With the one week break, now is the time to really push out those story arcs
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S18-Recrap- Story Arcs
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 Trixiego |
S18-Recrap- Story Arcs |
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Posts: 16368 (03/13/09 4:44 AM) Kiss me, I'm Adminish |
Last Edited By: Trixiego 03/14/09 6:03 PM.
Edited 1 time.
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rower |
Episode 6 - Story Arcs | ||
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Posts: 1920 (03/13/09 2:15 PM) Registered User |
Well, I definitely see Stephen's arc on an upswing. We know from his comments about the HII that he has placed his claim on that which he is allegedly
holding for Taj.... and she apparently doesn't know it. That being said, I don't think there is any incentive for Stephen to abandon Taj at this
point. Knowing that he and Taj are in the minority of their tribe and knowing that Joe may be targeting Taj, I think we will soon see Stephen come out to
play.... i.e. we are going to see him take the lead in plotting strategy that may include bringing in JT.
Over on Timbera, Coach's star seems to be waning. Other than predicting the weather, once again, he was virtually absent from the IC leaving Brenden and Tyson to secure the win. Brenden is emerging as a leader in strategy as well as challenges. Even though Tyson and Coach are nervous and talk about wanting to vote out Brenden next, I don't see them as being able to blind-side Brenden. Erinn remains an enigma. She is shown enough so that you know she is there but her story is incomplete to put it mildly. I suspect we will see her story arc up soon. |
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Jedijake |
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Posts: 5528 (03/13/09 4:02 PM) MESS member |
They're starting to push Coach into the background a tad bit, building up the tension around the EA. They'll bring Coach back to the forefront around
the time he leaves.
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mahdoo |
Story Arcs - Episode Six | ||
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Posts: 117 (03/13/09 4:39 PM) |
It has just occurred to me that the upcoming recap will give us the opportunity to see all of the players this season in relation to this season's theme
"First Impressions." With awareness that I have been enlightened and influenced by many good posts from others....accept my appreciation,
acknowledgement and awe.
We've first seen Sandy, struggling to change the first impression she made on her tribe as a "redundant old woman." Though she made it further than the first impression her tribe had of her, she was unable to successfully find a niche, and her story arc ended short of her goal. After she was booted, (in the insider?) she relayed that she'd said all her life that "you can't change a first impression." I think her story was that to some extent, she did. Her survivor experience had led her to "vow that she'd never say you can't change a first impression again." Unfortunately for me, there are other survivors who's story arcs were so short that I can only say that the tribe's first impressions were their demise. Taj: Taj interestingly shares early-on in the game that she is the wife of a well-known sports celebrity. Was this admission a miss-step, or a smart move as it ended up impressing the guys that she was "cool by association." She may also have wanted to avoid the negative impression that she was untrustworthy for keeping that a secret should it get out "who" she was. Regardless, as her major story unfolded, she has become a powerful player in her own right, in a unique alliance. She included Stephen in the cross-tribal four-way alliance on her first impression that Stephen, over all the others that she might also have chosen, was the one she could trust to have her back. I think that in the episode after the recap, depending again on who marches to tribal council, Taj's story arc will be over with "sometimes first impressions are wrong." (thanks, edgic, for that one) My thoughts turn next to JT. As we see the season begin, he shares that he believes he will be precieved as the "country boy and therefore not so smart." He relays he plans to let others think that if they will, and says he will follow someone else's lead. Immediately, we're faced with the irony of his expressed intentions and the reality of his actions (and the fact that he must just be a natural born leader and completely in his own element). Several incidents this season have made me think about how one's own intentions and one's actions in first impression situations are sometimes out of kilter. (Carolina, honey?) JT has a big story. The city-boy is "smitten" with JT's compentency. He gains respect, and JT's own belief about how he'll be perceived is shown to be in error. I am biting my tongue to avoid "John Wayne and silent type" references. JT reminds me of the stoic, "take care of business" autocratic and fair leader. If he has an authortarian side, he's done well so far to keep it in check. His edit is almost one-dimentional; he's good in all variety of strengh and agility challenges. What a target on his back in episodes to come. For all his strengths, I think his story arc will be inextricably tied to that of Taj's. Whichever of those two goes first, the other will follow not too long thereafter. And that thought leads me to city-mouse Stephen. Taj thinks he is sitting at her feet, but was her first impression of his trustworthiness wrong? Oh poo, I am out of gas. Maybe I should just post "yada yada yada" and "so forth and so on". Tie it to the theme. Sprin it into an arc .....zzzzzzzzzzzzz I do ramble on.
