably is a bit tricky to swing with the right foot while thinking you need to swing the left. They gained 5k in the tea pouring deal which probably was Mark's poorest showing on the camera. The plank walking task went pretty smoothly except for Mark missing the "THE" in the phrase initially with his camera (it also was obscured a bit by Paul's own arm). Still $18k/$32k is pretty good, especially when you look at the other team. In the paintball task, it is reasonable to think the Mole would want to become the shooter and do the most possible damage to the pot ($45k) and get cover with an exemption to boot. The thing is, it's tough to figure that a player wouldn't want to do the exact same thing at that stage of the game - I'd gladly keep $45k out of the pot for a 1/2 chance at pulling down over $300k. It is true, though, that being the shooter takes away the possibility that the Mole would potentially throw an exemption to someone which could be considered too-direct an involvement in creating that outcome. Then again that also could be remedied by the Mole simply not knowing how that exemption card would be handed out and therefore getting hit would be a 'pure' play.
Anyhow, the thing about Mark's game is that it just doesn't really seem to add up to the Mole. He definitely seems a lot more in the mode of, say, Charlie in season 1 who did very very little to lead others into thinking they were the Mole. Mark's 2 biggest would-be sabotages directly involved getting an exemption for himself. In episode one he successful grabs a bag with money. Later in that episode he is able to successfully put the only 3 "good" items available to him on the table, even when he could have easily dropped either the Bible or the musket out and cost the team $. Uphill climb was easily a self-interest play and in the pig flying game his team came back with a respectable number of pigs (18) and though his team got sidetracked, every pig did get launched. In Fruit of the Luge his was the only team that put the full $14k in the pot. He did perhaps pull a mini-sabotage in dress code by opting out but that was pretty small doings ($5k). Gold Rush saw him drop another $1k when he picked up the scale but to be fair he did drop 20 pounds to pick up 20 pounds. He got his answer right in the "Who Said That" game and while his reaction seemed pretty theatrical to the journal burning, if he is a player he probably lost more than any other player when those books burned. He puts $25k directly into the pot by not taking the exemption in "All For One". He was the ringleader in revolting against Craig's choices in the Travelers game, that is true but it's not exactly like anybody aside from Alex ever approached the starting gate (as a side note, if you figure that he strongly suspected Craig then he would have no problem from a game perspective of giving an exemption to Craig). He nearly single-handedly puts $70k into the pot by running 55 minutes or so in the Grapes of Cache game, answer most of the questions to boot. He did miss (but was close) in the Swing Out game but so did Nicole and Craig. He came through big again in the Go Figure task, correctly Clay's error and getting Paul straightened out so they could make it back in time. Ticket To Ride virtually was a non-game in the sense that it was a full success and it's doubtful the Mole would play there. Other than his "Journal 10" being featured on the abc homepage for the Mole and a green background on a statue where you could see him behind, oh and I guess an apple for the teacher, there really is incredibly little to indicate Mark being a saboteur in the game. Mark is NOT the Mole. Mole probability 0.5% (I was gonna give him 1% but that's just too much.)
