Theme-based approach wouldn't solve anything this season. It would have just led to a Matty winner pick. I knew a "good" player would win this season, but Matty had the best edit of those players. I always pay attention to themes, sometimes it can narrow down the list of players in contention. But rarely is a theme so specific that you can use it to pinpoint a winner.
No amount of guidelines you add is going to encompass edits like Bob. He admitted that his strategy was NOT to strategize (interestingly Danni said something very similar - she intentionally did most of her strategizing off-camera).
My practice is to look for manipulation in editing and to interpret them using a combination of traditional Edgic fundamentals and story and theme-basis analysis. OK, this was my experience this season:
1. During the first episode, because of the manipulation in the first challenge, I correctly identified that teamwork was going to be a significant theme of the season and that the winner was going to be a good guy with a huge emphasis on helping others. I noted that, because of that, Marcus and GC might be in trouble and that the people shown most to be helping others were Matty, Bob and Dan.
Still during the first episode, immediately after the challenge, we are shown the Kota camp, where Bob is shown receiving the adulation of his tribemates for the work he is doing. There are two unusual aspects to what we are shown: A. Although Bob is the one praised for his work, the footage shows him involving others in helping him and contributing to the tasks B: there is a little slow motion vignette of Bob being hoisted on the men's shoulders in triumph at completing the task.
The teamwork aspect is reinforced time and time again, with Probst going out of his way to emphasize it. As the story unfolds, I becomer certain the winner will be a good guy with a devotion to teamwork. I think Matty fits the mould best. I discount Bob because of Edgic fundamentals. He appears too OTTP one-dimensional (!) and he is ignored for long stretches. However, even during the period when he is ignored, we are aware of him working in the background, although we are told he won't be taken to the end-game.
Fast forward to Day 39 and the last footage of the camp. They prepare to burn it down but it's a process unlike what we have seen before. Bob is obviously the organizer but there is this strange manipulation of Bob shown to involve others: calling them by name to participate, showing them where to light the fire, etc. And this after he has been quitely portrayed like this for the entire series. It looks like the intent now is to show the circle being completed with the camp scene in Day 1.
He is, perhaps, the first winner since Hatch to evoke a successful "keep me because I'm valuable around camp" strategy.
2. In the third episode, I highlight the unique editing choice of players shown to be discussing their tribe picks, for the first time in history. Not only that, they subtitle the conflict between Kenny and Matty over Kenny overlooking Bob. Not only that, they emphasize, from a number of angles, that Bob and Sugar are the last picked. And Probst asks rhetorically whether Bob is a diamond in the rough!
I note that scene for later, and, as the show evolves, I interpret it as significant because of the end-game conflict between Matty and Kenny. Even though it is Bob's name that is subtitled, I discount Bob because of Edgic fundamentals.
3. In the next two episodes, I note the extremely unusual language used by Probst on multiple occasions (directly, in recaps and in voice-overs) to editorialize against Jacquie being booted despite the move appearing to be a good one in reality.
I file away that note for later and, when Marcus gets booted, the slate is wiped clean and Fang gets the upper hand, I note that something is wrong. I note that had Fang won, they would have used the Jacquie boot as a plus for them, not as the 'death-wish- it was painted as. I think soemone from Kota still has a chance (even considering Corinne at one point) but I discount it because of Edgic fundamentals. Later, because of Edgic fundamentals, I decide that the editorial disapproval surrounding Jacquie's boot applies only in to those Fang who were responsible for it, not to those opposed to it, such as Matty and Sugar.
4. After Sugar gets rid of Ace because of Kenny's lie and Matty tells Sugar about it under the Star of David, that this is the pivotal scene of the season and that Sugar is being edited as a femme fatale/Eve who will eventually sacrifice her idol to redeem Matty, the anointed one. When Bob has his helicopter shot on the clifftop, I briefly think that the imagery is of thraditional 'God in his heaven' kind and that it is possible that the redemption might involve God the Father being the only one left in Eden but I surrender on the idea because of Edgic fundamentals.
5. After a major editing departure from the norm in showing a confessional immediately after an immunity challenge for the first time, I am more certain than ever that teamwork will be key to winning this game. This is where Probst tells Fang that, unless they work together, they'll be at TC every time and we are immediately shown a confessional by Crystal talking about me. I correctly eliminate Crystal from winners' contention and strengthen my opinion that Matty best represents this theme. I overlook Bob, the person most shown to represent this theme, because of Edgic fundamentals.
6. During the scene that turned to be the pivotal scene in the game where Sugar asks Bob to give Randy the fake idol, I note the manipulation of : A. Sugar's "I have...your best ineterests in mind", and B. the lingering last shot implying that Sugar is in Bob's debt. However, although I'm pretty sure this will come into play later, I discount Bob's winning chances because of Edgic fundamentals.
7. During the family visit, my view of Matty representing love makes me believe that Matty's is the significant edit from that episode. Everyone else's edit was appalling in that episode. Except for Bob whose God-like facilitation of everyone else getting to see their loved ones could have been interpreted as merely reporting but also seemed to have an additional layer to it. Sadly, only in hindsight. This was the only possible manipulation about Bob that I didn't see except in hindsight, so I can't blame Edgic fundamentals for leading me astray on that one.
What conclusion am I to draw from all this? That I seem to have correctly picked most of the editing clues along the way but was led astray because of Edgic fundamentals? I know FLF, Wallduck and TLS will probably tell me to get out of Edgic and start another thread somewhere but I had Kenny's serpent-tending edit pegged also, so I think I'm entitled to participate in the discussions.
I don't know. I think the main conclusion to be drawn is to keep looking for those editing anomalies. They're there for a reason. Most times.
They're just tentative ideas. Glad you like them, though.
