S-19 Edgic (editing and logic)

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augustus713		#1681	[-]
Posts: 151 (10/17/09 5:39 PM) Reply Quote More Recent Posts Message Connection Block Invite	AbbyGirl wrote: I don't know if I should read posts here from this point on. Seems there are many posts popping up lately picking players as their winner picks that have been eliminated by edgic. I would like to know who is reading spoilers, and if they are, what are they doing here in speculation/edgic making winner picks? Speculation is fine, spoiling in a thread that is NOT for spoilers is NOT fine. Thank you.... Where do you see that? I don't even see any posts that don't pick Mick at this point. He got 97% last week and probably even higher this week with Ashley gone.
Riliss		#1682	[-]
Posts: 5672 (10/17/09 6:09 PM) Ugly on the inside Reply Quote More Recent Posts Message Connection Block Invite	astroline wrote: Riliss wrote: How about we talk about the dozens of posts theorizing that Natalie gets 2nd or 3rd place? What the fuck is your problem? After Episode 4 and Natalie's edit popping up at just the right time to finally introduce her to the viewers as an endgame player, specifically stating her strategy throughout the game. It's easy to see that Russell underestimates her (he says that specifically, and she says she's aware of this) which makes it even easier to see that Natalie has a very valid chance at being the UTR F3 finalist. Russell thinks he can beat her, she knows she can beat him. Why would they play this up at all if both of them don't end up in the F3? Do you think we're all idiots who are supposed to be wrong 100% of the time? I do think Natalie is our 2nd place of the season cos of straight up editing alone, we don't need your stupid ass spoilers whatever they are. Say whatever you want. Astro, stop internalizing the things I'm saying. I know you have a habit of taking everything you can into yourself. But I'm honestly never talking to you about anything because nothing you says is taken even remotely seriously. It's like a dude yells at a soccer coach to straighten up his players and suddenly the little sister of one of the player's girlfriends comes up and gives you attitude. Get over yourself, you fucking moron. People in the spoilers threads noticed what was going on here almost instantly, there's some good time mocking going on there. Last Edited By: Riliss 10/17/09 6:12 PM. Edited 1 times.
craig		#1683	[-]
Posts: 16280 (10/17/09 6:43 PM) Registered User Reply Quote More Recent Posts Message Connection Block Invite	Everyone else? Not gonna win, and I don't give a crap for the "going to last late into the game" comments. They don't have much at all to do with edgic. Why don't we just say "Mick wins" and declare a moritoriium on discussion for the rest of the season. Nothing has changed since last week. There isn't much to say. Something that I'm starting to see over the last two/three seasons is people placing people they think are in the end on their contenders list even if they don't have edgically viable edits--a loser is a loser. That's a fair criticism of picking Natalie - but Shambo and Jaison suck as 3rd pick at least as much as Monica. Even Evil Russ as 2nd choice fits edgic guidelines horribly. We've seen Amanda S16 and Susie make 2nd place with no editing hints whatsoever in the first few episodes. At least Russ's alliance with the "Blonde girls" (edited almost collectively) was highlighted ep.1. Last Edited By: craig 10/17/09 6:58 PM. Edited 2 times.
menelaus		#1684	[-]
Posts: 460 (10/17/09 6:53 PM) Reply Quote More Recent Posts Message Connection Block Invite	The only major change in edgic since the first episode has been people noticing that Natalie is probably an important character, which was sort of thrown at us when she said, "I am aligning with Russell because I can beat him in a jury vote" right after Russell called her an idiot. The only Galu on the winner charts at all is Shambo, and she hasn't been that high because of her horrible tone fluctuations, and everyone has known that she was going to flip as soon as we saw how much more she liked Foa Foa. If Mick wins, this will have been the easiest season for edgic ever.