Last Edited By: mahdoo
03/13/09 4:56 PM.
Edited 1 times.
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rower |
Episode 6 Story Arcs | ||
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Posts: 1921 (03/13/09 5:57 PM) Registered User |
mahdo - Good insight. I agree somewhat and disagree in other areas.
What I sense about JT is an inate fairness. How do I explain? Well he seems to be someone who would state that his word is a bond and a handshake is a deal. I sense that he forms opinions and is very loyal... Obviously there is more depth here and we have been shown. The most interesting comment to me last night was when Taj, JT, Stephen and Joe were all in the water post-IC, JT did not hesitate a fraction of a second to say that he trusted Taj the most of anyone in the tribe. I know that Taj picked up on that, as did Stephen. Was this a first impression or is there something more to the JT/Taj connection than we have been shown. If things get ugly for Taj at Timbera then I see her approaching JT along with Stephen to save herself... without need to use the HII. The combination of JT's trust in Taj as well as his rivalry with Joe for Sydney's affection will seal the deal for Joe to be voted out. After Stephen's comments about having the HII and posession is 9/10s of the law sort of thing, you turn to JPs blog and he comments on the same issues. Many are reading into this that is spells the demise of Taj. Maybe it does but I don't think if will happen before the merge. If Stephan is as savy as JP thinks he is then he will not make the mistake of refusing to give Taj the idol back if she asks for it before TC. I thinkhe would work much harder to keep the idol out of play and to do that he has to work to keep Taj off the block. HOWEVER ( I just thought of this) he also could side with Sydney/Joe and JT to vote out Taj in a blindside which could really give him a leg up at the merge. Going into the merge he could tell Brenden that Taj was voted out while holding the HII in a blindside. Stephen would then have a defacto alliance still with Brenden and Sierra while having a HII that nobody would have reason to believe he had. That would be brilliant. He could then have a secrete alliance with Brenden, Sierra as well as an alliance with his own tribe. Now (as much as I hate the thought of losing Taj) that would be a gem. |
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mahdoo |
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Posts: 118 (03/13/09 6:17 PM) |
Good points, rower, and I am in agreement with your first four lines completely. What I heard JT say to Taj was that he "trusted her more than some others." (not "more than anybody..ie stephen) Stephen was taking this all in, smack in the middle. Taj confronted Joe about trust, and angered him enough to lead in to Joe's confessional. You are right that Joe may well go before Taj. I guess my train of thought was on the Jalapao power-triangle that may well be addressed as soon as the merge occurs. |
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Jedijake |
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Posts: 5529 (03/13/09 7:15 PM) MESS member |
Funny little season we have going. It seems to be the Sierra show in a subtle way.
Having been outcast from her tribe may well end up being the single greatest thing to happen to her for several reasons. Instead of coming back from that upset, it may be the catapult that springs her to victory. For one, as the only person working on shelter, she was able to stand out from the rest immediately in terms of resourcefulness and work ethic. If she had been with the group, she would have been just another face in the crowd, not really shining. She probably would not have much of an opportunity at all to take part in building shelter with the egos around her. She would have been washed out and pegged as more useless by the macho guys. Instead, it was SHE who started the shelter. Second, being outcast gave her immediate insight into who could be on her side. The decision as to who to "trust" became immediate. First impressions were given and she saw who didn't have a negative one of her. Instead of cowing down from it, she used that very information to her advantage very quickly. From there, she was in turn thrust into the EA. How ironic is that? Whether her story is how she came back from being outcast to win OR that being outcast caused her win, she definitely has the winner story going. But her seemingly cocky mindset is going to have to take a beating a bit before she can scurry back to the top. |
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Schadenfreude |
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Posts: 787 (03/13/09 9:57 PM) MESS member |
TIMBIRA:
COACH: Again, the edit shows him as a clueless, overbearing buffoon. There was much less camera time for him, which was nice!
