Hey there Mole Fans. Good news and bad news this week. The good news is that my summary and Mole rankings are up early this week. The bad news is that due to computer foul-ups, my internet access will be pretty limited until after the next episode (I'm not working on Monday - it's somebody's birthday J) so I might not be able to respond to anybody before then. My apologies in advance.
QUICK REMINDER (though nobody's done this). This is a spoiler-free thread. If there's a ghost of a whiff of a chance of a spoiler please don't put it in this thread. Thanks again J
And for all the folks who've said such kind things I really, really appreciate it!
One last note before the good stuff - please support the Mole advertisers and tell 'em how much you appreciate their support of the show - it can't but help give us a chance at more summertime Mole fun down the road I would think J
Anyhow, on to the rankings! (I have re-watched all 4 episodes before putting these percentages together, btw.) I'll have a tiny bit of stuff possibly from the earlier episodes. I had hoped to do a full cross-analysis of the quizzes as well, but it looks like I'll have to save that for the next episode's review I guess. Given that the Mole selections for at least one player (Bobby) seem quite obvious (by the look on his face when Ali took the bribe), it may be possible to try and tease out a little bit about who is or isn't the Mole. Or maybe not. The funny thing about the show is it's possible for EVERY player to know who the Mole is all the way - somebody will fail the quiz and get eliminated. It's also possible that EVERY player got only say 1 to 3 right and are totally off track. Again, all but 1 of them will be safe. Since we don't know the actual quiz results, we really don't know how everyone's doing which is a big part of the fun J
10) Uh, Bobby didn't come back so like he definitely ain't the Mole. Mole probability 0%.
9) Uh, neither did Ali. Again, Mole probability 0%.
8) Victoria L. Well the good news is that I've now got some newly release Mole percentages to play with. That's also the bad news along with the fact that the lovely Victoria will no longer grace our screen (at least until the finale). Mole probability 0%.
Okay now for the true long shots:
7) Kristen. Other than the bicycle climb, it's really, really, really hard to pinpoint failures that you can relate to her. I guess she coulda tried to push Bobby and Craig harder in the wheelbarrow challenge, but she's real got a great track record of getting money in the pot. She carried the most bars on her team. She got her question right (okay with ridiculous help from Nicole). She got all the fruits lined up right and succeeded in the clothes challenge. As I even type this I'm revising her number downward. I would be genuinely STUNNED if Kristen were the Mole. But of course, Kristen is not the Mole. Mole probability 0.2%
6) Paul. Paul has plummeted a long way in my rankings. He's been really good about stirring dissention in the ranks of the players, but I really don't see this having a negative effect on his performance or the performance of the other players. It seems like his game is to hope people think he's the Mole because he is stirring this up, but I don't think that's working. He did fine on the gold mission, though he did ambivalently cost $2k in the Who Said What mission. But by-and-large he looks more and more like a player (his near acceptance of the bribe struck me as genuine). Paul is not the Mole. Mole probability 1.5%
5) Alex. Alex seems to be playing a relatively "keep to himself" type of game actually, at least I don't think he's a big info gatherer (he's treated his journal with ambivalence the whole game). Nothing suspicious in the gold game though he did lose $2k with his guess. It would be Mole-like to keep his journal safe (you gotta believe the Mole knew what was going to happen to them with the fire). Still, I don't think his over-all performance seems to add up to being the Mole. He has been one of the bigger money-getters (witness the pig challenge). I'm just not seeing it from him. Alex is not the Mole. Mole probability 2.0%
4) Craig. A lot of this would be predicated on him getting removed from the game for a day on purpose (thank goodness this isn't like that island-based reality show eh?). That is possible (remove the Mole, stir up trouble with the others, get them to be jealous of his keeping his journal, it's not completely unreasonable). His removal from that game can be seen as having cost $2k in the Who Said What challenge since the maximum they could get right became 7, instead of 8. Still, a heavy man carrying about 40 pounds or so on his back up a steep hill in cold weather with thin air and succeeding just in time?!? That really goes strongly against him being the Mole - it'd just be way too easy for him to barely fail and make it look real there. And I don't think you can really fake the redness in his face. Still, Craig doesn't exactly have a long line of successes during the game and there are certain failures like the fruit challenge. But I just really don't see him being the Mole. Mole probability 3.2%