OnlyTheHunter		#1685	[-]
Posts: 2021 (10/17/09 7:06 PM) Edgician Reply Quote More Recent Posts Message Connection Block Invite	I'm still rewatching, but flf said This leads me to believe his downfall will be at the hands (supposedly) of one of his "dumb women". Natalie's confessional fits the bill. But, her lasting beyond that point isn't clear, storywise. Makes sense to me. And I can't deny Mick. But I'm not off Shambo. I have to say, having spent the last couple weeks not contributing, Shambo and Mick have been the two standing out for me. Natalie isn't winning, but the cause to beat Russell? Absolutely. But Shambo also has been "dumb" yet we have her rounded out much better. She fits that bill also. Obviously, the jury vote comment she made mirrors Natalie's. Can easily turn out that she's PG. But I have to say, I'm not discounting her at all. I have more reservations about Jaison. No winner has wanted to leave so bad since the editors decided no more Morasca's can win. We'll see. I will get to ratings and better thoughts tomorrow. Michael
BlakeB717		#1686	[-]
Posts: 1918 (10/17/09 7:14 PM) Registered user Reply Quote More Recent Posts Message Connection Block Invite	OnlyTheHunter wrote: I'm still rewatching, but flf said This leads me to believe his downfall will be at the hands (supposedly) of one of his "dumb women". Natalie's confessional fits the bill. But, her lasting beyond that point isn't clear, storywise. Makes sense to me. And I can't deny Mick. But I'm not off Shambo. I have to say, having spent the last couple weeks not contributing, Shambo and Mick have been the two standing out for me. Natalie isn't winning, but the cause to beat Russell? Absolutely. But Shambo also has been "dumb" yet we have her rounded out much better. She fits that bill also. Obviously, the jury vote comment she made mirrors Natalie's. Can easily turn out that she's PG. But I have to say, I'm not discounting her at all. I have more reservations about Jaison. No winner has wanted to leave so bad since the editors decided no more Morasca's can win. We'll see. I will get to ratings and better thoughts tomorrow. Michael X -Mick is our likely winner, but Shambo's edit has considerable manipulation and insight and shouldn't be written off just yet (in case Mick loses). Everyone else (in my opinion, of course) should be eliminated. -Natalie and Russell got a scene last episode devoted to the Finals and how each of them think they can beat the other with their strategy, except Natalie gets the leg-up by showing that she is way more aware than Russell gives her credit: she know she's being used, and she's prepared to use him back without him knowing. This episode they showed both Natalie and Russell carrying out their strategies: Russell taking out smart people playing the game because those are the types of people he believes will win this game, and Natalie is making relationships and appearing likeable and friendly--a strategy Russell is overlooking (again, you can catch more flies with honey than with vinegar). The fact remains, however, that neither have edgically viable edits and must still be eliminated. cl always said to look for end-gamers that face the jury, because that can help you narrow it down; then look at the edits and see which of those supposed finalists has the winning edit and there's your pick. The fact that both Natalie and Russell got a scene last week about how they can beat the other, and then both got scenes this week showing them living up to the strategy they intend to own in the Finals is definitely intriguing and on-going which makes it significant. Last Edited By: BlakeB717 10/17/09 7:20 PM. Edited 2 times.
craig		#1687	[-]
Posts: 16282 (10/17/09 7:30 PM) Registered User Reply Quote More Recent Posts Message Connection Block Invite	I have more reservations about Jaison. No winner has wanted to leave so bad since the editors decided no more Morasca's can win. Jaison's lack of heart for the game is specially damning, since it's his continuing story in episodes where he is a minor character. It's like they are setting him up to quit. Jenna's F5 mood was a one-time thing, after the camp burned, and either her or her buddy was leaving. And Shambo? Since when do winners stick out from their tribe that much premerge? Since when do winners alternative P and N tone like that? And game logic says that juries don't vote for Lill and Cassandra types who aren't liked to begin with and then betray their tribes.
fat little fingers		#1688	[-]
Posts: 6277 (10/17/09 7:30 PM) Registered User Reply Quote More Recent Posts Message Connection Block Invite	-Natalie and Russell got a scene last episode devoted to the Finals and how each of them think they can beat the other with their strategy, It could be seen that way, but for me its the pattern of following Russ' sneering dismissal and bragging with one of his Dumb Blondes telling us just the opposite. Even though it was Natalie's confessional about how she plans to play to win, it's still RusselH's story that she is adding to. And it's the part of his story that points to his big mistake. ....or Evil Russ is our first Big OTTN winner. Okay, I kid. The women's confessionals about not really trusting Russel are the key to his fall, not his nasty, evil ways. Nasty and evil are just fine in Outwit, Outlast, Outplay. The winner just has to be worthy. And being shown that Russel is wrong every time he tells us that he's playing the perfect game is telling us that he is unworthy.
