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I'm a long time follower, infrequent poster and an edgic novice, but here's my two cence:

I think that because the editing this season is so abnormal (Russel taking up most of the first several episodes, Galu almost nonexistant, the most invisible players we've ever seen), we should all be open to the possibility that the edgic will also be abnormal. Like a few other people, I think that Natalie might be our winner. Here's my evidence:

1. She's one of only a few people let that have had any visibility, including: Russel, Shambo, Mick, Jaison, Liz, Monica, and Erik (Laura, Kelly, Brett, John, Dave have been too invisible for multiple episodes). Natalie was in danger of joining the later group in the first two episodes, but since then she's been becoming more and more visible. I also think she's the only one left who is getting an edit that CBS thinks the American public would want.

2. Russel has been waaaaaaaaay too over the top, and far too negative. They wouldn't have edited him this way if they weren't setting him up to lose big time. Unlike other cocky winners (Todd, Parvati, Brian) he's not being portrayed as a confident sneaky assassin, but as a huge loud mouth tyrant, berating and then voting out some of our favorites (Marissa, Betsy). Russel is the sideshow of this season, something to distract us until the main event is ready.

3. Jaison, while having a few good moments (voting out Ben), hasn't said anything other than "This sucks I want to go home" for the last few episodes. Jenna Morasca had one moment of wanting to quit, and then came back stronger than ever, Jaison is just floating by until he gets voted out.

4. Mick, who deceptively seems like the winner, is just too apathetic. He hasn't really been making any moves, hasn't ever really discussed strategy, goes along with whatever Russel tells him to do, and is dull. Also, the public thinks he's dull. Go read the comment boards on Dalton Ross's blogs, everyone just keeps saying "Mick who?". He may be getting screen time, but he's essentially just lying there on the screen like a sack of potatoes. If he was the winner, there is a lot to do with him (more emphasis on his leadership, who is a friends with, what's his plan for down the road, other than let Galu pick him off, like he stated last episode). Mick is a red herring.

5. Shambo just seems too much like a Rupert to win. I think they're setting us up for a big downfall that we're supposed to mourn.

6. The rest of the players (Liz, Monica, Erik) have been visible, but either too negative, or visible but without really contributing anything that we've seen.

7. Natalie, who hasn't been given a lot of talking time, has never said anything that wasn't important to the plot of the show. She's also constantly getting sound bites, as others have pointed out, about what people's perceptions of her in the game are (Russel saying she's stupid, Mick saying that they will all get picked off), and how she plans on discrediting them. She's seen having personal relationships outside of strategy (Ashley, even Russel), which is important to being a winner, which most people this season are sorely lacking. And think about this, since Cook Islands we've had incredibly predictable winners that have been painfully obvious since episode one (except maybe Bob). Maybe this season they are trying to throw us off track by making is think that the winner is painfully obvious (Mick), when in reality he gets beaten by the girl who slowly sneaks into the season, episode by episode. Natalie is also a fairly mild mannered person in a season full of ridiculous, over the top personalities, so it makes sense that even if she was the winner, they are going to still play up Russel and Shambo (and before then, Ben and Betsy and Yasmin), because as much as I like Natalie, she can't provide the same amount of screen time as the others.

I wouldn't be too shocked if Mick did end up being the winner, because my argument is based on the fact that they are trying to produce an entertaining show, and this season that's debatable, but I think that no matter what edgic might dictate, Natalie seems like the best choice to me. Also, I don't know how we can say an under the radar player who isn't very visible at the beginning of the show is impossible, when we have Vee, Amber, Danni, and Bob as evidence. And don't forget, even Tina was invisible in episode one.