ERINN: I think the significance to her edit is that she's the narrator of the main theme of this season: Why Coach Sucks. She's not perhaps the best competitor or the most adored person on her tribe, but, dammit, she makes snarky comments about Coach being a jackass that match exactly what we're yelling at our TV sets. Truthfully, she needs to be added as an alternate to the Brendan/Sierra/Taj/Steve quartet to have any shot at the endgame, which she would probably not be able to win.
TYSON: I still think he might be being set up as a dark horse winner… Coach can't/won't win, but if anyone out of that conglomeration should sneak through, it's going to be Tyson.
DEBBIE: Kim Johnson to Coach's Lex: she may be of minimal use in the challenges and the jury won't respect her, but she's mostly a nice person with a good work ethic and she's loyal to the boys in power. Note how she, AGAIN, was the weak link that cost them a challenge.
BRENDAN: I don't understand his edit. He's going to exile, he's strong, but we don't actually hear all that much about what HE is thinking. Quiet leader that knows how to stay out of trouble or is he being hidden? Tyson is catching on to him, though I don't think it's likely they'd go to TC again before the merge, or if they did, I doubt he'd go before Erinn.
SIERRA: I like her edit, although it's getting a little cocky. She comes across as the one person on that tribe you actually want to cheer for… positive, and part of that core alliance. Probably the safest person on Timbira right now, come to think of it. Bright spot on a mostly unsympathetic tribe.
JALAPAO:
TAJ: Look, we all know that she's essentially the Chinatown knockoff version of Cirie here, but that doesn't make her any less fun to watch. The one major difference between these two women, though: Cirie had one heck of a social game. Whereas Taj, I like her, I think she's a schemer, but… I sincerely doubt she'd ever win against a jury. She's not building those bonds with the potential jurors, even though she's playing very well. And I do think she needs to watch out to make sure she makes it through to the merge before she starts crowing.
STEPHEN: Again, I feel he's in the best position on the tribe… he has the idol, he has the connection to Taj and the secret alliance, but at the same time, should that fall apart, he has JT, or at least he can use his good buddy JT as a human shield to buy himself some time. How much resentment would he receive for going against what remains of his tribe should he face a jury? Taj I suspect would be resented more.
JOE: This seems to be the most character development he's gotten, and there's not much there beyond him being bland, thinking Sydney's hot, and thinking Taj is kind of a bitch. Not going to be a real factor in the endgame, I suspect. I'm bored already. Let's move on.
JT: He seems to be making the decisions over on Jalapao, in terms of who to keep… he swayed the vote to Sandy over Sydney, and the vote to Spencer over Taj. I also think he's clearly the link between Joe/Sydney and Taj/Steve, and equally clearly, he's going to be first post-merge target for Coach and his little Coachlings. That being said, SHOULD his group prevail post-merge, or should he team up with Taj, Steve et al, he would be unbeatable in a final vote. Hardworking, well-liked, tough in the physical challenges…. Nobody in their right mind, though, would want him around in the endgame.
SYDNEY: Seems nice enough, but I don't sense kindred between her and the Taj/Steve camp. I think the Insider videos were a better explanation of her longevity, namely that she's great at starting fires and works extremely hard around camp. I imagine if she were relevant to the endgame, we'd see that on the actual broadcast.
SPENCER: Ahh, poor kid. I
think he was one of those people that get voted off because there's really no good reason to vote anyone off, no obvious cannon fodder left, and he was the
outsider who didn't do well in the challenge. C'est la vie. He's
dating Todd now, and can Mariano his way into the money. Maybe they can do Amazing Race together and we'll become
sick of the both of them.
Thoughts on overall chances of winning from story arc:
Could make final 2, probably would not win:
Not likely to last that long: Joe, Sydney (both too underdeveloped), Erinn (doesn't have the social capital, it would seem, to last that long.). |
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Orangeena |
Taj out before Merge? | ||
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Posts: 1475 (03/13/09 10:57 PM) Registered User |
Rower's above ^ gem of a description was just what was running through my Orange head, too.
