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And now, a Very Long Final Pre-Merge Episode Post:

Forget about ratings for a quick second, and look at the basic editors' goal for the beginning of the season.

I think after Micronesia Eliza told us that the editors have the first episode completed sometime around/after the merge of the actual show... or perhaps it was before the season was actually complete. Still, I think if a winner ends up coming out of left field (like Bob's, I'd guess), the editors still will make the effort to show them in some way by altering the episode. After all, it makes sense: after dramatic moments (blindsides, medivacs, etc) and big characters (Rupert, Stephenie, Russell), the editors' primary goal seems to tell us how ______ won the game. Their methods of accomplishing this goal, however, are quite varied, depending on the gameplay surrounding them:

Winner Types:
1. [Winner] dominates the social and/or strategic game (Richard, Tina, Brian, Tom, Yul, Earl, Todd, JT)
2. [Winner] finds him/herself at the right places at the right time, avoiding UTR-ness and overt complexity (Ethan, Sandra, Aras)
3. [Winner] slides to the end mostly UTR while still fitting recurring themes of the season (Vee, Bob)
4. How [Loser] loses, with [Winner]'s story being secondary (Amber, Danni)
(with some Winners having elements of both-- Chris and Parvati with 1 & 2, Jenna with 2 & 3)
(also noting it is useless to say "Winner Type 1 exists most often, so we should seek that first;" rather, we should keep our options open for all types as long as they fulfill basic Edgic precedence. Still, it seems that since all winners so far fit fairly well into at least one of the Types, people not fitting should be treated with caution.)

No matter the method, however, the editors are consistent in introducing the winner's story in the first episode (or two or three, depending on the method). Somehow, they'll get it done, and for each type there are consitent methods of introduction. Whether it's:
Method 1: Million dollar quotes (Richard, Brian, Todd), blatant heroistic scenes/positivity (Tom, Yul, Earl), good ol' fashioned characterization (Tina later, JT)
Method 2: Early tone & character-building scenes
Method 3: Instant memorability (Vee "Sarah's body," Bob "boy scout") and connection to theme (Vee Ep.3 w/ Sean, Bob Ep.1 as "good")
Method 4: A "there-ness," just enough to be consistently memorable under the shadow of a visibility hog

***

So, it's merge time in Samoa, and the editors are starting to finalize piecing together episode one. What do they know?
1) Russell H is a really evil guy, seemingly controlling all around him
2) Russell S's leadership will eventually cost his health
3) Mick was voted leader in a tribe that never seemed to need one; despite their apparent eventual bond, they can't pull out victories
4) Shambo doesn't fit in with her tribe and is surely going to flip the game somehow
5) Yasmin, Ben, and Jaison provided the most racial storyline since Cook Islands
6) Laura, Monica, and Kelly's distrust of and disdain for Shambo are looking to cost them in the coming days

And then they think... "hmm. Given all this, who's looking like they're going to win?"
1. Galu has numbers, but who among them could pull it off? Erik and John look strong, with possibly Laura in the mix.
2. Let's say Foa Foa uses Shambo and others to turn the game around like Aitu. Russell could pull it off if he pulls enough eye wool. Mick seems to be well-respected. People like Natalie, but do they like her game? Jaison isn't looking like he'll last that long, so we doubt he'll take it all.

Then some more stuff happens (aka: the rest of the season), and the editors cull that information to sharpen and polish the first episode they began working on a while back. Then, this is their finished product:

-The first confessional of the season comes from an attractive (audience eye candy?) non-entity, Brett, putting his thoughts forward about our major game changer Shambo. She responds with a confessional of her own.
- We then see our first boot (first victim?) Marisa throw some characterization on Russell H, who immediately appears OTTN to his audience in his own confessional. He's our second big character of the season.
- We follow up with a confessional from early boot and fan favorite Betsy, introducing a theme of believing others/trust.

Now we see the importance of these opening, non-titled confessionals. We get instant characterization of the two biggest characters of the season, with supporting info coming from whom I believe are Positive victims (yes, I joked about it a few pages back, but I fully expect Brett to pop out with an anti-Natalie OTTP(P?) in a few episodes). I say victims, because everyone booted so far seems to have been axed as a result of Russell's manipulative malevolence or in relation to Shambo's half-witted (but semi-positive) cluelessness.

What next? A little confessional from Monica ("It's like, Haaa! Kind of like a deer in the headlights. Taking on a leadership role in a game like Survivor is like a death wish."). Why her? No real reason, really; she's attractive, and her leadership comment segues nicely into Mick's confessional: "I do have leadership qualities. In the operating room, you have to make snap decisions. It takes more than a note from mom to get through med school and residency." Why these particular two? Why is one commentary, while one is much more revealing? I suppose you have to say that since Mick would be elected leader in a few seconds, it's natural that they'd show him. But why not Russell S instead? He does get more attention later in the episode, but I think the Mick insertion was completely intentional; what better time to introduce our winner than the second titled confessional of the season, commenting on a role which he will shortly take on himself?

