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I think we all agree that there is no really good edgic pick this year that fits the traditional mold. Given that, I think it is important to think about past winners that didn't fit the mold and what happened.

Wtih Danni, you had a winner that said she did most of her strategizing away from the cameras. You also had a popular returning player who made a deep run in the game. Given that, the editors chose to tell the story of why Stephanie lost. The end may not have been all that satisfying to viewers, but you had a good series and that was the decision they made.

With Bob, you had a nice guy who worked hard and got to the end without a lot of strategy. It is hard to make a rather single dimensional person all that multi dimensional. You also can't show strategy that just isn't there. In the end, the editors went for a straight OTTP winner because that was who Bob was and it left a feel good story at the end.

It is clear that this season is the story of Russell. Given that, can we look at how the various characters have been edited and look at the choices the editors have made. I think the key question is could the editors have made different choices so that the characters could more closely have fit the edgic guidelines or have they been forced to show what we are seeing.

Lets look at the contenders:

Russell - I was an early Russell fan and had him on my winner list since the early stages despite the OTTNN/CPNN. It is clear that this guy is good TV and there is no way editors are leaving that stuff on the cutting room floor. But no player in Survivor history has ever had visibility this high much less a winner. And how many times do they need to beat us over the head with the small little minds stuff? If Russell had won, he still would have gotten a similar edit but I think the volume would have been turned down a notch or two. While as a viewer I am rooting for a Russell win, I don't think he does.

Jaison - It is clear from the last episode that Jaison is a really interesting articulate person. Untill now, we really haven't seen that. The editors also had to show how miserable it was, but my guess is that they had miles of footage from almost everyone. They choose to show Jaison almost quiting. They didn't have to show that. It also wasn't one quick scene but a series of scenes over two episodes. Jaison is not our winner.

Natalie - She is clearly playing a smart social game. If you just ignore her first three episodes she would be the clear choice. But you can't just ignore those episodes. I am sure that there is a ton of footage of her doing what she is doing now for the first nine days. I am also sure they had a great introductory confessional from her that they could have used rather than say Mick. They didn't use any of that because she isn't our winner.

Shambo - Shambo has been shown to be a bumbling idiot. Nice and well intentioned, but awful at the social game and losing chickens left and right. My sense is that the Shambo we are seeing is pretty much who she is. Maybe Shambo somehow stumbles her way to the end and essentially wins the vote as a vote against Russell. If Shambo was the winner would they have some all of those negative scenes? They might have particularly if they come up in the FTC. My gut says it isn't Shambo but I guess I can't rule her out.

Mick - The problem with Mick is that he is too boring, UTR, no strategy, etc. Is there anything we have been shown to suggest that isn't just who Mick is? Maybe he is a smart guy who keeps his mouth shut and his ears open. He is a strong athelete who has never been a boot target so why get involved? Maybe we haven't been shown anything interesting about Mick because there isn't anything interesting to show. Erik's comment at the last TC was interesting. He essentially said that Mick understands his position and is taking it like a man. Maybe that is just who he is and maybe that gets him to the win in the end. Given a boring winner, the editors have not surprisingly focused on Russell who is TV gold. They gave Mick a nice opening confessional and have kept him in the picture but there isn't much more of a story to tell.

My winners:

Mick

gap

Shambo

big gap

Russell

scepticA wrote:

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Re my Mick pick - I get the sense that I'm falling for an Amanda-type edit, when the winner becomes bloody obvious in the first post-merge ep. And to me this person is likely Jaison. I'm still trying to get my head around all of his "this so sucks, going on Survivor is the worst decision I've ever made" stuff in an early episode, which truly soured me on him. But was that little more than narration? I don't think so. it was personal - which IMO is both good (the editors were making him a person and not a narrator) and bad (what he was saying wasn't the stuff of winners.) He is certainly on a redemption arc with his terrific merge edit (smart, open, and doesnt' take crap is a great winner in anyones' book) and is the person I think we are supposed to be rooting for right now.