It bears repeating here - "HOWEVER ( I just thought of this) he also could side with Sydney/Joe and JT to vote out Taj in a blindside which could really give him a leg up at the merge. Going into the merge he could tell Brenden that Taj was voted out while holding the HII in a blindside. Stephen would then have a defacto alliance still with Brenden and Sierra while having a HII that nobody would have reason to believe he had. That would be brilliant. He could then have a secrete alliance with Brenden, Sierra as well as an alliance with his own tribe. Now (as much as I hate the thought of losing Taj) that would be a gem." Rower, I think that is exactly right. Stephen wants to keep his hands on the HII. He HAS to get rid of Taj before the merge. He's a uber-fan and knows the pre-jurors get sent away and don't get to interact with the jury, so he has to make this move(if indeed he's going to do this) BEFORE the merge and the assembly of the jurors. If Taj goes next in ANOTHER blindside, we've seen all the reasons why she would go this past episode. Her story is sort of done. And that outburst sort of really did cost her as JT and Joe both said, I think. Stephen then looks shocked as all hell when this happens to her. And he need never utter a word or even vote for her. Sydney, JT and Joe form a majority in a five person tribe. And he gets to keep the HII AND his alliance with Brendan and Sierra, and he brings JT in to replace Taj, and Sierra seems to have struck up an alliance with Debbie as we saw on the Insider this week. TDT is also hinting at a switch occuring(?!?) this late in the process. And of course, it could, and that could doom Taj. Didn't they just do a late switch on Gabon? *yawn* Also, FWIW, TDT has always had Taj way down on the bottom of his chart...NOT THAT THAT MEANS ANYTHING...but... |
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Coachocd |
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Posts: 7429 (03/13/09 11:20 PM) MESS member |
Great stuff, Schaudenfreude. You are the king of the Story Arc thread, IMO.
I also agree that the most likely winners are Steve and Sierra. I can easily see Brendan and/or Taj ending up in 3rd/4th place as the best player overall but doesn't make the finals. "Record number of blindsides" has a caviat. A blindside to the bootee is not the same thing as an audience surprise. Dark horse winner: Tyson. He's got more on the ball than he lets on. His Greg Buis strategy is working well. He's not seen as a threat because he's zany, but he knows what's going on in the game. |
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hagiz1 |
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Posts: 342 (03/14/09 4:45 AM) |
for some reason I'm getting Marcus vibe from JT. I mean he got a boy who's smitten to him (Stephen), A girl who flirts with him (Sydney) and he's
calling the shots in Jalapao.
It's funny that Jeff hated Marcus but adored JT. I think anybody would be crazy to keep JT around in the merge because he'd win it in a heartbeat |
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 Kirblar |
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Posts: 7715 (03/14/09 10:16 AM) Registered user |
I think Tyson is blindsided at F9.
Sydney out next, Joe as the merge boot, then the Exile alliance pulls in JT to flip the game. |
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birdlady |
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Posts: 2336 (03/14/09 11:21 AM) Registered user |
Going into the merge he could tell Brenden that Taj was voted out while holding the HII in a blindside. Stephen would then have a defacto alliance still with Brenden and Sierra while having a HII that nobody would have reason to believe he had. That would be brilliant. He could then have a secrete alliance with Brenden, Sierra as well as an alliance with his own tribe. Now (as much as I hate the thought of losing Taj) that would be a gem.This would be an awful lot of fun (much as I'd miss Taj). Unfortunately, I've sorta gotten the impression that searching people's stuff for the idol is pretty routine, even if we don't always see it. If there's already suspicion about who's going to exile, surely someone would think to check Stephen's things. I've decided I don't think Erinn will go much further. If her role was to define Ben for us, that's been done, we can fill in the rest of it ourselves. This far in the season, if she was important, the editors could have come up with something to tell us about her. Should be interesting after the merge, whenever it is, with three alliances none of whom have a majority. JT, Tyson, and Brendan have individual immunity potential, but Debbie is very strong for her size, and Sierra is probably good at standing in one place, so they could sure sneak in for one, too. |
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Jedijake |
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Posts: 5533 (03/14/09 12:15 PM) MESS member |
I can't see Taj going anywhere before the merge. It isn't going to be one of the invisibles (Joe, Sydney) or one of her own alliance members that
begins to break down the EA. It's just not going to happen-not that way if at all.