We then see the votes, followed by a similar setup to Monica/Mick: first, Ben reveals to us his "country boy" character with an N twist, followed by commentary from Russell S: "I'm scared. This leadership thing can go south real quick. The highest nail gets pounded down in this game and, right now, I'm like shy-high." Lucky that RS said this in confessional; great CP foreshadowing of his eventually downfall through medivac.

Before the challenge, we get racial commentary from both Jaison and Liz, foreshadowing mainly Jaison's story. The challenge is run (including Jaison's first mini-racial-victory), and Marisa praises Mick for his wise choices. Also, John is shown slacking off, receiving negative commentary from his future alliance-mates Erik and Dave; John's negativity will continue in Galu's only tribal scene of the episode. In that scene, Shambo's distance from her tribe is emphasized further, and Russell's leadership is praised.

As for Foa Foa, Mick once again gets their first confessional, conveying his stance on the struggle of leadership and pointing out the target Ben's painting on his own back. Then, finally, Russell H lays it all out for us:
"I didn't come here to work, I came here to play. You've got to talk alliances as soon as you step on this island. So, my strategy is to be able to have a secret alliance with each one of these dumb girls. (Marisa, Ashley and Natalie shown weaving leaves for the shelter)…" He went to Natalie, Marisa (telling the latter that "The most important thing is honesty out here") and Ashley. (He told her that they "could look back at this moment right now and say (they) did it from day 1.") His confessional continued: "I got an alliance with the dumb short-haired blonde; I got an alliance with the dumber long-haired blonde and the dark-haired girl. I like to call it my dumbass girl alliance. I told them the exact same thing and I believe they are just gullible enough to believe it."
Clearly N(N) stuff, and debatably CP. The airtime hog begins his raid...

The rest of the episode is Russell-centric: from his Katrina lie, to burning socks, to emptying canteens, to threatening Marisa, he is the focus of all the story going on. He gives us this infamous confessional: "My tribe will believe everything that I tell them at any point because they're just stupid. Mick's the leader of the tribe but I'm the one in charge of the camp. You can call me the puppet master. They can be my little puppets. They'll run when I tell them to run, they'll walk when I tell them to walk. And, when I'm finished with them, I'll throw them in the trash."

At TC, nothing remarkable happens (unless you consider that of the four current remaining Foa Foans, Russell was the only one to get a TC question). Still, the end of the episode resonated with Russell's dominance over his tribe; this is a theme that continued through the pre-merge. Marisa distrusts him? She's out. Betsy distrusts him? She's out. Russell doesn't trust Ashley, but the Ben vote is edited as his final call. Ben's out. Then Ashley's out. Liz distrusts him, then a few episodes later, she's out too. In the intense rain sessions, the rest of the tribe is portrayed as crumbling, yet according to Russell, it "makes him stronger," vaulting him into the position of symbol of the underdog tribe.

Before I get carried away, let's stop right there and look back at what the editors knew at the time of the merge:

1) Russell H is a really evil guy, seemingly controlling all around him
2) Russell S's leadership will eventually cost his health
3) Mick was voted leader in a tribe that never seemed to need one; despite their apparent eventual bond, they can't pull out victories
4) Shambo doesn't fit in with her tribe and is surely going to flip the game somehow
5) Yasmin, Ben, and Jaison provided the most racial storyline since Cook Islands
6) Laura, Monica, and Kelly's distrust of and disdain for Shambo are looking to cost them in the coming days

1. The editors show us this in episode 1.
2. The editors foreshadow this with a dramatically ironic Russell S confessional.
3. Mick's early role as leader is emphasized by everyone except Russell H; leadership isn't mentioned as a cause for their IC loss.
4. The editors clearly show us Shambo's separation from the rest of her tribe.
5. Ben is set up already as an N character, and Jaison is shown to be mindful of stereotypes. The seed is planted.
6. These three Galu women are nearly completely ignored. Their storyline isn't significant to that of the winner, eliminating all of them.

The editors make sure to show us all of the important loose ends in episode one; so really, not a bad job, editors, even if you did go a bit overboard with Russell H.

Then, at the time of the original editing process, I said the editors could make these predictions about an eventual winner:

1. Galu has numbers, but who can pull it off? Erik and John look strong, with possibly Laura.
2. Let's say Foa Foa uses Shambo and others to turn the game around like Aitu. Russell could pull it off if he pulls enough eye wool. Mick seems to be well-respected. People like Natalie, but do they like her game? Jaison isn't looking like he'll last that long, so we doubt he'll take it all.

1. Erik is featured briefly as performing strong in the RC, John is presented as an OTTN quitter and annoyance, and Laura is ignored. If either of the latter two eventually won, the editors would have definitely altered their Ep1 rough draft. [I find John's Ep1 edit very interesting; there are clearly seeds planted there that should bloom sometime in the post-merge] Right now, Erik looks like a strong candidate for potential winner, but receives little emphasis. Still, I believe there is enough there to justify him as a legitimate winner choice after episode one given what we know now.
........except not. Editors don't introduce us to winners in Episode 1 and then allow them to totally slip into oblivion; Erik's subsequent INV-UTR1 should Edgically eliminate him from contention. If not that, the sudden visibility spike in Ep4 should be the final Edgic Guideline nail in his coffin.

