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Hi Sensei, even though I never read the original story, I've been keeping up with the re-write for a while now and I'm loving every bit of it. Usually I don't have too much to say about it that hasn't already been fleshed out by all the other posters in this thread, but I thought I'd just share my speculation going into the finale.
It seems that the finale will probably revolve around who wins immunity.
Assuming that the immunity pick is completely random, there is a three in four chance that Gretchen will be going home at four. Think about it- at the moment, no other player can really beat Gretchen in the final two. Alicia feels that her best chance is against John, and so does Vee. John is stuck with Alicia for now but no matter who he really thinks he has a better shot against, it certainly isn't Gretchen. All the other characters view her as an immunity threat, and there is no way they would let her get to the final three unless they absolutely had to. They also want to avoid an all out-purple-rock scenario if possible (see below). So if Gretchen loses immunity (3/4 chance), Gretchen is probablt going home. Simple as that.
Going with the more likely option, that Gretchen is out at four, that leaves a final three of Vee, John and Alicia. At this point John is pretty much in the final two no matter what happens. However, if he wins immunity he would be forced to betray one of his alliances- if he votes out Alicia, she will turn the jury against him, and if he votes out Vee, Alicia would probably win anayway (with probable votes from Colleen, Kathy, Rob and Gretchen at the very least). At this point, John's best chance is to throw immunity and let one of the other two win it and take him to the finals. That way, he has one less enemy on the jury, and a potential shot against previous-winner Vecepia without having betrayed Alicia and therefore without an anti-John jury. So depending on who wins the final immunity, the final two would either be John/Alicia (if Alicia wins) or John/Vecepia (If Vecepia or John wins the pick, assuming that picking John will lead to whatever is in John's best interests - a Vecepia win - and not necessarily to him winning the challenge). There is therefore a (1/3 X 3/4 = 1/4) chance of Alicia winning against John, and a (2/3 X 3/4 = 1/2) chance of a John/Vee showdown (which I won't even try to pick as it could conceivably go either way).
However, If Gretchen wins immunity at the final four (1/4 chance), things will get ugly, as either John, Vee or Alicia will be going home. Vee and Alicia, who both want to go up against John in the end, would have to vote for each other, seemingly forcing John to choose sides once again. However the choice would probably be out of his hands because Gretchen would vote for Vee (It seems that Gretchen wants to face Alicia in the end for two reasons- it would ensure that a more deserving (read: not Ahi) player won, and it would honour her final two deal as Gretchen seems unlikely to renege on her word). John would then need to choose between voting Vee out and forcing a tie by voting Alicia. He would probably rather vote out Vee than force the tie (which would either result in himself drawing the purple rock, Alicia being betrayed by him and turning the jury against him, or Vee going home anyway because of the rock).
So if Gretchen won immunity at four, Vee would go home, and the final three would be Gretchen, John and Alicia. Again, Gretchen would need to win immunity to make it to the finals as neither of the others would be stupid enough to take her. So there is a (1/4 X 1/3 = 1/12) chance of Gretchen winning and taking Alicia to lose in the finals. There is also a (1/4 X 2/3 = 1/6) chance of a John/Alicia final two that would probably result in Alicia winning (as above).
So in summary, with a random immunity chooser, Gretchen's chances of winning are pretty slim as she would need to win both immunities (a 1 in 12 chance) make it to the end, where she would take Alicia. Alicia's chances are 5 in 12, probably against John (1/6 + 1/4). And the chances of a John/Vecepia final two are 1 in 2, where both have an approximately equal chance at winning (Kathy and Alicia would probably vote John, Tina would probably vote Vee, but Frank, Rob, Colleen and Gretchen could all vote for either at this point so this one is up in the air).
Based on the above, the odds would be:
Gretchen - 11:1
Alicia - 7:5
John- 3:1
Vee- 3:1