TheLurkerSpeaks wrote: (update in italics)
I think it is harder to rank the runners up than the winners. The winners actually all achieved their goal so we can evaluate how they got there. With the losers, there's a lot more question of whether they could have won if only ...
Still, the criteria should be the same. Split the game between positioning skill and popularity skill.
Positioning
Clay
Rob
Colby
Twila
Matt
Amanda
Cassandra
Lillian
Danielle
Kim
Katie
Ozzy
Courtney
Kelly
Stephenie
Neleh
Rob and Clay each worked their positioning game to perfection (almost). Rob was the strategist for his pairing, making it so either he won or his girlfriend did, but I agree he made an arguable mistake in burning Tom at F5. Clay never gets enough credit for the symbiotic relationship he developed with Brian that came within a vote of success.
Colby did get outmaneuvered by Tina, but that's nothing to be too ashamed of. Taking Tina was an error, of course, but he did go into that decision knowing what he was doing.
As others have mentioned, Twila did know when to make her move, and she pulled it off.
Matt may be an enigma, but his errors are in the other half of the equation. Much like Clay, he recognized another player as his ticket through the game, and he played Rob like a fiddle (even as Rob played him in turn). He let Rob lead the way and make the enemies while he kept Rob comfortable by playing the fool and thus not a threat. He also set up Alex as a challenge threat. Really, it is remarkable how well Matt played in this aspect considering where he started.
Let's stick Amanda here. She did form a bond with Parvati and Cirie that got her to the end, and she wasn't badly situated before Ozzy's ouster either. She might have been higher except she basically got outmaneuvered by Parvati into an alliance she didn't really want. Her biggest mistake was probably burning Erik in favor of Natalie, but that move didn't end up costing her.
I put Cassandra next because it is evident she had groomed Dreamz to be her goat, and she may well have won if there had been an F2 and Dreamz had beaten Earl in F3 immunity. Still she may have waited far too long to make a move against Earl and Yau Man, who she clearly would not have beaten at the end. To her credit, she did try, but was foiled by Yau Man's play of the idol. (Obviously, I am placing her ahead of Dreamz even though they technically tied for second.)
Lillian made a lot of moves though it is difficult to see that all of them benefited her greatly. She certainly did keep her eye on the finals though and was willing to dump the coattails she was riding as it suited her.
Danielle did alright in this aspect, or at least the evidence is that she was working this aspect. She probably made a mistake in voting out Courtney and giving the control to Aras and Cirie, but she was able to cut a deal with Terry to sneak herself past. She probably should have been more active in positioning though.
Kim and Katie are the true coattail riders. Both stuck to their initial alliance and let it carry them. There's not much to separate them.
Ozzy was also a coattail rider, and more he was one who knew he was on the outside of his alliance. I place him below the above two primarily because of his thrown challenge that weakened his position later in the game when he lacked allies. He possibly could have cut a deal with the Raro elements later to improve his position, but instead he relied on winning immunity to keep him safe.
Courtney was another coattail rider, but she wasn't even consistent in that, throwing votes at players her allies were counting on to maintain a majority. She got to the end basically by being no threat and because Todd wanted her there, and unlike some of those above, there's no real evidence that this was her plan all along.
Kelly didn't know what she was doing, which is understandable since she was in the first season. But detatching herself from the alliance without finding some other deal was just ridiculous positioning, hence the need for her immunity run.
Stephenie was letting Rafe run the show, but she actually sabotaged her own position with her voting out of Jamie and Judd, let alone the failure to remove Danni.
Finally, there's Neleh, who had to be led into even the most obvious positioning move against the Rotu 4, who then refused to consider deals with Tammy and Robert as the Rotu 4 were pagonged all while making it obvious that Vee and Sean were next out. She was far too passive at the positioning game.
Popularity
Colby
Neleh
Kelly
Ozzy
Kim
Clay
Amanda
Courtney
Stephenie
Rob
Lillian
Danielle
Cassandra
Katie
Matt
Twila
Colby's by far the most popular runner up ever, and it isn't without reason. He provided and worked hard and got along with people (to their face anyway).
Neleh's whole strategy was to avoid offending anyone, and she was well-liked. It's just that her failure to take responsibility for her votes backfired against her.
Kelly's very similar in that she tried to be nice as a strategy, and it almost worked (except that it angered those she previously had been allied with).
Ozzy's near win was based upon this aspect as he apparently got along well with most of the Raros, particularly Nate and Parvati. He did annoy Candice and Jonathan though with his consistent taunting. Again, the competition on this list isn't very tough.
Kim was not really a popular figure, but she didn't make enemies either (except for Tom, who probably couldn't be helped). I'm surprised she ranks this high except for the truly bad social players among the runners up.
Clay could be a good social player as he proved with regard to Penny, Erin, and Ken, or he could be an awful social player as he proved with regard to Helen and Jake.
Amanda must be improving since I'll rate her performance over that of Courtney. She still didn't really make the bonds she needed to make with the fans except Erik, who she later burned, but at least she made some genuine relationships this time around with Ozzy and James (and Erik did forgive her in the end). Too bad she didn't make sure Parvati ended up on the jury to vote for her.
Courtney's not really all that good a social player, but she stayed true to who she is and thus appeared genuine at least, and that was an improvement over Amanda. Expressing dislike for everyone apparently reduces its impact.
Stephenie developed a strong following aided by her celebrity status, but she sabotaged it with needless blindsides.
Likewise for Rob who almost certainly threw away the win by how he handled the boots.
Lillian's sour complaining made enemies, especially when she threw in a knife to the back (at least in the minds of those booted).
From the backstabbers, we move to the do-nothings. Danielle's decision to play quietly may have gotten her further, but it didn't make nearly enough friends.
Cassandra's game was actually much like Danielle's, playing in the shadows and mainly refusing to make deals. She was not greatly respected by her fellow players as a result.
Likewise, Katie's laziness cost her respect from her jury. Adding her caustic comments meant she was cutting off her potential votes.
Then there's Matt, who's strategy of acting clueless and crazy actually drove people away. For all the good his positioning did him, he had no chance of winning a vote.
Worst of all, there's Twila, who actually antagonized the other players during the jury proceedings. She only got the vote of her loyal ally and that of Ami, who was more disgusted with Chris. Julie and Eliza preferred to vote for the player who needlessly stabbed them rather than vote for Twila.
Simple combining of the scores leads to:
Colby 4 (4)
Clay 7 (7)
Rob 11 (12)
Amanda - (13)
Kim 14 (15)
Ozzy 15 (16)
Kelly 16 (17)
Neleh 17 (18)
Lillian 17 (19)
Cassandra 18 (20)
Matt 19 (20)
Twila 19 (20)
Danielle 19 (21)
Courtney 19 (21)
Stephenie 22 (24)
Katie 23 (25)
But my preference leans toward positioning so doubling that score and adding the popularity score gives us:
Colby 7 (7)
Clay 8 (8)
Rob 13 (14)
Amanda - (19)
Twila 23 (24)
Kim 23 (25)
Matt 24 (25)
Lillian 24 (27)
Cassandra 24 (27)
Ozzy 26 (28)
Danielle 27 (30)
Kelly 29 (31)
Courtney 31 (34)
Neleh 32 (34)
Katie 33 (36)
Stephenie 36 (39)
This approximates my overall view. Note the huge gap between the first three and the rest, which Amanda slips into - she's clearly above average as far as runners up go.