The only ones who are going to be throwing salt onto the skin of the EA are Coach and Tyson. Successful or not, it's going to revolve around them, not people like Joe or Sydney. |
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mahdoo |
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Posts: 120 (03/14/09 1:09 PM) |
We have two wild cards that could figure into a player's story arc ..... critter bites or other unexpected injury, and a potential swap. I hope the
exile-swap opportunity supplants an actual mix-em up.
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mahdoo |
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Posts: 121 (03/14/09 1:15 PM) |
birdlady wrote:I'm maintaining a completely straight face: I thought Stephen was keeping the HII in his pocket all the time, But yeah. That would be an awful lot of fun to see. |
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Joss Wolfe |
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Posts: 1182 (03/15/09 12:24 AM) Registered User |
"We have two wild cards that could figure into a player's story arc ..... critter bites or other unexpected injury, and a potential swap. I hope the
exile-swap opportunity supplants an actual mix-em up. "
Well given that there is only one more boot before the merge I doubt it |
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crocophile |
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Posts: 10500 (03/15/09 4:17 AM) MESS Moderator |
"Also, FWIW, TDT has always had Taj way down on the bottom of his chart...NOT THAT THAT MEANS ANYTHING".
Actually I believe all it means "Taj" comes before "Tyson" and after "Sydney" alphabetically. They should merge after ep 6, one premerge boot and one merge boot then come the jurists. If Jalapoa wins the next one Taj could be in danger...although I'd bet on Sydney followed by Joe as the merge boot. .... OTOH if Timbira wins ep 6 IC we head into the merge with a tie. |
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Jedijake |
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Posts: 5542 (03/15/09 7:44 AM) MESS member |
Only if it's a final 2. If it's a final 3, the next boot or the boot after begins the jury.
And yeah, it would suck if one of the EA's gets taken out of the game due to medical reasons. I'm getting a bad feeling from Sierra's overconfidence. |
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mahdoo |
Recap - Story Arcs | ||
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Posts: 126 (03/15/09 3:19 PM) |
If anyone is in withdrawals <g> there is really some great stuff in the out-takes (insider) posted at CBS.com. Lots of stuff there if you drill in to
the episode 5 clips that become food for thought concerning player's story arcs. For example, Ben discloses he's having breathing difficulties in a
believable way. Makes me wonder if that doesn't force him out, though he vows that won't make him quit.
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JediJeffro |
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Posts: 500 (03/15/09 11:28 PM) Registered user |
So, with 11 people left, I could make a pretty compelling case for about half of them winning. All things considered, that's not a bad job on the part of
the editors, and it makes for an exciting end game. Even the spoilers have been somewhat exciting, since lord knows how believable any of them are. Anyway,
with that said...
Jalapao Joe: Still seems to be as I pegged him a month ago - bland, physically competent, lacking in the strategy department. He probably ends up somewhere in the vicinity of the first jury spot. He did have the comment about his knee injury that didn't really have an effect on the rest of the episode, so if Jalapao ends up back at TC next time, maybe he ends up booted since he won't be able to hang in the game anyway, Jeff in Palau style. That, or the knee thing was meant to go with JT's tooth as a contrast to Spencer. Joe won't win. JT: I think this was actually a bad week for JT. He's in control of Jalapao, yes, but he got a couple really unflattering moments. We had the Bobby Jon freakout at the end of the immunity challenge, but more importantly, we had Spencer's comments about how he'd be afraid to come out to someone like JT. Since Spencer didn't end up coming out at all, those comments didn't serve any purpose except to cast aspersions on JT. If he was going to win, I don't think we'd have seen them. He is clearly in a position to be very competitive in individual ICs, and if the Exiles do end up with control, I would expect them to target the Timbira power before the Jalapao power. JT's connection to Stephen could be his saving grace; would Stephen really rather boot JT than Brendan and look like a snake? I doubt it. Could very well end up in the Terry spot - best physical competitor, liked