"I never said they were prime conditions, but only brought it up to point out that ties at the final 4, the necessary set up for this hypothetical blindside, are not uncommon."
I wanted to point out that "Prime conditions" and "necessary set up" sound awfully synonymous to me.
But I think we covered the situation. I'll end by saying that there is a difference between what is conceivable and what is realistic. So when you write:
"one could conceive of a situation where such a plan would make strategic sense"
I have two objections:
- The Seattle Mariners are in last place in the West, 27 games out of first but, with 50 games left, they aren't mathematically eliminated. They could,
conceivably, still finish first but it isn't being realistic.
- Although more realistic than a Mariners recovery, the 2-1-1 vote doesn't make overall strategic sense.
There are two ways a 2-1-1 vote could happen:
- Your scenario, which I'd call the offensive play, where the players have to stupidly give the game to one of the players that was in a weak position
after the F4 challenge, Cirie in our example. That scenario can never make strategic sense.
- The China scenario where Amanda could have voted Courtney after leading Denise to vote Todd. That's what I'd call the defensive play. This makes
somewhat more sense but mainly with the F3 twist. Even then, the other two players would make fun of Amanda's lack of courage during final TC and Denise
would feel that Amanda laughed at her instead of showing loyalty. In a F2 season, Amanda would have put herself in a position where she would have needed to
win final immunity but, in this case, she was probably there anyway.
Finally, I want to point to this:
"If you alter that scenario slightly and imagine that Tom was also considered a goat"
If Tom was a goat, everything changes. There wouldn't be a 2-1-1 vote either because now Katie would vote with Tom and Jen to get rid of Ian. She'd
have someone that she could beat. Why give the nerdy dolphin trainer a chance to win it all?
Anyway, if he was a goat, Tom could have seen Koror throw a challenge to get rid of him before the merge. That's what happens when you change a parameter.