chapera rocks		#1689	[-]
Posts: 11816 (10/17/09 8:35 PM) Registered User Reply Quote More Recent Posts Message Connection Block Invite	ASHLEY - MORM5 JAISON - MOR3 LIZ - MORP4 MICK - MOR3 NATALIE - MORP3 RUSSELL H. - CPN5 BRETT - UTR1 DAVE - MORM4 ERIK - UTR2 JOHN - INV1 KELLY - UTR1 LAURA - INV1 MONICA - UTRN2 RUSSELL S. - OTTN3 SHAMBO - OTTP4 Once again, putting my winner picks in spoiler tags, just because I am aware of spoilers. But once again, I will say that I am being impartial. Spoiler [+] WINNER LIST 1. MICK TRIMMING - Best edit so far, though it's very MOR. He's been MOR for 4/5 episodes now. Though in this season, that is a great edit since it's the Russell show. Usually we know where the winner stands within the tribe, and we've seen his alliance with Russell and Jaison that was highlighted once again last episode. 2. RUSSELL HANTZ - In some ways, I actually think his edit is better than Mick's. He started off very negative, but we know his story better than anyone. If he were the winner, I could see the editors throwing out traditional editing and pimping him out anyway. And he is a lot more CP, over a more OTTN Coach, which is better for his chances. But still, he's so high in visibility, which puts him below the only edit that is more traditional. If Mick gets a bad merge episode, or a couple of UTR's, I will put Russ above him. These are the only two really viable choices. However, given the crapiness of the season, I would be surprised be tremendously surprised if any of the following win: MONICA PADILLA, JAISON ROBINSON, SHAMBO WATERS, or ERIK CARDONA. The first three are the only 3 not to get an INV1, which is big this season. Erik has an INV1, but a strong edit otherwise. He'd be my top pick if it weren't for the Ep. 2 INV1.
BlakeB717		#1690	[-]
Posts: 1919 (10/17/09 9:59 PM) Registered user Reply Quote More Recent Posts Message Connection Block Invite	I've been reviewing past edgic threads and you've got to hand it to KQ for pinning so many winners in the editing. I think this point from KQ during All Stars is really interesting and keeps Shambo alive (barely): It seems that the winner is better off having ups and downs that average out to MOR rather than actually be MOR all along. I'm thinking back to past winners and the ones whos ratings would be the flatest (Tina/Ethan) tended to be more UTR and more positive, rather than MOR with spikes of N. Jenna and Vee were the closest to MOR and they tended to be all over the place with their ratings. Just something to think about going forward. If you're a UTR/unimportant winner, you'll get a P tone. This definitely eliminates Monica and the other young kids at Galu (if their INVs haven't already done so). If Natalie didn't get INVs the first two episodes (by my standards), then maybe she'd have a fighting shot. Too bad I love her! I thought this hurts Mick, because he is so MOR and isn't getting much variety at all.. but he has tons of time to eventually become complex, and with RussH on his tribe you could distinguish some of his MORs as UTRs, which wouldn't be so bad. Mick is forgettable and positive (like Ethan, just goes to Tribal Council more often and has an important leadership role), so this rule can still be applied to him. Shambo is fluctuating (probably too much) in tone, but she's gone from CP/OTT to UTR/MOR each episode it seems (unless she is sent to Foa Foa, where she has to get some visibility). If she was CP or OTT the entire time (like RussH) or UTR the entire time (like... many people) then their average is too much on the extremes and not enough on the MORs. I do know that this is from old-school edgic, but it's always something to think about; especially in seasons like this when only a few aren't actually blatantly eliminated and we have much time on our hands. What ever happened to KQ anyway?