Which brings us to:
2) Craig. Basically I'm in a position where my hope for being right 'all along' intersects with my genuine fear that Craig is the Mole and I really have just been missing it. Unlike with Mark, I would not be surprised if Craig ended up being the Mole at this point. In fact no small part of me kind of expects it. This time around I'll leave the episode 8 bits until the end as I build up the case that the CRAIGFOMOs have and it is a pretty good one. In episode one on the first game Craig fails (valiantly) to get a bag - now there's part of me that doesn't see this as 'pure' sabotage because I think of the 5 players who missed (4 of whom had bags with money) I think Craig is definitely the most likely to NOT have been chosen to jump for money by Marcie (Paul, Alex, Victoria, and Ali were the others who missed). But he never does seem to finish his wrapping his arms around that bag either way. In "Crusoe" he really did do nothing (other than waste time by dragging over the Mole sign -- actually that'd be kinda cheeky for the Mole to do) so it's fair to think something may have been up there though running around isn't exactly his strength. He volunteers for Uphill Climb right AFTER Liz puts her hand up (and he does see her do it) - now if he turns out to be the Mole this would be one of the things that threw me off. I don't really envision him and Liz even getting to that half-way point where Jon was before the soccer players (with a coach who probably couldn't have hurt to have on there) made it up to the top. Of course we don't really know how far up Jon was so it is difficult to gauge. On the soccer field he did nothing again though he did score on Bobby in a play that is pretty darn inexplicable. In the pig tossing game he did something that does seem right out of the Mole handbook for slick plays and it is genius if he is the Mole: it is in fact Craig who suggests that Bobby get in the wheelbarrow. While it's true that he'd be an "anchor" anyway, I have a hard time believing that they were faster having to push Bobby around. Still Craig did have a positive effect in this game by helping get Alex's pig launching straightened out - something that seemed a bit on the less than Moley side and did put something positive in the pot. In Fruit of the Luge it is pretty suspect that he kept talking with Victoria far after the finish line. While blame could be jointly shared by Victoria, it is Craig after all who can see where the finish line is and thus was in a better spot to screw that up 'innocently'. By the way while I've noted Green Apple could point to Mark (the teacher) or Nicole (an apple a day keeps the Mole away) it could actually be even something more subtle and simple. After all Craig is a "G raphic A rtist". It does also seem just oblique enough that the players couldn't see it while it was going on but that could be called upon as a legit hidden clue for the audience. In the Dress Code game, Craig does play the "hero" by discovering the clothes, though it should be noted that 1) he always seemed to have the card with the address - and code - in his hand and thus kept it away from the others and 2) all the other players were dressed when he gets all the clothes, essentially his "heroism" only resulted in 5k extra going in the pot while givin ghim some cover as a player.
In the next episode, Midas Rush does seem to indicate more Craig heroism as he battles the thin air to make it up the hill. Still this effort was on a task that netted only $15k (after Jon's bump up) for the team (saying that game was for $50k was ridiculous btw - there's no way that each of them could carry 25 bricks!). As for the medical emergency? That's actually plausible under the circumstances, though if he's the Mole it actually would serve to strengthen his position. Staying inside while the others played the Who Said That game and getting their journals burned while possibly conferring with the producers on the upcoming games does seem plausible. Technically I guess his absence in the Who Said That game could be called a $2k sabotage as well I guess.
The All For One mission has Craig leaving right away to get out of the cold (if his medical scare is real that becomes a mandatory play) but it also does kind of put him back on a good faith footing and again could show the others he's a player. If he's the Mole, his approach would not be conducive to sabotaging this game at this point - he's been low key and in the background and "All For One" was a more in-your-face interpersonal game. Plus, of course if he knew the fix was in for the next game with his "exemption-worthy" comment then he can easily take that mission off. It's reasonable. I can say that the revolt in "Travelers" where Mark was a ringleader, Nicole was a loud protester and Paul was also a loud protester does fit if THEY are players as all can take a free shot at looking suspicious while avoiding an essentially impossible task and giving their suspected Mole an exemption. That does fit. PS - Yeah Yeah I know I forgot to mention the CRG graffiti in the cell
With the next episode, Craig basically was not very helpful in Grapes of Cache. I felt his cause was a bit hurt I guess by the fact that this was such a success anyway. It was a weird task. Basically the early rounds could go pretty much forever - Mark is walking after all. I guess a good Mole plan would be to answer a bunch early and then screw up the last 2 or so to put Mark at running pace for as long as possible. I guess. But it's tough to see a full on sabotage here from Craig. On the jump, I can't say he'd be expected to succeed, though his throw did appear to be pretty random (though it was kinda close actually). In the Smart/Dumb task Nicole is right in the sense that it did seem that Craig tried to screw up the whole 55/56 thing (though to be fair he seemed to correct some Nicole bad math later - or was he reinforcing it?). Nicole did have 238 btw and Craig did persuade her to have it as 228 - thus it's conceivable that if Nicole's original answer were used they'd only be one number off - it is possible a Mole Craig would do this on purpose. He really did screw with Clay at the end of the task (232? no it's 233 Craig. 231?) before keying in the right number - was he just messin' or was that a last ditch sabotage effort? Ticket to Ride was basically a pass as I said earlier, though it is true nobody picked him as a person to trust.
