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Werwanderflugen wrote:

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Although he is complex, is he really THAT developed? Strategically we always know where he's at--sure--but a problem with a lot of non-winners who have winnerish edits (eg. Marcus) is we don't know who they are: of the 500,000 words RussH has spoken I think a couple were dedicated to saying he's an oil tank business owner. We don't really know who is he: we know his strategy. So as a character, we don't know who he is/he's not that developed; rather, he's quite monotone in constantly telling us that he's in control and whoever he wants will go next. His complexity is almost distracting, and with visibility that ridiculously high: he's a distraction (alongside his overwhelming tone, which just adds to him being a distraction).

Tom wasn't P every episode, and Tom wasn't a 4 or 5 every episode either. RussH is an extreme, and extremes don't win.

I think we know just as much about Russell as anyone this season... Mick included. I think the only person who overshadows Russell in the "character development" area is Shambo.

I understand that in the past extremes don't win, but I don't see that idea as fundamental to Edgic this season. Perhaps I'm being hypocritical by adhering so closely to the INV rule and being more open-minded with regards to high visibility, but he's already got endgame connections out the wazoo. Million-dollar quotes and the idea of endgame alliances stick out to me like sore thumbs, so perhaps that's the main reason why I'm giving him extra attention.

And yes, as OTH said, we're still in the premerge, with about 2/3 of the season left to be seen. The second third (including the merge), I'm guessing, will be more heavily focused on Shambo as Galu members start to be voted out due to her connections with Foa Foa. The main question is: how much control will we see Russell as having during this period? Will he ever be seen as vulnerable? And will Mick finally have his story take off before the final third of the season?

Warrior wrote:

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INTRO

Jeff: "Though they've not yet spoken, first impressions are all ready forming."

Brett: "This lady with her free flowing Mohawk is probably some super outdoors woman that will naturally step forth as our leader."

Shambo: "Dude, I'm a people magnet (cut) People gravitate to me my entire life. It's like, Oh my God this chick rocks. We love her."

Marisa: "There's a guy that looks tough as nails.

He looks like a pit bull. He's like…I wouldn't want to mess with him that's for sure."

Evil Russell: I plan on making it as miserable as possible. Making it hell for everybody (cut) to get what I want."

Betsy: "When I first started being a police officer I believed every single person I meet, but now I don't believe anybody anymore."

20 strangers

forced to live together while battling the elements

and each other.

They must learn to adapt

or they'll be voted out

In the end

only one will remain

to claim the million dollar prize.

"39 days, 20 people, One Survivor"


First confessional
"Like, kind of like a deer in headlights (cut) taking on a leadership role in game like Survivor is a death wish."

Second confessioanl

"I do have leadership qualities. Being in the operating room you have to make some snap decisions. To get through med school you have to have more than a note from Mom and residency."

Third confessional
"My nickname has been Shambo since 86. I was in the United States Marine Corp and Rambo had the same bandana I had so everybody was like Shanon, Shambo, Rambo, Shambo. So that's my game name. That's what I'm here to do is to play."

Forth Confessional
"I really wasn't really surprised that I wasn't written down as the leader. But I really don't see anybody else as a country boy. I've shot and killed and cleaned just about everything that your allowed to in Missouri and probably a few things your not. So I've done all this stuff before and I think that a lot of these people are kinda candy asses."

Fifth Confessional
"I'm scared; this leadership thing can go south real quick. The highest nail definitely get pounded down in this game and right now I'm like SKY HIGH."

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Episode One

Before The Intro

Erinn: "The tall spiky hair model boy (Tyson) …love him. He seems like a good guy to have around."

Tyson: "The younger brunette (Erinn), she comes off to me as being the bitch."

Stephan: "We have the strung out old lady (Sandy) and it is sort of encouraging to have her because you know your not going to be the first to go."

Sandy: "The real tall boy (Stephan) I think he's like a geek. I think I should be able to lead him around real easy."

Sierra: "I've been sick. I got some bad tonsils (cut) So I kinda gotta hide it (cut) so I don't get voted out."

Ben: "This blond…I have an unfortunate feeling she's gonnna crumble."

Jeff: "They come from different

walks of life.

16 Americans

forced to work together

to create a new society

while battling the elements

and each other.

They must learn to adapt

Or they'll be

voted out."

In the end only 1 will remain to claim the million dollar prize.

39 days…16 people…1 survivor

INTRO

Ben gets the opening scenes first confessional "Game On"

Spencer gets 2^nd.confessional. He is the youngest contestant…the trek to camp was hot and hard.

JT gets the 3^rd. confessional. He is a country boy that is accustomed to the weather. He can fish and provide but needs to "fit in" with the people.

Stephan gets the 4^th confessional He said he saw the country boy (JT) and now thinks that he is "screwed" He doesn't think that he will get along with JT.

Erinn gets the 5^th.confessional. "What the hell am I doing out here."

Jerry gets the 6^th. confessional. Just got back from Afghanistan…trying to keep low key…doesn't want to be in charge. Knows that leaders are targets.

Ben also gets the 7^th. confessional. He says that he is a renaissance man. He tells us who he is and what he does for a living.

Brendan gets the 8^th. confessional. After seeing Ben try and make an alliance with him he tells us that his talk with Ben has him "throwing up the red flag" He does not want Ben in the process of winning the game.