BlakeB717		#1691	[-]
Posts: 1920 (10/17/09 10:05 PM) Registered user Reply Quote More Recent Posts Message Connection Block Invite	Also, for those that use the arguement "You cannot mix ratings and visibility: they are seperate things!" I can be snotty here and say "Well KQ said it so you're wrong!" I don't mean to be, but really he did... I'm not sure I agree with the use of CP1 and CP2, I think the MOR rating would have captured a mostly UTR rating with some CP.
ZephyrO		#1692	[-]
Posts: 19 (10/17/09 11:11 PM) Reply Quote More Recent Posts Message Connection Block Invite	BlakeB717 wrote: INVs this week: John (why all the E1 focus? dude has been non-existant since!), probably Laura "……don't always be so quick to start spinning the wheels.Everyone's in a hurry right now." He already told us how his story would go in the first episode. I think E1 focus will be explained later.
AbbyGirl		#1693	[-]
Posts: 63 (10/18/09 12:47 AM) Reply Quote More Recent Posts Message Connection Block Invite	I miss KQ. There are quite a few of the "older" posters missing, I hope they come back. As for who I am talking about as far as spoilers, I'd rather not say who I am suspcious of. I am not here to start a witch hunt or name names. I don't know for sure who is spoiled since I don't read spoilers. Ever since it was announced that there were spoilers I have noticed a change with some of the picks, and some are new posters just popping in. It doesn't make them guilty, it just makes me wonder. Thanks to all of you who do read spoilers and admit to it, that's the right thing to do. The post by Blake quoting KQ from All Stars is very enlightening. A winner can be UTR but will skew positive, Ethan is a perfect example of that. Someone like Shambo who is a more out there kind of character will have an up and down edit, that does not eliminate her from being a winner pick. UTR and negative do not go together when it comes to finding a winner. As for someone like Evil Russell, sure....if he hadn't been so evil and cartoonish the first episode. I say we go back and look at that first episode's first fifteen minutes, I think we will see most of the end gamers and the winner might be more clear in hindsight. (Warrior, where are you?) It's worth a try..... :)
Alffmix		#1694	[-]
Posts: 6737 (10/18/09 2:03 AM) Registered User Reply Quote More Recent Posts Message Connection Block Invite	BlakeB717 wrote: OnlyTheHunter wrote: I'm still rewatching, but flf said This leads me to believe his downfall will be at the hands (supposedly) of one of his "dumb women". Natalie's confessional fits the bill. But, her lasting beyond that point isn't clear, storywise. Makes sense to me. And I can't deny Mick. But I'm not off Shambo. I have to say, having spent the last couple weeks not contributing, Shambo and Mick have been the two standing out for me. Natalie isn't winning, but the cause to beat Russell? Absolutely. But Shambo also has been "dumb" yet we have her rounded out much better. She fits that bill also. Obviously, the jury vote comment she made mirrors Natalie's. Can easily turn out that she's PG. But I have to say, I'm not discounting her at all. I have more reservations about Jaison. No winner has wanted to leave so bad since the editors decided no more Morasca's can win. We'll see. I will get to ratings and better thoughts tomorrow. Michael X -Mick is our likely winner, but Shambo's edit has considerable manipulation and insight and shouldn't be written off just yet (in case Mick loses). Everyone else (in my opinion, of course) should be eliminated. -Natalie and Russell got a scene last episode devoted to the Finals and how each of them think they can beat the other with their strategy, except Natalie gets the leg-up by showing that she is way more aware than Russell gives her credit: she know she's being used, and she's prepared to use him back without him knowing. This episode they showed both Natalie and Russell carrying out their strategies: Russell taking out smart people playing the game because those are the types of people he believes will win this game, and Natalie is making relationships and appearing likeable and friendly--a strategy Russell is overlooking (again, you can catch more flies with honey than with vinegar). The fact remains, however, that neither have edgically viable edits and must still be eliminated. cl always said to look for end-gamers that face the jury, because that can help you narrow it down; then look at the edits and see which of those supposed finalists has the winning edit and there's your pick. The fact that both Natalie and Russell got a scene last week about how they can beat the other, and then both got scenes this week showing them living up to the strategy they intend to own in the Finals is definitely intriguing and on-going which makes it significant. Wow, great post, dude. I'm totally fascinated with this season's editing. It's so crappy but there are still details that can get picked up. You don't need to read spoilers...you just gotta read edgic. Then you'll know with even more precision how the season's gonna go. Although I gotta admit I thought Ashley would last longer.
