I agree that had Amanda been eliminated instead of Alexis at Final 6, then the Final 3 would most likely have been Parvati, Alexis and Natalie, but I think
your ideas for what happens after that are pretty dubious. There's no particular reason to believe that Alexis would have won the Final challenge, but
you're right that she would have taken Natalie if she did. If Parvati won, should would have also taken Natalie. If Natalie won, I'm not sure which
girl she would take. Anyway, if the Final 2 wound up being Alexis vs. Natalie I think it would have gone like this:
Parvati - Natalie
Cirie - Natalie
Erik - Alexis
Amanda - Natalie?
James - Natalie?
Jason - Alexis?
Ozzy - Alexis
Eliza - Natalie
So I give Natalie the slight edge here. I think she would have either won 5-3 or tied. I think Alexis would have talked about how she supposedly played an honest game and never lied to anyone, and the jury would have responded to her the same way they responded to Amanda.
ETA: By the way, there's NO WAY that Parvati would have given up in the Final 3 IC if she was with Alexis and Natalie. That would be crazy. I do think she semi-threw it in the version of events that actually happened though, because she knew Amanda and Cirie would both take her. Parvati even suggests this in one of her interviews. But like I said, no way she would have done that against Alexis and Natalie. I'm sure she would have assumed that they would take each other. (On a side note, that would have been a reason to vote her off over Cirie at Final 4, had Parvati known there was going to be another IC at Final 3.)
Parvati - Natalie
Cirie - Natalie
Erik - Alexis
Amanda - Natalie?
James - Natalie?
Jason - Alexis?
Ozzy - Alexis
Eliza - Natalie
So I give Natalie the slight edge here. I think she would have either won 5-3 or tied. I think Alexis would have talked about how she supposedly played an honest game and never lied to anyone, and the jury would have responded to her the same way they responded to Amanda.
ETA: By the way, there's NO WAY that Parvati would have given up in the Final 3 IC if she was with Alexis and Natalie. That would be crazy. I do think she semi-threw it in the version of events that actually happened though, because she knew Amanda and Cirie would both take her. Parvati even suggests this in one of her interviews. But like I said, no way she would have done that against Alexis and Natalie. I'm sure she would have assumed that they would take each other. (On a side note, that would have been a reason to vote her off over Cirie at Final 4, had Parvati known there was going to be another IC at Final 3.)