The 9^th. and final confessional of the opening scene goes to Sandy. Before she disembarks the helicopter she tells us that she is "Pissed".

Werwanderflugen wrote:

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Arrrgghhh I just lost a post!

In regards to line that I bolded [Me: "I understand that in the past extremes don't win, but I don't see that idea as fundamental to Edgic this season."]: the problem is that this is edgic and any picks that go outside crucial rules that have worked for nearly all the seasons (and RussH winning breaks every winner mold thus far) means that it isn't edgic. "This season is editted differently, so edgic guidelines shouldn't apply as severely" is a philosophy that makes me cringe a little bit because we don't know yet--if Mick wins (or even Shambo), then why bother discussing all these far-fetched winner possibilities if the winner (once again) fits most of the criteria? If someone other than edgically viable players wins then Edgic failed and Edgic needs a complete revamping, but to this day there hasn't been any major blows to the system so there is no need to make a pre-emptive strike against typical winners and even look at people who are eliminated based on edgic principles because they have yet to been severely broken as a whole. We aren't psychics, just because there is a different feel this season does not mean we can throw the guidelines out the door: we can do that after the season is over, but until that day, we cannot make RussH (based on principles) a contender. Maybe make another thread called "If Edgic fails" but until then--at least in my opinion--that talk should remain outside this thread. (This is just a philosophy of mine, nothing catty or condescending--I promise!)

I agree with you for pointing out that statement of mine; it was poorly worded on my part. I'm really not as wishy-washy of an edgicer as that made me out to be! :) I don't actually think that the editing has significantly changed this season; rather, it has mostly focused on two larger-than-life characters, giving the shaft to characters completely inconsequential to the current and long-range story (all of Galu).

I also agree with you on Mick: he is still my first choice for winner, and by far, he best fits the guidelines we have. So what else is there to discuss about him right now? "He's fitting the mold, ladies and gents, now let's just wait for that CP turn around the merge!" I bother discussing other possibilities with developed edits (RussH, Shambo, Jaison) because (a) I don't think the discussion should stagnate, and (b) I don't think RussH "severely breaks" the guidelines:

1) The winner may have ups and downs, but is typically not too UTR/INV or too OTT.
Definite Check. -See, I disagree. KQ said that this guideline means that the winner means that the winner averages out to MOR--Russell is on one end of the extreme (too CP/almost OTT, not UTR or cooloff...no DOWN)

2) The winner will typically have a fair amount of meaningful editing and typically won't be ignored in long stretches.
Definite Check.

3) Typically the winner is not overly Positive or Negative.
Doesn't fit, but couldn't some like Tom, Bob, or JT be considered overly positive? -True, but JT had two N-ish episodes, Bob was UTR-neutral a lot (and had P Sugar and Matty to compete with) and Tom had P Ian and Stephenie plus he had an N episode or two... RussH has been N every single episode right from the start, so he is extremely one-sidedly toned

4) The winner is very unlikely to receive an INV rating during the course of the season, and will likely receive at least a 2 visibility in Episode 1.
Definite check. -That is because, in comparison to everyone else, they are being too ignored. RussH not only had the highest but also had way over the 5 limit.. someone equally/even worse than getting a 1 (eg. Sandy was a huge 5 and lots of people, including JT, got very low visibility in the first ep)

5) Over the course of the game the winner's presence and visibility should end up closer to the average of all the players. (The winner typically gravitates to near the top in MOR differential, which calculates the closeness to average in presence, tone and ratings).
Doesn't fit right now (and probably won't), but there's still a lot of time left with regards to this consistency.

6) Typically the winner is surrounded by players who keep our focus to distract us from the winner. These players are often OTT and much of the complexity and strategy centers in this core group. This core group can be a combination of members of more than one complex group, rather than all being from one, original tribe.
I don't think you can deny that he is a member of this strategic core group, but he is definitely looking like the distraction right now.

7) The winner will have substantial comments/insight from many of the jury members that may resurface in front of the jury or mislead the audience on voting.
I think this isn't going to be any trouble for him whatsoever.

8) The ending is typically set up to be a somewhat of a 'surprise'. You either don't expect the winner or second place to be there. These two are often manipulated in the editing to make each look like they have a chance to win.
I don't know if we'd be surprised to see him in the end, but his winning would be a surprise to the regular viewer, no? -I'm no so sure, considering he says every 10 minutes "I'm controlling this game, it's easy, etc. and everything he says will happen actually does seem to happen which works in his favor..it would be boring to watch if it was this easy, and the edit for RussH is that it IS easy (very unwinnerlike)

9) If two people are a 'known final pair' then the likelihood of them actually being the final two is slim. It would need to be a situation that cannot be avoided (i.e. Amber/Rob)
I think this rule is pretty much irrelevant these days. -Yeah, the same logic behind Darrah's 'Jon lies but he tells the truth too'.. it's one or the other, whether it's unavoidable or not--we should toss this guideline out. I also think we need to revamp the MOR guidelines and include narration, etc. because when people look to it to include it, they aren't very well-written so most close-calls go against MOR when they shouldn't.

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So, I don't think that RussH "severely breaks" edgic guidelines. No, he doesn't fit the typical mold as well as Mick, but I don't think there are quite enough strikes against him to eliminate him. What qualifies as "enough" to eliminate someone anyway?