Hey everyone. Thanks for the interesting debate.
I think one thing that needs to be considered is that, in all likelihood with the 100 times scenario, there would almost always be people like B.B., Jolanda, and the other early boots. Meaning that most winners would rarely, if ever, be a first boot.
I'm sure it would happen, but I don't think any of the winners would ever be clear, first boots.
That said, there are definitely certain winners who would be in rough spots if their tribe didn't perform well or if their tribes were swapped. Tina, clearly, would have an impossible road, for example, as well as other, less physically impressive players.
BUT keep in mind it's not about who would go deep most frequently. It's about who would WIN most frequently. And even if you were an early boot 15% of the time, if it means 85% of the other time you weren't an early boot you'd almost definitely win the season, then that's really all that matters.
With that criteria, I think you HAVE to look at people like Tina, Richard, and a few others as constant contenders. If Tina makes the merge, she has huge odds of victory. Likewise, if Hatch made the merge I think the same. (Bear in mind, no one would no who he was.)
I find it very hard to pick whom I think would win most often, but I think certain players stand out:
- Hatch: Aside from when he gets booted first, he'd almost always be kept around despite his arrogance due to his providing skills and above average (but not threatening) performance skills. And at the merge, he would have the ability to completely control the game (if he hadn't done so already). Obviously, it wouldn't work all the time, and his arrogance would get him every now and then, but I think he'd have a chance to win frequently.
- Earl: I agree that he might win the most often. The ability to be perceived as a non-threat by being above average with anything, but then be able to control the game at any second is a great strategy.
- Vecepia and Danni: Very similar to Earl.
- Chris: The only reason he almost became a first boot in his season was because of one challenge that just didn't fit him. He seemed to do all right with every challenge after that. He's also amicable, and would be kept around for being an average competitor. And once he had the chance to take hold of the game, he would.
- Brian: Similar to Hatch, if he made the merge he'd likely have gained control of the game.
Also, regarding Sandra, I'm torn. On one hand, I'd like to think that she's such a good talker that she'd talk her way out of ever getting voted off. On the other, I see the reasoning for why she'd often be an early boot. I kinda need to see her play on S20 before I make up my mind either way.
I think one thing that needs to be considered is that, in all likelihood with the 100 times scenario, there would almost always be people like B.B., Jolanda, and the other early boots. Meaning that most winners would rarely, if ever, be a first boot.
I'm sure it would happen, but I don't think any of the winners would ever be clear, first boots.
That said, there are definitely certain winners who would be in rough spots if their tribe didn't perform well or if their tribes were swapped. Tina, clearly, would have an impossible road, for example, as well as other, less physically impressive players.
BUT keep in mind it's not about who would go deep most frequently. It's about who would WIN most frequently. And even if you were an early boot 15% of the time, if it means 85% of the other time you weren't an early boot you'd almost definitely win the season, then that's really all that matters.
With that criteria, I think you HAVE to look at people like Tina, Richard, and a few others as constant contenders. If Tina makes the merge, she has huge odds of victory. Likewise, if Hatch made the merge I think the same. (Bear in mind, no one would no who he was.)
I find it very hard to pick whom I think would win most often, but I think certain players stand out:
- Hatch: Aside from when he gets booted first, he'd almost always be kept around despite his arrogance due to his providing skills and above average (but not threatening) performance skills. And at the merge, he would have the ability to completely control the game (if he hadn't done so already). Obviously, it wouldn't work all the time, and his arrogance would get him every now and then, but I think he'd have a chance to win frequently.
- Earl: I agree that he might win the most often. The ability to be perceived as a non-threat by being above average with anything, but then be able to control the game at any second is a great strategy.
- Vecepia and Danni: Very similar to Earl.
- Chris: The only reason he almost became a first boot in his season was because of one challenge that just didn't fit him. He seemed to do all right with every challenge after that. He's also amicable, and would be kept around for being an average competitor. And once he had the chance to take hold of the game, he would.
- Brian: Similar to Hatch, if he made the merge he'd likely have gained control of the game.
Also, regarding Sandra, I'm torn. On one hand, I'd like to think that she's such a good talker that she'd talk her way out of ever getting voted off. On the other, I see the reasoning for why she'd often be an early boot. I kinda need to see her play on S20 before I make up my mind either way.