So on to this episode. Man did Craig mess up a lot with Nicole as his eyes! Nicole did mess up by answering Craig's question, though Craig asked a question that was designed to be answered as opposed to merely trying to direct Nicole. In the soccer part, he swings wildly on his 2nd kick then sort of immediately pivoted himself before kicking the ball a mile away. He bumps the table in the tea-pouring and then plays hide the chalk and walks achingly slow on the plank. If he's the Mole, Nicole's right and he Mooed it up a lot. In the 2nd game maybe Craig really was supposed to get out first and be the shooter, but I'm not sure if it's editing where he seems to yell "Go! Go!" right when Paul gets onto the field (bringing attention to Paul) or not. He gets near the end of the course but it looked like he got pegged pretty easily when he did get hit. Now, the thing is that would the Mole allow a player to get an exemption that late in the game? (Even one he said was on the side of 'good'?) I'm not so sure, though of course maybe he didn't know he had the card.
So there's your case CRAIGFOMOs. And I do have to say while I didn't really put these all together until this late juncture it's pretty persuasive. BUT...part of me says I've come too far to be switching...and another part of me remembers season one where I all but got off the Kathryn bandwagon at the end and stuck it out almost in spite of myself then...and it's not like there's no case for Nicole over the course of the game, because there still is. So while I can't say I'd be surprised if he is, I'll still say that Craig is NOT the Mole. Mole probability 48.5%
1) Which brings us to Nicole. It's kinda funny because the moment that Paul got knocked out I was thinking "Man, I can finally put a high percentage up there with Nicole this feels good" but as is now pretty evident that's not the case. But, still there is a case for Nicole. She did succeed in getting a bag at the start (with no $ in it) but task 1 isn't always a sabotage by it's very nature. The beach deal still is really really suspect in the sense that Jon asked a question ("who's the biggest whiner") that seemed to have exactly one answer at this point ("Nicole"). This has been a tough hurdle to overcome for me in considering others - it really is a pretty neat set up. (Now I will say that a piece of Craig logic would say that Craig's behavior prior to that message was that of good sport - that is it'd be impossible for HIM to get selected as "Whiner" and thus ensure he could have a role in the Crusoe game and get to Mole some things up but I digress). Mathematically the 1st exemption seems of little value (you only have a 1/11 chance of getting eliminated) but it's tough to think that one PLAYER would get that edge. Now one thing that goes against is the fact that she didn't whine until she knew she was outside - something she couldn't control - but of course the criteria may have changed or she would've found a way to whine or annoy the others even if she was placed inside.
Anyhow, in Race to the Summit, Nicole does first suggest the good runners be the Uphill Climb team instead of Craig and Liz. She then proceeds to play a pretty horrible goalie in the task itself. She does board the 1st gondola (not necessarily Molish) though one thing I don't think I noted before but must be clear is that Mark and Kristen must have beaten EVERYONE to the top of the hill since they were invited to come out after the others all were there (it's hard to believe the Gondola 1 people showed, then somehow Mark and Kristen slipped in). It's plausible that she knew the time on the soccer field was enough of a delay - no further molishness needed. In the pig catching game she was on Alex's crew which basically meant they were automatically going to get a bunch of pigs due to his spanish speaking. She did help launch pigs in what a fairly successful effort, though things were going worse with her launching before Craig showed up and improved things.
Fruit of the Luge (and again of course this hidden clue sponsored by Apple) - Nicole specifically integrates the Green Apple into the sabotage itself by double speaking it to Alex (now some might think they both planned it - i.e. that Alex/Nicole has an actual coalition that wasn't shown and that he never was picking her but just trying to mislead others - another reasonable thing but I digress again). As an "out front" Mole it's a reasonable sabotage. Even if she's not the Mole, there's a part of me that thinks this type of a Mole would be kinda cool - the "I'm Trying So Hard to Act Like The Mole I Can't Be The Mole" Mole. Real $ came out as a result of Nicole's messing Alex up. In the Dress Code task she does succeed in getting clothing, that is true, so that does kind go against her case.
In Midas Rush Nicole does a small sabotage in the sense of taking like only 4 or 5 bricks (I think Kristen supposedly took 12) and dawdling a bit (though they make it). She backs Kristen at first but jumps to see Clay's point about never having an exemption. There is no breakdown though so it's hard to say something happened there. In Who Said That there is definitely some obvious sabotage by her in failing to answer correctly and also being over the top in giving away the answer to Kristen - is $4k really a lot in terms of sabotage? I'm not so sure.
