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getting real wrote:

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augustus713 wrote:

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I know a lot of people have eliminated Evil Russell due to his high visibility. One thing I think should be noted is that in no other season has so many players received UTR1 and INVs, so the the high visibility for the players who are being shown is partly due to that.

High visibility is one thing; the problem is that he is not hidden by anyone or anything: there are no distractions bigger than himself out there. Correct me if I'm wrong, but the basic tenet of Edgic theory is that the winner will be concealed by others coming into the merge.

Observations (In new order)

1) The winner may have ups and downs, but is typically not too UTR/INV or too OTT. - Check. Russell has been CP to me in all 3 episodes.
2) The winner will typically have a fair amount of meaningful editing and typically won't be ignored in long stretches. - Check, no disputes can be made here.
3) Typically the winner is not overly Positive or Negative. - Russell doesn't pass this test, but he could be being edited in the vein of Richard, Brian or Todd.
4) The winner is very unlikely to receive an INV rating during the course of the season, and will likely receive at least a 2 visibility in Episode 1. - Check.
5) Over the course of the game the winner's presence and visibility should end up closer to the average of all the players. (The winner typically gravitates to near the top in MOR differential, which calculates the closeness to average in presence, tone and ratings). - As I said previously, I'm throwing this one out the window, because almost everyone on Foa have high visibility and almost everyone on Galu has low visibility.
6) Typically the winner is surrounded by players who keep our focus to distract us from the winner. These players are often OTT and much of the complexity and strategy centers in this core group. This core group can be a combination of members of more than one complex group, rather than all being from one, original tribe. - Check. See above about Ben, Yasmin and Jaison.
7) The winner will have substantial comments/insight from many of the jury members that may resurface in front of the jury or mislead the audience on voting. - Check.
8) The ending is typically set up to be a somewhat of a 'surprise'. You either don't expect the winner or second place to be there. These two are often manipulated in the editing to make each look like they have a chance to win. - Check. Do any casual viewers really expect Russell to make it to the end? I doubt it.
9) If two people are a 'known final pair' then the likelihood of them actually being the final two is slim. It would need to be a situation that cannot be avoided (i.e. Amber/Rob) - Not applicable at this point.

Complex tribe:

1) Complex tribe has nothing to do with strategy -the average person doesn't care. It has to do with dangling, loose ends -anxious for us to revisit.
2) Complex tribe gets the most focus pre-merge.
3) In theory, the reason the tribe seems complex, is because the focus may be surrounding the winner or final core players.- Check, check, check.