by most people, not someone anyone wants to face in front of a jury. Stephen: A possibility to win. His comments about the Exiles contrast sharply with the other three, and his "aggressive" possession of the HII indicate an arc on the upswing. If the Exiles end up in control, he's obviously in good shape. If Jalapao is in control, he's in good shape. If Timbira is in control, he has an HII and would probably be targeted before only Sydney, and perhaps would even be the last target from Jalapao. I think Stephen is definitely in the top five. Sydney: It's somewhat telling that she was in no danger tonight. I suppose her performance wasn't as bad as Spencer's and she's not as loud as Taj, but what is she actually doing around camp? Rubbing shoulders, I suppose. She's probably out close to Joe. She won't win either, but I think she makes the merge. She wouldn't make sense as a target at a Jalapao pre-merge TC, assuming there could only be one of those left. Taj: Another possible winner, albeit less likely than Stephen. Her edit has been very, very interesting. I haven't watched Exile Island since it originally aired, but as I remember it, Cirie slipped into the background after a big first couple of episodes. Taj has done no such thing and has been a prominent figure all season. I'm not sure what that means for her longevity. My guess is that all of the Exiles at least make the merge, but I think Taj is the least likely of the four to win, even though she has a shot. Maybe future conflict with Stephen over the HII? I'd place Taj squarely in the middle of the jury, right around 7th place. Timbira Ben: For the first time this season, we didn't get at least 10 minutes of screen time devoted to his being an idiot. Instead, we only got two or three. It's telling to me that we heard the aside from him about Sandy's boot being just a matter of time. We also got the sequence about his being completely wrong about the storm. He surely doesn't win, but I think he ends up near the end of the jury. Evacuated? Maybe. More likely his numbers just run out and we're treated to a week of blowhardedness about how big a threat he was. Brendan: I think we're supposed to like Brendan a lot, but his ducks are not as neatly in a row as he thinks they are. Stephen doesn't fully trust him, he couldn't get to Sierra before she talked to Taj, Tyson/Debbie/Ben are all suspicious, and so on. I would agree that the scenes on Exile with Stephen are probably important and I think Stephen ends up selling out Brendan and Taj, at least. Perhaps as retribution for Timbira targeting JT and Brendan not trying to stop it. Could win, but probably not likely. He'll end up going right before or after Taj. Debbie: Yawn. Older woman who has no challenge abilities who rides to the end of the game and doesn't win. I've seen this story before and more than once. Spoilers say she ends up in fourth, and that wouldn't surprise me. Call it the Principal's Spot. She's the female Butch. Erinn: Erinn confuses me. I'll start by saying I'm biased - for whatever reason, I like Erinn. Some of it is shallow, to be sure. Skinny, brunette, glasses...I'm smitten. And she realizes how much Coach sucks, which is also fun to watch. If Timbira goes to the next TC, I'm sure she'd be the boot, but I think Jalapao is probably there next. I'm not sure how Erinn fits in to the merge game. She obviously doesn't want to be with Coach, but is she strategically and socially engaged enough to jump to the Exiles/Jalapao? I suspect she gets strung along and ends up somewhere between eighth and sixth, like Amber in Australia. Sierra: Feeling more like the winner every week. Like Stephen, she'll probably end up in the majority no matter how the game shakes out, unless Jalapao somehow ends up dominating. I think Timbira and the Exiles have the longevity edits, though, and I don't know why Sierra wouldn't go deep. She's probably every bit as snarky as Erinn, but we don't hear it. We do see her making positive social connections with almost everyone, though. And for some odd reason, I can see her and Stephen bonding. Tyson: Is he Greg Buis? I think he is. When he made his comment about Brendan, it was one sentence and then he turned away immediately. Tyson wants to stir up shit for sake of Tyson's entertainment, pure and simple. Could he win? Sure, I guess so. But we don't know a lot about his strategy, outside of being "Assistant Coach." If the Exiles successfully blindside anyone, it will be Tyson. He's a physical threat, close to Coach, unlikely to be very in tune with the subtleties in the tribe, and so on. Probably early jury. So, my guesses for placing as of now... 11. Joe 10. Sydney 9. Tyson 8. Taj 7. Brendan 6. Erinn 5. Coach 4. Debbie 3. JT Final Two: Stephen and Sierra |
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