In All For One, Nicole doesn't do much outside of briefly protesting Kristen's desire to get out second but doesn't do much more than that. She does say in a confessional "I wouldn't have let a single soul out if it was up to me" - of course if she's the Mole, it might not really be up to her, right?
In Travelers she does protest Craig's choices loudly at the start (before Mark's ringleadership occurs) and does have no problem with opting out, though Mole's should lead such things more than follow it's true.
With the Grapes of Cache game though, there does seem to be something up with Nicole for sure. Laughably on question one she initially supports and answer that's not even one of the choices (though some would say a play-Mole was trying too hard there). She only really seems to solve one answer (that weird ABC puzzle) and is pretty much useless on the other ones by and large. She picks a fight with Paul and keeps it going and going which was the one true case of something happening that really served to add more to Mark's burden (since Paul was answering back with her rather than working on giving out coordinates). In the Swing Out game she shows great form on the jump and ridiculously horrible inaccuracy in the throw being way way off target.
By the way somewhere in the midst of this - perhaps at the start of Grapes of Cache we see a sign for "Winery" - perhaps a clue for Dr. Whiner? Okay maybe that's a stretch.
In the Go Figure game she seems to do fine with Craig even correcting him until the last number is done. She does come back with a ludicrous answer of 227 on the do-over which is certainly on the suspicious side. Ticket to Ride was a freebie - now she did go last and preferred not to have Clay in a position of "3" votes saying she didn't want him to do too much - now possibly she could be tipping she knew the task though it's just as possible that a player would want to spread things out. The theatrics of her supposed self-execution are pretty over the top and frankly if she were the Mole it would seem to serve as a great cover by seeming to want out. She has been doing a lot of the "I'm Gone" thing of late that is for sure. Is that a way to cover her as the Mole, or is it a way to dramatically show how the "Whiner" turned to "Winner" - tough to say.
In this week's episode she's on the flipside of the Craig equation. She doesn't seem to do a very good job on the camera actually (Craig's hands are big, but they really shouldn't take up the whole camera). Shaking the camera around to say stop?!? That is a weird strategy for sure - I think that would make a mistake MORE likely. Oh and of course I forgot the fact that she did answer Craig - if Craig's a player that would be a great test to throw at the Mole to shore up your suspicions.
In the paintball task, Nicole names her cell right away. Now the one thing that helps the Mole case here is that if the Mole DOES know what cell number WON'T be designated for the exemption she can ensure that she gets it and thus leave the exemption amongst the players (A "Fairer" situation). The sabotage is straighforward - getting pegged when you just about have made it out totally seems to make sense.
So there you go. There is still a case out there for Nicole. It's become tougher to stick it out but I've come this far so I think I have to now, right?
A few thoughts that haven't been dropped elsewhere in this one.
The lie-detecting stuff in terms of reading their face when they answer is still pretty interesting. Craig's is really tough - his eyebrows do not move very obviously so that's a pretty tough call. In the recap episode he says he's not the Mole but he's nodding his head yes (which would seem to say he IS the Mole). Similarly though, in the last episode when Nicole says she's not the Mole she Raises her eyebrows (A sign of a lie) and doesn't shake her head no.
I'm curious if it turns out to be Craig whether or not they've actually had him pegged for a while. Mark has proffered Craig AND Nicole, sorta pushing Nicole to Clay but at a certain time you gotta cut your buddy loose and I'm wondering if that's what that was. Paul was being consistent when he said Craig was his leading suspect all along (he says so in Ep. 1 as well) - now he got eliminated on a non-tie-breaker but it's plausible that Question 6 screwed him up (it's the only one I've seen that lists the players Right to Left). Btw, this does seem to be the type of question that goes beyond the question of who the Mole is and more so gets into the observant part I'd say. Alex getting eliminated would seem to blow up Nicole (and really might) but what if he either was throwing that out as a fake (and truly suspected Craig) or switched somehow before that quiz where he was knocked out?
Craig didn't seem to react at all to Mark getting the exemption btw which was kinda weird.
Craig has never had his name entered into the computer. That also is kinda weird.
Nicole did offer a wacky 5-letter theory pointing to Bobby way back in episode 3. Craig does sorta have 5 letters.
Okay I've gotten into pretty minute stuff now I guess. Should be a fun one this week (I'm assuming this week will be a Cliffhanger with a How the Mole did it next week - at least I hope so as that'd be more fun).
Cheers everyone! And thanks for the page views
-QG