NickF227		#1695	[-]
Posts: 12270 (10/18/09 6:03 AM) Reply Quote More Recent Posts Message Connection Block Invite	BlakeB717 wrote: Also, for those that use the arguement "You cannot mix ratings and visibility: they are seperate things!" I can be snotty here and say "Well KQ said it so you're wrong!" I don't mean to be, but really he did... I'm not sure I agree with the use of CP1 and CP2, I think the MOR rating would have captured a mostly UTR rating with some CP. I was actually looking at past charts, and saw that Sundra got a CP2 at one point. How did THAT happen?
Warrior		#1696	[-]
Posts: 2954 (10/18/09 6:25 AM) Registered User Reply Quote More Recent Posts Message Connection Block Invite	oops Last Edited By: Warrior 10/18/09 6:45 AM. Edited 1 times.
NickF227		#1697	[-]
Posts: 12274 (10/18/09 6:32 AM) Reply Quote More Recent Posts Message Connection Block Invite	Warrior wrote: NickF227 wrote: BlakeB717 wrote: Also, for those that use the arguement "You cannot mix ratings and visibility: they are seperate things!" I can be snotty here and say "Well KQ said it so you're wrong!" I don't mean to be, but really he did... I'm not sure I agree with the use of CP1 and CP2, I think the MOR rating would have captured a mostly UTR rating with some CP. I was actually looking at past charts, and saw that Sundra got a CP2 at one point. How did THAT happen? The visibility was rated on a scale of 1 to 3 in Pearl Islands. 2 was average as 3 is now. ... Sundra was in CI?
9RedWing19		#1698	[-]
Posts: 2655 (10/18/09 7:33 AM) Registered User Reply Quote More Recent Posts Message Connection Block Invite	BlakeB717 wrote: What ever happened to KQ anyway? IIRC KQ used to do all his Edgic contributions from work - then his employer placed restrictions on Internet usage at work. I also think he got burnt out trying to moderate some of the acrimonious discussions that went on during S10 and S11.
Warrior		#1699	[-]
Posts: 2955 (10/18/09 7:54 AM) Registered User Reply Quote More Recent Posts Message Connection Block Invite	EPISODE FIVE FOA FOA Ashley - MORN5 She couldn't drink blended sea slug guts or throw a coconut…what was she doing on Survivor? Visibility - Weak 5 Elizabeth - MORP4 She gave a good effort at the immunity challenge. If another Danni wins…it could be her… Visibility - Weak 4 Jaison - MOR4 We continue to see the dreary side of Jaison. Visibility - Medium 4 Mick - MOR3 His edit continues right down the middle. Visibility - A perfect 3 Natalie - MORP3 They gave her a nice scene showing her consoling Ashley. Visibility - A perfect 3 Russell - CPN5 He came off as a bit harsh in the scene with Elizabeth. Visibility - 5 GALU Brett - UTR1 He got a confessional! Visibility - 1 Dave - MORP4 He is the only one that can start a fire. Visibility - Weak 4 Eric - UTR2 They used him to show us how big the seas were. Visibility - Weak 2 John - INV1 Kelly - UTR1 She was there. Visibility - 1 Laura - INV She got in the way of the cameras a few times. Monica - UTR1 The editors justified her comment towards Shambo at the IC in her confessional. Why would Monica be glad to see her…Shambo tried to vote her out. Visibility -1 Russell S - OTTN3 The "CHEIF" can't start a fire. Visibility - Strong 3 Shannon - OTTP4 I think that we were supposed to feel for her. Visibility - Solid 4 Winning Edit Odds Mick - 80% Shannon - 18% Elizabeth - 2% Jaison - 1% Evil Russell - 1%
LKMOSCAR		#1700	[-]
Posts: 8018 (10/18/09 12:20 PM) Registered user Reply Quote More Recent Posts Message Connection Block Invite	Mick reminds me of a male version of Amanda. However, he may win just because the others suck too badly.

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S-19 Edgic (editing and logic)

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