2. From Foa Foa at the merge, three of them could win, considering game logic. So far, Russell has dominated the game, with his every wish being granted, and the editors set that ball rolling right in episode one. Did they go overboard? Yes, they probably did. But they also realized they had a big character on their hands who technically could have a shot at the endgame, providing him with enough Ep1 complexity as that of a winner. A more common choice of potential winner, considering RH will be a target in the post-merge, is Mick; his Ep1 edit, then, is practically perfect for a winner. MORP3 despite an OTT(CP?)NN5+ monster? Not too shabby.

And then there's Natalie. It's clear that people in the game like her personally, and she seems to be playing out a strategy that could take her all the way. But here's the thing: if she actually did end up winning, the editors still gave her NOTHING in episode 1. She was never ONCE mentioned by name, had ZERO confessionals, and ZERO tribal council questions. She was featured as a member of Russell's dumbass girl alliance, but with NO reflection on her part, is that really significant at all? No, it's not. That's the thing: while the editing is, to put it lightly, lopsided this season, the editors aren't dumb enough to completely deny us specific Episode 1 knowledge of our eventual winner. Natalie is completely, 100% eliminated.

***

Allow me now to quote myself from earlier in the post regarding the Four Typical Winning Stories and Early Edit Methods:

Winner Types:
1. [Winner] dominates the social and/or strategic game (Richard, Tina, Brian, Tom, Yul, Earl, Todd, JT)
2. [Winner] finds him/herself at the right places at the right time, avoiding UTR-ness and overt complexity (Ethan, Sandra, Aras)
3. [Winner] slides to the end mostly UTR while still fitting recurring themes of the season (Vee, Bob)
4. How [Loser] loses, with [Winner]'s story being secondary (Amber, Danni)
(with some Winners having elements of both-- Chris and Parvati with 1 & 2, Jenna with 2 & 3)
(also noting it is useless to say "Method 1 exists most often, so we should seek that first;" rather, we should keep our options open for all types as long as they fulfill basic Edgic precedence)

No matter the method, however, the editors are consistent in introducing the winner's story in the first episode (or two or three, depending on the method). Somehow, they'll get it done, and for each type there are consitent methods of introduction. Whether it's:
Method 1: Million dollar quotes (Richard, Brian, Todd), blatant heroistic scenes/positivity (Tom, Yul, Earl), good ol' fashioned characterization (Tina later, JT)
Method 2: Early tone & character-building scenes
Method 3: Instant memorability (Vee "Sarah's body," Bob "boy scout") and connection to theme (Vee Ep.3 w/ Sean, Bob Ep.1 as "good")
Method 4: An early "barely-there-ness," just enough to be consistently memorable under the shadow of a visibility hog

Let me run through all 12 people currently in the game, seeing which categories they fit, whether or not their first episode introduction is worthy of that of a winner, and basic edgic rules to determine their overall Winning Chances:
Galu
Brett: Winner type 4. Does not fit method. ELIMINATED
Dave: Winner type 2 or 4. Fits neither method. ELIMINATED
Erik: Winner type 1 or 2. Fits method 2. BUT an INV and sudden visibility spike. ELIMINATED
John: Winner type 2. Fits method 2. BUT three INVs. ELIMINATED
Kelly: Winner type 4. Does not fit method. ELIMINATED
Laura: Winner type 4. Does not fit method. ELIMINATED
Monica: Winner type 4. Does not fit method. ELIMINATED
Shambo: Does not fit a winner type. (plus, extremely up-and-down tone) ELIMINATED
Foa Foa
Jaison: Winner type 2 or 4. Fits method 2. BUT inconsistent tone, story ended in Ep3. ELIMINATED
Mick: Winner type 2. Fits method 2. BEST CHOICE FOR WINNER
Natalie: Winner type 3 or 4. Fits neither method. ELIMINATED
Russell: Winner type 1. Fits method 1. BUT a distraction edit, unprecedented extreme tone, unprecedented extreme visibility. STILL the fact that he matches a Winner Type and its Method could be very good. NOT YET ELIMINATED

So, that leaves us with:
WINNER CHOICES:
1. Mick
2. Russell H
And, if you want another: 3. Erik (I know I eliminated him just above. However, if I allow Russell to slide a little bit edgically, I can barely do the same for Erik. I've personally eliminated him, but according to this method, he's the ONLY other person I could see someone arguing as still having a shot. No Monica, no Natalie, no Jaison, not even Shambo. Those people are way out.)

/the words of a guy probably up far too late past his bedtime...

Danielle's INV was a close call.
She's a pretty girl with large fake boobs, and hated at Sucks, so the usual edgic bias came into play.
Edgic was 90% behind Aras, so many couldn't wait to eliminate one of the few competitors..

INV or UTR1, it came at the merge. Bad timing either way.