On to the more plausible candidates:
3) Clay. Clay really holds a middle ground here with me. There have been a lot of recent failures (or non-successes on his part) and it makes it a lot tougher to dismiss him like it is with the others above. The fruit challenge was NOT one of those cases (Bobby was the talker first - I checked again). But the laundry challenge certainly could have been. The gold rush game also was definitely a case where that coulda been a Mole strong-arm (though I really think that is a strong PLAYER move really - you either get an exemption or throw major suspicion upon yourself or even both - that's a winning player move there). He was one of the many many failures in the beach challenge (that's a tough one to grade as really Marcie, (remember her?) was probably the biggest hero in that game. He could just be a guy that's spent a lot of time with the Mole and knows it. Deep down it's not impossible, but I really believe Clay is not the Mole. Mole probability 8.0%
2) Mark. Okay I'll even cop that I am pretty close to being stubborn here (and the temptation of being able to say I was right all along, which is not possible if I pick Mark, is quite alluring for sure). I'm Guy enough to admit that. If the episodes were played backwards he very well could be further up the list here and MarkFOMOs you may just win me over yet. But MarkFOMOs you will like the percentage I give this week, I assure you. Taken individually Mark's actions don't really seem like too much, but collectively they really do indicate at least a potential pattern. Outside of the bicycle climb challenge, I can't really say that I think he's been a particularly harmful Mole, but perhaps the players have just barely gotten the better of him a couple times. Going back to the beginning, he succeeds in his jump. This is a good start for a subtle Mole as he builds a go-getter type of personality (here better be money in here!). Kathryn was cast in a hero role early in season one, so it certainly does make sense. In the beach challenge, he controlled the bell. The only real "throwaway" attempt was the first one (which included the Victrola that he did yell out for them to look for). I'm not sure if he put the 2nd gun on the table (though it could be reasoned that's a cover your bases play). Still if you look at it, he actually maximized money on the task - the last two items (including the tea kettle - more on that in a bit) were still out in the field. The hill challenge, pretty self-explanatory. Take money out of the pot, but still look a "gamer" by sparing the $5k taxi ride. They did get lost in the pigs game and perhaps he thought they had managed to delay enough to keep all the pigs from getting launched (he started to look to blame others for that even before the end of that game) and he does offer to "help" though Alex wouldn't let him. That could just be essentially a failure by the Mole. I also think (and I'm sure it's been massively commented on elsewhere even though I haven't read it) how in a couple of the shots at the execution Mark is just about perfectly framed in Green where the green highlighted statue is behind him. It's plausible. The green apple theme is plausible as well (there was one in the cabin in episode one as well as Mark eating one in episode three). Whoa, wait QuizGuy, what do you mean with the apple, what does that have to do with him?!? While Bobby may have associated it with New York, perhaps the old adage the apple for the TEACHER was more at play. I really can't discount that and frankly the guy does lead in plausible hidden clues at this rate. Still the fruit challenge is one where he does nothing suspicious - they get the full $14k (he teamed up again with Kristen). I find it interesting that he seems to be with Kristen or Clay on almost all his missions. Perhaps the Mole finds the best game-players (and less suspected people) are the best cover for him. This is pretty reasonable. If he's the Mole, he had no problem letting Clay give him an opening to drop an easy $5k in the clothing game. Who knows, it's entirely possible that he's a player teaming up with his coalition partner, or the Mole using his fake partner to advance his ends. With the most recent episode we see Mark change a little even before the loss of the journals. He is pretty cranky again on that hill climb and he does sacrifice $1000 by grabbing the scale (though I will add that that is a perfect offset in weight). Loading up the other guys could have been a Mole gamble (as in there's no way Craig will make it) that again failed. If he's the Mole and is subtle I think his position in this game is reasonable though (dropping all the money looking for an exemption would seem to be way too attention grabbing). He did get his question right in the Who Said What challenge - on what seemed a hard question. The theatrics of his reaction to the book burning really brought to mind his early mention of his family which seemed over the top. The notes have been a HUGE part of his story arc and even been thrown in the others (The Alex/Bobby journal thing). Frankly the large bulk of the quiz questions seem to be really easy enough to remember without notes with only a few exceptions (the massage type, exact age, where they were standing relative to Jon). Oh and as a final thing, I might be crazy but I could swear I saw a teapot brewing in the shot behind Mark at the last dinner before the last execution. But maybe I'm crazy and that's not a clue. And after ALL the above, I'm still stubborn and still have to say Mark is not the Mole. Mole probability of 42.0% But I'm not even sure if I believe that myself ;)
