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getting real wrote:

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-Who voted for Natalie?

I 'fess up. I voted for Natalie. And here's my case for her:

As outlined a few episodes ago, she came onto my radar when I re-watched the first episode and found the scene with Betsy warning her not to trust Russell jumping out at me. It is a heavily manipulated scene and the concept of women's intuition being transferred from an eliminated player to someone else appealed to me.

Subsequently, she has bee shown to be one of the very few people not named Russell to have articulated a strategy, not only for getting to the end, but for winning. Moreover, her strategy nicely counters Russell's initial scornful attitude towards her - an attitude interestingly shown to be softening somewhat in the last episode.

Natalie's chat with Laura, and the special care taken to show the common ground between them, is one of the few instances where the editors have bothered to create connections and threads to FTC questioning. That is Mick's problem and the problem of anyone other than Russell and Shambo. The scene with Laura brings to mind Danni's birthday party where, rather gratuitously, connections were seen to be made with the opposing tribe. What is more, Natalie received negative SPV for that connection-building from a negative-tending Liz, whose immediate boot provides a nice editing imprimatur of Natalie's actions.

Mick obviously has solid Edgic numbers but his edit lacks 'meat'. It's not so much that he is boring. It's just that he has no ties to the FTC, no scenes which could be re-visited with a pay-off that would be satisfactory for the audience.

Russell and Shambo's edits obviously have substance; however, they are burdened with the problem of unrelenting visibility. Even to the extent of dominating the previouslys and the next times. In my view, a win to either of them would be a greater setback to Edgic theory than even a win by the invisibles. There is simply no good editing reason to showcase a winner in that way, to eschew even a modicum of cooling-down in favor of trumpeting their names at every twist and turn.

The evidence is that this is a season of how Russell and, to a lesser extent, Shambo lose. Natalie is the best fit of all the others.

just a quick comment with regards to this....
(BTW i love your reasoning GR.... I agree...Russell and Shambo just seem too big, and Mick just seems like he's there, flat)

One thing i noticed while doing the stats, was Natalie's INV episode (not unanimously) - epsiode 2 Betsy's boot episode

I remember actually thinking - "weird.... for the sheer volume of screen time Foa Foa got, Natalie was soooo hidden." EVERY member of Foa Foa had a 4 or more, except Mike (OTT3, went home) and Natalie. Considering the positiveness of Betsy, and the wrongness of her being voted out, i always felt like there was something deliberate about this episode, and specifically for hiding Natalie. In some ways.... it's like the whole "dog doesn't bark" theory from Outback.

I haven't rewatched Episode 2 since the week it aired, and i am only going from memory and a few notes i made at the time, but this episode has not ever sat well with me. Several voters did vote Natalie as UTR1... myself, for the few rating i managed to do at that time, i had her as a UTR1.

I don't have a clue who wins, but i feel very strongly that this season is "why X loses"... which really leaves us with 2 people as X - Russell & Shambo. Russell feels like he could be an end-gamer.... but his vis numbers just scare the daylights out of me, he feels like he has distraction written all over him.. Shambo... i think her big edit thus far has been leading up to her leadership role. Her tone is too erratic to win. No winner has ever popped up and down the tone scale like she has.

So that leaves me with looking at the others. No one has a good edit.... some are too negative, some are too flat and some i just don't know (like Kelly... don't know anything about her)John - interesting E1 scene, but has some tone issues and vis issues and i feel like while he has been thrown some INVs that were not warranted, this last episode was definite INV. Monica... She was a good possibility for a while, but i feel like she is lacking in end game connections, especially after the GaluGuys elected Shambo. Mick? while is ratings are good... he is just so darn flat and unmemorable. That and he is a Taurus.... no Taurus has ever won, the closest ever was the 2/3 position by Cassandra in Fiji (I know... it's a bit flaky, but so far it has held true). Natalie? don't know, but she does have a lot of connections to the jury that others don't have. Is she an end-gamer....sure feels like it. Does she win? Don't know. I feel like the others are not making it to the end ...

sorry, blathering on and i need to crash....

BTW. fixed the ratings... Sorry I was making plans for my second date at the time...
(insert snide comments &/or teasing remarks here everyone)

eta: definitely time for bed... can't spell