Which brings us back to Mole Mole Mole Mole…
1) Nicole. I still have to stick with my original as she hasn't disqualified herself yet (and might not until she's actually executed). It is still totally possibly to frame her game as that of an upfront and in-your-face type of Mole. Basically the "I'm trying so hard to look the Mole, I couldn't POSSIBLY be the Mole" type of game. She does seem to lose money a fair amount of the time and if the producers decided they wanted to "shock" us they have given enough story lines to leave that room there. She did catch the bag at first, like Mark, though in a completely crazy way. She did cause turmoil and did sabotage that was probably more effective than Paul because she at least could've cost sleep in the beach challenge and really did seem to get handed that spot (who else would be considered the whiner at that point? Nobody. The idea that that could be a setup is still sound, especially as that failed challenge would allow the players to initial suspect each other (basically an alternate build to what's to come). She did suggest athletic people for the bike challenge first it seems - and heck you gotta figure there's at least a good chance that the Mole would want to keep the Soccer Coach away from the soccer side of the challenge. As goalie, time wasting would be very possible there too. The pig challenge is slightly troubling in the sense that she really did seem to contribute once Craig was her slingshot partner. 28 seems like a very successful pig total really. The next episode gave us the other plausible Green Apple theory as a hidden clue as she introduced the double Green Apple to Alex. And heck, the avocado just plain disappeared from sight - did she not even mention it? This may seem transparent and it's possible seeing Jon eat the apple even made her think quick to highlight it but facts are facts. That $12,000 lost is more than what Mark did in damage with the clothing challenge. (Plus the graffiti wall pseudo-clue came in here, but I'm not sure even I buy that one). Maybe the Mole's job was done for the day right there and she didn't feel the need to sabotage anymore. Now in the hill challenge the easier version of dropping the gold bars would be to never load them in your bag in the first place. 4 seems like a really weak number - even Victoria took on more! She didn't really do much attempted sabotage (it's tough to "slow down" when there's an even slower team behind you) and perhaps the roughest thing of all, at least in terms of hurting her chances as Mole was the fact that she pretty much easily rolled over when Clay wanted to take the exemption from Kristen. It seems like that would be a great chance for a Mole to step in and say no-no-no-no-no. But again, maybe that'd be too far out of character (her sticking up for Kristen's spirit) for the rest of the way she has been. The Who Said What game was an almost comical sabotage that was in fact successful. It looked completely ridiculous for sure, but again the Mole who's pretending to be the Mole needs to actually look this ridiculous in order to look like a player. Get it? J In terms of story framing, the clues that would lead me to think Nicole might actually be the 'surprise' Mole would be the fact that we have the 'tension' of (presumably but we don't know for sure) her being the person to survive by 5 seconds on a tie. She mentions her "answer the questions as fast as possible strategy" in a voiceover during the quiz. It's totally possible that could've been done any time. If we see a "shock" Alex exit after his repeated suspicions of Nicole (at least mentioned) that would again possibly be put out as a deception to the audience (Alex is gone, so there's NO WAY Nicole's the Mole). Still, I will cop to the fact that if episode one hadn't happened I might not be here with this projection right now. But I'm a stubborn old QuizGuy and there's still a lot there to make the case for her. I'll still say it. Nicole is the Mole. Mole probability 43.1%
So there you have it Mole fans!!!!
Sorry again about my possible lack of responsiveness here over the next few days.
I'll humbly ask that those reading this possibly give a bump or two on Sunday night (when I've usually posted this) for those fans that might be looking for it then.
Happy Mole Hunting Everyone!
(the soon to be older)
-QG
